Quantifying the impact of an abrupt reduction in mineral nitrogen fertilization on crop yield in the European Union.

Contemporary crop production in Europe relies on nitrogen (N) fertilization. Fertilizer prices soared in 2021-2022, and remained at historical high levels in 2023. These high prices invoked an immediate concern on the possible consequences for Europe's food production. In this study, we use a biogeochemical model framework to estimate the impact of reducing mineral N fertilization on crop yields in the European Union (EU). First, crop yields simulated with the biogeochemical DayCent model are evaluated against subnational yield data averaged for 2015-2018 reported by Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes in the EU for soft wheat, barley, grain maize and rapeseed. Then, we simulate three different scenarios where mineral N fertilization across the EU is abruptly reduced by respectively 5, 15 and 25 %, and compare yields to the projected baseline for contemporary conditions (2019-2022). The model evaluation gives r2 values ranging from 0.28 (rapeseed) to 0.61 (soft wheat) and root mean square errors (RMSE) ranging from 0.6 (rapeseed) to 1.95 t ha-1 (maize). The model shows a reduction in yield per crop at the EU level up to 2.1, 6.4 and 11.2 % with the 5, 15 and 25 % reduction scenario, respectively. Different crops show different percentage reduction in yield following a reduction in mineral N fertilization, showing a legacy effect over the years and depending on the availability of organic fertilizer. The strongest relative yield reduction occurs for soft wheat for all three scenarios. Even with 25 % drop in mineral N fertilization, maize yield in the Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark is not significantly reduced, because of the high N surplus and large share of organic fertilization in these countries. This process-based modelling study provides spatially explicit, high resolution information on the response of crop yields to N fertilizer input reductions, helping policy-makers in decision-making on food security and environmentally-friendly food systems.

Evidence library of meta-analytical literature assessing the sustainability of agriculture - a dataset.

In the last two decades, an exponentially growing number of meta-analyses (MAs) synthesize thousands of peer-reviewed studies on the environmental impacts of farming practices (FPs). This paper describes the iMAP-FP evidence library, a comprehensive dataset on the effects of 34 categories of FPs (such as agronomic practices, cropping and livestock systems, land management options and mitigation techniques) on 34 impacts including climate mitigation, soil health, environmental pollution, water use, nutrients cycling, biodiversity, and agricultural productivity. Through systematic screening, 570 MAs published since 2000 were selected and categorized according to the type of FP. We assessed their impacts, the geographic regions covered, and their quality. We extracted 3,811 effects and their statistical significance associated with sustainable FPs (intervention) compared to a control (typically conventional agriculture) across 223 different intervention-control pairs. Our dataset is accompanied with an online free-access library, which includes a catalogue of synthetic reports summarizing the available evidence on each evaluated FP.

European Union crop map 2022: Earth observation's 10-meter dive into Europe's crop tapestry.

To provide the information needed for a detailed monitoring of crop types across the European Union (EU), we present an advanced 10-metre resolution map for the EU and Ukraine with 19 crop types for 2022, updating the 2018 version. Using Earth Observation (EO) and in-situ data from Eurostat's Land Use and Coverage Area Frame Survey (LUCAS) 2022, the methodology included 134,684 LUCAS Copernicus polygons, Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery, land surface temperature and a digital elevation model. Based on this data, two classification layers were developed using a Random Forest machine learning approach: a primary map and a gap-filling map to address cloud-covered gaps. The combined maps, covering 27 EU countries, show an overall accuracy of 79.3% for seven major land cover classes and 70.6% for all 19 crop types. The trained model was used to derive the 2022 map for Ukraine, demonstrating its robustness even in regions without labelled samples for model training.

Crop Identification Using Deep Learning on LUCAS Crop Cover Photos.

