Real-time web-based assessment of total population risk of future emergency department utilization: statewide prospective active case finding study.

BACKGROUND: An easily accessible real-time Web-based utility to assess patient risks of future emergency department (ED) visits can help the health care provider guide the allocation of resources to better manage higher-risk patient populations and thereby reduce unnecessary use of EDs. OBJECTIVE: Our main objective was to develop a Health Information Exchange-based, next 6-month ED risk surveillance system in the state of Maine. METHODS: Data on electronic medical record (EMR) encounters integrated by HealthInfoNet (HIN), Maine's Health Information Exchange, were used to develop the Web-based surveillance system for a population ED future 6-month risk prediction. To model, a retrospective cohort of 829,641 patients with comprehensive clinical histories from January 1 to December 31, 2012 was used for training and then tested with a prospective cohort of 875,979 patients from July 1, 2012, to June 30, 2013. RESULTS: The multivariate statistical analysis identified 101 variables predictive of future defined 6-month risk of ED visit: 4 age groups, history of 8 different encounter types, history of 17 primary and 8 secondary diagnoses, 8 specific chronic diseases, 28 laboratory test results, history of 3 radiographic tests, and history of 25 outpatient prescription medications. The c-statistics for the retrospective and prospective cohorts were 0.739 and 0.732 respectively. Integration of our method into the HIN secure statewide data system in real time prospectively validated its performance. Cluster analysis in both the retrospective and prospective analyses revealed discrete subpopulations of high-risk patients, grouped around multiple "anchoring" demographics and chronic conditions. With the Web-based population risk-monitoring enterprise dashboards, the effectiveness of the active case finding algorithm has been validated by clinicians and caregivers in Maine. CONCLUSIONS: The active case finding model and associated real-time Web-based app were designed to track the evolving nature of total population risk, in a longitudinal manner, for ED visits across all payers, all diseases, and all age groups. Therefore, providers can implement targeted care management strategies to the patient subgroups with similar patterns of clinical histories, driving the delivery of more efficient and effective health care interventions. To the best of our knowledge, this prospectively validated EMR-based, Web-based tool is the first one to allow real-time total population risk assessment for statewide ED visits.

A data-driven algorithm integrating clinical and laboratory features for the diagnosis and prognosis of necrotizing enterocolitis.

BACKGROUND: Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a major source of neonatal morbidity and mortality. Since there is no specific diagnostic test or risk of progression model available for NEC, the diagnosis and outcome prediction of NEC is made on clinical grounds. The objective in this study was to develop and validate new NEC scoring systems for automated staging and prognostic forecasting. STUDY DESIGN: A six-center consortium of university based pediatric teaching hospitals prospectively collected data on infants under suspicion of having NEC over a 7-year period. A database comprised of 520 infants was utilized to develop the NEC diagnostic and prognostic models by dividing the entire dataset into training and testing cohorts of demographically matched subjects. Developed on the training cohort and validated on the blind testing cohort, our multivariate analyses led to NEC scoring metrics integrating clinical data. RESULTS: Machine learning using clinical and laboratory results at the time of clinical presentation led to two nec models: (1) an automated diagnostic classification scheme; (2) a dynamic prognostic method for risk-stratifying patients into low, intermediate and high NEC scores to determine the risk for disease progression. We submit that dynamic risk stratification of infants with NEC will assist clinicians in determining the need for additional diagnostic testing and guide potential therapies in a dynamic manner. ALGORITHM AVAILABILITY: http://translationalmedicine.stanford.edu/cgi-bin/NEC/index.pl and smartphone application upon request.

Investigation of maternal environmental exposures in association with self-reported preterm birth.

Identification of maternal environmental factors influencing preterm birth risks is important to understand the reasons for the increase in prematurity since 1990. Here, we utilized a health survey, the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) to search for personal environmental factors associated with preterm birth. 201 urine and blood markers of environmental factors, such as allergens, pollutants, and nutrients were assayed in mothers (range of N: 49-724) who answered questions about any children born preterm (delivery <37 weeks). We screened each of the 201 factors for association with any child born preterm adjusting by age, race/ethnicity, education, and household income. We attempted to verify the top finding, urinary bisphenol A, in an independent study of pregnant women attending Lucile Packard Children's Hospital. We conclude that the association between maternal urinary levels of bisphenol A and preterm birth should be evaluated in a larger epidemiological investigation.

Integrating multiple 'omics' analyses identifies serological protein biomarkers for preeclampsia.

