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BACKGROUND: Extreme ambient heat is unambiguously associated with higher risk of illness and death. The Optum Labs Data Warehouse (OLDW), a database of medical claims from US-based patients with commercial or Medicare Advantage health insurance, has been used to quantify heat-related health impacts. Whether results for the insured sub-population are generalizable to the broader population has to our knowledge not been documented. We sought to address this question, for the US population in California from 2012 to 2019. METHODS: We examined changes in daily rates of emergency department (ED) encounters and in-patient hospitalization encounters for all-causes, heat-related outcomes, renal disease, mental/behavioral disorders, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease. OLDW was the source for health data for insured individuals in California, and health data for the broader population were gathered from the California Department of Health Care Access and Information (HCAI). We defined extreme heat exposure as any day in a group of 2 or more days with maximum temperatures exceeding the county-specific 97.5 th percentile and used a space-time-stratified case-crossover design to assess and compare the impacts of heat on health. RESULTS: Average incidence rates of medical encounters differed by dataset. However, rate ratios for ED encounters were similar across datasets for all causes (ratio of incidence rate ratios (rIRR) = 0.989; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.973, 1.011), heat-related causes (rIRR = 1.080; 95% CI = 0.999, 1.168), renal disease (rIRR = 0.963; 95% CI = 0.718, 1.292), and mental health disorders (rIRR = 1.098; 95% CI = 1.004, 1.201). Rate ratios for inpatient encounters were also similar. CONCLUSIONS: This work presents evidence that OLDW can continue to be a resource for estimating the health impacts of extreme heat.
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BACKGROUND: A large body of evidence connects access to greenspace with substantial benefits to physical and mental health. In urban settings where access to greenspace can be limited, park access and use have been associated with higher levels of physical activity, improved physical health, and lower levels of markers of mental distress. Despite the potential health benefits of urban parks, little is known about how park usage varies across locations (between or within cities) or over time. METHODS: We estimated park usage among urban residents (identified as residents of urban census tracts) in 498 US cities from 2019 to 2021 from aggregated and anonymised opted-in smartphone location history data. We used descriptive statistics to quantify differences in park usage over time, between cities, and across census tracts within cities, and used generalised linear models to estimate the associations between park usage and census tract level descriptors. FINDINGS: In spring (March 1 to May 31) 2019, 18·9% of urban residents visited a park at least once per week, with average use higher in northwest and southwest USA, and lowest in the southeast. Park usage varied substantially both within and between cities; was unequally distributed across census tract-level markers of race, ethnicity, income, and social vulnerability; and was only moderately correlated with established markers of census tract greenspace. In spring 2019, a doubling of walking time to parks was associated with a 10·1% (95% CI 5·6-14·3) lower average weekly park usage, adjusting for city and social vulnerability index. The median decline in park usage from spring 2019 to spring 2020 was 38·0% (IQR 28·4-46·5), coincident with the onset of physical distancing policies across much of the country. We estimated that the COVID-19-related decline in park usage was more pronounced for those living further from a park and those living in areas of higher social vulnerability. INTERPRETATION: These estimates provide novel insights into the patterns and correlates of park use and could enable new studies of the health benefits of urban greenspace. In addition, the availability of an empirical park usage metric that varies over time could be a useful tool for assessing the effectiveness of policies intended to increase such activities. FUNDING: Google.
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Ciudades , Parques Recreativos , Teléfono Inteligente , Parques Recreativos/estadística & datos numéricos , Estados Unidos , Humanos , Teléfono Inteligente/estadística & datos numéricos , COVID-19 , Población Urbana/estadística & datos numéricos , RecreaciónRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Few epidemiologic studies have examined the association of ambient heat with spontaneous abortion, a common and devastating pregnancy outcome. METHODS: We conducted a case-crossover study nested within Pregnancy Study Online, a preconception cohort study (2013-2022). We included all participants reporting spontaneous abortion (n=1,524). We defined the case window as the 7 days preceding the event and used time-stratified referent selection to select control windows matched on calendar month and day of week. Within each 7-day case and control window, we measured mean, maximum, and minimum of daily maximum outdoor air temperatures. We fit splines to examine non-linear relationships across the entire year and conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% CI of spontaneous abortion with increases in temperature during the warm season (May-September) and decreases during the cool season (November-March). RESULTS: We found evidence of a U-shaped association between outdoor air temperature and spontaneous abortion risk based on year-round data. When restricting to warm season events (n=657), the OR for a 10-percentile increase in the mean of lag 0-6 daily maximum temperatures was 1.1 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.2) and, for the maximum, 1.1 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.2). The OR associated with any extreme heat days (>95th county-specific percentile) in the preceding week was 1.2 (95% CI: 0.95, 1.5). Among cool season events (n=615), there was no appreciable association between lower temperatures and spontaneous abortion risk. CONCLUSION: Our study provides evidence of an association between high outdoor temperatures and incidence of spontaneous abortion.
