The potential range of west Asian apple species Malus orientalis Uglitzk. under climate change.

The wild relatives of cultivated apples would be an ideal source of diversity for breeding new varieties, which could potentially grow in diverse habitats shaped by climate change. However, there is still a lack of knowledge about the potential distribution of these species. The aim of the presented work was the understand the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution and habitat fragmentation of Caucasian crab apple (Malus orientalis Uglitzk.) and the designation of areas of high interest according to climatic conditions. We used the MaxEnt models and Morphological-Spatial Analysis (MSPA) to evaluate the potential distribution, suitability changes, habitat fragmentation, and connectivity throughout the species range in Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, Russia, and Iran. The results revealed that the potentially suitable range of M. orientalis encompasses 858,877 km², 635,279 km² and 456,795 km² under the present, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The range fragmentation analysis demonstrated a notable shift in the edge/core ratio, which increased from 50.95% in the current scenario to even 67.70% in the future. The northern part of the range (Armenia, northern Georgia, southern Russia), as well as the central and western parts of Hyrcania will be a core of the species range with suitable habitats and a high connectivity between M. orientalis populations and could work as major refugia for the studied species. However, in the Zagros and central Turkey, the potential range will shrink due to the lack of suitable climatic conditions, and the edge/core ratio will grow. In the southern part of the range, a decline of M. orientalis habitats is expected due to changing climatic conditions. The future outlook suggests that the Hyrcanian forest and the Caucasus region could serve as important refuges for M. orientalis. This study helps to understand spatial changes in species' range in response to climate change and can help develop conservation strategies. This is all the more important given the species' potential use in future breeding programs aimed at enriching the gene pool of cultivated apple varieties.

Level of IL-6, TNF, and IL-1ß and age-related diseases: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Introduction: Chronic low-grade inflammation is an important aspect of morbidity and mortality in older adults. The level of circulating pro-inflammatory cytokines (interleukin (IL)-6, tumor necrosis factor (TNF) or IL-1ß) is a risk factor in cardiovascular and neurodegenerative diseases and is also associated with sarcopenia and frailties. The objective of this study was to assess each cytokine: IL-6, TNF, and IL-1ß separately in the elderly with comorbidities against controls without diseases according to the data published in the available literature. Methods: The electronic bibliographic PubMed database was systematically searched to select all the relevant studies published up to July 2023. The total number of the subjects involved in the meta-analysis included patients with diseases (n=8154) and controls (n=33967). Results: The overall concentration of IL-6 was found to be higher in patients with diseases compared to controls and the difference was statistically significant, with a p-value of <0.001 (SMD, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.12-0.19). The heterogeneity was considerable with Q = 109.97 (P <0.0001) and I2 = 79.2%. The potential diagnostic usefulness of IL-6 was confirmed by odds ratio (OR) analysis (OR: 1.03, 95% CI (1.01; 1.05), p=0.0029). The concentration of both TNF and IL-1ß was elevated in the control group compared to patients and amounted to SMD -0.03; 95% CI, -0.09-0.02, p-value 0.533 and SMD-0.29; 95% CI, -0.47- -0.12; p = 0.001, respectively. For TNF, however, the difference was statistically insignificant. Discussion: IL-6, unlike TNF and IL-1ß, could be a useful and convenient marker of peripheral inflammation in older adults with various comorbidities.

Does excess body weight accelerate immune aging?

