Total knee arthroplasty: does ultra-early physical therapy improve functional outcomes and reduce length of stay? A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) Society recommends that after total knee arthroplasty (TKA), patients should be mobilized early. However, there is no consensus on how early physical therapy should be commenced. We aim to investigate whether ultra-early physical therapy (< 12 h postoperatively) leads to better outcomes. METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study of 569 patients who underwent primary TKA from August 2017 to December 2019 at our institution. We compared patients who had undergone physical therapy either within 24 h or 24-48 h after TKA. Further subgroup analysis was performed on the < 24 h group, comparing those who had undergone PT within 12 h and within 12-24 h. The outcomes analyzed include the Oxford Knee Scoring System score, Knee Society Scores, range of motion (ROM), length of stay (LOS) and ambulatory distance on discharge. A student's t test, chi-squared test or Fisher's exact test was used where appropriate, to determine statistical significance of our findings. RESULTS: LOS in the < 24 h group was shorter compared to the 24-48 h group (4.87 vs. 5.34 days, p = 0.002). Subgroup analysis showed that LOS was shorter in the ultra-early PT (< 12 h) group compared to the early PT (12-24 h) group (4.75 vs. 4.96 days, p = 0.009). At 3 months postoperatively, there was no significant difference in ROM, ambulatory distance or functional scores between the < 24 h group and 24-48 h group, or on subgroup analysis of the < 24 h group. CONCLUSION: Patients who underwent physical therapy within 24 h had a shorter length of stay compared to the 24-48 h group. On subgroup analysis, ultra-early (< 12 h) physical therapy correlated with a shorter length of stay compared to the 12-24 h group (4.75 vs. 4.96 days, p = 0.009) - however, the difference is small and unlikely to be clinically significant. Ultra-early (< 12 h) physical therapy does not confer additional benefit in terms of functional scores, ROM or ambulatory distance. These findings reinforce the importance of early physical therapy after TKA in facilitating earlier patient discharge.

Associated Demographic Factors for the Recurrence and Prognosis of Stroke Patients within a Multi-Ethnic Asian Population.

OBJECTIVE: There is a paucity of studies investigating the outcomes amongst Asian stroke patients. Identifying subgroups of stroke patients at risk of poorer outcomes could identify patients who would benefit from targeted interventions. Therefore, the aim of this study was to identify which ischemic stroke patients at high risk of recurrent events and mortality. METHODS: This cohort study adhered to STrengthening the Reporting of OBservational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) guidelines. We obtained data from the Singapore Stroke Registry (SSR) from 2005 to 2016 and cross referenced to the Death Registry, Myocardial Infarction Registry. Outcome measures included recurrent stroke, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), all-cause and stroke-related deaths. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were performed to determine risk factors for recurrent stroke, AMI, all-cause and stroke-related deaths. RESULTS: A total of 64,915 patients (6,705 young, and 58,210 older) were included in our analysis. Older stroke patients were found to have an increased risk of recurrent stroke (HR = 1.21, 95%CI: 1.12-1.30), AMI (HR = 1.73, 95%CI: 1.54-1.95), all-cause death (HR = 2.49, 95%CI: 2.34-2.64) and stroke-related death (HR = 176, 95%CI: 1.61-1.92). Amongst young stroke patients, males were at increased risk for recurrent stroke (HR = 1.18, 95%CI: 1.01-1.39) and AMI (HR = 1.41, 95%CI: 1.08-1.83), but at reduced risk for all-cause (HR = 0.78, 95%CI: 0.69-0.89) and stroke-related death (HR = 0.79, 95%CI: 0.67-0.94). Ethnicity appeared to influence outcomes, with Malay patients at increased risk of recurrent stroke (HR = 1.37, 95%CI: 1.14-1.65), AMI (HR = 2.45, 95%CI: 1.87-3.22), all-cause (HR = 1.43, 95%CI: 1.24-1.66) and stroke-related deaths (HR = 1.34, 95%CI: 1.09-1.64). Indian patients were also at increased risk of AMI (HR = 1.96, 95%CI: 1.41-2.72). Similar findings were seen amongst the older stroke patients. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that older stroke patients are at risk of poorer outcomes. Within the young stroke population specifically, males were predisposed to recurrent stroke and AMI but were protected against all-cause and stroke-related deaths. Males were also at reduced risk of all-cause and stroke-related deaths in the older stroke population. Additionally, Malay and Indian patients experience poorer outcomes after first stroke. Further optimisation of risk factors targeting these high-priority populations are needed to achieve high quality care.