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Background: Diet is known to impact cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, but evidence for the essential minerals of magnesium (Mg), calcium (Ca), and potassium (K) is inconsistent. Methods: We conducted a case-cohort study within a non-smoking subgroup of the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort, a prospective study of 50-64-year-olds recruited between 1993-1997. We identified incident heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke cases through 2015 with an 1135-member subcohort. We measured the dietary intake of minerals, also known as elements, and calculated a combined dietary intake (CDI) score based on joint Ca, Mg and K intakes (mg/d) from Food Frequency Questionnaires. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) with Cox proportional hazard models. Results: Most HRs examining associations between CDI score and CVD were null. However, the third quartile of CDI was associated with a lower risk for heart failure (HR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.67, 1.17), AMI (HR: 0.79; 95% CI: 0.60, 1.04), and stroke (HR: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.44, 0.88). Conclusions: We did not find consistent evidence to suggest that higher levels of essential minerals are associated with incident HF, AMI, and stroke, though results suggest a potential U-shaped relationship between select minerals and CVD outcomes.
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Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Dieta , Minerales , Humanos , Dinamarca/epidemiología , Persona de Mediana Edad , Masculino , Femenino , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , Minerales/administración & dosificación , Dieta/estadística & datos numéricos , Incidencia , Estudios Prospectivos , Magnesio/administración & dosificación , Estudios de Cohortes , Factores de Riesgo , Infarto del Miocardio/epidemiología , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Modelos de Riesgos ProporcionalesRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The evidence for acute effects of air pollution on mortality in India is scarce, despite the extreme concentrations of air pollution observed. This is the first multi-city study in India that examines the association between short-term exposure to PM2·5 and daily mortality using causal methods that highlight the importance of locally generated air pollution. METHODS: We applied a time-series analysis to ten cities in India between 2008 and 2019. We assessed city-wide daily PM2·5 concentrations using a novel hybrid nationwide spatiotemporal model and estimated city-specific effects of PM2·5 using a generalised additive Poisson regression model. City-specific results were then meta-analysed. We applied an instrumental variable causal approach (including planetary boundary layer height, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure) to evaluate the causal effect of locally generated air pollution on mortality. We obtained an integrated exposure-response curve through a multivariate meta-regression of the city-specific exposure-response curve and calculated the fraction of deaths attributable to air pollution concentrations exceeding the current WHO 24 h ambient PM2·5 guideline of 15 µg/m3. To explore the shape of the exposure-response curve at lower exposures, we further limited the analyses to days with concentrations lower than the current Indian standard (60 µg/m3). FINDINGS: We observed that a 10 µg/m3 increase in 2-day moving average of PM2·5 was associated with 1·4% (95% CI 0·7-2·2) higher daily mortality. In our causal instrumental variable analyses representing the effect of locally generated air pollution, we observed a stronger association with daily mortality (3·6% [2·1-5·0]) than our overall estimate. Our integrated exposure-response curve suggested steeper slopes at lower levels of exposure and an attenuation of the slope at high exposure levels. We observed two times higher risk of death per 10 µg/m3 increase when restricting our analyses to observations below the Indian air quality standard (2·7% [1·7-3·6]). Using the integrated exposure-response curve, we observed that 7·2% (4·2%-10·1%) of all daily deaths were attributed to PM2·5 concentrations higher than the WHO guidelines. INTERPRETATION: Short-term PM2·5 exposure was associated with a high risk of death in India, even at concentrations well below the current Indian PM2·5 standard. These associations were stronger for locally generated air pollutants quantified through causal modelling methods than conventional time-series analysis, further supporting a plausible causal link. FUNDING: Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development.