BACKGROUND: Overweight and obesity in older adults increase the risk of a range of comorbidities by sustaining chronic inflammation and thus enhancing immunosenescence. This study aimed to assess whether excess body mass affected disproportion in T lymphocytes. Therefore, the study was designed to explain whether excess body mass in older individuals affected the disproportion in numbers of T lymphocytes and whether anthropometric indices and immune risk profile expressed as CD4/CD8 ratio are diagnostically useful in the analysis of immunosenescence. MATERIALS & METHODS: One hundred three individuals aged 73.6 ± 3.1 years were allocated to the normal body mass (body mass index (BMI) 18.5-24.9 kg/m2,n = 39), the pre-obesity (BMI 25.0-29.9 kg/m2, n = 44) or the obesity (BMI ≥30.0 kg/m2, n = 20) group, based on WHO recommendations. Details on the subjects' medical history and lifestyle were obtained by health questionnaire. Anthropometric analysis was performed by bioelectrical impedance method, biochemical analysis was made by the automatic analyzer and ELISA immunoassays, and T and B lymphocyte counts were determined by eight-parameter flow cytometry. Additionally, visceral adiposity index, body adiposity index (BAI), and body shape index (ABSI) were evaluated based on body circumference, BMI and lipid-lipoprotein profile measurements. RESULTS: The highest percentage of CD3+CD4+ T lymphocytes (59.4 ± 12.6 %) and the lowest CD3+CD8+ T lymphocytes (31.6 ± 10.0 %) were noted in patients the obesity group. The highest cut-off value of 1.9 for CD4/CD8 ratio was recorded in the normal body mass vs pre-obesity model. CD4/CD8 ratio > 2.5 was recorded in >20 % of our pre-obesity and obesity groups while 64.5 % of the normal body mass group had CD4/CD8 ratio < 1. High diagnostic usefulness was demonstrated for both BAI and lipid accumulation product (LAP) (AUC values of ~0.800 and ~ 0.900 respectively) in three models: normal body mass vs pre-obesity, normal body mass vs obesity, and pre-obesity vs obesity. CONCLUSION: The odds ratios (OR) for CD4/CD8 ratio in the normal body mass vs obesity model (OR = 16.1, 95%CI 3.8-93.6) indicated a potential diagnostic value of T lymphocytes for clinical prognosis of immune aging in relation to excess body weight in older adults. High values of AUC obtained for the following models: CD4/CD8 + BAI (AUC = 0.927), CD4/CD8 + LAP (AUC = 1.00), CD4/CD8 + ABSI (AUC = 0.865) proved to provide excellent discrimination between older adults with obesity and with normal body mass.

The Perspective of Arctic-Alpine Species in Southernmost Localities: The Example of Kalmia procumbens in the Pyrenees and Carpathians.

High-mountain and arctic plants are considered especially sensitive to climate change because of their close adaptation to the cold environment. Kalmia procumbens, a typical arctic-alpine species, reaches southernmost European localities in the Pyrenees and Carpathians. The aim of this study was the assessment and comparison of the current potential niche areas of K. procumbens in the Pyrenees and Carpathians and their possible reduction due to climate change, depending on the scenario. The realized niches of K. procumbens in the Pyrenees are compact, while those in the Carpathians are dispersed. In both mountain chains, the species occurs in the alpine and subalpine vegetation belts, going down to elevations of about 1500-1600 m, while the most elevated localities in the Pyrenees are at ca. 3000 m, about 500 m higher than those in the Carpathians. The localities of K. procumbens in the Carpathians have a more continental climate than those in the Pyrenees, with lower precipitation and temperatures but higher seasonality of temperature and precipitation. The species covered a larger area of geographic range during the Last Glacial Maximum, but its geographic range was reduced during the mid-Holocene. Due to climate warming, a reduction in the potential area of occurrence could be expected in 2100; this reduction is expected to be strong in the Carpathians and moderate in the Pyrenees.

Evolutionary history of Castanea sativa in the Caucasus driven by Middle and Late Pleistocene paleoenvironmental changes.

Due to global climate cooling and aridification since the Paleogene, members of the Neogene flora were extirpated from the Northern Hemisphere or were confined to a few refugial areas. For some species, the final reduction/extinction came in the Pleistocene, but some others have survived climatic transformations up to the present. This has occurred in Castanea sativa, a species of high commercial value in Europe and a significant component of the Caucasian forests' biodiversity. In contrast to the European range, neither the historical biogeography nor the population genetic structure of the species in its isolated Caucasian range has been clarified. Here, based on a survey of 21 natural populations from the Caucasus and a single one from Europe, we provide a likely biogeographic reconstruction and genetic diversity details. By applying Bayesian inference, species distribution modelling and fossil pollen data, we estimated (i) the time of the Caucasian-European divergence during the Middle Pleistocene, (ii) the time of divergence among Caucasian lineages and (iii) outlined the glacial refugia for species. The climate changes related to the Early-Middle Pleistocene Transition are proposed as the major drivers of the intraspecific divergence and European-Caucasian disjunction for the species, while the impact of the last glacial cycle was of marginal importance.