Massive and high-quality in situ data are essential for Earth-observation-based agricultural monitoring. However, field surveying requires considerable organizational effort and money. Using computer vision to recognize crop types on geo-tagged photos could be a game changer allowing for the provision of timely and accurate crop-specific information. This study presents the first use of the largest multi-year set of labelled close-up in situ photos systematically collected across the European Union from the Land Use Cover Area frame Survey (LUCAS). Benefiting from this unique in situ dataset, this study aims to benchmark and test computer vision models to recognize major crops on close-up photos statistically distributed spatially and through time between 2006 and 2018 in a practical agricultural policy relevant context. The methodology makes use of crop calendars from various sources to ascertain the mature stage of the crop, of an extensive paradigm for the hyper-parameterization of MobileNet from random parameter initialization, and of various techniques from information theory in order to carry out more accurate post-processing filtering on results. The work has produced a dataset of 169,460 images of mature crops for the 12 classes, out of which 15,876 were manually selected as representing a clean sample without any foreign objects or unfavorable conditions. The best-performing model achieved a macro F1 (M-F1) of 0.75 on an imbalanced test dataset of 8642 photos. Using metrics from information theory, namely the equivalence reference probability, resulted in an increase of 6%. The most unfavorable conditions for taking such images, across all crop classes, were found to be too early or late in the season. The proposed methodology shows the possibility of using minimal auxiliary data outside the images themselves in order to achieve an M-F1 of 0.82 for labelling between 12 major European crops.

The extreme 2016 wheat yield failure in France.

France suffered, in 2016, the most extreme wheat yield decline in recent history, with some districts losing 55% yield. To attribute causes, we combined the largest coherent detailed wheat field experimental dataset with statistical and crop model techniques, climate information, and yield physiology. The 2016 yield was composed of up to 40% fewer grains that were up to 30% lighter than expected across eight research stations in France. The flowering stage was affected by prolonged cloud cover and heavy rainfall when 31% of the loss in grain yield was incurred from reduced solar radiation and 19% from floret damage. Grain filling was also affected as 26% of grain yield loss was caused by soil anoxia, 11% by fungal foliar diseases, and 10% by ear blight. Compounding climate effects caused the extreme yield decline. The likelihood of these compound factors recurring under future climate change is estimated to change with a higher frequency of extremely low wheat yields.

Harmonised LUCAS in-situ land cover and use database for field surveys from 2006 to 2018 in the European Union.

Accurately characterizing land surface changes with Earth Observation requires geo-located ground truth. In the European Union (EU), a tri-annual surveyed sample of land cover and land use has been collected since 2006 under the Land Use/Cover Area frame Survey (LUCAS). A total of 1351293 observations at 651780 unique locations for 106 variables along with 5.4 million photos were collected during five LUCAS surveys. Until now, these data have never been harmonised into one database, limiting full exploitation of the information. This paper describes the LUCAS point sampling/surveying methodology, including collection of standard variables such as land cover, environmental parameters, and full resolution landscape and point photos, and then describes the harmonisation process. The resulting harmonised database is the most comprehensive in-situ dataset on land cover and use in the EU. The database is valuable for geo-spatial and statistical analysis of land use and land cover change. Furthermore, its potential to provide multi-temporal in-situ data will be enhanced by recent computational advances such as deep learning.

Verifiable soil organic carbon modelling to facilitate regional reporting of cropland carbon change: A test case in the Czech Republic.

Regional monitoring, reporting and verification of soil organic carbon change occurring in managed cropland are indispensable to support carbon-related policies. Rapidly evolving gridded agronomic models can facilitate these efforts throughout Europe. However, their performance in modelling soil carbon dynamics at regional scale is yet unexplored. Importantly, as such models are often driven by large-scale inputs, they need to be benchmarked against field experiments. We elucidate the level of detail that needs to be incorporated in gridded models to robustly estimate regional soil carbon dynamics in managed cropland, testing the approach for regions in the Czech Republic. We first calibrated the biogeochemical Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model against long-term experiments. Subsequently, we examined the EPIC model within a top-down gridded modelling framework constructed for European agricultural soils from Europe-wide datasets and regional land-use statistics. We explored the top-down, as opposed to a bottom-up, modelling approach for reporting agronomically relevant and verifiable soil carbon dynamics. In comparison with a no-input baseline, the regional EPIC model suggested soil carbon changes (~0.1-0.5 Mg C ha-1 y-1) consistent with empirical-based studies for all studied agricultural practices. However, inaccurate soil information, crop management inputs, or inappropriate model calibration may undermine regional modelling of cropland management effect on carbon since each of the three components carry uncertainty (~0.5-1.5 Mg C ha-1 y-1) that is substantially larger than the actual effect of agricultural practices relative to the no-input baseline. Besides, inaccurate soil data obtained from the background datasets biased the simulated carbon trends compared to observations, thus hampering the model's verifiability at the locations of field experiments. Encouragingly, the top-down agricultural management derived from regional land-use statistics proved suitable for the estimation of soil carbon dynamics consistently with actual field practices. Despite sensitivity to biophysical parameters, we found a robust scalability of the soil organic carbon routine for various climatic regions and soil types represented in the Czech experiments. The model performed better than the tier 1 methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which indicates a great potential for improved carbon change modelling over larger political regions.

