Effect of Population Partitioning on the Probability of Silent Circulation of Poliovirus.

Polio can circulate unobserved in regions that are challenging to monitor. To assess the probability of silent circulation, simulation models can be used to understand transmission dynamics when detection is unreliable. Model assumptions, however, impact the estimated probability of silent circulation. Here, we examine the impact of having distinct populations, rather than a single well-mixed population, with a discrete-individual model including environmental surveillance. We show that partitioning a well-mixed population into networks of distinct communities may result in a higher probability of silent circulation as a result of the time it takes for the detection of a circulation event. Population structure should be considered when assessing polio control in a region with many loosely interacting communities.

Impacts of California Proposition 47 on crime in Santa Monica, California.

We examine patterns of reported crime in Santa Monica, California before and after the passage of Proposition 47, a 2014 initiative that reclassified some non-violent felonies as misdemeanors. We also investigate impacts of the opening of four new light rail stations in 2016 and of increased community-based policing starting in late 2018. Our statistical analyses of reclassified crimes-larceny, fraud, possession of narcotics, forgery, receiving/possessing stolen property-and non-reclassified ones are based on publicly available reported crime data from 2006 to 2019. These analyses examine reported crime at various levels: city-wide, within eight neighborhoods, and within a 450-meter radius of the new transit stations. Monthly reported reclassified crimes increased city-wide by approximately 15% after enactment of Proposition 47, with a significant drop observed in late 2018. Downtown exhibited the largest overall surge. Reported non-reclassified crimes fell overall by approximately 9%. Areas surrounding two new train stations, including Downtown, saw significant increases in reported crime after train service began. While reported reclassified crimes increased after passage of Proposition 47, non-reclassified crimes, for the most part, decreased or stayed constant, suggesting that Proposition 47 may have impacted reported crime in Santa Monica. Reported crimes decreased in late 2018 concurrent with the adoption of new community-based policing measures. Follow-up studies needed to confirm long-term trends may be challenging due to the COVID-19 pandemic that drastically changed societal conditions. While our research detects changes in reported crime, it does not provide causative explanations. Our work, along with other considerations relevant to public utility, respect for human rights, and existence of socioeconomic disparities, may be useful to law enforcement and policymakers to assess the overall effect of Proposition 47.

Evaluating the probability of silent circulation of polio in small populations using the silent circulation statistic.

As polio-endemic countries move towards elimination, infrequent first infections and incomplete surveillance make it difficult to determine when the virus has been eliminated from the population. Eichner and Dietz [American Journal of Epidemiology, 143, 8 (1996)] proposed a model to estimate the probability of silent polio circulation depending upon when the last paralytic case was detected. Using the same kind of stochastic model they did, we additionally model waning polio immunity in the context of isolated, small, and unvaccinated populations. We compare using the Eichner and Dietz assumption of an initial case at the start of the simulation to a more accurate determination that observes the first case. The former estimates a higher probability of silent circulation in small populations, but this effect diminishes with increasing model population. We also show that stopping the simulation after a specific time estimates a lower probability of silent circulation than when all replicates are run to extinction, though this has limited impact on small populations. Our extensions to the Eichner and Dietz work improve the basis for decisions concerning the probability of silent circulation. Further model realism will be needed for accurate silent circulation risk assessment.

Corrigendum to "Silent circulation of poliovirus in small populations" [Infectious Disease Modeling 2 (2017) 431-440].

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2017.11.001.].

Characteristic patterns of cancer incidence: Epidemiological data, biological theories, and multistage models.

We investigate and classify several patterns in cancer incidence and relative risk data which persist across different countries and multiple published studies. We then explore biological hypotheses as well as many mathematical models in the literature that attempt to explain these patterns. A general modeling framework is presented which is general enough to model most of observed behaviors. It is our belief that this model has sufficient flexibility to be adapted to new information as it is discovered. As one application of this framework, we give a model for the effect of aging on the process of carcinogenesis.

Silent circulation of poliovirus in small populations.

BACKGROUND: Small populations that have been isolated by conflict make vaccination and surveillance difficult, threatening polio eradication. Silent circulation is caused by asymptomatic infections. It is currently not clear whether the dynamics of waning immunity also influence the risk of silent circulation in the absence of vaccination. Such circulation can, nevertheless, be present following a declaration of elimination as a result of inadequate acute flaccid paralysis surveillance (AFPS) or environmental surveillance (ES). METHODS: We have constructed a stochastic model to understand how stochastic effects alter the ability of small populations to sustain virus circulation in the absence of vaccination. We analyzed how the stochastic process determinants of the duration of silent circulation that could have been detected by ES were affected by R0 , waning dynamics, population size, and AFPS sensitivity in a discrete individual stochastic model with homogeneous contagiousness and random mixing. We measured the duration of silent circulation both by the interval between detected acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) cases and the duration of circulation until elimination. RESULTS: As R0 increased and population size increased, the interval between detected AFP cases and the duration of circulation until elimination increased. As AFPS detection rates decreased, the interval between detected AFP cases increased. There was up to a 22 % chance of silent circulation lasting for more than 3 years with 100 % AFP detection. The duration of silent circulation was not affected by the waning immunity dynamics. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated that small populations have the potential to sustain prolonged silent circulation. Surveillance in these areas should be intensified before declaring elimination. To further validate these conclusions, it is necessary to realistically relax the simplifying assumptions about mixing and waning.

Muscavirus (MdSGHV) disease dynamics in house fly populations--how is this virus transmitted and has it potential as a biological control agent?

The newly classified family Hytrosaviridae comprises several double-stranded DNA viruses that have been isolated from various dipteran species. These viruses cause characteristic salivary gland hypertrophy and suppress gonad development in their hosts. One member, Muscavirus or MdSGHV, exclusively infects adult house flies (Musca domestica) and, owing to its massive reproduction in and release from the salivary glands, is believed to be transmitted orally among feeding flies. However, results from recent experiments suggest that additional transmission routes likely are involved in the maintenance of MdSGHV in field populations of its host. Firstly, several hours before newly emerged feral flies begin feeding activities, the fully formed peritrophic matrix (PM) constitutes an effective barrier against oral infection. Secondly, flies are highly susceptible to topical virus treatments and intrahemocoelic injections. Thirdly, disease transmission is higher when flies are maintained in groups with infected conspecifics than when flies have access to virus-contaminated food. We hypothesize that interactions between flies may lead to cuticular damage, thereby providing an avenue to viral particles for direct access to the hemocoel. Based on our current knowledge, two options seem plausible for developing Muscavirus as a sterilizing agent to control house fly populations: The virus may either be formulated with PM-disrupting materials to facilitate oral infection from a feeding bait system, or amended with abrasive materials to enhance infection through a damaged cuticle after topical aerosol applications.

A Mathematic Model That Describes Modes of MdSGHV Transmission within House Fly Populations.

In this paper it is proposed that one potential component by which the Musca domestica salivary gland hypertrophy virus (MdSGHV) infects individual flies is through cuticular damage. Breaks in the cuticle allow entry of the virus into the hemocoel causing the infection. Male flies typically have a higher rate of infection and a higher rate of cuticular damage than females. A model for the transmission of MdSGHV was formulated assuming several potential and recognized means of transmission. The model yields results that are in agreement with field data that measured the infection rate in house flies on dairy farms in Florida. The results from this model indicate that MdSGHV will be maintained at a stable rate within house fly populations and support the future use of MdSGHV as a birth control agent in house fly management.