Biodiversity protection against anthropogenic climate change: Conservation prioritization of Castanea sativa in the South Caucasus based on genetic and ecological metrics.

The climate drives species distribution and genetic diversity; the latter defines the adaptability of populations and species. The ongoing climate crisis induces tree decline in many regions, compromising the mitigation potential of forests. Scientific-based strategies for prioritizing forest tree populations are critical to managing the impact of climate change. Identifying future climate refugia, which are locations naturally buffering the negative impact of climate change, may facilitate local conservation. In this work, we conducted the populations' prioritization for Castanea sativa (sweet chestnut), a Neogene relict growing in the Caucasus global biodiversity hotspot. We generated genetic and ecological metrics for 21 sites in Georgia and Azerbaijan, which cover the natural range of sweet chestnut across the region. We demonstrated that climate primarily drives the pattern of genetic diversity in C. sativa, proved with a significant isolation-by-environment model. In future, climate change may significantly reorganize the species' genetic diversity, inducing even some genetic loss, especially in the very distinct eastern fringe of the species range in Azerbaijan. Based on our combined approach, we mapped populations suitable for ex situ and in situ conservation, accounting for genetic variability and the location of future climate refugia.

The influence of climate and population density on Buxus hyrcana potential distribution and habitat connectivity.

Changes in environmental factors, human impact, and interactions between them accelerate the extinction of woody species. Therefore, conservation programs are needed to protect endangered taxa. However, the relationship between climate, habitat fragmentation, and anthropogenic activities and their consequences are still not well understood. In this work, we aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change and human population density on the Buxus hyrcana Pojark distribution range, as well as the phenomenon of habitat fragmentation. Based on species occurrence data throughout the Hyrcanian Forests (north of Iran), the MAXENT model was employed to estimate the potential distribution and suitability changes. Morphological-spatial analysis (MSPA) and CIRCUITSCAPE were used to assess habitat fragmentation and its connectivity. According to the main results obtained from future scenarios, the potential range will significantly decrease due to the lack of suitable climatic conditions. Meanwhile, B. hyrcana may not be able to shift in potentially suitable areas because of human influence and geographic barriers. Under RCP scenarios the extent of the core area would be reduced and the edge/core ratio significantly increased. Altogether, we found negative effects of the environmental change and the human population density on the continuity of habitats of B. hyrcana. The results of the presented work may improve our knowledge connected with in situ and ex situ protection strategies.

Assessment of metabolic syndrome predictors in relation to inflammation and visceral fat tissue in older adults.

The diagnosis of metabolic syndrome (MetS) focuses on the assessment of risk factors such as insulin resistance, dyslipidemia, central adiposity and elevated blood pressure. Evidence suggests that markers of systemic inflammation may also be included in the definition of MetS and play some role in its pathogenesis. The study was designed to evaluate low-grade inflammation status in older adults with MetS in relation to increased body fat tissue and an attempt was made to evaluate new predictors for MetS through the analysis of the ROC Curve. Ninety-six middle-aged (69.2 ± 4.9) individuals from University of Third Age (women n = 75 and men n = 21) were allocated to two groups: without metabolic syndrome (n = 37) and with metabolic syndrome (n = 59) according to International Diabetes Federation criteria in agreement with American Heart Association/National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute 2009. Participants' current health status was assessed using medical records from a routine follow-up visit to a primary care physician. Statistical analysis was performed using R studio software. Depending on the normal distribution, ANOVA or the Kruskal-Wallis test was used. The optimal threshold value for clinical stratification (cut-off value) was obtained by calculating the Youden index. The AUC was observed to be the highest for a new anthropometric index i.e. lipid accumulation product (0.820). Low-grade inflammation dominated in MetS group (BMI 28.0 ± 4.4 kg/m2, WHR 0.9 ± 0.1, FM 24.7 ± 7.9 kg) where significantly higher values of TNF-α (p = 0.027) and HGMB-1 protein (p = 0.011) were recorded.The optimal threshold values for immunological indices assessed as new predictors of the metabolic syndrome were: 93.4 for TNF-α, 88.2 for HGMB-1 protein and 1992.75 for ghrelin. High AUC values for these indices additionally confirmed their high diagnostic usefulness in MetS.

