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INTRODUCTION: High-frequency low-tidal-volume (HFLTV) ventilation during radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA) for paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF) has been shown to be superior to standard ventilation (SV) in terms of procedural efficiency, acute and long-term clinical outcomes. Our study aimed to compare ablation lesions characteristics utilizing HFLTV ventilation versus SV during RFCA of PAF. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients who underwent pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) for PAF between August 2022 and March 2023, using high-power short-duration ablation. Thirty-five patients underwent RFCA with HFLTV ventilation and were matched with another cohort of 35 patients who underwent RFCA with SV. Parameters including ablation duration, contact force (CF), impedance drop, and ablation index were extracted from the CARTONET database for each ablation lesion. RESULTS: A total of 70 patients were included (HFLTV = 35/2484 lesions, SV = 35/2830 lesions) in the analysis. There were no differences in baseline characteristics between the groups. While targeting the same ablation index, the HFLTV ventilation group demonstrated shorter average ablation duration per lesion (12.3 ± 5.0 vs. 15.4 ± 8.4 s, p < .001), higher average CF (17.0 ± 8.5 vs. 10.5 ± 4.6 g, p < .001), and greater impedance reduction (9.5 ± 4.6 vs. 7.7 ± 4.1 ohms, p < .001). HFLTV ventilation group also demonstrated shorter total procedural time (61.3 ± 25.5 vs. 90.8 ± 22.8 min, p < .001), ablation time (40.5 ± 18.6 vs. 65.8 ± 22.5 min, p < .001), and RF time (15.3 ± 4.8 vs. 22.9 ± 9.7 min, p < .001). CONCLUSION: HFLTV ventilation during PVI for PAF was associated with improved ablation lesion parameters and procedural efficiency compared to SV.
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BACKGROUND: Women respond more favorably to biventricular pacing (BIVP) than men. Sex differences in atrioventricular and interventricular conduction have been described in BIVP studies. Left bundle branch area pacing (LBBAP) offers advantages due to direct capture of the conduction system. We hypothesized that men could respond better to LBBAP than BIVP. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to describe the sex differences in response to LBBAP vs BIVP as the initial cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). METHODS: In this multicenter prospective registry, we included patients with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤35% and left bundle branch block or a left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40% with an expected right ventricular pacing exceeding 40% undergoing initial CRT with LBBAP or BIVP. The composite primary outcome was heart failure-related hospitalization and all-cause mortality. The primary safety outcome included all procedure-related complications. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in the primary outcome when comparing men and women receiving LBBAP (P = 0.46), whereas the primary outcome was less frequent in women in the BIVP group than men treated with BIVP (P = 0.03). The primary outcome occurred less frequently in men undergoing LBBAP (29.9%) compared to those treated with BIVP (46.5%) (P = 0.004). In women, the incidence of the primary endpoint was 24.14% in the LBBAP group and 36.2% in the BIVP group; however, this difference was not statistically significant (P = 0.23). Complication rates remained consistent across all groups. CONCLUSIONS: Men and women undergoing LBBAP for CRT had similar clinical outcomes. Men undergoing LBBAP showed a lower risk of heart failure-related hospitalizations and all-cause mortality compared to men undergoing BIVP, whereas there was no difference between LBBAP and BIVP in women.
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Bloqueo de Rama , Terapia de Resincronización Cardíaca , Insuficiencia Cardíaca , Humanos , Femenino , Masculino , Terapia de Resincronización Cardíaca/métodos , Anciano , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/terapia , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/fisiopatología , Estudios Prospectivos , Bloqueo de Rama/terapia , Bloqueo de Rama/fisiopatología , Persona de Mediana Edad , Factores Sexuales , Sistema de Registros , Resultado del Tratamiento , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Volumen Sistólico/fisiologíaRESUMEN
The population of patients with advanced heart failure continues to increase steadily as does the need for mechanical circulatory support. Combination therapy with left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) and cardiovascular implantable electronic devices (CIEDs) is unavoidable. CIED complications in patients with LVADs are common and often necessitate device system revision and transvenous lead extraction. Despite this, management recommendations are limited, and guidelines are lacking.
