Hepatitis E virus in the Kathmandu Valley: Insights from a representative longitudinal serosurvey.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis-E virus (HEV), an etiologic agent of acute inflammatory liver disease, is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in South Asia. HEV is considered endemic in Nepal; but data on population-level infection transmission is sparse. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal serosurvey in central Nepal to assess HEV exposure. At each visit, capillary blood samples were collected and analyzed for the presence of anti-HEV IgG antibodies. The study took place between February 2019 and April 2021, with up to 4 visits per participant approximately 6 months apart. RESULTS: We collected 2513 samples from 923 participants aged 0-25 years, finding a seroprevalence of 4.8% and a seroincidence rate of 10.9 per 1000 person-years. Young adults and individuals consuming surface water faced the highest incidence of infection. Geospatial analysis identified potential HEV clusters, suggesting a need for targeted interventions. SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings demonstrate that HEV is endemic in Nepal and that the risk of infection increases with age.

Estimating the Seroincidence of Scrub Typhus using Antibody Dynamics after Infection.

Scrub typhus, a vector-borne bacterial infection, is an important but neglected disease globally. Accurately characterizing the burden is challenging because of nonspecific symptoms and limited diagnostics. Prior seroepidemiology studies have struggled to find consensus cutoffs that permit comparisons of estimates across contexts and time. In this study, we present a novel approach that does not require a cutoff and instead uses information about antibody kinetics after infection to estimate seroincidence. We use data from three cohorts of scrub typhus patients in Chiang Rai, Thailand, and Vellore, India, to characterize antibody kinetics after infection and two population serosurveys in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, and Tamil Nadu, India, to estimate seroincidence. The samples were tested for IgM and IgG responses to Orientia tsutsugamushi-derived recombinant 56-kDa antigen using commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kits. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to characterize antibody responses after scrub typhus infection and used the joint distributions of the peak antibody titers and decay rates to estimate population-level incidence rates in the cross-sectional serosurveys. Median responses persisted above an optical density (OD) of 1.8 for 23.6 months for IgG and an OD of 1 for 4.5 months for IgM. Among 18- to 29-year-olds, the seroincidence was 10 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI, 5-19) in Tamil Nadu, India, and 14 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 10-20) in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. When seroincidence was calculated with antibody decay ignored, the disease burden was underestimated by more than 50%. The approach can be deployed prospectively, coupled with existing serosurveys, or leverage banked samples to efficiently generate scrub typhus seroincidence estimates.