Standard protocols for plant health scientific assessments.

In accordance with the EFSA Strategy 2027 outlining the need for fit-for-purpose protocols for EFSA generic scientific assessments, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH Panel) developed standard protocols to harmonise the problem formulation process and outputs for mandates addressing recurrent scientific questions. Three types of recurring EFSA plant health mandates require generic scientific assessments: (i) pest categorisation; (ii) commodity risk assessment for the purpose of derogation to provisions of the EU plant health law and (iii) quantitative pest risk assessment. The three standard protocols are tailored to the appropriate level of detail and build on the existing guidance documents laying out the methods for conducting risk assessment in the plant health domain. To develop a standard protocol for pest categorisation, the PLH Panel adapted the latest version of the standard template reporting the evidence needs and the assessment questions to conclude whether a pest fulfils the criteria for being considered a potential quarantine pest for the EU. To develop a standard protocol for commodity risk assessment, the PLH Panel adapted the procedure and standard templates used for commodity risk assessment of high risk plants. To develop a standard protocol for quantitative pest risk assessments (qPRA), the Panel reviewed the existing guidance document on qPRA and the qPRAs published by the PLH Panel. The hierarchy of assessment questions and sub-questions used were identified and extracted. Based on this, a hierarchically organised IT-tool was formulated as protocol for the planning and documentation of future qPRAs.

Pest categorisation of non-EU Scolytinae on non-coniferous hosts.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a group pest categorisation for the EU territory of non-EU Scolytinae (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) on non-coniferous hosts, which total 6495 known species. Most species attack apparently healthy, weakened or dead trees, either feeding on the phloem ('bark beetles' subgroup) or on fungi inoculated into the sapwood ('ambrosia beetles' subgroup). Smaller subgroups feed and reproduce in seeds and fruits, or in herbaceous plants. Some species are polygynous, the males initiate a gallery or a chamber on or in a new host and attract females. Others are monogamous, and the females initiate the new galleries. Many species respond to primary volatile attractants emitted by the hosts, and some produce aggregation pheromones that attract conspecifics of both sexes. The species attacking living hosts are often associated with fungi that contribute to weakening the host defences and provide nutrients to the insects. Some are inbreeding; the males in the offspring mate with their sisters and rarely leave their natal tree. The larvae of all species develop and pupate within their hosts. Based on catalogues and other published data, a database was constructed providing information on hosts, feeding and reproductive habits, geographic distribution and the Köppen-Geiger climate types in countries where species occur. The Scolytinae were screened to exclude species in the following categories: (i) 708 species attacking conifers; (ii) 127 species present in at least four EU Member States and (iii) 440 species occurring in areas with climatic conditions not occurring in the EU. Among the remaining 5220 species, 88 species known for their mobility, occupying at least two landmasses separated by geographical barriers and some of which had impact levels documented in literature, were extracted. They were grouped into four subcategories: (i) 12 species with high impact on plant health; (ii) 16 species with low or doubtful impact; (iii) 48 species with no impact; (iv) 12 species with no impact and which had never been recorded as 'introduced' in the consulted catalogues but occurring on at least two landmasses. All 88 species could enter the EU with wood or wood products, or with plants for planting, and could establish because host plants are available, and climate is suitable in parts of the EU. Control measures to inhibit introduction are available. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the potential impact of many species. Methods for the reliable identification of many species are lacking. For some species of non-EU Scolytinae on non-coniferous hosts, all criteria assessed by EFSA for consideration as potential quarantine pest are met. Nevertheless, the Panel was not able to develop a method to discriminate confidently between species that clearly meet the criteria for potential quarantine pest status and those that do not.

