Clinicopathological discrepancies in the diagnoses of childhood causes of death in the CHAMPS network: An analysis of antemortem diagnostic inaccuracies.

INTRODUCTION: Determining aetiology of severe illness can be difficult, especially in settings with limited diagnostic resources, yet critical for providing life-saving care. Our objective was to describe the accuracy of antemortem clinical diagnoses in young children in high-mortality settings, compared with results of specific postmortem diagnoses obtained from Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS). METHODS: We analysed data collected during 2016-2022 from seven sites in Africa and South Asia. We compared antemortem clinical diagnoses from clinical records to a reference standard of postmortem diagnoses determined by expert panels at each site who reviewed the results of histopathological and microbiological testing of tissue, blood, and cerebrospinal fluid. We calculated test characteristics and 95% CIs of antemortem clinical diagnostic accuracy for the 10 most common causes of death. We classified diagnostic discrepancies as major and minor, per Goldman criteria later modified by Battle. RESULTS: CHAMPS enrolled 1454 deceased young children aged 1-59 months during the study period; 881 had available clinical records and were analysed. The median age at death was 11 months (IQR 4-21 months) and 47.3% (n=417) were female. We identified a clinicopathological discrepancy in 39.5% (n=348) of deaths; 82.3% of diagnostic errors were major. The sensitivity of clinician antemortem diagnosis ranged from 26% (95% CI 14.6% to 40.3%) for non-infectious respiratory diseases (eg, aspiration pneumonia, interstitial lung disease, etc) to 82.2% (95% CI 72.7% to 89.5%) for diarrhoeal diseases. Antemortem clinical diagnostic specificity ranged from 75.2% (95% CI 72.1% to 78.2%) for diarrhoeal diseases to 99.0% (95% CI 98.1% to 99.6%) for HIV. CONCLUSIONS: Antemortem clinical diagnostic errors were common for young children who died in areas with high childhood mortality rates. To further reduce childhood mortality in resource-limited settings, there is an urgent need to improve antemortem diagnostic capability through advances in the availability of diagnostic testing and clinical skills.

Comparison of causes of stillbirth and child deaths as determined by verbal autopsy and minimally invasive tissue sampling.

In resource-limited settings where vital registration and medical death certificates are unavailable or incomplete, verbal autopsy (VA) is often used to attribute causes of death (CoD) and prioritize resource allocation and interventions. We aimed to determine the CoD concordance between InterVA and CHAMPS's method. The causes of death (CoDs) of children <5 were determined by two methods using data from seven low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) enrolled in the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) network. The first CoD method was from the DeCoDe panel using data from Minimally Invasive Tissue Sampling (MITS), whereas the second method used Verbal Autopsy (VA), which utilizes the InterVA software. This analysis evaluated the agreement between the two using Lin's concordance correlation coefficient. The overall concordance of InterVA4 and DeCoDe in assigning causes of death across surveillance sites, age groups, and causes of death was poor (0.75 with 95% CI: 0.73-0.76) and lacked precision. We found substantial differences in agreement by surveillance site, with Mali showing the lowest and Mozambique and Ethiopia the highest concordance. The InterVA4 assigned CoD agrees poorly in assigning causes of death for U5s and stillbirths. Because VA methods are relatively easy to implement, such systems could be more useful if algorithms were improved to more accurately reflect causes of death, for example, by calibrating algorithms to information from programs that used detailed diagnostic testing to improve the accuracy of COD determination.

An Upsurge of Measles Cases in Mali-a Consequence of Pandemic-associated Disruption in Routine Immunization.

Measles deaths highlight immunization program gaps. In the Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance study in Mali, we observed a rise in under-5 measles-related deaths in 2022 that corresponded with increased measles cases at the same time and a decline in measles vaccine coverage in Mali in 2020.

Safety and immunogenicity of a single dose of Tdap compared to Td in pregnant women in Mali and 3 its effect on infant immune responses: a single-centre, randomised, double-blind, active-controlled phase 2 study.