BACKGROUND: Preeclampsia (PE) is a pregnancy-related vascular disorder which is the leading cause of maternal morbidity and mortality. We sought to identify novel serological protein markers to diagnose PE with a multi-'omics' based discovery approach. METHODS: Seven previous placental expression studies were combined for a multiplex analysis, and in parallel, two-dimensional gel electrophoresis was performed to compare serum proteomes in PE and control subjects. The combined biomarker candidates were validated with available ELISA assays using gestational age-matched PE (n=32) and control (n=32) samples. With the validated biomarkers, a genetic algorithm was then used to construct and optimize biomarker panels in PE assessment. RESULTS: In addition to the previously identified biomarkers, the angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors (soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase (sFlt-1) and placental growth factor (PIGF)), we found 3 up-regulated and 6 down-regulated biomakers in PE sera. Two optimal biomarker panels were developed for early and late onset PE assessment, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Both early and late onset PE diagnostic panels, constructed with our PE biomarkers, were superior over sFlt-1/PIGF ratio in PE discrimination. The functional significance of these PE biomarkers and their associated pathways were analyzed which may provide new insights into the pathogenesis of PE.

Peptidomic Identification of Serum Peptides Diagnosing Preeclampsia.

We sought to identify serological markers capable of diagnosing preeclampsia (PE). We performed serum peptide analysis (liquid chromatography mass spectrometry) of 62 unique samples from 31 PE patients and 31 healthy pregnant controls, with two-thirds used as a training set and the other third as a testing set. Differential serum peptide profiling identified 52 significant serum peptides, and a 19-peptide panel collectively discriminating PE in training sets (n = 21 PE, n = 21 control; specificity = 85.7% and sensitivity = 100%) and testing sets (n = 10 PE, n = 10 control; specificity = 80% and sensitivity = 100%). The panel peptides were derived from 6 different protein precursors: 13 from fibrinogen alpha (FGA), 1 from alpha-1-antitrypsin (A1AT), 1 from apolipoprotein L1 (APO-L1), 1 from inter-alpha-trypsin inhibitor heavy chain H4 (ITIH4), 2 from kininogen-1 (KNG1), and 1 from thymosin beta-4 (TMSB4). We concluded that serum peptides can accurately discriminate active PE. Measurement of a 19-peptide panel could be performed quickly and in a quantitative mass spectrometric platform available in clinical laboratories. This serum peptide panel quantification could provide clinical utility in predicting PE or differential diagnosis of PE from confounding chronic hypertension.

Cloud-based solution to identify statistically significant MS peaks differentiating sample categories.

BACKGROUND: Mass spectrometry (MS) has evolved to become the primary high throughput tool for proteomics based biomarker discovery. Until now, multiple challenges in protein MS data analysis remain: large-scale and complex data set management; MS peak identification, indexing; and high dimensional peak differential analysis with the concurrent statistical tests based false discovery rate (FDR). "Turnkey" solutions are needed for biomarker investigations to rapidly process MS data sets to identify statistically significant peaks for subsequent validation. FINDINGS: Here we present an efficient and effective solution, which provides experimental biologists easy access to "cloud" computing capabilities to analyze MS data. The web portal can be accessed at http://transmed.stanford.edu/ssa/. CONCLUSIONS: Presented web application supplies large scale MS data online uploading and analysis with a simple user interface. This bioinformatic tool will facilitate the discovery of the potential protein biomarkers using MS.

Correlation analyses of clinical and molecular findings identify candidate biological pathways in systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis.

BACKGROUND: Clinicians have long appreciated the distinct phenotype of systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (SJIA) compared to polyarticular juvenile idiopathic arthritis (POLY). We hypothesized that gene expression profiles of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from children with each disease would reveal distinct biological pathways when analyzed for significant associations with elevations in two markers of JIA activity, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and number of affected joints (joint count, JC). METHODS: PBMC RNA from SJIA and POLY patients was profiled by kinetic PCR to analyze expression of 181 genes, selected for relevance to immune response pathways. Pearson correlation and Student's t-test analyses were performed to identify transcripts significantly associated with clinical parameters (ESR and JC) in SJIA or POLY samples. These transcripts were used to find related biological pathways. RESULTS: Combining Pearson and t-test analyses, we found 91 ESR-related and 92 JC-related genes in SJIA. For POLY, 20 ESR-related and 0 JC-related genes were found. Using Ingenuity Systems Pathways Analysis, we identified SJIA ESR-related and JC-related pathways. The two sets of pathways are strongly correlated. In contrast, there is a weaker correlation between SJIA and POLY ESR-related pathways. Notably, distinct biological processes were found to correlate with JC in samples from the earlier systemic plus arthritic phase (SAF) of SJIA compared to samples from the later arthritis-predominant phase (AF). Within the SJIA SAF group, IL-10 expression was related to JC, whereas lack of IL-4 appeared to characterize the chronic arthritis (AF) subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: The strong correlation between pathways implicated in elevations of both ESR and JC in SJIA argues that the systemic and arthritic components of the disease are related mechanistically. Inflammatory pathways in SJIA are distinct from those in POLY course JIA, consistent with differences in clinically appreciated target organs. The limited number of ESR-related SJIA genes that also are associated with elevations of ESR in POLY implies that the SJIA associations are specific for SJIA, at least to some degree. The distinct pathways associated with arthritis in early and late SJIA raise the possibility that different immunobiology underlies arthritis over the course of SJIA.