Detecting flowering phenology in oil seed rape parcels with Sentinel-1 and -2 time series.

A novel methodology is proposed to robustly map oil seed rape (OSR) flowering phenology from time series generated from the Copernicus Sentinel-1 (S1) and Sentinel-2 (S2) sensors. The time series are averaged at parcel level, initially for a set of 229 reference parcels for which multiple phenological observations on OSR flowering have been collected from April 21 to May 19, 2018. The set of OSR parcels is extended to a regional sample of 32,355 OSR parcels derived from a regional S2 classification. The study area comprises the northern Brandenburg and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (N) and the southern Bavaria (S) regions in Germany. A method was developed to automatically compute peak flowering at parcel level from the S2 time signature of the Normalized Difference Yellow Index (NDYI) and from the local minimum in S1 VV polarized backscattering coefficients. Peak flowering was determined at a temporal accuracy of 1 to 4 days. A systematic flowering delay of 1 day was observed in the S1 detection compared to S2. Peak flowering differed by 12 days between the N and S. Considerable local variation was observed in the N-S parcel-level flowering gradient. Additional in-situ phenology observations at 70 Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) stations confirm the spatial and temporal consistency between S1 and S2 signatures and flowering phenology across both regions. Conditions during flowering strongly determine OSR yield, therefore, the capacity to continuously characterize spatially the timing of key flowering dates across large areas is key. To illustrate this, expected flowering dates were simulated assuming a single OSR variety with a 425 growing degree days (GDD) requirement to reach flowering. This GDD requirement was calculated based on parcel-level peak flowering dates and temperatures accumulated from 25-km gridded meteorological data. The correlation between simulated and S2 observed peak flowering dates still equaled 0.84 and 0.54 for the N and S respectively. These Sentinel-based parcel-level flowering parameters can be combined with weather data to support in-season predictions of OSR yield, area, and production. Our approach identified the unique temporal signatures of S1 and S2 associated with OSR flowering and can now be applied to monitor OSR phenology for parcels across the globe.

Environmental footprint family to address local to planetary sustainability and deliver on the SDGs.

The number of publications on environmental footprint indicators has been growing rapidly, but with limited efforts to integrate different footprints into a coherent framework. Such integration is important for comprehensive understanding of environmental issues, policy formulation and assessment of trade-offs between different environmental concerns. Here, we systematize published footprint studies and define a family of footprints that can be used for the assessment of environmental sustainability. We identify overlaps between different footprints and analyse how they relate to the nine planetary boundaries and visualize the crucial information they provide for local and planetary sustainability. In addition, we assess how the footprint family delivers on measuring progress towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), considering its ability to quantify environmental pressures along the supply chain and relating them to the water-energy-food-ecosystem (WEFE) nexus and ecosystem services. We argue that the footprint family is a flexible framework where particular members can be included or excluded according to the context or area of concern. Our paper is based upon a recent workshop bringing together global leading experts on existing environmental footprint indicators.

Global relative species loss due to first-generation biofuel production for the transport sector.

The global demand for biofuels in the transport sector may lead to significant biodiversity impacts via multiple human pressures. Biodiversity assessments of biofuels, however, seldom simultaneously address several impact pathways, which can lead to biased comparisons with fossil fuels. The goal of the present study was to quantify the direct influence of habitat loss, water consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on potential global species richness loss due to the current production of first-generation biodiesel from soybean and rapeseed and bioethanol from sugarcane and corn. We found that the global relative species loss due to biofuel production exceeded that of fossil petrol and diesel production in more than 90% of the locations considered. Habitat loss was the dominating stressor with Chinese corn, Brazilian soybean and Brazilian sugarcane having a particularly large biodiversity impact. Spatial variation within countries was high, with 90th percentiles differing by a factor of 9 to 22 between locations. We conclude that displacing fossil fuels with first-generation biofuels will likely negatively affect global biodiversity, no matter which feedstock is used or where it is produced. Environmental policy may therefore focus on the introduction of other renewable options in the transport sector.