Background: While maternal pertussis vaccination is a strategy to reduce infant morbidity, safety and immunogenicity data are limited in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to evaluate the safety of a single dose of tetanus, diphtheria and acellular pertussis vaccine (Tdap) vaccine compared to tetanus and diphtheria vaccine (Td) vaccine in pregnant women in Bamako, Mali and to assess the pertussis toxin (PT) antibody response at birth. Methods: In this phase 2, single-centre, randomised, double-blind, active-controlled study, from 23 January 2019 to 10 July 2019, healthy 18-39 year old women in the second trimester of a singleton pregnancy were randomised 2:1 to receive Tdap or Td. Blood was tested for serum immunoglobulin G (IgG) against PT and other vaccine antigens using a qualified Meso Scale Discovery multiplex immunoassay. The co-primary objectives evaluated safety and birth anti-PT levels. Infant immune responses to whole-cell pertussis vaccine (DTwP) were assessed. Statistical analysis was descriptive. This trial is registered with clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03589768. Findings: 133 women received Tdap and 67 received Td, with 126 and 66 livebirths, respectively. In the Tdap group, 22 serious adverse events (SAEs) including one maternal death occurred in 20 participants (15·0%), with 10 SAEs in 10 participants (14·9%) in the Td group. Among infants, 18 events occurred among 13 participants (10.3%) and 8 SAEs in 6 participants (9.1%), including three and two infant deaths, occurred in Tdap and Td groups, respectively. None were related to study vaccines. Anti-PT geometric mean concentration (GMC) at birth in the Tdap group was higher than in the Td group (55.4 [46.2-66.6] IU/ml vs 7.9 [5.4-11.5] IU/ml). One month after the third dose of DTwP, the GMC in infants born to mothers in the Tdap group were lower compared to the Td group (20.2 [13.7-29.9] IU/ml vs 77.2 [32.2-184.8] IU/ml). By 6 months of age, the anti- PT GMCs were 17.3 [12.8-23.4] IU/ml and 67.1 [35.5-126.7] IU/ml in Tdap and Td groups, respectively. At birth, anti-tetanus toxin (TT) GMCs were higher in infants in the Td vs Tdap group (5.9 [5.0-7.0] IU/ml vs 4.1 [3.5-4.8] IU/ml). Anti-diphtheria toxin GMCs were similar in both groups. Interpretation: Tdap administered to pregnant women in Mali is safe and well-tolerated. Infants of mothers who received Tdap were born with high PT and protective anti-TT antibody levels. By six months of age, after primary vaccination, the PT levels were lower in the Tdap group compared to the Td group. The blunted immune responses to primary DTwP vaccination in the Tdap infant group warrant further study. Funding: This project was funded by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), National Institutes of Health (NIH), under contract numbers 75N93021C00012 (The Emmes Company), and HHSN27220130000221 (University of Maryland, Baltimore). Dr. Susana Portillo was supported by NIH award no. T32AI007524. NIAID, NIH provided Tdap vaccine (BOOSTRIX).

Factors predicting mortality in hospitalised HIV-negative children with lower-chest-wall indrawing pneumonia and implications for management.

INTRODUCTION: In 2012, the World Health Organization revised treatment guidelines for childhood pneumonia with lower chest wall indrawing (LCWI) but no 'danger signs', to recommend home-based treatment. We analysed data from children hospitalized with LCWI pneumonia in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study to identify sub-groups with high odds of mortality, who might continue to benefit from hospital management but may not be admitted by staff implementing the 2012 guidelines. We compare the proportion of deaths identified using the criteria in the 2012 guidelines, and the proportion of deaths identified using an alternative set of criteria from our model. METHODS: PERCH enrolled a cohort of 2189 HIV-negative children aged 2-59 months who were admitted to hospital with LCWI pneumonia (without obvious cyanosis, inability to feed, vomiting, convulsions, lethargy or head nodding) between 2011-2014 in Kenya, Zambia, South Africa, Mali, The Gambia, Bangladesh, and Thailand. We analysed risk factors for mortality among these cases using predictive logistic regression. Malnutrition was defined as mid-upper-arm circumference <125mm or weight-for-age z-score <-2. RESULTS: Among 2189 cases, 76 (3·6%) died. Mortality was associated with oxygen saturation <92% (aOR 3·33, 1·99-5·99), HIV negative but exposed status (4·59, 1·81-11·7), moderate or severe malnutrition (6·85, 3·22-14·6) and younger age (infants compared to children 12-59 months old, OR 2·03, 95%CI 1·05-3·93). At least one of three risk factors: hypoxaemia, HIV exposure, or malnutrition identified 807 children in this population, 40% of LCWI pneumonia cases and identified 86% of the children who died in hospital (65/76). Risk factors identified using the 2012 WHO treatment guidelines identified 66% of the children who died in hospital (n = 50/76). CONCLUSIONS: Although it focuses on treatment failure in hospital, this study supports the proposal for better risk stratification of children with LCWI pneumonia. Those who have hypoxaemia, any malnutrition or those who were born to HIV positive mothers, experience poorer outcomes than other children with LCWI pneumonia. Consistent identification of these risk factors should be prioritised and children with at least one of these risk factors should not be managed in the community.