Pest categorisation of Monema flavescens.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Monema flavescens (Lepidoptera, Limacodidae), following the commodity risk assessment of Acer palmatum plants grafted on A. davidii from China, in which M. flavescens was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union. This species can be identified by morphological taxonomic keys and by barcoding. The adults of the overwintering generation emerge from late June to late August. The eggs are laid in groups on the underside of the host-plant leaves, on which the larvae feed throughout their six to eight larval instars. Pupation occurs in ovoid cocoons at the junction between twigs and branches, or on the trunk. Overwintering occurs as fully grown larvae or prepupae in their cocoon. There are one or two generations per year. M. flavescens is polyphagous and feeds on broadleaves; it has been reported on 51 plant species belonging to 24 families. It mainly occurs in Asia (Bhutan, China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Japan, Nepal, the Republic of Korea), Russia (Eastern Siberia) and Taiwan. It is also present in the USA (Massachusetts). The pest's flight capacities are unknown. The main pathway for entry and spread is plants for planting with cocoons attached. This is partially closed by prohibition of some hosts. In several EU member states climatic conditions are conducive for establishment and many host plants are widespread. Introduction of M. flavescens may result in defoliations influencing tree health and forest diversity. The caterpillars also have urticating spines affecting human health. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of entry, establishment and spread, and there is a definite potential for classical biological control. Recognising that natural enemies prevent M. flavescens being regarded as a pest in Asia, there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of potential impact in EU depending on the influence of natural enemies. All criteria assessed by EFSA for consideration as a potential quarantine pest are met.

Pest categorisation of Ceroplastes rubens.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to conduct a pest categorisation of Ceroplastes rubens Maskell (Hemiptera: Coccidae), following the commodity risk assessments of Acer palmatum plants grafted on A. davidii and Pinus parviflora bonsai plants grafted on P. thunbergii from China, in which C. rubens was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union (EU). The pest, which is commonly known as the pink, red or ruby wax scale, originates in Africa and is highly polyphagous attacking plants from more than 193 genera in 84 families. It has been present in Germany since 2010 in a single tropical glasshouse. It is known to attack primarily tropical and subtropical plants, but also other host plants commonly found in the EU, such as Malus sylvestris, Prunus spp., Pyrus spp. and ornamentals. It is considered an important pest of Citrus spp. The pink wax scale reproduces mainly parthenogenetically, and it has one or two generations per year. Fecundity ranges from 5 to 1178 eggs. Crawlers settle usually on young twigs and later stages are sessile. All life stages of C. rubens egest honeydew on which sooty mould grows. Host availability and climate suitability suggest that parts of the EU would be suitable for establishment. Plants for planting and cut branches provide the main pathways for entry. Crawlers could spread over short distances naturally through wind, animals, humans or machinery. C. rubens could be dispersed more rapidly and over long distances via infested plants for planting for trade. The introduction of C. rubens into the EU could lead to outbreaks causing damage to orchards, amenity ornamental trees and shrubs. Phytosanitary measures are available to inhibit the entry and spread of this species. C. rubens satisfies the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

Commodity risk assessment of maple veneer sheets from Canada.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to deliver a risk assessment on the likelihood of pest freedom from Union quarantine pests and pests subject to measures adopted pursuant to Article 30 of Regulation (EU) No 2016/2031 for the maple veneer sheets manufactured according to the process set out by Canada, with emphasis on the freedom from Davidsoniella virescens and Phytophthora ramorum (non-EU isolates). The assessment was conducted for veneer sheets of up to 0.7 mm and up to 6 mm thickness, taking into account the different phases in the veneer production in a systems approach. Some of those phases, taken alone, including the heat treatment of logs in a water bath, the cutting into thin veneer sheets and the final high heat drying of veneer sheets are expected to be effective against some of the pests, without uncertainties, making the system approach fully effective. The panel considers that no insects would survive cutting of logs into thin veneer sheets of 0.7 mm and that Xylella fastidiosa will not survive the temperatures in the water bath and final drying of veneers. The degree of pest freedom for the different groups of organisms is generally very high with slightly lower degree of pest freedom for veneer sheets of 6 mm thickness because of lower temperatures reached in the final drying of veneer sheets compared to thinner sheets. P. ramorum is not expected to survive the high heat drying of thin veneer sheets, but it may survive the lower temperatures inside thicker veneer sheets. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation (EKE) indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9989 and 10,000 veneer sheets (thickness 6 mm) per 10,000 will be free from living P. ramorum. For D. virescens, the EKE indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9984 and 10,000 veneer sheets (0.7 mm) per 10,000 and that between 9954 and 10,000 veneer sheets (6 mm) per 10,000 will be free from living inoculum. For other relevant groups of pests, the greatest likelihood of pest presence was observed for wood decay fungi. The EKE indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9967 and 10,000 veneer sheets (0.7 mm) per 10,000 and that between 9911 and 10,000 veneer sheets (6 mm) per 10,000 will be free from living wood decay fungi.