Percutaneous cholecystostomy in acute complicated versus uncomplicated cholecystitis; is there a difference in outcomes? A single-center experience.

BACKGROUND: Percutaneous cholecystostomy (PC) is a therapeutic intervention for acute cholecystitis. The benefits of cholecystostomy have been demonstrated in the medical literature, with up to 90% of acute cholecystitis cases shown to resolve postoperatively, and only 40% of patients subsequently undergoing an interval cholecystectomy. PURPOSE: To compare the survival outcomes between acute complicated and uncomplicated cholecystitis in patients undergoing PC as an initial intervention, as there is a paucity of evidence in the literature on this perspective. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A retrospective search was conducted of all patients who underwent PC for acute cholecystitis between August 2016 and December 2020 at a tertiary institution. A total of 100 patients were included in this study. RESULTS: The outcome, in the form of 30-day mortality, 90-day mortality, being alive after six months, and reintervention, was compared between complicated and uncomplicated cases using the chi-square test or Fisher's exact test. There was no statistically significant difference in any of the compared outcomes. The only variable that showed a statistically significant association with the risk of mortality was acute kidney injury (AKI) at admission. Patients who had stage 1, 2, or 3 AKI had a higher hazard for mortality as compared to patients with no kidney disease. CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrate that PC is a safe and effective procedure. Mortality is not affected by the presence of complications. The results have, however, highlighted the importance of recognizing and treating AKI, an independent risk factor affecting mortality.

Navigating drug use, cessation, and recovery: a retrospective case notes review among sexual minority men at a community-based service in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: In Singapore, where drug use is a highly stigmatized and criminalized issue, there is limited understanding of the challenges faced by individuals, particularly sexual minority men, in their journey towards recovery from substance dependence or addiction. This qualitative study aimed to investigate the driving forces behind drug use, the factors contributing to drug cessation, and the elements influencing the recovery process. METHODS: Data were extracted from clinical records provided by  The Greenhouse Community Services Limited between January 2020 to May 2022. These records encompassed information from four distinct forms: the intake assessment, progress notes, case closing summary, and the care plan review. Thematic analysis was employed to identify and categorize recurring themes within the data. RESULTS: Data from beneficiaries (n = 125) were analyzed and yielded a series of themes related to facilitators of drug use, motivations to cease drug use, and managing one's ongoing recovery. Within the facilitators of drug use, two sub-themes were identified: (a) addressing trauma and triggers and (b) managing emotions. Additionally, managing one's recovery was marked by four significant sub-themes: (a) uncovering personal identities, (b) losing motivation and drive, (c) overcoming obstacles, and (d) preparing for aftercare. CONCLUSIONS: The study contributes valuable insights into the dynamics of ongoing recovery management, offering potential avenues for interventions that could enhance support for individuals in their journey to overcome substance dependence. Enhancing psychoeducation and fostering peer support have the potential to facilitate the recovery process. Clearly, a holistic approach is needed to address these complex issues that cuts across our societies.

Shorter length of stay and significant cost savings with ambulatory surgery primary unilateral total knee arthroplasty in Asians using enhanced recovery protocols.

Introduction: Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) in total knee arthroplasty (TKA) has reduced the length of stay (LOS) and cost of TKA in the Western population. Asians had been identified to be at higher odds of non-home discharge following TKA due to cultural differences. The efficacy of ERAS in TKA for Asian patients is less known. We aimed to investigate the efficacy of ERAS in reducing the LOS, transition to ambulatory surgery, improving home discharges, and reducing cost in an Asian population following TKA. Methods: Retrospective analysis was performed on 634 TKA patients in 2017 (pre- ERAS) and 584 TKA patients who had undergone ERAS in 2022 in a tertiary hospital. Results: Patients in 2022 (ERAS) were older (69 ± 7 vs. 68 ± 7 years old, p < 0.001) and had a higher proportion of patients with poorer function (p < 0.001). The LOS reduced from 5.4 days (95% CI:5.2-5.6) to 2.9 days (95% CI:2.7-3.2) (p < 0.001) with about 49 % of patients transitioning to ambulatory surgery and having a LOS of 1.4 days (95 %CI:1.3-1.5). The proportion of patients being discharged home in 2022 (78.9 %) was higher compared to 2017 (62.2 %) (p < 0.001). This saved the hospital 1817.4 inpatient ward bed days, which translated to S$2,124,540.60 of cost saving in a year, and up to S$2397.28 for the individual patient. Conclusion: ERAS after TKA was able to safely achieve LOS comparable to the western population and allowed transition to ambulatory knee replacement in the Asian population. Consequently, this led to higher proportion of home discharges and achieved significant cost saving and hospital bed days.