Exploring Natural Immune Responses to Shigella Exposure Using Multiplex Bead Assays on Dried Blood Spots in High-Burden Countries: Protocol From a Multisite Diarrhea Surveillance Study.

Background: Molecular diagnostics on human fecal samples have identified a larger burden of shigellosis than previously appreciated by culture. Evidence of fold changes in immunoglobulin G (IgG) to conserved and type-specific Shigella antigens could be used to validate the molecular assignment of type-specific Shigella as the etiology of acute diarrhea and support polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based microbiologic end points for vaccine trials. Methods: We will test dried blood spots collected at enrollment and 4 weeks later using bead-based immunoassays for IgG to invasion plasmid antigen B and type-specific lipopolysaccharide O-antigen for Shigella flexneri 1b, 2a, 3a, and 6 and Shigella sonnei in Shigella-positive cases and age-, site-, and season-matched test-negative controls from all sites in the Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella surveillance study. Fold antibody responses will be compared between culture-positive, culture-negative but PCR-attributable, and PCR-positive but not attributable cases and test-negative controls. Age- and site-specific seroprevalence distributions will be identified, and the association between baseline antibodies and Shigella attribution will be estimated. Conclusions: The integration of these assays into the EFGH study will help support PCR-based attribution of acute diarrhea to type-specific Shigella, describe the baseline seroprevalence of conserved and type-specific Shigella antibodies, and support correlates of protection for immunity to Shigella diarrhea. These insights can help support the development and evaluation of Shigella vaccine candidates.

The Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella Surveillance Study in Mali.

Background: In 2002, the Centre pour le Développement des Vaccins du Mali (CVD-Mali) was established as a partnership between the Mali Ministry of Health and the University of Maryland, Baltimore. Since its creation, CVD-Mali has been dedicated to describing the epidemiology of infectious diseases, supporting the development of vaccines, and training a team of local researchers. CVD-Mali participated in the Global Enteric Multicenter Study from 2007 to 2010 and the Vaccine Impact on Diarrhea in Africa study from 2015 to 2018, where the importance of Shigella as an enteric pathogen was established. Methods: In the Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella surveillance study, CVD-Mali will conduct Shigella surveillance at 4 health centers serving the population currently participating in a demographic surveillance system and will measure the local incidence of Shigella diarrhea and related outcomes in 6- to 35-month-old children. Antibiotic sensitivity patterns and the costs related to these cases will also be measured. Results: We anticipate reporting the number of diarrhea episodes that are positive by stool culture, the antibiotic susceptibility of these isolates, and the management and outcomes of these cases. Conclusions: In Mali, the EFGH study will contribute valuable information to understanding the burden of Shigella in this population. These data will inform the evaluation of vaccine candidates.

Quantifying the Cost of Shigella Diarrhea in the Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella Surveillance Study.

Background: Comparative costs of public health interventions provide valuable data for decision making. However, the availability of comprehensive and context-specific costs is often limited. The Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella surveillance study-a facility-based diarrhea surveillance study across 7 countries-aims to generate evidence on health system and household costs associated with medically attended Shigella diarrhea in children. Methods: EFGH working groups comprising representatives from each country (Bangladesh, Kenya, Malawi, Mali, Pakistan, Peru, and The Gambia) developed the study methods. Over a 24-month surveillance period, facility-based surveys will collect data on resource use for the medical treatment of an estimated 9800 children aged 6-35 months with diarrhea. Through these surveys, we will describe and quantify medical resources used in the treatment of diarrhea (eg, medication, supplies, and provider salaries), nonmedical resources (eg, travel costs to the facility), and the amount of caregiver time lost from work to care for their sick child. To assign costs to each identified resource, we will use a combination of caregiver interviews, national medical price lists, and databases from the World Health Organization and the International Labor Organization. Our primary outcome will be the estimated cost per inpatient and outpatient episode of medically attended Shigella diarrhea treatment across countries, levels of care, and illness severity. We will conduct sensitivity and scenario analysis to determine how unit costs vary across scenarios. Conclusions: Results from this study will contribute to the existing body of literature on diarrhea costing and inform future policy decisions related to investments in preventive strategies for Shigella.

