After 50 years and 200 papers, what can the Midspan cohort studies tell us about our mortality?

OBJECTIVE: To distil the main findings from published papers on mortality in three cohorts involving over 27,000 adults, recruited in Scotland between 1965 and 1976 and followed up ever since. METHOD: We read and summarized 48 peer-reviewed papers about all-cause and cause-specific mortality in these cohorts, published between 1978 and 2013. RESULTS: Mortality rates were substantially higher among cigarette smokers in all social classes and both genders. Exposure to second-hand smoke was also damaging. Exposure to higher levels of black smoke pollution was associated with higher mortality. After smoking, diminished lung function was the risk factor most strongly related to higher mortality, even among never-smokers. On average, female mortality rates were much lower than male but the same risk factors were predictors of mortality. Mortality rates were highest among men whose paternal, own first and most recent jobs were manual. Specific causes of death were associated with different life stages. Upward and downward social mobility conferred intermediate mortality rates. Low childhood cognitive ability was strongly associated with low social class in adulthood and higher mortality before age 65 years. There was no evidence that daily stress contributed to higher mortality among people in lower social positions. Men in manual occupations with fathers in manual occupations, who smoked and drank >14 units of alcohol a week had cardiovascular disease mortality rates 4.5 times higher than non-manual men with non-manual fathers, who neither smoked nor drank >14 units. Men who were obese and drank >14 units of alcohol per day had a mortality rate due to liver disease 19 times that of normal or underweight non-drinkers. Among women who never smoked, mortality rates were highest in severely obese women in the lowest occupational classes. CONCLUSION: These studies highlight the cumulative effect of adverse exposures throughout life, the complex interplay between social circumstances, culture and individual capabilities, and the damaging effects of smoking, air pollution, alcohol and obesity.

A cardiovascular disease policy model: part 2-preparing for economic evaluation and to assess health inequalities.

OBJECTIVES: This is the second of the two papers introducing a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model. The first paper described the structure and statistical underpinning of the state-transition model, demonstrating how life expectancy estimates are generated for individuals defined by ASSIGN risk factors. This second paper describes how the model is prepared to undertake economic evaluation. DESIGN: To generate quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE), the Scottish Health Survey was used to estimate background morbidity (health utilities) and the impact of CVD events (utility decrements). The SF-6D algorithm generated utilities and decrements were modelled using ordinary least squares (OLS). To generate lifetime hospital costs, the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) was linked to the Scottish morbidity and death records (SMR) to cost each continuous inpatient stay (CIS). OLS and restricted cubic splines estimated annual costs before and after each of the first four events. A Kaplan-Meier sample average (KMSA) estimator was then used to weight expected health-related quality of life and costs by the probability of survival. RESULTS: The policy model predicts the change in QALE and lifetime hospital costs as a result of an intervention(s) modifying risk factors. Cost-effectiveness analysis and a full uncertainty analysis can be undertaken, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Notably, the impacts according to socioeconomic deprivation status can be made. CONCLUSIONS: The policy model can conduct cost-effectiveness analysis and decision analysis to inform approaches to primary prevention, including individually targeted and population interventions, and to assess impacts on health inequalities.

Contributions of maternal and paternal adiposity and smoking to adult offspring adiposity and cardiovascular risk: the Midspan Family Study.

OBJECTIVE: Obesity has some genetic basis but requires interaction with environmental factors for phenotypic expression. We examined contributions of gender-specific parental adiposity and smoking to adiposity and related cardiovascular risk in adult offspring. DESIGN: Cross-sectional general population survey. SETTING: Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: 1456 of the 1477 first generation families in the Midspan Family Study: 2912 parents (aged 45-64 years surveyed between 1972 and 1976) who had 1025 sons and 1283 daughters, aged 30-59 years surveyed in 1996. MAIN MEASURES: Offspring body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), cardiometabolic risk (lipids, blood pressure and glucose) and cardiovascular disease as outcome measures, and parental BMI and smoking as determinants. All analyses adjusted for age, socioeconomic status and family clustering and offspring birth weight. RESULTS: Regression coefficients for BMI associations between father-son (0.30) and mother-daughter (0.33) were greater than father-daughter (0.23) or mother-son (0.22). Regression coefficient for the non-genetic, shared-environment or assortative-mating relationship between BMIs of fathers and mothers was 0.19. Heritability estimates for BMI were greatest among women with mothers who had BMI either <25 or ≥30 kg/m(2). Compared with offspring without obese parents, offspring with two obese parents had adjusted OR of 10.25 (95% CI 6.56 to 13.93) for having WC ≥102 cm for men, ≥88 cm women, 2.46 (95% CI 1.33 to 4.57) for metabolic syndrome and 3.03 (95% CI 1.55 to 5.91) for angina and/or myocardial infarct (p<0.001). Neither parental adiposity nor smoking history determined adjusted offspring individual cardiometabolic risk factors, diabetes or stroke. Maternal, but not paternal, smoking had significant effects on WC in sons (OR=1.50; 95% CI 1.13 to 2.01) and daughters (OR=1.42; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.84) and metabolic syndrome OR=1.68; 95% CI 1.17 to 2.40) in sons. CONCLUSIONS: There are modest genetic/epigenetic influences on the environmental factors behind adverse adiposity. Maternal smoking appears a specific hazard on obesity and metabolic syndrome. A possible epigenetic mechanism linking maternal smoking to obesity and metabolic syndrome in offspring is proposed. Individuals with family histories of obesity should be targeted from an early age to prevent obesity and complications.