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Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , Ciudades , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales , Mortalidad , Material Particulado , India/epidemiología , Contaminación del Aire/efectos adversos , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Humanos , Material Particulado/efectos adversos , Material Particulado/análisis , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/efectos adversos , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/efectos adversos , Modelos TeóricosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Combined sewer overflow (CSO) events release untreated wastewater into surface waterbodies during heavy precipitation and snowmelt. Combined sewer systems serve â¼40 million people in the United States, primarily in urban and suburban municipalities in the Midwest and Northeast. Predicted increases in heavy precipitation events driven by climate change underscore the importance of quantifying potential health risks associated with CSO events. OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to a) estimate the association between CSO events (2014-2019) and emergency department (ED) visits for acute gastrointestinal illness (AGI) among Massachusetts municipalities that border a CSO-impacted river, and b) determine whether associations differ by municipal drinking water source. METHODS: A case time-series design was used to estimate the association between daily cumulative upstream CSO discharge and ED visits for AGI over lag periods of 4, 7, and 14 days, adjusting for temporal trends, temperature, and precipitation. Associations between CSO events and AGI were also compared by municipal drinking water source (CSO-impacted river vs. other sources). RESULTS: Extreme upstream CSO discharge events (>95th percentile by cumulative volume) were associated with a cumulative risk ratio (CRR) of AGI of 1.22 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05, 1.42] over the next 4 days for all municipalities, and the association was robust after adjusting for precipitation [1.17 (95% CI: 0.98, 1.39)], although the CI includes the null. In municipalities with CSO-impacted drinking water sources, the adjusted association was somewhat less pronounced following 95th percentile CSO events [CRR= 1.05 (95% CI: 0.82, 1.33)]. The adjusted CRR of AGI was 1.62 in all municipalities following 99th percentile CSO events (95% CI: 1.04, 2.51) and not statistically different when stratified by drinking water source. DISCUSSION: In municipalities bordering a CSO-impacted river in Massachusetts, extreme CSO events are associated with higher risk of AGI within 4 days. The largest CSO events are associated with increased risk of AGI regardless of drinking water source. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14213.
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Ciudades , Agua Potable , Enfermedades Gastrointestinales , Ríos , Massachusetts/epidemiología , Humanos , Enfermedades Gastrointestinales/epidemiología , Aguas del Alcantarillado , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Tropical cyclones are associated with acute increases in mortality and morbidity, but few studies have examined their longer-term health consequences. We assessed whether tropical cyclones are associated with a higher frequency of symptom exacerbation among children with asthma in the following 12 months in eastern United States counties, 2000-2018. METHODS: We defined exposure to tropical cyclones as a maximum sustained windspeed >21 meters/second at the county center and used coarsened exact matching to match each exposed county to one or more unexposed counties. We used longitudinal, de-identified administrative claims data to estimate the county-level, monthly risk of experiencing at least one asthma exacerbation requiring medical attention among commercially insured children aged 5-17 with prior diagnosis of asthma. We used a difference-in-differences approach implemented via a Poisson fixed effects model to compare the risk of asthma exacerbation in the 12 months before versus after each storm in exposed versus unexposed counties. RESULTS: Across 43 tropical cyclones impacting the eastern United States, we did not observe evidence of an increase in the risk of symptom exacerbation in the 12 months following the storm (random-effects meta-analytic summary estimate: risk ratio = 1.03 [95% confidence interval = 0.96, 1.10], I2 = 17%). However, certain storms, such as Hurricane Sandy, were associated with a higher risk of symptom exacerbation. CONCLUSIONS: These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that some tropical cyclones are detrimental to children's respiratory health. However, tropical cyclones were not associated in aggregate with long-term exacerbation of clinically apparent asthma symptoms among a population of children with commercial health insurance.
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Asma , Tormentas Ciclónicas , Niño , Humanos , Brote de los Síntomas , Asma/epidemiología , Salud Infantil , Progresión de la EnfermedadRESUMEN
Heat waves pose a substantial and increasing risk to public health. Heat health early warning systems (HHEWSs) and response plans are increasingly being adopted to alert people to the health risks posed by days of extreme heat and recommend protective behaviors. However, evidence regarding the effectiveness of HHEWSs remains limited. We examined the impact of heat wave naming on heat-related beliefs and behaviors to ascertain the potential effectiveness of heat wave naming as a heat health risk communication and management tool. Specifically, we surveyed members of the public exposed to the proMETEO Sevilla HHEWS messaging campaign which in the summer of 2022 applied a name to heat waves considered to pose the greatest risk to public health. During the heat season we evaluated, the proMETEO Sevilla HHEWS campaign applied a name to one heat wave, heat wave "Zoe". Our analysis of the post-survey of 2022 adults indicated that the 6% of participants who recalled the name Zoe unaided reported greater engagement in heat wave safety behaviors and more positive beliefs about naming heat waves and their local governments' heat wave response. These results provide initial evidence for potential utility in naming heat waves as part of HHEWSs and HAPs.