Commodity risk assessment of Prunus avium plants from United Kingdom.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Prunus avium possibly grafted on rootstocks of either P. avium, P. canescens, P. cerasus, P. pseudocerasus or their hybrids imported from the UK, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. All pests associated with the commodities were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Three quarantine pests Scirtothrips dorsalis, tobacco ringspot virus and tomato ringspot virus), one protected zone EU quarantine pest (Bemisia tabaci (European population), and three non- regulated pests (Colletotrichum aenigma, Eulecanium excrescens and Takahashia japonica) that fulfilled all relevant criteria were selected for further evaluation. The risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical Dossier from the UK were evaluated, taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom, taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with Colletotrichum aenigma being the pest most frequently expected on the imported potted plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9971 and 10,000 plants per 10,000 would be free from the above-mentioned fungus.

Pest categorisation of Popillia quadriguttata.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Popillia quadriguttata (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae), following a commodity risk assessment of bonsai Pinus parviflora grafted onto P. thunbergii from China, in which P. quadriguttata was identified as a pest of possible concern for the territory of the European Union. This is a univoltine polyphagous pest that occurs in eastern Asia from Vietnam northwards through eastern China and Taiwan, South Korea and into Far East Russia. Hosts include species of fruit trees within the genera Malus and Prunus, trees of forestry and environmental importance such as Quercus and Ulmus, shrubs such as Wisteria, soft fruit such as Rubus, grasses, including amenity turf and field crops such as potatoes, maize and soybean. Adults feed on host leaves, tender stems, flower buds, flowers and fruits; larvae feed on host roots. In northern China P. quadriguttata is a major pest of soybean; in South Korea, P. quadriguttata is one of the most serious insect pests of golf course turf. P. quadriguttata could enter the EU on various pathways including infested soil and growing media accompanying host plants for planning. Biotic factors (host availability) and abiotic factors (climate suitability) suggest that large parts of the EU would be suitable for establishment. Local spread would be mainly via natural dispersal of adults. Long distance spread would be facilitated by the movement of eggs, larvae and pupae infesting soil especially with plants for planting; adults could spread on plants for planting without soil. Economic and or environmental impacts would be expected on a range of plants if P. quadriguttata were to establish in the EU. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of its introduction. P. quadriguttata satisfies all of the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

Pest categorisation of Cenopalpus irani.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Cenopalpus irani (Trombidiformes: Tenuipalpidae), known as the Iranian false spider mite, following the commodity risk assessment of Malus domestica plants from Türkiye, in which C. irani was identified as a pest of possible concern for the territory of the European Union (EU). The pest is only known to be present in Iran and Türkiye and has not been reported from the EU. The mite primarily feeds on Rosaceae plants but is considered polyphagous. Important crops of the EU that are hosts of C. irani include apples (Malus domestica), pears (Pyrus communis) and figs (Ficus carica). Plants for planting and fruits provide potential pathways for entry into the EU. Host availability and climate suitability in southern EU countries would most probably allow this species to successfully establish and spread. This mite is not listed in Annex II of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of entry and spread of this species into the EU. The mite C. irani satisfies the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest, although there is a key uncertainty over the likelihood and magnitude of impact.