Impact of COVID-19 national response on primary care utilisation in Singapore: an interrupted time-series analysis.

Since the start of the pandemic, many national responses, such as nationwide lockdowns, have been implemented to curb the spread of COVID-19. We aim to assess the impact of Singapore's national responses on primary care utilisation. We performed an interrupted time series using acute and chronic primary care data of 3 168 578 visits between 1 September 2019 and 31 August 2020 over four periods: before any measures were put in place, during Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON) Orange, when Circuit Breaker was instituted, and when Circuit Breaker was lifted. We found significant mean reductions in acute and chronic primary care visits immediately following DORSCON Orange and Circuit Breaker. DORSCON Orange was associated with - 2020 mean daily visits (95% CI - 2890 to - 1150). Circuit Breaker was associated with a further - 2510 mean daily visits (95% CI - 3660 to - 1360). Primary care utilisation for acute visits remained below baseline levels even after the Circuit Breaker was lifted. These significant reductions were observed in both acute and chronic visits, with acute visits experiencing a steeper drop during DORSCON Orange. Understanding the impact of COVID-19 measures on primary care utilisation will be useful for future public health planning.

Myocardial Aging among a Population-Based Cohort Is Associated with Adverse Cardiovascular Outcomes and Sex-Specific Differences among Older Adults.

INTRODUCTION: Despite growing calls to tackle aging-related cardiovascular disease (CVD), the role of detecting early diastolic dysfunction such as those observed in aging, prior to clinical disease, is of unclear clinical benefit. METHODS: Myocardial function determined by echocardiography was examined in association with incident cardiovascular outcomes or all-cause death by Cox proportional hazards model. Sex-based differences in outcomes were included. RESULTS: A total of 956 participants (mean age 63 ± 12.9 years, n = 424 males [44%]) were categorized based on mitral peak early-to-late diastolic filling velocity (E/A) ratios: E/A <0.8 (28%), E/A 0.8-1.2 (39%), E/A (29%), E/A >2.0 (4%). Incidence rate (IR) for non-fatal cardiovascular outcomes was 2.83 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 2.24-3.56) and 0.45 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 0.26-0.80) for all-cause death. Event-free survival from non-fatal cardiovascular outcomes was significantly different among E/A categories (log-rank p = 0.0269). E/A <0.8 (HR 1.80, 95% CI: 1.031, 3.14, p = 0.039) was associated with non-fatal cardiovascular outcomes. Among men, IR for cardiovascular outcomes was 3.56 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 2.62-4.84) and 0.75 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 0.39-1.44) for all-cause death. Among women, IR for cardiovascular outcomes was 2.22 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 1.56-3.16) and 0.21 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 0.067-0.64) for all-cause death. For E/A <0.8 category, women had significantly higher risks of non-fatal cardiovascular outcomes, compared to E/A 0.8-1.2 category (HR 2.49, 95% CI: 1.18, 5.23, p = 0.017). CONCLUSION: Myocardial aging was an independent predictor of cardiovascular outcomes in community-dwelling older adults prior to clinical CVD. Impaired myocardial relaxation was prevalent in both sexes but associated with worse outcomes in women, suggestive of sex differences in age-related biology.