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Remoción de Dispositivos , Insuficiencia Cardíaca , Corazón Auxiliar , Humanos , Corazón Auxiliar/efectos adversos , Remoción de Dispositivos/métodos , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/terapia , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/cirugía , Desfibriladores Implantables/efectos adversosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Left bundle branch area pacing (LBBAP) has emerged as a physiological alternative pacing strategy to biventricular pacing (BIVP) in cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). We aimed to assess the impact of LBBAP vs. BIVP on all-cause mortality and heart failure (HF)-related hospitalization in patients undergoing CRT. METHODS: Studies comparing LBBAP and BIVP for CRT in patients with HF with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) were included. The coprimary outcomes were all-cause mortality and HF-related hospitalization. Secondary outcomes included procedural and fluoroscopy time, change in QRS duration, and change in LVEF. RESULTS: Thirteen studies (12 observational and 1 RCT, n = 3239; LBBAP = 1338 and BIVP = 1901) with a mean follow-up duration of 25.8 months were included. Compared to BIVP, LBBAP was associated with a significant absolute risk reduction of 3.2% in all-cause mortality (9.3% vs 12.5%, RR 0.7, 95% CI 0.57-0.86, p < 0.001) and an 8.2% reduction in HF-related hospitalization (11.3% vs 19.5%, RR 0.6, 95% CI 0.5-0.71, p < 0.00001). LBBAP also resulted in reductions in procedural time (mean weighted difference- 23.2 min, 95% CI - 42.9 to - 3.6, p = 0.02) and fluoroscopy time (- 8.6 min, 95% CI - 12.5 to - 4.7, p < 0.001) as well as a significant reduction in QRS duration (mean weighted difference:- 25.3 ms, 95% CI - 30.9 to - 19.8, p < 0.00001) and a greater improvement in LVEF of 5.1% (95% CI 4.4-5.8, p < 0.001) compared to BIVP in the studies that reported these outcomes. CONCLUSION: In this meta-analysis, LBBAP was associated with a significant reduction in all-cause mortality as well as HF-related hospitalization when compared to BIVP. Additional data from large RCTs is warranted to corroborate these promising findings.
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BACKGROUND: Left bundle branch pacing (LBBP) and left ventricular septal pacing (LVSP) are considered to be acceptable as LBBAP strategies. Differences in clinical outcomes between LBBP and LVSP are yet to be determined. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to compare the outcomes of LBBP vs LVSP vs BIVP for CRT. METHODS: In this prospective multicenter observational study, LBBP was compared with LVSP and BIVP in patients undergoing CRT. The primary composite outcome was freedom from heart failure (HF)-related hospitalization and all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included individual components of the primary outcome, postprocedural NYHA functional class, and electrocardiographic and echocardiographic parameters. RESULTS: A total of 415 patients were included (LBBP: n = 141; LVSP: n = 31; BIVP: n = 243), with a median follow-up of 399 days (Q1-Q3: 249.5-554.8 days). Freedom from the primary composite outcomes was 76.6% in the LBBP group and 48.4% in the LVSP group (HR: 1.37; 95% CI: 1.143-1.649; P = 0.001), driven by a 31.4% absolute increase in freedom from HF-related hospitalizations (83% vs 51.6%; HR: 3.55; 95% CI: 1.856-6.791; P < 0.001) without differences in all-cause mortality. LBBP was also associated with a higher freedom from the primary composite outcome compared with BIVP (HR: 1.43; 95% CI: 1.175-1.730; P < 0.001), with no difference between LVSP and BIVP. CONCLUSIONS: In patients undergoing CRT, LBBP was associated with improved outcomes compared with LVSP and BIVP, while outcomes between BIVP and LVSP are similar.