A cardiovascular disease policy model that predicts life expectancy taking into account socioeconomic deprivation.

OBJECTIVES: A policy model is a model that can evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions. In this study, we introduce a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model which can be used to model remaining life expectancy including a measure of socioeconomic deprivation as an independent risk factor for CVD. DESIGN: A state transition model was developed using the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) linked to Scottish morbidity and death records. Individuals start in a CVD-free state and can transit to three CVD event states plus a non-CVD death state. Individuals who have a non-fatal first event are then followed up until death. Taking a competing risk approach, the cause-specific hazards of a first event are modelled using parametric survival analysis. Survival following a first non-fatal event is also modelled parametrically. We assessed discrimination, validation and calibration of our model. RESULTS: Our model achieved a good level of discrimination in each component (c-statistics for men (women)-non-fatal coronary heart disease (CHD): 0.70 (0.74), non-fatal cerebrovascular disease (CBVD): 0.73 (0.76), fatal CVD: 0.77 (0.80), fatal non-CVD: 0.74 (0.72), survival after non-fatal CHD: 0.68 (0.67) and survival after non-fatal CBVD: 0.65 (0.66)). In general, our model predictions were comparable with observed event rates for a Scottish randomised statin trial population which has an overlapping follow-up period with SHHEC. After applying a calibration factor, our predictions of life expectancy closely match those published in recent national life tables. CONCLUSIONS: Our model can be used to estimate the impact of primary prevention interventions on life expectancy and can assess the impact of interventions on inequalities.

Living and health conditions of Palestinian refugees in an unofficial camp in the Lebanon: a cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the living conditions and self-reported health of Palestinian refugees living in an unofficial camp in Lebanon. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. SETTING: Gaza displacement centre, Beirut, Lebanon. PARTICIPANTS: 97 Households and 437 residents. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Household characteristics, including the number of rooms per household; access to outside air; the presence of mould and dampness. Resident characteristics, including age; educational attainment; and chronic conditions. RESULTS: Half of the households surveyed had only one room; 44% had three or more people per room; 11% had no external ventilation; 49% had no heating; 54% had mould and dampness. The use of wood or charcoal for heating was associated with an increase in mould and dampness (p = 0.015). 135 Members of the population (31%) were aged under 15 years; 130 (30%) had a chronic condition. Logistic regression results showed that overcrowding (odds ratio (OR) 3.26) and a member of the household living in Gaza buildings for more than 15 years (OR 0.48) were significantly associated with children under 15 years. Age over 45 years (OR 5.32), a member of the household in full-time employment (OR 0.58) and a member of the household living in Gaza buildings for more than 15 years (OR 1.71) were significantly associated with chronic disease. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the poor conditions under which Palestinian refugees in unofficial camps live, resembling the slum housing of the United Kingdom in the last century. In the absence of routine data collection, research may be the only way to obtain such data for future public and environmental health planning.

Childhood IQ of parents related to characteristics of their offspring: linking the Scottish Mental Survey 1932 to the Midspan Family Study.

The objective of the study was to investigate the relationship between childhood IQ of parents and characteristics of their adult offspring. It was a prospective family cohort study linked to a mental ability survey of the parents and set in Renfrew and Paisley in Scotland. Participants were 1921-born men and women who took part in the Scottish Mental Survey in 1932 and the Renfrew/Paisley study in the 1970s, and whose offspring took part in the Midspan Family study in 1996. There were 286 offspring from 179 families. Parental IQ was related to some, but not all characteristics of offspring. Greater parental IQ was associated with taller offspring. Parental IQ was inversely related to number of cigarettes smoked by offspring. Higher parental IQ was associated with better education, offspring social class and offspring deprivation category. There were no significant relationships between parental IQ and offspring systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose, lung function, weight, body mass index, waist hip ratio, housing, alcohol consumption, marital status, car use and exercise. Structural equation modelling showed parental IQ associated with offspring education directly and mediated via parental social class. Offspring education was associated with offspring smoking and social class. The smoking finding may have implications for targeting of health education.