Long-term Cardiovascular, Cerebrovascular, and Other Thrombotic Complications in COVID-19 Survivors: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Growing evidence suggests that some coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) survivors experience a wide range of long-term postacute sequelae. We examined the postacute risk and burden of new-incident cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and other thrombotic complications after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in a highly vaccinated multiethnic Southeast Asian population, during Delta predominance. METHODS: This cohort study used national testing and healthcare claims databases in Singapore to build a cohort of individuals who had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test between 1 September and 30 November 2021 when Delta predominated community transmission. Concurrently, we constructed a test-negative control group by enrolling individuals between 13 April 2020 and 31 December 2022 with no evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Participants in both groups were followed up for a median of 300 days. We estimated risks of new-incident cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and other thrombotic complications using doubly robust competing-risks survival analysis. Risks were reported using 2 measures: hazard ratio (HR) and excess burden (EB) with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: We included 106 012 infected cases and 1 684 085 test-negative controls. Compared with the control group, individuals with COVID-19 exhibited increased risk (HR, 1.157 [1.069-1.252]) and excess burden (EB, 0.70 [.53-.88]) of new-incident cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications. Risks decreased in a graded fashion for fully vaccinated (HR, 1.11 [1.02-1.22]) and boosted (HR, 1.10 [.92-1.32]) individuals. Conversely, risks and burdens of subsequent cardiovascular/cerebrovascular complications increased for hospitalized and severe COVID-19 cases (compared to nonhospitalized cases). CONCLUSIONS: Increased risks and excess burdens of new-incident cardiovascular/cerebrovascular complications were reported among infected individuals; risks can be attenuated with vaccination and boosting.

Empiric treatment with aspirin and ticagrelor is the most cost-effective strategy in patients with minor stroke or transient ischemic attack.

BACKGROUND: Patients with minor ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attacks (TIAs) are often treated with dual antiplatelet therapy regimens as part of secondary stroke prevention. Clopidogrel, an antiplatelet used in these regimens, is metabolized into its active form by the CYP2C19 enzyme. Patients with loss of function (LOF) mutations in CYP2C19 are at risk for poorer secondary outcomes when prescribed clopidogrel. AIMS: We aimed to determine the cost-effectiveness of three different treatment antiplatelet regimens in ischemic stroke populations with minor strokes or TIAs and how these treatment regimens are influenced by the LOF prevalence in the population. METHODS: Markov models were developed to look at the cost-effectiveness of empiric treatment with aspirin and clopidogrel versus empiric treatment with aspirin and ticagrelor, versus genotype-guided therapy for either 21 or 30 days. Effect ratios were obtained from the literature, and incidence rates and costs were obtained from the national data published by the Singapore Ministry of Health. The primary endpoints were the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS: Empiric treatment with aspirin and ticagrelor was the most cost-effective treatment. Genotype-guided therapy was more cost-effective than empiric aspirin and clopidogrel if the LOF was above 48%. Empiric ticagrelor and aspirin was cost saving when compared to genotype-guided therapy. Results in models of dual antiplatelet therapy for 30 days were similar. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that in patients with minor stroke and TIA planned for dual antiplatelet regimens, empiric ticagrelor and aspirin is the most cost-effective treatment regimen. If ticagrelor is not available, genotype-guided therapy is the most cost-effective treatment regimen if the LOF prevalence in the population is more than 48%.

Long-term neuropsychiatric sequelae of Delta versus Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection.

OBJECTIVES: Studies have reported increased rates of long-term neuropsychiatric sequelae after SARS-CoV-2 infection using electronic health-record (EHR) data; however, the majority were conducted before Omicron and booster rollout. We estimated the long-term risks and excess burdens of pre-specified new-incident neuropsychiatric diagnoses after Delta versus Omicron BA.1/2 infection in a highly-vaccinated and boosted cohort of adult Singaporeans. METHODS: The national SARS-CoV-2 testing registry was used to construct cohorts of Singaporean adults infected during periods of Delta and Omicron BA.1/2 predominance and a contemporaneous test-negative control group. New-incident neuropsychiatric diagnoses recorded in the national health care claims database were identified up to 300 days postinfection. Risks and excess burden were estimated using a doubly robust competing-risks survival analysis. RESULTS: 104 179 and 375 903 infected cases were assigned to Delta and Omicron cohorts and compared against test-negative controls (Delta: N = 666 575 and Omicron: N = 619 379). Elevated risk of cognition or memory disorders was consistently reported across Omicron (Adjusted hazards ratio [aHR], 1.24; 95% CI, 1.12-1.38) and Delta cohorts (aHR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.39-1.92). Delta-variant infection was associated with an increased risk of anosmia or dysgeusia (aHR, 4.53; 95% CI, 2.78-7.41) and psychosis (aHR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.22-2.22). By contrast, Omicron-variant infection was associated with a risk of abnormal involuntary movements (aHR, 1.93; 95% CI, 1.32-2.83). Risks of neuropsychiatric sequelae predominantly accrued in hospitalized individuals. DISCUSSIONS: A modestly increased risk of cognition and memory disorders at 300 days after SARS-CoV-2 infection was observed among adult Singaporeans infected during the Delta/Omicron BA.1/2 transmission. There was no overall increased risk of neuropsychiatric sequelae observed across other domains. Variant-specific differences were also observed in individual neuropsychiatric sequelae, including an elevated risk of anosmia or dysgeusia after Delta-variant infection.

mRNA SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Before vs During Pregnancy and Omicron Infection Among Infants.