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Terapia de Resincronización Cardíaca , Insuficiencia Cardíaca , Humanos , Terapia de Resincronización Cardíaca/efectos adversos , Estudios Prospectivos , Sistema de Conducción Cardíaco , Ventrículos Cardíacos , ElectrocardiografíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Epicardial access (EA) has emerged as an increasingly important approach for the treatment of ventricular arrhythmias and to perform other interventional cardiology procedures. EA is frequently underutilized because the current approach is challenging and carries a high risk of life-threatening complications. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine the efficacy and safety of the SAFER (Sustained Apnea for Epicardial Access With Right Ventriculography) epicardial approach. METHODS: Consecutive patients who underwent EA with the SAFER technique were included in this multicenter study. The primary efficacy outcome was the successful achievement of EA. The primary safety outcomes included right ventricular (RV) perforation, major hemorrhagic pericardial effusion (HPE), and bleeding requiring surgical intervention. Secondary outcomes included procedural characteristics and any complications. Our results were compared with those from previous studies describing other EA techniques to assess differences in outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 105 patients undergoing EA with the SAFER approach from June 2021 to February 2023 were included. EA was used for ventricular tachycardia ablation in 98 patients (93.4%), left atrial appendage closure in 6 patients (5.7%), and phrenic nerve displacement in 1 patient (0.9%). EA was successful in all subjects (100%). The median time to EA was 7 minutes (IQR: 5-14 minutes). No cases of RV perforation, HPE, or need of surgical intervention were observed in this cohort. Comparing our results with previous studies about EA, the SAFER epicardial approach resulted in a significant reduction in major pericardial bleeding. CONCLUSIONS: The SAFER epicardial approach is a simple, efficient, effective, and low-cost technique easily reproducible across multiple centers. It is associated with lower complication rates than previously reported techniques for EA.
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Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos , Lesiones Cardíacas , Taquicardia Ventricular , Humanos , Taquicardia Ventricular/cirugía , Apnea , Arritmias Cardíacas , Pericardio/diagnóstico por imagen , Pericardio/cirugía , Procedimientos Quirúrgicos Cardíacos/métodos , HemorragiaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Left bundle branch area pacing (LBBAP) for cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is an alternative to biventricular pacing (BiVp). OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to compare the outcomes between LBBAP and BiVp as an initial implant strategy for CRT. METHODS: In this prospective multicenter, observational, nonrandomized study, first-time CRT implant recipients with LBBAP or BiVp were included. The primary efficacy outcome was a composite of heart failure (HF)-related hospitalization and all-cause mortality. The primary safety outcomes were acute and long-term complications. Secondary outcomes included postprocedural New York Heart Association functional class and electrocardiographic and echocardiographic parameters. RESULTS: A total of 371 patients (median follow-up of 340 days [IQR: 206-477 days]) were included. The primary efficacy outcome occurred in 24.2% in the LBBAP vs 42.4% in the BiVp (HR: 0.621 [95% CI: 0.415-0.93]; P = 0.021) group, driven by a reduction in HF-related hospitalizations (22.6% vs 39.5%; HR: 0.607 [95% CI: 0.397-0.927]; P = 0.021) without significant difference in all-cause mortality (5.5% vs 11.9%; P = 0.19) or differences in long-term complications (LBBAP: 9.4% vs BiVp: 15.2%; P = 0.146). LBBAP resulted in shorter procedural (95 minutes [IQR: 65-120 minutes] vs 129 minutes [IQR: 103-162 minutes]; P < 0.001) and fluoroscopy times (12 minutes [IQR: 7.4-21.1 minutes] vs 21.7 minutes [IQR: 14.3-30 minutes]; P < 0.001), shorter QRS duration (123.7 ± 18 milliseconds vs 149.3 ± 29.1 milliseconds; P < 0.001), and higher postprocedural left ventricular ejection fraction (34.1% ± 12.5% vs 31.4% ± 10.8%; P = 0.041). CONCLUSIONS: LBBAP as an initial CRT strategy resulted in a lower risk of HF-related hospitalizations compared to BiVp. A reduction in procedural and fluoroscopy times, shorter paced QRS duration, and improvements in left ventricular ejection fraction compared with BiVp were observed.