Risk assessment of Phlyctinus callosus for the EU.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment for the EU of Phlyctinus callosus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), a polyphagous pest occurring in Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. The current risk assessment focused on potential pathways for entry, the climatic conditions allowing establishment, the expected spread capacity and the impact considering a time horizon of 10 years (2023-2032). The Panel identified the import of apples, cut flowers and table grapes as the most relevant entry pathways. Over the next 10 years, an annual median estimate of approximately 49.5 (90% certainty range, CR, ranging from 4.0 to 881.2) potential P. callosus founder populations are expected. When the probability of establishment is considered and climatic indicators are used to define the areas in the EU where establishment is possible, the model estimated a median of 1 founder population every 1.3 years (90% CR: 1 every 30.8 years to 23.3 per year) in the scenario where the areas are defined by the union of all the climatic indicators and 1 founder population every 11.9 years (90% CR: 1 every 256.6 years to 2.5 per year) in the scenario where establishment is possible only in the areas defined by the climatic indicator of minimum soil temperature. The estimated number of founder populations per year is mostly driven by the probability of establishment in the rural areas, infestation rate in table grapes and the probability of transfer to a suitable host in the rural area. The risk of entry for cut flowers and apples is substantially lower than the risk from the table grapes. If such founder populations were to establish, P. callosus is estimated to spread by natural dispersal and common agricultural practices at a rate of 15.5 m/year (90% CR 5.1-46.8 m/year) after a lag phase of 4.0 years (90% CR 1.3-8.7 years). The impact, expressed as percentage loss of the production directly attributable to P. callosus in the areas where establishment is possible and assuming farmers do not apply specific control measures was estimated at 0.5% (90% CR 0.01%-2.8%) for cut flowers/foliage, 5.2% (90% CR 2.2%-11.7%) for apples and 2% (90% CR 1.3%-5.2%) for table grapes. Options for risk reduction are discussed, but their effectiveness is not quantified.

Pest categorisation of Matsucoccus matsumurae.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Matsucoccus matsumurae (Hemiptera: Matsucoccidae), the Massonian pine bast scale, for the EU territory. This pest categorisation was initiated following the commodity risk assessment of artificially dwarfed plants from China consisting of Pinus parviflora (Japanese white pine) grafted on P. thunbergii (Japanese black pine) performed by EFSA, in which M. matsumurae was identified as a pest of possible concern. However, its identity is not firmly established due to uncertainty regarding its taxonomic relationship with Matsucoccus pini (Green), a species widespread in Europe. M. matsumurae occurs in western China and has been reported as a pest of P. massoniana (Chinese red pine) and P. thunbergii. These hosts occur in the EU as ornamental/amenity trees. Other scales in the Matsucoccus genus feed on a variety of Pinus species and the host range of M. matsumurae could be wider than is currently recorded. The scale has one or two generations per year. All stages occur on the branches and stems of hosts with developing nymphs and adult females feeding through the bark on host phloem vessels. Symptoms include the yellowing/browning of host needles, early needle drop, desiccation of shoots and bark necrosis. The most serious infestations occur in hosts that are 8-25 years old and there can be some host mortality. In principle, host plants for planting and plant products such as cut branches and wood with bark could provide entry pathways into the EU. However, prohibitions on the import of Pinus from non-European third countries regulate these pathways. In China, M. matsumurae occurs in regions with temperate humid conditions and hot summers. These conditions are also found in parts of southern EU. Were M. matsumurae to establish in the EU, it is conceivable that it could expand its host range; however, this remains uncertain. Some uncertainty exists over the magnitude of potential impacts. M. matsumurae satisfies the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest, assuming M. pini is not a synonym, which is a key uncertainty.

Pest categorisation of Coniella castaneicola.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to conduct a pest categorisation of Coniella castaneicola (Ellis & Everh) Sutton, following commodity risk assessments of Acer campestre, A. palmatum, A. platanoides, A. pseudoplatanus, Quercus petraea and Q. robur plants from the UK, in which C. castaneicola was identified as a pest of possible concern to the EU. When first described, Coniella castaneicola was a clearly defined fungus of the family Schizoparmaceae, but due to lack of a curated type-derived DNA sequence, current identification based only on DNA sequence is uncertain and taxa previously reported to be this fungus based on molecular identification must be confirmed. The uncertainty on the reported identification of this species translates into uncertainty on all the sections of this categorisation. The fungus has been reported on several plant species associated with leaf spots, leaf blights and fruit rots, and as an endophyte in asymptomatic plants. The species is reported from North and South America, Africa, Asia, non-EU Europe and Oceania. Coniella castaneicola is not known to occur in the EU. However, there is a key uncertainty on its presence and geographical distribution worldwide and in the EU due to its endophytic nature, the lack of systematic surveys and possible misidentifications. Coniella castaneicola is not included in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072 and there are no interceptions in the EU. Plants for planting, fresh fruits and soil and other growing media associated with infected plant debris are the main pathways for its entry into the EU. Host availability and climate suitability in parts of the EU are favourable for the establishment and spread of the fungus. Based on the scarce information available, the introduction and spread of C. castaneicola in the EU is not expected to cause substantial impacts, with a key uncertainty. Phytosanitary measures are available to prevent its introduction and spread in the EU. Because of lack of documented impacts, Coniella castaneicola does not satisfy all the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for this species to be regarded as potential Union quarantine pest.