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Calor Extremo , Calor , Adulto , Humanos , España , Estaciones del Año , Programas de GobiernoRESUMEN
Importance: Many veterans who served in Afghanistan and Iraq during Operations Enduring Freedom (OEF) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) were deployed to military bases with open burn pits and exposed to their emissions, with limited understanding of the long-term health consequences. Objective: To determine the association between deployment to military bases where open burn pits were used for waste disposal and the subsequent risk of developing respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective observational cohort study used Veterans Health Administration medical records and declassified deployment records from the Department of Defense to assess Army and Air Force veterans who were deployed between 2001 and 2011 and subsequently received health care from the Veterans Health Administration, with follow-up through December 2020. Data were analyzed from January 2023 through February 2024. Exposure: Duration of deployment to military bases with open burn pits. Main Outcomes and Measures: Diagnosis of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, interstitial lung disease, hypertension, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke. Results: The study population included 459â¯381 OEF and OIF veterans (mean [SD] age, 31.6 [8.7] years; 399â¯754 [87.0%] male). Median (IQR) follow-up from end of deployment was 10.9 (9.4-12.7) years. For every 100 days of deployment to bases with burn pits, veterans experienced increased adjusted odds for asthma (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.01; 95% CI, 1.01-1.02), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aOR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.02-1.07), hypertension (aOR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.02-1.03), and ischemic stroke (aOR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.97-1.14). Odds of interstitial lung disease, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, or hemorrhagic stroke were not increased. Results based on tertiles of duration of burn pit exposures were consistent with those from the continuous exposure measures. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, prolonged deployment to military bases with open burn pits was associated with increased risk of developing asthma, COPD, and hypertension. The results also point to a possible increased risk in ischemic stroke. The novel ability to use integrated data on deployment and health outcomes provides a model for additional studies of the health impact of environmental exposures during military service.
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Campaña Afgana 2001- , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Guerra de Irak 2003-2011 , Humanos , Masculino , Estudios Retrospectivos , Femenino , Adulto , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Despliegue Militar/estadística & datos numéricos , Veteranos/estadística & datos numéricos , Personal Militar/estadística & datos numéricos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Enfermedades Respiratorias/epidemiología , Quema de Residuos al Aire LibreRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Over 120 million people in the USA live in areas with unsafe ozone (O3) levels. Studies among adults have linked exposure to worse lung function and higher risk of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, few studies have examined the effects of O3 in children, and existing studies are limited in terms of their geographic scope or outcomes considered. METHODS: We leveraged a dataset of encounters at 42 US children's hospitals from 2004-2015. We used a one-stage case-crossover design to quantify the association between daily maximum 8-hour O3 in the county in which the hospital is located and risk of emergency department (ED) visits for any cause and for respiratory disorders, asthma, respiratory infections, allergies and ear disorders. RESULTS: Approximately 28 million visits were available during this period. Per 10 ppb increase, warm-season (May through September) O3 levels over the past three days were associated with higher risk of ED visits for all causes (risk ratio [RR]: 0.3% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.2%, 0.4%]), allergies (4.1% [2.5%, 5.7%]), ear disorders (0.8% [0.3%, 1.3%]) and asthma (1.3% [0.8%, 1.9%]). When restricting to levels below the current regulatory standard (70 ppb), O3 was still associated with risk of ED visits for all-cause, allergies, ear disorders and asthma. Stratified analyses suggest that the risk of O3-related all-cause ED visits may be higher in older children. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this national study extend prior research on the impacts of daily O3 on children's health and reinforce the presence of important adverse health impacts even at levels below the current regulatory standard in the USA.