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Terapia de Resincronización Cardíaca , Insuficiencia Cardíaca , Humanos , Terapia de Resincronización Cardíaca/efectos adversos , Terapia de Resincronización Cardíaca/métodos , Volumen Sistólico , Estudios Prospectivos , Función Ventricular Izquierda , Resultado del Tratamiento , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/terapiaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Guidelines have proposed that atrial fibrillation (AF) can occur as an isolated event, particularly when precipitated by a secondary, or reversible, condition. However, knowledge of long-term AF outcomes after diagnosis during a secondary precipitant is limited. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 1409 Framingham Heart Study participants with new-onset AF, we examined associations between first-detected AF episodes occurring with and without a secondary precipitant and both long-term AF recurrence and morbidity. We selected secondary precipitants based on guidelines (surgery, infection, acute myocardial infarction, thyrotoxicosis, acute alcohol consumption, acute pericardial disease, pulmonary embolism, or other acute pulmonary disease). Among 439 patients (31%) with AF diagnosed during a secondary precipitant, cardiothoracic surgery (n=131 [30%]), infection (n=102 [23%]), noncardiothoracic surgery (n=87 [20%]), and acute myocardial infarction (n=78 [18%]) were most common. AF recurred in 544 of 846 eligible individuals without permanent AF (5-, 10-, and 15-year recurrences of 42%, 56%, and 62% with versus 59%, 69%, and 71% without secondary precipitants; multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio, 0.65 [95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.78]). Stroke risk (n=209/1262 at risk; hazard ratio, 1.13 [95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.57]) and mortality (n=1098/1409 at risk; hazard ratio, 1.00 [95% confidence interval, 0.87-1.15]) were similar between those with and without secondary precipitants, although heart failure risk was reduced (n=294/1107 at risk; hazard ratio, 0.74 [95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.97]). CONCLUSIONS: AF recurs in most individuals, including those diagnosed with secondary precipitants. Long-term AF-related stroke and mortality risks were similar between individuals with and without secondary AF precipitants. Future studies may determine whether increased arrhythmia surveillance or adherence to general AF management principles in patients with reversible AF precipitants will reduce morbidity.
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Fibrilación Atrial/epidemiología , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Intoxicación Alcohólica/complicaciones , Fibrilación Atrial/tratamiento farmacológico , Fibrilación Atrial/etiología , Femenino , Cardiopatías/complicaciones , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/epidemiología , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/etiología , Humanos , Infecciones/complicaciones , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Complicaciones Posoperatorias/epidemiología , Guías de Práctica Clínica como Asunto , Pronóstico , Embolia Pulmonar/complicaciones , Recurrencia , Accidente Cerebrovascular/epidemiología , Análisis de Supervivencia , Tirotoxicosis/complicaciones , Resultado del TratamientoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: In the absence of overt structural heart disease, most left ventricular outflow tract ventricular tachycardias (VTs) have a focal origin and are benign. We hypothesized that multiple morphologies (MMs) of inducible left ventricular outflow tract VT may indicate a scar-related VT that can mimic idiopathic VT. METHODS AND RESULTS: Of 54 consecutive patients referred for ablation of sustained outflow tract VT without overt structural heart disease, 24 had left ventricular outflow tract VT, 10 had MM VT, and 14 had a single VT (SM). The MM group were older (70.3±4.3 versus 53.9±15.9 years; P=0.004), had more hypertension (100% versus 29%; P=0.0006), and had longer PR intervals and QRS durations compared with the SM group. In contrast to the SM group, the MM group VTs had features consistent with reentry, including induction by programmed stimulation without isoproterenol, entrainment in some, and abnormal electrograms in the periaortic area. Periaortic region voltages suggested scar in the MM group, but not in the SM group. MRI in 2 MM patients was consistent with scar, but not in 10 SM patients. Longer radiofrequency applications were required in the MM group than in the SM group. At a median follow-up of 9.7 (3.0-32.0) months, recurrences tended to be more frequent in the MM group than in the SM group (70% versus 22%; P=0.07). CONCLUSIONS: VTs from small regions of periaortic scar can mimic idiopathic VT but are suggested by multiple VT morphologies and are more difficult to ablate. Whether these patients are at greater risk, as feared for other scar-related VTs, warrants further study.