Anxiety and support in breast cancer: is this different for affluent and deprived women? A questionnaire study.

A postal questionnaire was sent to affluent and deprived women with breast cancer in order to compare psychosocial aspects of care with the purpose of understanding the balance of care and explaining why deprived women have poorer outcomes. Data were collected regarding reported sources of information, SF-36 scores and ongoing causes of anxiety. The results demonstrate that affluent women were more likely to have received information from their hospital specialist (94.8 vs 76.0%) and from a breast care nurse (70.1 vs 40.0%) than deprived women. They were also more likely to have received information from magazines (50.6 vs 33.0%), newspapers (45.5 vs 22.0%) and television news (45.5 vs 26.0%). Deprived women had poorer SF-36 scores than affluent women, and reported greater anxiety about money (12.2 vs 2.8%), other health problems (22.1 vs 8.2%) and family problems (17.5 vs 6.9%). Personal and professional support is clearly important for patients with breast cancer. Health professionals need to be aware of the greater psychological distress demonstrated by deprived women, even some years after diagnosis with breast cancer, and seek to address it.

Associations of height, leg length, and lung function with cardiovascular risk factors in the Midspan Family Study.

BACKGROUND: Taller people and those with better lung function are at reduced risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Biological mechanisms for these associations are not well understood, but both measures may be markers for early life exposures. Some studies have shown that leg length, an indicator of pre-pubertal nutritional status, is the component of height most strongly associated with CHD risk. Other studies show that height-CHD associations are greatly attenuated when lung function is controlled for. This study examines (1) the association of height and the components of height (leg length and trunk length) with CHD risk factors and (2) the relative strength of the association of height and forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV(1)) with risk factors for CHD. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Cross sectional analysis of data collected at detailed cardiovascular screening examinations of 1040 men and 1298 women aged 30-59 whose parents were screened in 1972-76. Subjects come from 1477 families and are members of the Midspan Family Study. SETTING: The towns of Renfrew and Paisley in the West of Scotland. RESULTS: Taller subjects and those with better lung function had more favourable cardiovascular risk factor profiles, associations were strongest in relation to FEV(1). Higher FEV(1) was associated with lower blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose, fibrinogen, white blood cell count, and body mass index. Similar, but generally weaker, associations were seen with height. These associations were not attenuated in models controlling for parental height. Longer leg length, but not trunk length, was associated with lower systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Longer leg length was also associated with more favourable levels of cholesterol and body mass index than trunk length. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide indirect evidence that measures of lung development and pre-pubertal growth act as biomarkers for childhood exposures that may modify an individual's risk of developing CHD. Genetic influences do not seem to underlie height-CHD associations.

Microvascular correlates of blood pressure, plasma glucose, and insulin resistance in health.

OBJECTIVES: The associations between hypertension, insulin resistance and glucose intolerance are poorly understood. Altered microvascular structure and function could contribute by increasing peripheral vascular resistance and decreasing tissue delivery of glucose. We addressed this hypothesis in a sample of healthy men. METHODS: We studied 105 healthy young men aged 23-33 years. Insulin resistance was calculated using the Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA). Video capillaroscopy was used on the dorsum of the finger to measure skin capillary density, and in nailfold capillaries to measure capillary blood velocity. Skin vasodilatation was measured with laser Doppler fluximetry on the forearm following heating and iontophoresis of acetylcholine. RESULTS: Higher systolic blood pressure was associated with insulin resistance (r=0.31, P<0.005), lower dermal capillary density (r= -0.25, P<0.05), and impaired maximum dermal blood flow after heating (r= -0.26, P<0.01), but not with capillary blood velocity (r=0.07) or dilator responses to acetylcholine (r=0.09). Insulin resistance did not correlate with indices of microvascular structure or function (all r<+/-0.15). However, higher fasting plasma glucose was associated with lower capillary density (r= -0.27, P<0.01), and increased capillary blood velocity (r=0.30, P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The association between hypertension and insulin resistance is unlikely to be explained by altered microvascular structure and function. However, changes in the microvasculature are found in subjects with early and subtle elevations in blood pressure or fasting plasma glucose in advance of their crossing conventional thresholds for the diagnosis of hypertension or diabetes mellitus.