Commodity risk assessment of Prunus spinosa plants from United Kingdom.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by potted plants and bundles of bare-root plants or cell grown young plants or graftwood/budwood of Prunus spinosa imported from the United Kingdom, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. All pests associated with the commodities were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. One quarantine pest, Scirtothrips dorsalis, one protected zone quarantine pest Bemisia tabaci (European population) and one non-regulated pest, the scale Eulecanium excrescens, that fulfilled all relevant criteria were selected for further evaluation. The risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical Dossier from the UK were evaluated, taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom, taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with E. excrescens being the pest most frequently expected on the imported potted plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9981 and 10,000 plants per 10,000 would be free from the above-mentioned scale.

Commodity risk assessment of Sorbus aucuparia plants from the UK.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'high risk plants, plant products and other objects'. Taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the applicant country, this Scientific Opinion covers the plant health risks posed by the following commodities: Sorbus aucuparia bare-root plants and rooted plants in pots up to 7 years old and specimen trees in pots up to 15 years old imported into the EU from the UK. A list of pests potentially associated with the commodities was compiled. The relevance of any pest was assessed based on evidence following defined criteria. Three EU quarantine pests (Entoleuca mammata and Phytophthora ramorum (non-EU isolates), Erwinia amylovora), were selected for further evaluation. For two of the selected pests (E. mammata and P. ramorum), the risk mitigation measures implemented in the UK and specified in the technical dossier were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies between the pests evaluated, with P. ramorum being the pest most frequently expected on the imported S. aucuparia plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9812 and 10,000 bare-root S. aucuparia plants per 10,000 will be free from P. ramorum.

Pest categorisation of Diaphania indica.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Diaphania indica (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), the cucumber moth for the territory of the European Union (EU), following the commodity risk assessment of Jasminum polyanthum from Uganda, in which D. indica was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union. D. indica is native to South Asian countries and is now distributed in tropical and subtropical areas of the Americas, Africa, Asia and Oceania. In the EU, D. indica occurs in Madeira (Portugal). It is a polyphagous pest, feeding on 16 genera in 6 plant families, primarily on plants of the Cucurbitaceae family. Important cucurbit hosts in the EU include cucumber (Cucumis sativus), melon (Cucumis melo), pumpkin (Cucurbita moschata), summer squash (Cucurbita pepo) and watermelon (Citrullus lanatus). Plants for planting, fruits and cut flowers provide potential pathways for entry into the EU. Climatic conditions and availability of host plants in southern EU countries would most probably allow this species to successfully establish and spread. Establishment could also occur in greenhouses in the northern parts of the EU. Economic impact in cultivated hosts, especially cucurbit crops is anticipated if establishment occurs. This insect is not listed in Annex II of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of entry and further spread. D. indica meets the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for this species to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

Pest categorisation of Shirahoshizo flavonotatus.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Shirahoshizo patruelis (Voss, 1937) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), following the commodity risk assessment of bonsai plants from China consisting of Pinus parviflora grafted on P. thunbergii, in which S. patruelis was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union (EU). This categorisation refers to S. flavonotatus, which is the pest's current valid scientific name. It is native to China and has never been recorded in the EU. It completes from 2 to 3 generations per year. Eggs are laid in cracks and crevices of trunks and branches with bark thickness of approximately 0.6-1.2 cm. The pest overwinters as an adult or as a mature larva under the bark. Plants for planting, wood with bark and wood products provide pathways for entry. Although the weevil has been reported to carry the nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, it is not considered a vector. Climatic conditions and availability of host plants in some EU countries would allow S. flavonotatus to establish and spread. Impact on Pinus spp. is anticipated. Recognising that the weevil is reported to attack both weakened and healthy trees, there is uncertainty on the magnitude of impact. Its recorded capacity to attack non-Asian Pinus species also indicates its ability to adapt and expand the range of trees it can utilise as hosts, which could include European Pinus species. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of entry and spread. S. flavonotatus meets the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for this species to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

