MELD 3.0 adequately predicts mortality and renal replacement therapy requirements in patients with alcohol-associated hepatitis.

Background & Aims: Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score better predicts mortality in alcohol-associated hepatitis (AH) but could underestimate severity in women and malnourished patients. Using a global cohort, we assessed the ability of the MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to hospital with AH from 2009 to 2019. The main outcome was all-cause 30-day mortality. We compared the AUC using DeLong's method and also performed a time-dependent AUC with competing risks analysis. Results: A total of 2,124 patients were included from 28 centres from 10 countries on three continents (median age 47.2 ± 11.2 years, 29.9% women, 71.3% with underlying cirrhosis). The median MELD 3.0 score at admission was 25 (20-33), with an estimated survival of 73.7% at 30 days. The MELD 3.0 score had a better performance in predicting 30-day mortality (AUC:0.761, 95%CI:0.732-0.791) compared with MELD sodium (MELD-Na; AUC: 0.744, 95% CI: 0.713-0.775; p = 0.042) and Maddrey's discriminant function (mDF) (AUC: 0.724, 95% CI: 0.691-0.757; p = 0.013). However, MELD 3.0 did not perform better than traditional MELD (AUC: 0.753, 95% CI: 0.723-0.783; p = 0.300) and Age-Bilirubin-International Normalised Ratio-Creatinine (ABIC) (AUC:0.757, 95% CI: 0.727-0.788; p = 0.765). These results were consistent in competing-risk analysis, where MELD 3.0 (AUC: 0.757, 95% CI: 0.724-0.790) predicted better 30-day mortality compared with MELD-Na (AUC: 0.739, 95% CI: 0.708-0.770; p = 0.028) and mDF (AUC:0.717, 95% CI: 0.687-0.748; p = 0.042). The MELD 3.0 score was significantly better in predicting renal replacement therapy requirements during admission compared with the other scores (AUC: 0.844, 95% CI: 0.805-0.883). Conclusions: MELD 3.0 demonstrated better performance compared with MELD-Na and mDF in predicting 30-day and 90-day mortality, and was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements during admission for AH. However, further prospective studies are needed to validate its extensive use in AH. Impact and implications: Severe AH has high short-term mortality. The establishment of treatments and liver transplantation depends on mortality prediction. We evaluated the performance of the new MELD 3.0 score to predict short-term mortality in AH in a large global cohort. MELD 3.0 performed better in predicting 30- and 90-day mortality compared with MELD-Na and mDF, but was similar to MELD and ABIC scores. MELD 3.0 was the best predictor of renal replacement therapy requirements. Thus, further prospective studies are needed to support the wide use of MELD 3.0 in AH.

Follow-up of gallbladder polyps in a high-risk population of gallbladder cancer: a cohort study and multivariate survival competing risk analysis.

BACKGROUND: The risk of neoplasia in gallbladder polyps seems to be low, but the evidence from populations at high-risk of gallbladder cancer is limited. We aimed to estimate the risk and to identify the factors associated with neoplastic polyps in a high-risk Hispanic population. METHODS: A retrospective cohort was recruited between January 2010 and December 2019 at a Chilean university center. Multivariate survival analyses were conducted. Fine-Gray models were fitted to account for competing risks. Covariate adjustment was conducted using propensity scores. The main outcome was the development of gallbladder adenomas or adenocarcinoma. RESULTS: Overall, 748 patients were included, 59.6% underwent cholecystectomy. The median follow-up of patients not subjected to cholecystectomy was 54.7 months (12-128.6 months). Seventeen patients (2.27%) developed the outcome. After adjustment by age, sex, intralesional blood flow, lithiasis and gallbladder wall thickening, only polyp size (≥10 mm, adjusted-HR: 15.01, 95%CI: 5.4-48.2) and number of polyps (≥3 polyps, adjusted-HR: 0.11, 95%CI: 0.01-0.55) were associated with neoplasia. CONCLUSION: In a Hispanic population at high-risk for gallbladder cancer, gallbladder polyps seem to have a low risk of neoplasia. Polyp size was the main risk factor, while having multiple polyps was associated with an underlying benign condition.

Are higher doses of proton pump inhibitors better in acute peptic bleeding? / ¿Vale la pena utilizar dosis altas de inhibidores de la bomba de protones en la hemorragia péptica aguda?

Although there is broad consensus about the benefits of proton pump inhibitors in acute upper peptic bleeding, there is still controversy over their optimal dosing. Searching in Epistemonikos database, which is maintained by screening 30 databases, we identified six systematic reviews including 27 randomized trials addressing this question. We combined the evidence using meta-analysis and generated a summary of findings table following the GRADE approach. We concluded high-dose proton pump inhibitors probably result in little or no difference in re-bleeding rate or mortality. The risk/benefit and cost/benefit balance probably favor use of low-doses.

Si bien existe consenso acerca de la utilidad de los inhibidores de la bomba de protones en la hemorragia digestiva péptica aguda, persiste la controversia sobre cuál es la dosis óptima. Utilizando la base de datos Epistemonikos, la cual es mantenida mediante búsquedas en 30 bases de datos, identificamos seis revisiones sistemáticas que en conjunto incluyen 27 estudios aleatorizados evaluando esta pregunta. Realizamos un metanálisis y tablas de resumen de los resultados utilizando el método GRADE. Concluimos que las dosis altas de inhibidores de la bomba de protones probablemente resultan en poca o nula diferencia en el riesgo de resangrado y mortalidad. El balance riesgo/beneficio y costo/beneficio son probablemente desfavorables a la utilización de dosis altas.