The future of Viscum album L. in Europe will be shaped by temperature and host availability.

Viscum album L. is a plant of great importance due to its influence on the host trees and, by extension, entire ecosystems. The species is also significant to humans-on the one hand, because of its use in medicine, and on the other, because of the growing threat it poses to the stability of conifer stands. Therefore, it is important to recognize the future range of three mistletoe subspecies (Viscum album subsp. album, V. album subsp. austriacum, and V. album subsp. abietis). Modelling of the potential range of these subspecies was performed using MAXENT software. Locations were collected from literature and databases. A total number of 3335 stands were used. Bioclimatic data for the current conditions and three future scenarios (SSP 1.26, SSP 3.70, SSP 5.85) were downloaded from the CHELSA database. The results confirmed that the temperature is the key variable on the potential range of the analysed subspecies. V. album subsp. abietis is withdrawing from its range according to all scenarios. In the case of V. album subsp. austriacum, a slight range shift is visible. Only the V. album subsp. album will expand non-directionally. The reason is most likely a very large number of host species and greater genetic variability compared to the subspecies found on conifers.

Past climatic refugia and landscape resistance explain spatial genetic structure in Oriental beech in the South Caucasus.

Predicting species-level effects of climatic changes requires unraveling the factors affecting the spatial genetic composition. However, disentangling the relative contribution of historical and contemporary drivers is challenging. By applying landscape genetics and species distribution modeling, we investigated processes that shaped the neutral genetic structure of Oriental beech (Fagus orientalis), aiming to assess the potential risks involved due to possible future distribution changes in the species. Using nuclear microsatellites, we analyze 32 natural populations from the Georgia and Azerbaijan (South Caucasus). We found that the species colonization history is the most important driver of the genetic pattern. The detected west-east gradient of genetic differentiation corresponds strictly to the Colchis and Hyrcanian glacial refugia. A significant signal of associations to environmental variables suggests that the distinct genetic composition of the Azerbaijan and Hyrcanian stands might also be structured by the local climate. Oriental beech retains an overall high diversity; however, in the context of projected habitat loss, its genetic resources might be greatly impoverished. The most affected are the Azerbaijan and Hyrcanian populations, for which the detected genetic impoverishment may enhance their vulnerability to environmental change. Given the adaptive potential of range-edge populations, the loss of these populations may ultimately affect the specie's adaptation, and thus the stability and resilience of forest ecosystems in the Caucasus ecoregion. Our study is the first approximation of the potential risks involved, inducing far-reaching conclusions about the need of maintaining the genetic resources of Oriental beech for a species' capacity to cope with environmental change.

Environmental regionalization and endemic plant distribution in the Maghreb.

Clustering methods based on environmental variables are useful in the planning of conservation strategies for species and ecosystems. However, there is a lack of work on the regionalization of the vast space of North Africa and the distribution of plant species. The current lists of endemic plants are focused mostly on an occurrence at the country level and not on regions with different conditions. The aim of this work was to lay out an environmental scheme for northwest Africa and to collect data about the occurrence of endemic plants in this area. Clustering with 12 of 33 tested environmental rasters was performed to divide the Maghreb into environmental clusters. Then, a list of 1618 endemic plant taxa (1243 species and 375 subspecies) was prepared and their distribution in estimated environmental clusters was examined. Eleven clusters with different conditions were estimated. The main drivers of regionalization were temperature amplitude, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. According to the occurrence of endemic plants, northwest Africa may be divided into three zones: Atlas, Mediterranean (two environmental clusters), and southern zone (eight environmental clusters). The presented results provide a good basis for understanding the spatial patterns of the Maghreb, including its environment and species diversity. A designed list of endemic plant species together with environmental data may facilitate the planning of future research in north Africa and arranging methods of biodiversity protection.