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Asma , Ozono , Niño , Humanos , Asma/epidemiología , Salud Infantil , Ozono/efectos adversos , Ozono/análisis , Estaciones del Año , Estudios CruzadosRESUMEN
High-resolution assessment of historical levels is essential for assessing the health effects of ambient air pollution in the large Indian population. The diversity of geography, weather patterns, and progressive urbanization, combined with a sparse ground monitoring network makes it challenging to accurately capture the spatiotemporal patterns of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution in India. We developed a model for daily average ambient PM2.5 between 2008 and 2020 based on monitoring data, meteorology, land use, satellite observations, and emissions inventories. Daily average predictions at each 1â km × 1â km grid from each learner were ensembled using a Gaussian process regression with anisotropic smoothing over spatial coordinates, and regression calibration was used to account for exposure error. Cross-validating by leaving monitors out, the ensemble model had an R2 of 0.86 at the daily level in the validation data and outperformed each component learner (by 5-18%). Annual average levels in different zones ranged between 39.7â µg/m3 (interquartile range: 29.8-46.8) in 2008 and 30.4â µg/m3 (interquartile range: 22.7-37.2) in 2020, with a cross-validated (CV)-R2 of 0.94 at the annual level. Overall mean absolute daily errors (MAE) across the 13 years were between 14.4 and 25.4â µg/m3. We obtained high spatial accuracy with spatial R2 greater than 90% and spatial MAE ranging between 7.3-16.5â µg/m3 with relatively better performance in urban areas at low and moderate elevation. We have developed an important validated resource for studying PM2.5 at a very fine spatiotemporal resolution, which allows us to study the health effects of PM2.5 across India and to identify areas with exceedingly high levels.
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Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events. Yet a systematic analysis of post-disaster healthcare utilization and outcomes for severe weather and climate disasters, as tracked by the US government, is lacking. Following exposure to 42 US billion-dollar weather disasters (severe storm, flood, flood/severe storm, tropical cyclone and winter storm) between 2011 and 2016, we used a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to quantify changes in the rates of emergency department (ED) visits, nonelective hospitalizations and mortality between fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries in affected compared to matched control counties in post-disaster weeks 1, 1-2 and 3-6. Overall, disasters were associated with higher rates of ED utilization in affected counties in post-disaster week 1 (DID of 1.22% (95% CI, 0.20% to 2.25%; P < 0.020)) through week 2. Nonelective hospitalizations were unchanged. Mortality was higher in affected counties in week 1 (DID of 1.40% (95% CI, 0.08% to 2.74%; P = 0.037)) and persisted for 6 weeks. Counties with the greatest loss and damage experienced greater increases in ED and mortality rates compared to all affected counties. Thus, billion-dollar weather disasters are associated with excess ED visits and mortality in Medicare beneficiaries. Tracking these outcomes is important for adaptation that protects patients and communities, health system resilience and policy.
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Desastres , Clima Extremo , Anciano , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Humanos , Medicare , Atención a la Salud , Aceptación de la Atención de SaludRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To estimate the excess relative and absolute risks of hospital admissions and emergency department visits for natural causes, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease associated with daily exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at concentrations below the new World Health Organization air quality guideline limit among adults with health insurance in the contiguous US. DESIGN: Case time series study. SETTING: US national administrative healthcare claims database. PARTICIPANTS: 50.1 million commercial and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries aged ≥18 years between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2016. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Daily counts of hospital admissions and emergency department visits for natural causes, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease based on the primary diagnosis code. RESULTS: During the study period, 10.3 million hospital admissions and 24.1 million emergency department visits occurred for natural causes among 50.1 million adult enrollees across 2939 US counties. The daily PM2.5 levels were below the new WHO guideline limit of 15 µg/m3 for 92.6% of county days (7 360 725 out of 7 949 713). On days when daily PM2.5 levels were below the new WHO air quality guideline limit of 15 µg/m3, an increase of 10 µg/m3 in PM2.5 during the current and previous day was associated with higher risk of hospital admissions for natural causes, with an excess relative risk of 0.91% (95% confidence interval 0.55% to 1.26%), or 1.87 (95% confidence interval 1.14 to 2.59) excess hospital admissions per million enrollees per day. The increased risk of hospital admissions for natural causes was observed exclusively among adults aged ≥65 years and was not evident in younger adults. PM2.5 levels were also statistically significantly associated with relative risk of hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. For emergency department visits, a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 during the current and previous day was associated with respiratory disease, with an excess relative risk of 1.34% (0.73% to 1.94%), or 0.93 (0.52 to 1.35) excess emergency department visits per million enrollees per day. This association was not found for natural causes or cardiovascular disease. The higher risk of emergency department visits for respiratory disease was strongest among middle aged and young adults. CONCLUSIONS: Among US adults with health insurance, exposure to ambient PM2.5 at concentrations below the new WHO air quality guideline limit is statistically significantly associated with higher rates of hospital admissions for natural causes, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease, and with emergency department visits for respiratory diseases. These findings constitute an important contribution to the debate about the revision of air quality limits, guidelines, and standards.