Population Enumeration and Household Utilization Survey Methods in the Enterics for Global Health (EFGH): Shigella Surveillance Study.

Background: Accurate estimation of diarrhea incidence from facility-based surveillance requires estimating the population at risk and accounting for case patients who do not seek care. The Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella surveillance study will characterize population denominators and healthcare-seeking behavior proportions to calculate incidence rates of Shigella diarrhea in children aged 6-35 months across 7 sites in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Methods: The Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella surveillance study will use a hybrid surveillance design, supplementing facility-based surveillance with population-based surveys to estimate population size and the proportion of children with diarrhea brought for care at EFGH health facilities. Continuous data collection over a 24 month period captures seasonality and ensures representative sampling of the population at risk during the period of facility-based enrollments. Study catchment areas are broken into randomized clusters, each sized to be feasibly enumerated by individual field teams. Conclusions: The methods presented herein aim to minimize the challenges associated with hybrid surveillance, such as poor parity between survey area coverage and facility coverage, population fluctuations, seasonal variability, and adjustments to care-seeking behavior.

Identifying delays in healthcare seeking and provision: The Three Delays-in-Healthcare and mortality among infants and children aged 1-59 months.

Delays in illness recognition, healthcare seeking, and in the provision of appropriate clinical care are common in resource-limited settings. Our objective was to determine the frequency of delays in the "Three Delays-in-Healthcare", and factors associated with delays, among deceased infants and children in seven countries with high childhood mortality. We conducted a retrospective, descriptive study using data from verbal autopsies and medical records for infants and children aged 1-59 months who died between December 2016 and February 2022 in six sites in sub-Saharan Africa and one in South Asia (Bangladesh) and were enrolled in Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS). Delays in 1) illness recognition in the home/decision to seek care, 2) transportation to healthcare facilities, and 3) the receipt of clinical care in healthcare facilities were categorized according to the "Three Delays-in-Healthcare". Comparisons in factors associated with delays were made using Chi-square testing. Information was available for 1,326 deaths among infants and under 5 children. The majority had at least one identified delay (n = 854, 64%). Waiting >72 hours after illness recognition to seek health care (n = 422, 32%) was the most common delay. Challenges in obtaining transportation occurred infrequently when seeking care (n = 51, 4%). In healthcare facilities, prescribed medications were sometimes unavailable (n = 102, 8%). Deceased children aged 12-59 months experienced more delay than infants aged 1-11 months (68% vs. 61%, P = 0.018). Delays in seeking clinical care were common among deceased infants and children. Additional study to assess the frequency of delays in seeking clinical care and its provision among children who survive is warranted.