Pest categorisation of Calepitrimerus baileyi.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Bailey's rust mite, Calepitrimerus baileyi Keifer (Acariformes: Eriophyidae), following the commodity risk assessment of Malus domestica plants from Türkiye performed by EFSA, in which C. baileyi was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union. This mite is not listed in Annex II of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. The eriophyid is known to occur in Africa, America, Asia, Europe (Greece and Serbia) and Oceania on Malus spp., which is the only confirmed host genus for C. baileyi. Plants for planting of Malus spp. are the main potential pathway for entry into the EU. However, plants for planting of the genus Malus Mill. are considered as high-risk plants (EU 2018/2019) and therefore prohibited from entering the EU unless granted a country-specific derogation. This is the case for the import of Malus spp. plants for planting from Serbia ((EU) 2020/1361 corrected by 2022/1309). Therefore, this derogation could provide a plausible entry pathway for C. baileyi into the EU. Climatic conditions and the ample availability of the host, Malus spp., in the EU are conducive for establishment, as proven by the occurrence of C. baileyi in Greece. However, the species is not reported as having an impact in Greece, despite reports of damage outside the EU. Measures to prevent further entry and spread of C. baileyi in the EU are available. C. baileyi satisfies all the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest. However, uncertainties about the distribution of C. baileyi within the EU and its impact on apples in the EU are considered key and affect the confidence of conclusions for this categorisation.

Commodity risk assessment of Tilia cordata and Tilia platyphyllos plants from the UK.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Tilia cordata and T. platyphyllos imported from the United Kingdom (UK) as: (a) bundles of budwood/graftwood; (b) 1- to 2-year-old whips, seedlings or transplants; (c) bundles of 1- to 2-year-old cell grown plants; (d) 1- to 7-year-old bare root single plants; and (e) up to 25-year-old single plants in pots, taking into account the available scientific information provided by the UK. A list of pests potentially associated with the commodities was compiled. The relevance of any pest was assessed based on evidence following defined criteria. None of the pests on the list fulfilled all relevant criteria and therefore none were selected for further evaluation. As a result, risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from the UK were listed, but not further evaluated.

Pest risk assessment of African Leucinodes species for the European Union.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment for the EU of African Leucinodes species (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), which are fruit and shoot borers, especially of eggplant type fruit. The assessment focused on (i) potential pathways for entry, (ii) distribution of infested imports within EU, (iii) climatic conditions favouring establishment, (iv) spread and (v) impact. Options for risk reduction are discussed, but their effectiveness was not quantified. Leucinodes spp. are widely distributed across sub-Saharan Africa but are little studied and they could be much more widespread in Africa than reported. Much African literature erroneously reports them as Leucinodes orbonalis which is restricted to Asia. The import of eggplant type fruit from sub-Saharan Africa consists of special fruit types and caters mostly to niche markets in the EU. The main pathway for entry is fruit of Solanum aethiopicum and exotic varieties of eggplant (S. melongena). CLIMEX modelling was used with two possible thresholds of ecoclimatic index (EI) to assess establishment potential. Climates favouring establishment occur mostly in southern Europe, where, based on human population, 14% of the imported produce is distributed across NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 30; or where 23% of the produce is distributed where EI ≥ 15. Over the next 5 years, an annual median estimate of ~ 8600 fruits, originating from Africa, and infested with African Leucinodes spp. are expected to enter EU NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 15 (90% CR ~ 570-52,700); this drops to ~ 5200 (90% CR ~ 350-32,100) in NUTS2 regions where EI ≥ 30. Escape of adult moths occurs mostly from consumer waste; considering uncertainties in pathway transfer, such as adult emergence, mate finding and survival of progeny, the annual median probability of a mated female establishing a founder population in NUTS regions where EI ≥ 15 was estimated to be 0.0078 (90% CR 0.00023-0.12125). This equates to a median estimate of one founder population ~ every 128 years (90% CR approximately one every 8-4280 years). Using an EI ≥ 30, the median number of founder populations establishing in the EU annually is 0.0048 (90% CR 0.0001-0.0739), equating to a median estimate of one founder population approximately every 210 years (90% CR approximately one every 14-7020 years). Under climate change for the period 2040-2059, the percent of infested produce going to suitable areas would be increased to 33% for EI ≥ 15 and to 21% for EI ≥ 30. Accordingly, the waiting time until the next founder population would be reduced to median estimates of 89 years for EI ≥ 15 (90% CR ~ 6-2980 years) and 139 years for EI ≥ 30 (90% CR 9-4655 years). If a founder population were to establish, it is estimated to spread at a rate of 0.65-7.0 km per year after a lag phase of 5-92 years. Leucinodes spp. are estimated to reduce eggplant yield by a median value of 4.5% (90% CR 0.67%-13%) if growers take no specific action, or 0.54% (90% CR between 0.13% and 1.9%) if they do take targeted action, matching previous estimates made during a risk assessment of L. orbonalis from Asia.