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Cicatriz/complicaciones , Sistema de Conducción Cardíaco/fisiopatología , Taquicardia Reciprocante/etiología , Taquicardia Ventricular/etiología , Potenciales de Acción , Adulto , Anciano , Estimulación Cardíaca Artificial , Ablación por Catéter , Cicatriz/diagnóstico , Cicatriz/fisiopatología , Técnicas Electrofisiológicas Cardíacas , Femenino , Sistema de Conducción Cardíaco/cirugía , Humanos , Cinética , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Valor Predictivo de las Pruebas , Estudios Retrospectivos , Factores de Riesgo , Taquicardia Reciprocante/diagnóstico , Taquicardia Reciprocante/fisiopatología , Taquicardia Reciprocante/cirugía , Taquicardia Ventricular/diagnóstico , Taquicardia Ventricular/fisiopatología , Taquicardia Ventricular/cirugía , Resultado del Tratamiento , Imagen de Colorante Sensible al VoltajeRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Good catheter-tissue contact force (CF) is critical for transmural and durable lesion formation during radiofrequency (RF) ablation but is difficult to assess in clinical practice. Tissue heating during RF application results in an impedance decrease at the catheter tip. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to correlate achieved CF and initial impedance decreases during atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation. METHODS: We correlated achieved CF and initial impedance decreases in patients undergoing ablation for AF with two novel open-irrigated CF-sensing RF catheters (Biosense Webster SmartTouch, n = 647 RF applications; and Endosense TactiCath, n = 637 RF applications). We then compared those impedance decreases to 691 RF applications with a standard open-irrigated RF catheter (Biosense Webster ThermoCool). RESULTS: When RF applications with the CF-sensing catheters were analyzed according to an achieved average CF <5 g, 5-10 g, 10-20 g, and >20 g, the initial impedance decreases during ablation were larger with greater CF. Corresponding median values at 20 seconds were 5 Ω (interquartile range [IQR] 2-7), 8 Ω (4-11), 10 Ω (7-16), and 14 Ω (10-19) with the SmartTouch and n/a, 4 Ω (0-10), 8 Ω (5-12), and 13 Ω (8-18) with the TactiCath (P <.001 between categories for both catheters). When RF applications with the SmartTouch (CF-sensing catheter, median achieved CF 12 g) and ThermoCool (standard catheter) were compared, the initial impedance decrease was significantly greater in the CF-sensing group with median decreases of 10 Ω (6-14 Ω) vs 5 Ω (2-10 Ω) at 20 seconds (P <.001 between catheters). CONCLUSION: The initial impedance decrease during RF applications in AF ablations is larger when greater catheter contact is achieved. Monitoring of the initial impedance decrease is a widely available indicator of catheter contact and may help to improve formation of durable ablation lesions.
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Ablación por Catéter/instrumentación , Ablación por Catéter/métodos , Catéteres , Anciano , Fibrilación Atrial/cirugía , Diseño de Equipo , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana EdadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a strong risk factor for heart failure (HF); HF onset in patients with AF is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Risk factors that predict HF in individuals with AF in the community are not well established. METHODS AND RESULTS: We examined clinical variables related to the 10-year incidence of HF in 725 individuals (mean 73.3 years, 45% women) with documented AF in the Framingham Heart Study. Event rates for incident HF (n = 161, 48% in women) were comparable in women (4.30 per 100 person-years) and men (3.34 per 100 person-years). Age, body mass index, ECG LV hypertrophy, diabetes, significant murmur, and history of myocardial infarction were positively associated with incident HF in multivariable models (C-statistic 0.71; 95% confidence interval 0.67-0.75). We developed a risk algorithm for estimating absolute risk of HF in AF patients with good model fit and calibration (adjusted calibration χ2 statistic 7.29; P(χ2) = 0.61). Applying the algorithm, 47.6% of HF events occurred in the top tertile in men compared with 13.1% in the bottom tertile, and 58.4% in women in the upper tertile compared with 18.2% in the lowest category. For HF type, women had a non-significantly higher incidence of HF with preserved EF compared with men. CONCLUSIONS: We describe advancing age, LV hypertrophy, body mass index, diabetes, significant heart murmur, and history of myocardial infarction as clinical predictors of incident HF in individuals with AF. A risk algorithm may help identify individuals with AF at high risk of developing HF.