Importance: Infants younger than 6 months are at risk of severe SARS-CoV-2 infection. Data are lacking on the optimum timing for maternal vaccination and estimated effectiveness against Omicron variants, including XBB, for infants. Objective: To investigate maternal vaccination against Omicron variants, including XBB, and the association of vaccination timing during pregnancy vs prior to pregnancy and risks of SARS-CoV-2 infection among infants aged 6 months or younger. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study was conducted between January 1, 2022, and March 31, 2023. Singapore's national dataset was used to study infants born at greater than 32 weeks' gestation between January 1, 2022, and September 30, 2022. The study included infants whose parents had a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection from the date of birth up to 6 months of age. Of 21 609 infants born during this period, 7292 (33.7%) had at least 1 parent infected with SARS-CoV-2 before the age of 7 months. Statistical analysis was performed from April to July 2023. Exposure: Infants' mothers were unvaccinated, vaccinated prior to pregnancy, or vaccinated with a messenger RNA (mRNA) SARS-CoV-2 vaccine during pregnancy. Main Outcome and Measure: Infants were considered infected if they had a positive polymerase chain reaction test. Results: Among 7292 infants included in this study, 4522 (62.0%) had mothers who were Chinese, 527 (7.2%) had mothers who were Indian, 2007 (27.5%) had mothers who were Malay, and 236 (3.2%) had mothers who were other ethnicity; 6809 infants (93.4%) were born at full term, and 1272 infants (17.4%) were infected during the study period. There were 7120 infants (97.6%) born to mothers who had been fully vaccinated or boosted as of 14 days prior to delivery. The crude incidence rate was 174.3 per 100 000 person-days among infants born to mothers who were unvaccinated, 122.2 per 100 000 person-days among infants born to mothers who were vaccinated before pregnancy, and 128.5 per 100 000 person-days among infants born to mothers who were vaccinated during pregnancy. The estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 41.5% (95% CI, 22.8% to 55.7%) among infants born to mothers vaccinated during pregnancy. Infants of mothers who received vaccination prior to pregnancy did not have a lower risk for infection (estimated VE, 15.4% [95% CI, -17.6% to 39.1%]). A lower risk for Omicron XBB infection was only observed among mothers vaccinated with the third (booster) dose antenatally (estimated VE, 76.7% [95% CI, 12.8% to 93.8%]). Conclusions and Relevance: In this population-based cohort study, maternal mRNA vaccination was associated with a lower risk of Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection among infants up to 6 months of age only if the vaccine was given during the antenatal period. These findings suggest that mRNA vaccination during pregnancy may be needed for lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among newborns.

Predictors of 10-year Mortality After Hip Fracture Surgery in a Pre-Pandemic Cohort.

Introduction: Though hip fractures are associated with significant mortality and morbidity, increasing life expectancy in developed countries necessitates an analysis of mortality trends and factors predicting long term survival. The aim of this study is to identify the predictors of 10-year mortality as well as assess the correlation of Age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index (ACCI) with 10-year mortality in a surgically treated Asian geriatric hip fracture population. Materials and Methods: From January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2009, 766 patients who underwent surgery for hip fracture with a minimum follow up of 10-years were recruited to the study (92% follow-up rate). A review of the patient's electronic hospital records was performed to glean the following data: patient demographics, pre-existing comorbidities, operation duration, length of stay, fracture configuration, as well as mortality data up to 10 years. CCI scores and individual co-morbidities were correlated with inpatient, 30-day, 1-year, 5-year and beyond 10-year mortality. Results: Of the 766 patients, the mortality rate for 30-day, 1-year, 5-year and 10-years was 2.9%, 12.0%, 38.9% and 61.6% respectively. The average ACCI was 5.31. The 10-year mortality for patients with ACCI ≤ 3, ACCI 4-5 and ACCI ≥ 6 are 29.4%, 57.4% and 77.5% respectively. End-Stage-Renal Failure (ESRF), liver failure and COPD were dominant predictors of mortality at 10 years, whereas cancer was the predominant predictor at 1 year. Discussion: ACCI significantly correlates with the 10-year mortality after surgically treated hip fractures with a shift of the dominant predictors from cancer to ESRF and COPD. This could inform future health policy and resource planning. This data also represents recently available pre-pandemic survival trends after hip fracture surgery and serves as a baseline for post-pandemic outcome surveillance of interventions for fragility fractures. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that ACCI correlated with 10-year mortality after surgical treatment of hip fractures.

