Prediction of upcoming global infection burden of influenza seasons after relaxation of public health and social measures during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The transmission dynamics of influenza were affected by public health and social measures (PHSMs) implemented globally since early 2020 to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to assess the effect of COVID-19 PHSMs on the transmissibility of influenza viruses and to predict upcoming influenza epidemics. METHODS: For this modelling study, we used surveillance data on influenza virus activity for 11 different locations and countries in 2017-22. We implemented a data-driven mechanistic predictive modelling framework to predict future influenza seasons on the basis of pre-COVID-19 dynamics and the effect of PHSMs during the COVID-19 pandemic. We simulated the potential excess burden of upcoming influenza epidemics in terms of fold rise in peak magnitude and epidemic size compared with pre-COVID-19 levels. We also examined how a proactive influenza vaccination programme could mitigate this effect. FINDINGS: We estimated that COVID-19 PHSMs reduced influenza transmissibility by a maximum of 17·3% (95% CI 13·3-21·4) to 40·6% (35·2-45·9) and attack rate by 5·1% (1·5-7·2) to 24·8% (20·8-27·5) in the 2019-20 influenza season. We estimated a 10-60% increase in the population susceptibility for influenza, which might lead to a maximum of 1-5-fold rise in peak magnitude and 1-4-fold rise in epidemic size for the upcoming 2022-23 influenza season across locations, with a significantly higher fold rise in Singapore and Taiwan. The infection burden could be mitigated by additional proactive one-off influenza vaccination programmes. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest the potential for substantial increases in infection burden in upcoming influenza seasons across the globe. Strengthening influenza vaccination programmes is the best preventive measure to reduce the effect of influenza virus infections in the community. FUNDING: Health and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong.

Changes of antibiotic prescribing pattern and its resistance to E. Coli in South Korea: a 12-year retrospective observational study.

In the present study, we investigated the pattern of changes in antibiotic prescription and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Escherichia coli in South Korea between 2007 and 2018. We collected data related to antibiotic prescription and AMR in E. coli from the national surveillance system. We used the Mann-Kendall test and Spearman's correlation to identify the trends of antibiotic prescription and AMR in E. coli and to examine the relationship between them, respectively. Although we noted a significant decreasing trend of ampicillin and gentamicin prescriptions in all medical institutions, we identified a higher level of AMR in long-term care facilities than in other medical institutions. We did not identify a significant positive correlation between ampicillin and gentamicin prescriptions and their resistance in E. coli. However, we found a significant positive correlation between cefotaxime prescription and its resistance in E. coli in hospitals, long-term care facilities, and clinics. Our results strongly suggest that long-term care facilities in South Korea have the potential to sustain AMR epidemics and that more efforts are needed to curb AMR in E. coli. Further epidemiological studies using enhanced AMR surveillance are warranted.

Ghrelin in Alzheimer's disease: Pathologic roles and therapeutic implications.

Ghrelin, which has many important physiological roles, such as stimulating food intake, regulating energy homeostasis, and releasing insulin, has recently been studied for its roles in a diverse range of neurological disorders. Despite the several functions of ghrelin in the central nervous system, whether it works as a therapeutic agent for neurological dysfunction has been unclear. Altered levels and various roles of ghrelin have been reported in Alzheimer's disease (AD), which is characterized by the accumulation of misfolded proteins resulting in synaptic loss and cognitive decline. Interestingly, treatment with ghrelin or with the agonist of ghrelin receptor showed attenuation in several cases of AD-related pathology. These findings suggest the potential therapeutic implications of ghrelin in the pathogenesis of AD. In the present review, we summarized the roles of ghrelin in AD pathogenesis, amyloid beta (Aß) homeostasis, tau hyperphosphorylation, neuroinflammation, mitochondrial deficit, synaptic dysfunction and cognitive impairment. The findings from this review suggest that ghrelin has a novel therapeutic potential for AD treatment. Thus, rigorously designed studies are needed to establish an effective AD-modifying strategy.