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Fibrilación Atrial/epidemiología , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/epidemiología , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Adulto , Factores de Edad , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Algoritmos , Índice de Masa Corporal , Estudios de Cohortes , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiología , Femenino , Soplos Cardíacos/epidemiología , Humanos , Hipertrofia Ventricular Izquierda/epidemiología , Incidencia , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Análisis Multivariante , Infarto del Miocardio/epidemiología , Sobrepeso/epidemiología , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Factores de RiesgoRESUMEN
The objective of this study was to determine whether systemic inflammatory and oxidative stress marker concentrations correlate with pericardial and intrathoracic fat volumes. Participants of the Framingham Offspring Study (n = 1,175, 53% women, mean age 59 +/- 9 years) had pericardial and intrathoracic fat volumes assessed by multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) scans, and provided fasting blood and urine samples to measure concentrations of 14 inflammatory markers: C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), CD40 ligand, fibrinogen, intracellular adhesion molecule-1, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) activity and mass, myeloperoxidase, osteoprotegerin, P-selectin, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, tumor necrosis factor receptor-2, and urinary isoprostanes. Multivariable linear regression models were used to determine the association of log-transformed inflammatory marker concentrations with fat volumes, using fat volume as the dependent variable. Due to smaller sample sizes, models were rerun after adding urinary isoprostanes (n = 961) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (n = 813) to the marker panel. Upon backward elimination, four of the biomarkers correlated positively with each fat depot: CRP (P < 0.0001 for each fat depot), interleukin-6 (P < 0.05 for each fat depot), MCP-1 (P < 0.01 for each fat depot), and urinary isoprostanes (P < 0.01 for pericardial fat; P < 0.001 for intrathoracic fat). Even after adjusting for BMI, waist circumference (WC), and abdominal visceral fat, CRP (P = 0.0001) and urinary isoprostanes (P = 0.02) demonstrated significant positive associations with intrathoracic fat, but not with pericardial fat. Multiple markers of inflammation and oxidative stress correlated with pericardial and intrathoracic fat volumes, extending the known association between regional adiposity and inflammation and oxidative stress.
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Tejido Adiposo Blanco/patología , Inflamación/metabolismo , Pericardio/patología , Tejido Adiposo Blanco/diagnóstico por imagen , Tejido Adiposo Blanco/metabolismo , Adulto , Anciano , Biomarcadores/metabolismo , Índice de Masa Corporal , Femenino , Humanos , Inflamación/diagnóstico por imagen , Inflamación/patología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Tamaño de los Órganos , Estrés Oxidativo , Selección de Paciente , Pericardio/diagnóstico por imagen , Pericardio/metabolismo , Radiografía , Análisis de Regresión , Factores Sexuales , Circunferencia de la CinturaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation contributes to substantial increases in morbidity and mortality. We aimed to develop a risk score to predict individuals' absolute risk of developing the condition, and to provide a framework for researchers to assess new risk markers. METHODS: We assessed 4764 participants in the Framingham Heart Study from 8044 examinations (55% women, 45-95 years of age) undertaken between June, 1968, and September, 1987. Thereafter, participants were monitored for the first event of atrial fibrillation for a maximum of 10 years. Multivariable Cox regression identified clinical risk factors associated with development of atrial fibrillation in 10 years. Secondary analyses incorporated routine echocardiographic measurements (5152 participants, 7156 examinations) to reclassify the risk of atrial fibrillation and to assess whether these measurements improved risk prediction. FINDINGS: 457 (10%) of the 4764 participants developed atrial fibrillation. Age, sex, body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, PR interval, clinically significant cardiac murmur, and heart failure were associated with atrial fibrillation and incorporated in a risk score (p<0.05, except body-mass index p=0.08), clinical model C statistic 0.78 (95% CI 0.76-0.80). Risk of atrial fibrillation in 10 years varied with age: more than 15% risk was recorded in 53 (1%) participants younger than 65 years, compared with 783 (27%) older than 65 years. Additional incorporation of echocardiographic measurements to enhance the risk prediction model only slightly improved the C statistic from 0.78 (95% CI 0.75-0.80) to 0.79 (0.77-0.82), p=0.005. Echocardiographic measurements did not improve risk reclassification (p=0.18). INTERPRETATION: From clinical factors readily accessible in primary care, our risk score could help to identify risk of atrial fibrillation for individuals in the community, assess technologies or markers for improvement of risk prediction, and target high-risk individuals for preventive measures.