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Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Medicare Part C , Trastornos Respiratorios , Enfermedades Respiratorias , Persona de Mediana Edad , Adulto Joven , Humanos , Anciano , Estados Unidos/epidemiología , Adolescente , Adulto , Material Particulado/efectos adversos , Material Particulado/análisis , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/efectos adversos , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/inducido químicamente , Factores de Tiempo , Contaminación del Aire/efectos adversos , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Enfermedades Respiratorias/etiología , Enfermedades Respiratorias/inducido químicamente , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/efectos adversos , MorbilidadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Heatwaves are expected to increase with climate change, posing a significant threat to population health. In India, with the world's largest population, heatwaves occur annually but have not been comprehensively studied. Accordingly, we evaluated the association between heatwaves and all-cause mortality and quantifying the attributable mortality fraction in India. METHODS: We obtained all-cause mortality counts for ten cities in India (2008-2019) and estimated daily mean temperatures from satellite data. Our main extreme heatwave was defined as two-consecutive days with an intensity above the 97th annual percentile. We estimated city-specific heatwave associations through generalised additive Poisson regression models, and meta-analysed the associations. We reported effects as the percentage change in daily mortality, with 95% confidence intervals (CI), comparing heatwave vs non-heatwave days. We further evaluated heatwaves using different percentiles (95th, 97th, 99th) for one, two, three and five-consecutive days. We also evaluated the influence of heatwave duration, intensity and timing in the summer season on heatwave mortality, and estimated the number of heatwave-related deaths. FINDINGS: Among â¼ 3.6 million deaths, we observed that temperatures above 97th percentile for 2-consecutive days was associated with a 14.7 % (95 %CI, 10.3; 19.3) increase in daily mortality. Alternative heatwave definitions with higher percentiles and longer duration resulted in stronger relative risks. Furthermore, we observed stronger associations between heatwaves and mortality with higher heatwave intensity. We estimated that around 1116 deaths annually (95 %CI, 861; 1361) were attributed to heatwaves. Shorter and less intense definitions of heatwaves resulted in a higher estimated burden of heatwave-related deaths. CONCLUSIONS: We found strong evidence of heatwave impacts on daily mortality. Longer and more intense heatwaves were linked to an increased mortality risk, however, resulted in a lower burden of heatwave-related deaths. Both definitions and the burden associated with each heatwave definition should be incorporated into planning and decision-making processes for policymakers.
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Calor , Mortalidad , Ciudades , Riesgo , Temperatura , India/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Many approaches to quantifying air pollution exposures have been developed. However, the impact of choice of approach on air pollution estimates and health-effects associations remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: Our objective is to compare particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5µm (PM2.5) concentrations and resulting health effects associations using multiple estimation approaches previously used in epidemiologic analyses. METHODS: We assigned annual PM2.5 exposure estimates from 1999 to 2004 derived from 11 different approaches to Women's Health Initiative Memory Study (WHIMS) participant addresses within the contiguous US. Approaches included geostatistical interpolation approaches, land-use regression or spatiotemporal models, satellite-derived approaches, air dispersion and chemical transport models, and hybrid models. We used descriptive statistics and plots to assess relative and absolute agreement among exposure estimates and examined the impact of approach on associations between PM2.5 and death due to natural causes, cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and incident CVD events, adjusting for individual-level covariates and climate-based region. RESULTS: With a few exceptions, relative agreement of approach-specific PM2.5 exposure estimates was high for PM2.5 concentrations across the contiguous US. Agreement among approach-specific exposure estimates was stronger near PM2.5 monitors, in certain regions of the country, and in 2004 vs. 1999. Collectively, our results suggest but do not quantify lower agreement at local spatial scales for PM2.5. There was no evidence of large differences in health effects associations with PM2.5 among estimation approaches in analyses adjusted for climate region. CONCLUSIONS: Different estimation approaches produced similar spatial patterns of PM2.5 concentrations across the contiguous US and in areas with dense monitoring data, and PM2.5-health effects associations were similar among estimation approaches. PM2.5 estimates and PM2.5-health effects associations may differ more in samples drawn from smaller areas or areas without substantial monitoring data, or in analyses with finer adjustment for participant location. Our results can inform decisions about PM2.5 estimation approach in epidemiologic studies, as investigators balance concerns about bias, efficiency, and resource allocation. Future work is needed to understand whether these conclusions also apply in the context of other air pollutants of interest. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12995.