Factors associated with delayed diagnosis of symptomatic adult COVID-19 cases presenting to primary care: a population-wide study during transition from Delta to Omicron BA.1 in Singapore.

Background: During pandemics, avoiding time delay in diagnosing infection is crucial. We evaluated factors associated with delayed diagnosis of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in a national cohort of adult Singaporeans, during which emergence of the more transmissible Omicron variant shifted pandemic management towards endemicity. Methods: Retrospective cross-sectional study amongst all adult Singaporeans diagnosed with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection during the transition from Delta to Omicron BA.1 (September 2021-February 2022). SARS-CoV-2 testing was fully subsidised and compulsory for all symptomatic individuals presenting at primary care. Results and demographic information were extracted from national databases. Time to diagnosis was defined as days from symptom-onset to diagnosis (date of first positive SARS-CoV-2 test); dichotomising into no delay (≤24 h from symptom-onset) and delay >24 h. Multivariable logistic regression was utilised to assess factors associated with delay >24 h, and association of delay >24 h with progression to severe COVID-19. Findings: Of 149,063 Singaporean adults presenting with symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, 75.9% (113,195/149,063) were diagnosed within 24 h of symptom-onset. On multivariable analysis, female gender, older age (>60 years), Chinese (vs. Malay) ethnicity, socioeconomic status (housing type), primary care characteristics, presentation during Omicron BA.1 (vs. Delta), symptom-onset on Friday/Saturday (vs. Monday), and not having completed a primary vaccination series were independently associated with higher odds of delay >24 h. Delay >24 h was independently associated with severe COVID-19 (adjusted odds-ratio, aOR = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.27-1.65, p < 0.001). Interpretation: At-risk populations (unvaccinated, age >60 years) had higher odds of delay in diagnosis. Delay >24 h in diagnosis was independently associated with severe COVID-19. Funding: This study was not grant-funded.

Effectiveness of Monovalent mRNA Vaccines Against Omicron XBB Infection in Singaporean Children Younger Than 5 Years.

Importance: Literature on vaccine effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines for children younger than 5 years is limited. Objective: To report the effectiveness of monovalent mRNA vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection among Singaporean children aged 1 through 4 years during a COVID-19 pandemic wave of the Omicron XBB variant. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a population-based cohort study, conducted over a 6-month study period from October 1, 2022, through March 31, 2023, after the implementation of community vaccination among all Singaporean children aged 1 through 4 years. The study period was dominated by the Omicron XBB subvariant. Exposure: Receipt of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines. Main Outcome Measure: Vaccine effectiveness against confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. The adjusted incidence rate ratio for confirmed infections using Poisson regression was reported, with the reference group being those who were unvaccinated. Analyses were stratified by prior documented SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results: A total of 121 628 children (median [IQR] age, 3.1 [2.2-3.9] years; 61 925 male [50.9%]) were included in the study, contributing 21 015 956 person-days of observation. The majority of children (11 294 of 11 705 [96.5%]) received the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine (Moderna). Vaccine effectiveness against confirmed infection was 45.2% (95% CI, 24.7%-60.2%) in partially vaccinated, infection-naive children and 63.3% (95% CI, 40.6%-77.3%) in fully vaccinated, infection-naive children compared with the unvaccinated group. Among previously infected children, vaccine effectiveness against reinfections in those with at least 1 vaccine dose was estimated at 74.6% (95% CI, 38.7%-89.5%). Conclusions and Relevance: Study results suggest that completion of a primary mRNA vaccine series provided protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection in children aged 1 through 4 years. Although incidence of hospitalization and severe illness is low in this age group, there is potential benefit of vaccination in preventing infection and potential sequelae.