Genetic Diversity and Structure of Rear Edge Populations of Sorbus aucuparia (Rosaceae) in the Hyrcanian Forest.

Sorbus aucuparia (Rosaceae) is a small tree species widely distributed in Eurasia. The Hyrcanian forest is the southernmost distribution limit of this species. Severe habitat degradation and inadequate human interventions have endangered the long-term survival of this species in this region, and it is necessary to develop and apply appropriate management methods to prevent the loss of its genetic diversity. In this study, we used 10 SSR markers in order to evaluate the genetic diversity of this taxon. Leaf samples were collected from five known populations of S. aucuparia throughout its distribution area in the Hyrcanian forest. Expected heterozygosity ranged from 0.61 (ASH) to 0.73, and according to the M-ratio, all populations showed a significant reduction in effective population size, indicating a genetic bottleneck. Global FST was not statistically significant and attained the same values with and without excluding null alleles (ENA) correction (FST = 0.12). Bayesian analysis performed with STRUCTURE defined two genetic clusters among the five known populations, while the results of discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC) identified three distinct groups. The average proportion of migrants was 22. In general, the gene flow was asymmetrical, with the biggest differences between immigration and emigration in Barzekoh and Asbehriseh. The Mantel test showed that there was no significant correlation between genetic distance (FST) and geographic distance in S. aucuparia. The best pathway for theoretical gene flow is located across the coast of the Caspian Sea and significant spatial autocorrelation was observed in only one population. In order to reduce the extinction risk of very small and scattered populations of S. aucuparia in the Hyrcanian forest, it is very important to establish and/or enhance the connectivity through habitat restoration or genetic exchange.

Patterns of genetic diversity in North Africa: Moroccan-Algerian genetic split in Juniperus thurifera subsp. africana.

Juniperus thurifera is a key element of the forest communities in arid and semi-arid areas of the western Mediterranean. Previous genetic and morphological investigations suggested that Algerian populations are genetically more similar to European than to Moroccan populations and advocated their recognition at the variety rank. We aimed to investigate the spatial genetic structure in J. thurifera to verify the distinct character of the Algerian population in terms of the genetic breaks reported among several North African taxa. We also modelled species distributions since the Eemian to recognise the impact of past climatic changes on the current pattern of diversity and predict possible changes in species distribution in the future. Species-specific microsatellites were used in the analysis of 11 populations from Algeria, Morocco and Europe. We revealed the significant genetic distinctiveness of the Algerian populations from the Moroccan and European stands that may have important taxonomic and conservation implications. The diversity pattern revealed for J. thurifera reflects the east-west genetic splits reported among some North African plant and animal taxa and suggests an impact of shared historical processes. Additionally, modelling of the distribution allowed us to identify possible glacial refugia and their impact on the modern pattern of differentiation in J. thurifera. Reduction of species occurrence, especially in the European domain, is likely according to the future projections of the species distribution.

Spatial genetic structure and diversity of natural populations of Aesculus hippocastanum L. in Greece.

Horse-chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum L.) is an endemic and relict species from the Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot and a popular ornamental tree. Knowledge about the evolutionary history of this species remains scarce. Here, we ask what historical and ecological factors shaped the pattern of genetic diversity and differentiation of this species. We genotyped 717 individuals from nine natural populations using microsatellite markers. The influence of distance, topography and habitat variables on spatial genetic structure was tested within the approaches of isolation-by-distance and isolation-by-ecology. Species niche modeling was used to project the species theoretical range through time and space. The species showed high genetic diversity and moderate differentiation for which topography, progressive range contraction through the species' history and long-term persistence in stable climatic refugia are likely responsible. A strong geographic component was revealed among five genetic clusters that are connected with very limited gene flow. The environmental variables were a significant factor in the spatial genetic structure. Modeling results indicated that future reduction of the species range may affect its survival. The possible impact of climate changes and high need of in situ conservation are discussed.