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming.

Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre-industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi-crop and multi-climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by -2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and -2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980-2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter-annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer-India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.

Impacts and Uncertainties of +2°C of Climate Change and Soil Degradation on European Crop Calorie Supply.

Even if global warming is kept below +2°C, European agriculture will be significantly impacted. Soil degradation may amplify these impacts substantially and thus hamper crop production further. We quantify biophysical consequences and bracket uncertainty of +2°C warming on calories supply from 10 major crops and vulnerability to soil degradation in Europe using crop modeling. The Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model together with regional climate projections from the European branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) was used for this purpose. A robustly positive calorie yield change was estimated for the EU Member States except for some regions in Southern and South-Eastern Europe. The mean impacts range from +30 Gcal ha-1 in the north, through +25 and +20 Gcal ha-1 in Western and Eastern Europe, respectively, to +10 Gcal ha-1 in the south if soil degradation and heat impacts are not accounted for. Elevated CO2 and increased temperature are the dominant drivers of the simulated yield changes in high-input agricultural systems. The growth stimulus due to elevated CO2 may offset potentially negative yield impacts of temperature increase by +2°C in most of Europe. Soil degradation causes a calorie vulnerability ranging from 0 to 50 Gcal ha-1 due to insufficient compensation for nutrient depletion and this might undermine climate benefits in many regions, if not prevented by adaptation measures, especially in Eastern and North-Eastern Europe. Uncertainties due to future potentials for crop intensification are about 2-50 times higher than climate change impacts.

Causes and implications of the unforeseen 2016 extreme yield loss in the breadbasket of France.

In 2016, France, one of the leading wheat-producing and wheat-exporting regions in the world suffered its most extreme yield loss in over half a century. Yet, yield forecasting systems failed to anticipate this event. We show that this unprecedented event is a new type of compound extreme with a conjunction of abnormally warm temperatures in late autumn and abnormally wet conditions in the following spring. A binomial logistic regression accounting for fall and spring conditions is able to capture key yield loss events since 1959. Based on climate projections, we show that the conditions that led to the 2016 wheat yield loss are projected to become more frequent in the future. The increased likelihood of such compound extreme events poses a challenge: farming systems and yield forecasting systems, which often support them, must adapt.

Uncertainty in soil data can outweigh climate impact signals in global crop yield simulations.

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are increasingly used for agro-environmental assessments and estimates of climate change impacts on food production. Recently, the influence of climate data and weather variability on GGCM outcomes has come under detailed scrutiny, unlike the influence of soil data. Here we compare yield variability caused by the soil type selected for GGCM simulations to weather-induced yield variability. Without fertilizer application, soil-type-related yield variability generally outweighs the simulated inter-annual variability in yield due to weather. Increasing applications of fertilizer and irrigation reduce this variability until it is practically negligible. Importantly, estimated climate change effects on yield can be either negative or positive depending on the chosen soil type. Soils thus have the capacity to either buffer or amplify these impacts. Our findings call for improvements in soil data available for crop modelling and more explicit accounting for soil variability in GGCM simulations.

Global spatially explicit CO2 emission metrics for forest bioenergy.

Emission metrics aggregate climate impacts of greenhouse gases to common units such as CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq.). Examples include the global warming potential (GWP), the global temperature change potential (GTP) and the absolute sustained emission temperature (aSET). Despite the importance of biomass as a primary energy supplier in existing and future scenarios, emission metrics for CO2 from forest bioenergy are only available on a case-specific basis. Here, we produce global spatially explicit emission metrics for CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy and illustrate their applications to global emissions in 2015 and until 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario. We obtain global average values of 0.49 ± 0.03 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2(-1) (mean ± standard deviation) for GWP, 0.05 ± 0.05 kgCO2-eq. kgCO2(-1) for GTP, and 2.14·10(-14) ± 0.11·10(-14) °C (kg yr(-1))(-1) for aSET. We explore metric dependencies on temperature, precipitation, biomass turnover times and extraction rates of forest residues. We find relatively high emission metrics with low precipitation, long rotation times and low residue extraction rates. Our results provide a basis for assessing CO2 emissions from forest bioenergy under different indicators and across various spatial and temporal scales.