Chronic wounds in a multiethnic Asian population: a cost of illness study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the 'cost of illness' arising from chronic wounds in Singapore. DESIGN: Incidence-based cost of illness study using evidence from a range of sources. SETTING: Singapore health services. PARTICIPANTS: We consider 3.49 million Singapore citizens and permanent residents. There are 16 752 new individuals with a chronic wound in 2017, with 598 venous ulcers, 2206 arterial insufficiency ulcers, 6680 diabetic ulcers and 7268 pressure injuries.Primary outcome measures expressed in monetary terms are the value of all hospital bed days lost for the population; monetary value of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost in the population; costs of all outpatient visits; and costs of all poly clinic, use of Community Health Assist Scheme (CHAS) and emergency departments (EDs) visits. Intermediate outcomes that inform the primary outcomes are also estimated. RESULTS: Total annual cost of illness was $350 million (range $72-$1779 million). With 168 503 acute bed days taken up annually (range 141 966-196 032) that incurred costs of $139 million (range 117-161 million). Total costs to health services were $184 million (range $120-$1179 million). Total annual costs of lost health outcomes were 2077 QALYs (range -2657 to 29 029) valued at $166 million (range -212 to 2399 million). CONCLUSIONS: The costs of chronic wounds are large to Singapore. Costs can be reduced by making positive investments for comprehensive wound prevention and treatment programmes.

Effectiveness of bivalent mRNA vaccines against medically attended symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related hospital admission among SARS-CoV-2-naive and previously infected individuals: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 omicron (B.1.1.529) variant with high immune evasion has led to the development and roll-out of bivalent mRNA vaccines targeting original and omicron strains. However, real-world observational data on effectiveness of bivalent vaccines are scarce. We aimed to assess the relative effectiveness of a fourth vaccine dose with the BA.1-adapted or BA.4/BA.5-adapted bivalent vaccines against medically attended symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related hospital admission among SARS-CoV-2-naive and previously infected individuals in Singapore. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among Singapore residents aged 18 years and older who had received three monovalent mRNA vaccine doses and were eligible for a fourth dose. Data were collected from official databases on COVID-19 cases and vaccinations maintained by the Singapore Ministry of Health. We analysed the incidence of medically attended symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related hospital admission between Oct 14, 2022, and Jan 31, 2023, by previous infection status and type of fourth vaccine dose received. Inverse probability-weighted Cox regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). FINDINGS: 2 749 819 individuals were included in the analysis. For the SARS-CoV-2-naive group, a fourth monovalent vaccine dose did not confer additional protection over three monovalent doses against symptomatic infection (HR 1·09 [95% CI 1·07-1·11]), whereas the bivalent vaccine did provide additional protection (0·18 [0·17-0·19]). Among individuals with previous infection, the HR was 0·87 (95% CI 0·84-0·91) and 0·14 (0·13-0·15) with receipt of the fourth monovalent and bivalent doses, respectively. Against COVID-19-related hospital admission, the bivalent vaccine (HR 0·12 [95% CI 0·08-0·18] in SARS-CoV-2-naive participants and 0·04 [0·01-0·15] in previously infected participants) conferred greater benefit compared with the fourth monovalent dose (0·84 [0·77-0·91] in SARS-CoV-2-naive participants and 0·85 [0·69-1·04] in previously infected participants). INTERPRETATION: A fourth dose with the bivalent vaccine was substantially more effective against medically attended symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related hospital admission than four monovalent doses among both SARS-CoV-2-naive and previously infected individuals. Boosters with the bivalent vaccine might be preferred in this omicron-predominant pandemic, regardless of previous infection history. FUNDING: None.

Density forecasting of conjunctivitis burden using high-dimensional environmental time series data.

As one of the most common eye conditions being presented at clinics, acute conjunctivitis puts substantial strain on primary health resources. To reduce this public health burden, it is important to forecast and provide forward guidance to policymakers by estimating conjunctivitis trends, taking into account factors which influence transmission. Using a high-dimensional set of ambient air pollution and meteorological data, this study describes new approaches to point and probabilistic forecasting of conjunctivitis burden which can be readily translated to other infectious diseases. Over the period of 2012 - 2022, we show that simple models without environmental data provided better point forecasts but the more complex models which optimized predictive accuracy and combined multiple predictors demonstrated superior density forecast performance. These results were shown to be consistent over periods with and without structural breaks in transmission. Furthermore, ecological analysis using post-selection inference showed that increases in SO2, O3 surface concentration and total precipitation were associated to increased conjunctivitis attendance. The methods proposed can provide rich and informative forward guidance for outbreak preparedness and help guide healthcare resource planning in both stable periods of transmission and periods where structural breaks in data occur.