The effect of different extreme weather events on attitudes toward climate change.

Can exposure to extreme weather change political opinion and preferences about climate change? There is a growing literature on both the effects of extreme weather events and the factors explaining attitudes toward global warming, though there remains no clear consensus about whether being exposed to extreme weather influences public opinion about climate change. We contribute to this literature by studying the impact of a variety of extreme weather events associated with climate variability, including severe storms, floods, fires, and hurricanes, on attitudes toward climate change. Specifically, we use a three-wave panel survey and a dynamic difference-in-differences design to analyze public opinion data at the individual level in the US. We find that exposure to only one extreme weather type-fires-has a small but significant effect on acknowledging the existence of climate change and supporting the need for action. However, that impact quickly vanishes, and other types of extreme weather do not appear to have any effect on opinion.

Anti-elite attitudes and support for independent candidates.

The ideological dispute between left and right has dominated the political discussion for decades in multiple countries across the globe. However, in recent years people vs. elite debates have replaced traditional ideological conflicts in explaining voters' electoral decisions. In this paper, we investigate whether anti-elite attitudes contribute to a key political outcome: the increase in successful independent candidates. We implement a conjoint experiment in Chile, where anti-elite sentiments and the number of successful independent politicians are currently prominent. We find that preferences for independent candidates largely increase among voters with anti-elite orientations. In a context where traditional parties face difficult times, such beliefs are key to understanding the factors behind support for candidates with no party affiliation. This insight is important because electing independent politicians can promote a personalistic style of politics, undermine democratic accountability, and foster conflict between the executive and legislative branches.