Risk assessment of Retithrips syriacus for the EU.

Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative risk assessment for the EU of Retithrips syriacus (Mayet) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae), a polyphagous thrips, regarded as a tropical/subtropical pest occurring in several countries of Africa, South America, Asia and in the EU in Cyprus. The current risk assessment focused on potential pathways for entry, the climatic conditions allowing establishment, the expected spread capacity and the impact considering a time horizon of 10 years (2023-2032). The Panel identified the import of cut roses, persimmons, table grapes, as well as plants for planting of the genera Acalypha and Terminalia from third countries and those of Persea americana (avocado) from Israel as the most relevant entry pathways to consider. Over the next 10 years, an annual median estimate of 95 (90% Certainty Range, CR, ranging from 13 to 1832) potential R. syriacus founder populations per year are expected to successfully transfer to a suitable host in the EU NUTS2 regions where the climatic conditions are predicted as suitable for establishment; this value drops to a median of 4.6 founder populations per year (90% CR: 1 every 1.9 years - 85.6 per year) after considering the actual probability of establishment of a potential founder population. The estimated number of founder population per year is mostly driven by the import of cut roses and plants for planting. If such founder populations were to establish, R. syriacus is estimated to spread at a median rate of 0.05 km/year (90% CR 0.02-2.30 km/year) after a median lag phase of 1.1 years (90% CR 0.3-3.3 years). The overall impact on yield (expressed as % of the total agricultural production) directly attributable to R. syriacus when considering: (i) the main R. syriacus hosts in the EU, (ii) the areas of the EU where establishment is possible, (iii) the current agricultural practices and (iv) the evidence of impact from the countries where the pest is established for a long time, was estimated at 0.065% as the median value of the uncertainty distribution (90% CR 0.001%-0.571%). Options for risk reduction are discussed, but the effectiveness was not quantified.

Pest categorisation of Crisicoccus seruratus.

Following the commodity risk assessments of Acer palmatum plants grafted on A. davidii from China, in which Crisicoccus matsumotoi (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) was identified as a pest of possible concern, the European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to conduct a pest categorisation of C. matsumotoi for the territory of the European Union. Recent taxonomic revision of the genus Crisisoccus concluded that C. matsumotoi is a synonym of C. seruratus; therefore, the categorisation will use the current valid name C. seruratus. It is an insect pest native to Japan, feeding on species in 13 plant families. There are reports of its presence also in China and the Republic of Korea, but there is great uncertainty about the identity of the species for these records. Therefore, there is uncertainty about the species referred to as C. matsumotoi in the commodity risk assessments of A. palmatum. C. seruratus is a multivoltine species. It has three generations per year and overwinters as a nymph. The most important crops that may be affected by C. seruratus are figs (Ficus carica), grapes (Vitis spp.), nashi pears (Pyrus pyrifolia var. culta), persimmons (Diospyros kaki) and walnuts (Juglans regia). Plants for planting and fruits provide potential pathways for entry into the EU. Host availability and climate suitability suggest that the central, northern and some areas of southern EU countries would be suitable for the establishment of C. seruratus. The introduction of this mealybug would likely have an economic impact in the EU through yield reduction and fruit downgrading because of honeydew deposition and the consequent growth of sooty moulds. This insect is not listed in Annex II of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of entry and spread of this species into the EU. C. seruratus satisfies the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.