Burden of child mortality from malaria in high endemic areas: Results from the CHAMPS network using minimally invasive tissue sampling.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a leading cause of childhood mortality worldwide. However, accurate estimates of malaria prevalence and causality among patients who die at the country level are lacking due to the limited specificity of diagnostic tools used to attribute etiologies. Accurate estimates are crucial for prioritizing interventions and resources aimed at reducing malaria-related mortality. METHODS: Seven Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) Network sites collected comprehensive data on stillbirths and children <5 years, using minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS). A DeCoDe (Determination of Cause of Death) panel employed standardized protocols for assigning underlying, intermediate, and immediate causes of death, integrating sociodemographic, clinical, laboratory (including extensive microbiology, histopathology, and malaria testing), and verbal autopsy data. Analyses were conducted to ascertain the strength of evidence for cause of death (CoD), describe factors associated with malaria-related deaths, estimate malaria-specific mortality, and assess the proportion of preventable deaths. FINDINGS: Between December 3, 2016, and December 31, 2022, 2673 deaths underwent MITS and had a CoD attributed from four CHAMPS sites with at least 1 malaria-attributed death. No malaria-attributable deaths were documented among 891 stillbirths or 924 neonatal deaths, therefore this analysis concentrates on the remaining 858 deaths among children aged 1-59 months. Malaria was in the causal chain for 42.9% (126/294) of deaths from Sierra Leone, 31.4% (96/306) in Kenya, 18.2% (36/198) in Mozambique, 6.7% (4/60) in Mali, and 0.3% (1/292) in South Africa. Compared to non-malaria related deaths, malaria-related deaths skewed towards older infants and children (p < 0.001), with 71.0% among ages 12-59 months. Malaria was the sole infecting pathogen in 184 (70.2%) of malaria-attributed deaths, whereas bacterial and viral co-infections were identified in the causal pathway in 24·0% and 12.2% of cases, respectively. Malnutrition was found at a similar level in the causal pathway of both malaria (26.7%) and non-malaria (30.7%, p = 0.256) deaths. Less than two-thirds (164/262; 62.6%) of malaria deaths had received antimalarials prior to death. Nearly all (98·9%) malaria-related deaths were deemed preventable. INTERPRETATION: Malaria remains a significant cause of childhood mortality in the CHAMPS malaria-endemic sites. The high bacterial co-infection prevalence among malaria deaths underscores the potential benefits of antibiotics for severe malaria patients. Compared to non-malaria deaths, many of malaria-attributed deaths are preventable through accessible malaria control measures.

Post-mortem investigation of deaths due to pneumonia in children aged 1-59 months in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia from 2016 to 2022: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: The Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) Network programme undertakes post-mortem minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), together with collection of ante-mortem clinical information, to investigate causes of childhood deaths across multiple countries. We aimed to evaluate the overall contribution of pneumonia in the causal pathway to death and the causative pathogens of fatal pneumonia in children aged 1-59 months enrolled in the CHAMPS Network. METHODS: In this observational study we analysed deaths occurring between Dec 16, 2016, and Dec 31, 2022, in the CHAMPS Network across six countries in sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa) and one in South Asia (Bangladesh). A standardised approach of MITS was undertaken on decedents within 24-72 h of death. Diagnostic tests included blood culture, multi-organism targeted nucleic acid amplifications tests (NAATs) of blood and lung tissue, and histopathology examination of various organ tissue samples. An interdisciplinary expert panel at each site reviewed case data to attribute the cause of death and pathogenesis thereof on the basis of WHO-recommended reporting standards. FINDINGS: Pneumonia was attributed in the causal pathway of death in 455 (40·6%) of 1120 decedents, with a median age at death of 9 (IQR 4-19) months. Causative pathogens were identified in 377 (82·9%) of 455 pneumonia deaths, and multiple pathogens were implicated in 218 (57·8%) of 377 deaths. 306 (67·3%) of 455 deaths occurred in the community or within 72 h of hospital admission (presumed to be community-acquired pneumonia), with the leading bacterial pathogens being Streptococcus pneumoniae (108 [35·3%]), Klebsiella pneumoniae (78 [25·5%]), and non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (37 [12·1%]). 149 (32·7%) deaths occurred 72 h or more after hospital admission (presumed to be hospital-acquired pneumonia), with the most common pathogens being K pneumoniae (64 [43·0%]), Acinetobacter baumannii (19 [12·8%]), S pneumoniae (15 [10·1%]), and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (15 [10·1%]). Overall, viruses were implicated in 145 (31·9%) of 455 pneumonia-related deaths, including 54 (11·9%) of 455 attributed to cytomegalovirus and 29 (6·4%) of 455 attributed to respiratory syncytial virus. INTERPRETATION: Pneumonia contributed to 40·6% of all childhood deaths in this analysis. The use of post-mortem MITS enabled biological ascertainment of the cause of death in the majority (82·9%) of childhood deaths attributed to pneumonia, with more than one pathogen being commonly implicated in the same case. The prominent role of K pneumoniae, non-typable H influenzae, and S pneumoniae highlight the need to review empirical management guidelines for management of very severe pneumonia in low-income and middle-income settings, and the need for research into new or improved vaccines against these pathogens. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.