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Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Contaminación del Aire , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Humanos , Femenino , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Material Particulado/análisis , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/etiología , Salud de la Mujer , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisisRESUMEN
Worldwide, millions of people are co-exposed to arsenic and cadmium. Environmental exposure to both metals is linked with a higher risk of atherosclerosis. While studies have characterized the pro-atherosclerotic effects of arsenic and cadmium as single agents, little is known about the potential effects of metal mixtures, particularly at low doses. Here, we used a combination of in vitro and in vivo models to assess the effects of low-dose metals individually and as mixtures on early events and plaque development associated with atherosclerosis. In vitro, we investigated early pro-atherogenic changes in macrophages and endothelial cells with metal treatments. The combined cytotoxic effects of both metals at low concentrations were dose interactive, specifically, synergistic in macrophages, but antagonistic in endothelial cells. Despite this differential behavior across cell types, the mixtures did not initiate early pro-atherogenic events: neither reactive oxygen species generation in macrophages nor adhesion molecule expression on endothelial cells. In vivo, we utilized the well-characterized hyperlipidemic apolipoprotein E knock-out (ApoE-/-) mouse model. Previously, we have shown that low concentrations of arsenic (down to 10 ppb) enhance atherosclerosis in ApoE-/- mice. This model has also been used with cadmium to demonstrate pro-atherogenic effects, although at concentrations above human-relevant exposures. In both sexes, there are some small increases in atherosclerotic lesion size, but very few changes in plaque constituents in the ApoE-/- mouse model. Together, these results suggests that low-dose metal mixtures are not significantly more pro-atherogenic than either metal alone.
Asunto(s)
Arsénico , Aterosclerosis , Placa Aterosclerótica , Masculino , Femenino , Humanos , Animales , Ratones , Arsénico/toxicidad , Cadmio/toxicidad , Células Endoteliales/metabolismo , Aterosclerosis/metabolismo , Placa Aterosclerótica/inducido químicamente , Metales , Apolipoproteínas E/genéticaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Limited evidence suggests that antimony induces vascular inflammation and oxidative stress and may play a role in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, few studies have examined whether environmental antimony from sources other than tobacco smoking is related with CVD risk. The general population may be exposed through air, drinking water, and food that contains antimony from natural and anthropogenic sources, such as mining, coal combustion, and manufacturing. OBJECTIVES: To examine the association of urine antimony with incident acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure, and stroke among people who never smoked tobacco. METHODS: Between 1993 and 1997, the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health (DCH) cohort enrolled participants (ages 50-64 years), including n = 19,394 participants who reported never smoking at baseline. Among these never smokers, we identified incident cases of AMI (N = 809), heart failure (N = 958), and stroke (N = 534) using the Danish National Patient Registry. We also randomly selected a subcohort of 600 men and 600 women. We quantified urine antimony concentrations in samples provided at enrollment. We used modified Cox proportional hazards models to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for each incident CVD outcome in relation to urine antimony, statistically adjusted for creatinine. We used a separate prospective cohort, the San Luis Valley Diabetes Study (SLVDS), to replicate these results. RESULTS: In the DCH cohort, urine antimony concentrations were positively associated with rates of AMI and heart failure (HR = 1.52; 95%CI = 1.12, 2.08 and HR = 1.58; 95% CI = 1.15, 2.18, respectively, comparing participants in the highest (>0.09 µg/L) with the lowest quartile (<0.02 µg/L) of antimony). In the SLVDS cohort, urinary antimony was positively associated with AMI, but not heart failure. DISCUSSION: Among this sample of Danish people who never smoked, we found that low levels of urine antimony are associated with incident CVD. These results were partially confirmed in a smaller US cohort.