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts.

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon-climate feedbacks.

Mapping global cropland and field size.

A new 1 km global IIASA-IFPRI cropland percentage map for the baseline year 2005 has been developed which integrates a number of individual cropland maps at global to regional to national scales. The individual map products include existing global land cover maps such as GlobCover 2005 and MODIS v.5, regional maps such as AFRICOVER and national maps from mapping agencies and other organizations. The different products are ranked at the national level using crowdsourced data from Geo-Wiki to create a map that reflects the likelihood of cropland. Calibration with national and subnational crop statistics was then undertaken to distribute the cropland within each country and subnational unit. The new IIASA-IFPRI cropland product has been validated using very high-resolution satellite imagery via Geo-Wiki and has an overall accuracy of 82.4%. It has also been compared with the EarthStat cropland product and shows a lower root mean square error on an independent data set collected from Geo-Wiki. The first ever global field size map was produced at the same resolution as the IIASA-IFPRI cropland map based on interpolation of field size data collected via a Geo-Wiki crowdsourcing campaign. A validation exercise of the global field size map revealed satisfactory agreement with control data, particularly given the relatively modest size of the field size data set used to create the map. Both are critical inputs to global agricultural monitoring in the frame of GEOGLAM and will serve the global land modelling and integrated assessment community, in particular for improving land use models that require baseline cropland information. These products are freely available for downloading from the http://cropland.geo-wiki.org website.

African crop yield reductions due to increasingly unbalanced Nitrogen and Phosphorus consumption.

The impact of soil nutrient depletion on crop production has been known for decades, but robust assessments of the impact of increasingly unbalanced nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) application rates on crop production are lacking. Here, we use crop response functions based on 741 FAO maize crop trials and EPIC crop modeling across Africa to examine maize yield deficits resulting from unbalanced N : P applications under low, medium, and high input scenarios, for past (1975), current, and future N : P mass ratios of respectively, 1 : 0.29, 1 : 0.15, and 1 : 0.05. At low N inputs (10 kg ha(-1)), current yield deficits amount to 10% but will increase up to 27% under the assumed future N : P ratio, while at medium N inputs (50 kg N ha(-1)), future yield losses could amount to over 40%. The EPIC crop model was then used to simulate maize yields across Africa. The model results showed relative median future yield reductions at low N inputs of 40%, and 50% at medium and high inputs, albeit with large spatial variability. Dominant low-quality soils such as Ferralsols, which are strongly adsorbing P, and Arenosols with a low nutrient retention capacity, are associated with a strong yield decline, although Arenosols show very variable crop yield losses at low inputs. Optimal N : P ratios, i.e. those where the lowest amount of applied P produces the highest yield (given N input) where calculated with EPIC to be as low as 1 : 0.5. Finally, we estimated the additional P required given current N inputs, and given N inputs that would allow Africa to close yield gaps (ca. 70%). At current N inputs, P consumption would have to increase 2.3-fold to be optimal, and to increase 11.7-fold to close yield gaps. The P demand to overcome these yield deficits would provide a significant additional pressure on current global extraction of P resources.

Human-induced nitrogen-phosphorus imbalances alter natural and managed ecosystems across the globe.

The availability of carbon from rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and of nitrogen from various human-induced inputs to ecosystems is continuously increasing; however, these increases are not paralleled by a similar increase in phosphorus inputs. The inexorable change in the stoichiometry of carbon and nitrogen relative to phosphorus has no equivalent in Earth's history. Here we report the profound and yet uncertain consequences of the human imprint on the phosphorus cycle and nitrogen:phosphorus stoichiometry for the structure, functioning and diversity of terrestrial and aquatic organisms and ecosystems. A mass balance approach is used to show that limited phosphorus and nitrogen availability are likely to jointly reduce future carbon storage by natural ecosystems during this century. Further, if phosphorus fertilizers cannot be made increasingly accessible, the crop yields projections of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment imply an increase of the nutrient deficit in developing regions.

Climate extremes and the carbon cycle.

The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate an expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget.