Assessing the transportability of radiomic models for lung cancer diagnosis: commercial vs. open-source feature extractors.

Background: Radiomics has shown promise in improving malignancy risk stratification of indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs) with many platforms available, but with no head-to-head comparisons. This study aimed to evaluate transportability of radiomic models across platforms by comparing performances of a commercial radiomic feature extractor (HealthMyne) with an open-source extractor (PyRadiomics) on diagnosis of lung cancer in IPNs. Methods: A commercial radiomic feature extractor was used to segment IPNs from computed tomography (CT) scans, and a previously validated radiomic model based on commercial features was used as baseline (ComRad). Using same segmentation masks, PyRadiomics, an open-source feature extractor was used to build three open-source radiomic models (OpenRad) using different methods: de novo open-source model derived using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) for feature selection, selecting open-source features matched to ComRad features based upon Imaging Biomarker Standardization Initiative (IBSI) nomenclature, and selecting open-source features most highly correlated to ComRad features. Radiomic models were trained on an internal cohort (n=161) and externally validated on 3 cohorts (n=278). We added Mayo clinical risk score to OpenRad and ComRad models, creating integrated clinical radiomic (ClinRad) models. All models were compared using area under the curve (AUC) and evaluated for clinical improvement using bias-corrected clinical net reclassification indices (cNRIs). Results: ComRad AUC was 0.76 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.71-0.82], and OpenRad AUC was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.69-0.81) for LASSO model, 0.74 (95% CI: 0.68-0.79) for Spearman's correlation, and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65-0.77) for IBSI. Mayo scores were added to OpenRad LASSO model, which performed best, forming open-source ClinRad model with AUC of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.74-0.86), identical to commercial ClinRad's AUC. Both ClinRad models showed clinical improvement compared to Mayo alone, with commercial ClinRad achieving cNRI of 0.09 (95% CI: 0.02-0.15) for benign and 0.07 (95% CI: 0.00-0.13) for malignant, and open-source ClinRad achieving cNRI of 0.09 (95% CI: 0.02-0.15) for benign and 0.06 (95% CI: 0.00-0.12) for malignant. Conclusions: Transportability of radiomic models across platforms directly does not conserve performance, but radiomic platforms can provide equivalent results when building de novo models allowing for flexibility in feature selection to maximize prediction accuracy.

Utility of peripheral protein biomarkers for the prediction of incident interstitial features: a multicentre retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION/RATIONALE: Protein biomarkers may help enable the prediction of incident interstitial features on chest CT. METHODS: We identified which protein biomarkers in a cohort of smokers (COPDGene) differed between those with and without objectively measured interstitial features at baseline using a univariate screen (t-test false discovery rate, FDR p<0.001), and which of those were associated with interstitial features longitudinally (multivariable mixed effects model FDR p<0.05). To predict incident interstitial features, we trained four random forest classifiers in a two-thirds random subset of COPDGene: (1) imaging and demographic information, (2) univariate screen biomarkers, (3) multivariable confirmation biomarkers and (4) multivariable confirmation biomarkers available in a separate testing cohort (Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS)). We evaluated classifier performance in the remaining one-third of COPDGene, and, for the final model, also in PLuSS. RESULTS: In COPDGene, 1305 biomarkers were available and 20 differed between those with and without interstitial features at baseline. Of these, 11 were associated with feature progression over a mean of 5.5 years of follow-up, and of these 4 were available in PLuSS, (angiopoietin-2, matrix metalloproteinase 7, macrophage inflammatory protein 1 alpha) over a mean of 8.8 years of follow-up. The area under the curve (AUC) of classifiers using demographics and imaging features in COPDGene and PLuSS were 0.69 and 0.59, respectively. In COPDGene, the AUC of the univariate screen classifier was 0.78 and of the multivariable confirmation classifier was 0.76. The AUC of the final classifier in COPDGene was 0.75 and in PLuSS was 0.76. The outcome for all of the models was the development of incident interstitial features. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple novel and previously identified proteomic biomarkers are associated with interstitial features on chest CT and may enable the prediction of incident interstitial diseases such as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Improving long COVID-related text classification: a novel end-to-end domain-adaptive paraphrasing framework.

The emergence of long COVID during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has presented considerable challenges for healthcare professionals and researchers. The task of identifying relevant literature is particularly daunting due to the rapidly evolving scientific landscape, inconsistent definitions, and a lack of standardized nomenclature. This paper proposes a novel solution to this challenge by employing machine learning techniques to classify long COVID literature. However, the scarcity of annotated data for machine learning poses a significant obstacle. To overcome this, we introduce a strategy called medical paraphrasing, which diversifies the training data while maintaining the original content. Additionally, we propose a Data-Reweighting-Based Multi-Level Optimization Framework for Domain Adaptive Paraphrasing, supported by a Meta-Weight-Network (MWN). This innovative approach incorporates feedback from the downstream text classification model to influence the training of the paraphrasing model. During the training process, the framework assigns higher weights to the training examples that contribute more effectively to the downstream task of long COVID text classification. Our findings demonstrate that this method substantially improves the accuracy and efficiency of long COVID literature classification, offering a valuable tool for physicians and researchers navigating this complex and ever-evolving field.

Radiomics analysis to predict pulmonary nodule malignancy using machine learning approaches.

BACKGROUND: Low-dose CT screening can reduce lung cancer-related mortality. However, most screen-detected pulmonary abnormalities do not develop into cancer and it often remains challenging to identify malignant nodules, particularly among indeterminate nodules. We aimed to develop and assess prediction models based on radiological features to discriminate between benign and malignant pulmonary lesions detected on a baseline screen. METHODS: Using four international lung cancer screening studies, we extracted 2060 radiomic features for each of 16 797 nodules (513 malignant) among 6865 participants. After filtering out low-quality radiomic features, 642 radiomic and 9 epidemiological features remained for model development. We used cross-validation and grid search to assess three machine learning (ML) models (eXtreme Gradient Boosted Trees, random forest, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)) for their ability to accurately predict risk of malignancy for pulmonary nodules. We report model performance based on the area under the curve (AUC) and calibration metrics in the held-out test set. RESULTS: The LASSO model yielded the best predictive performance in cross-validation and was fit in the full training set based on optimised hyperparameters. Our radiomics model had a test-set AUC of 0.93 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.96) and outperformed the established Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer model (AUC 0.87, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.89) for nodule assessment. Our model performed well among both solid (AUC 0.93, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.97) and subsolid nodules (AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.85 to 0.95). CONCLUSIONS: We developed highly accurate ML models based on radiomic and epidemiological features from four international lung cancer screening studies that may be suitable for assessing indeterminate screen-detected pulmonary nodules for risk of malignancy.

Improving lung cancer diagnosis with cancer, fungal, and imaging biomarkers.

OBJECTIVE: Indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs) represent a significant diagnostic burden in health care. We aimed to compare a combination clinical prediction model (Mayo Clinic model), fungal (histoplasmosis serology), imaging (computed tomography [CT] radiomics), and cancer (high-sensitivity cytokeratin fraction 21; hsCYFRA 21-1) biomarker approach to a validated prediction model in diagnosing lung cancer. METHODS: A prospective specimen collection, retrospective blinded evaluation study was performed in 3 independent cohorts with 6- to 30-mm IPNs (n = 281). Serum histoplasmosis immunoglobulin G and immunoglobulin M antibodies and hsCYFRA 21-1 levels were measured and a validated CT radiomic score was calculated. Multivariable logistic regression models were estimated with Mayo Clinic model variables, histoplasmosis antibody levels, CT radiomic score, and hsCYFRA 21-1. Diagnostic performance of the combination model was compared with that of the Mayo Clinic model. Bias-corrected clinical net reclassification index (cNRI) was used to estimate the clinical utility of a combination biomarker approach. RESULTS: A total of 281 patients were included (111 from a histoplasmosis-endemic region). The combination biomarker model including the Mayo Clinic model score, histoplasmosis antibody levels, radiomics, and hsCYFRA 21-1 level showed improved diagnostic accuracy for IPNs compared with the Mayo Clinic model alone with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76-0.84) versus 0.72 (95% CI, 0.66-0.78). Use of this combination model correctly reclassified intermediate risk IPNs into low- or high-risk category (cNRI benign = 0.11 and cNRI malignant = 0.16). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of cancer, fungal, and imaging biomarkers improves the diagnostic accuracy for IPNs. Integrating a combination biomarker approach into the diagnostic algorithm of IPNs might decrease unnecessary invasive testing of benign nodules and reduce time to diagnosis for cancer.

Re-scaling and small area estimation of behavioral risk survey guided by social vulnerability data.

BACKGROUND: Local governments and other public health entities often need population health measures at the county or subcounty level for activities such as resource allocation and targeting public health interventions, among others. Information collected via national surveys alone cannot fill these needs. We propose a novel, two-step method for rescaling health survey data and creating small area estimates (SAEs) of smoking rates using a Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey administered in 2015 to participants living in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, USA. METHODS: The first step consisted of a spatial microsimulation to rescale location of survey respondents from zip codes to tracts based on census population distributions by age, sex, race, and education. The rescaling allowed us, in the second step, to utilize available census tract-specific ancillary data on social vulnerability for small area estimation of local health risk using an area-level version of a logistic linear mixed model. To demonstrate this new two-step algorithm, we estimated the ever-smoking rate for the census tracts of Allegheny County. RESULTS: The ever-smoking rate was above 70% for two census tracts to the southeast of the city of Pittsburgh. Several tracts in the southern and eastern sections of Pittsburgh also had relatively high (> 65%) ever-smoking rates. CONCLUSIONS: These SAEs may be used in local public health efforts to target interventions and educational resources aimed at reducing cigarette smoking. Further, our new two-step methodology may be extended to small area estimation for other locations and health outcomes.

Quantitative Interstitial Abnormality Progression and Outcomes in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD and Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: The risk factors and clinical outcomes of quantitative interstitial abnormality progression over time have not been characterized. RESEARCH QUESTIONS: What are the associations of quantitative interstitial abnormality progression with lung function, exercise capacity, and mortality? What are the demographic and genetic risk factors for quantitative interstitial abnormality progression? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Quantitative interstitial abnormality progression between visits 1 and 2 was assessed from 4,635 participants in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) cohort and 1,307 participants in the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS) cohort. We used multivariable linear regression to determine the risk factors for progression and the longitudinal associations between progression and FVC and 6-min walk distance, and Cox regression models for the association with mortality. RESULTS: Age at enrollment, female sex, current smoking status, and the MUC5B minor allele were associated with quantitative interstitial abnormality progression. Each percent annual increase in quantitative interstitial abnormalities was associated with annual declines in FVC (COPDGene: 8.5 mL/y; 95% CI, 4.7-12.4 mL/y; P < .001; PLuSS: 9.5 mL/y; 95% CI, 3.7-15.4 mL/y; P = .001) and 6-min walk distance, and increased mortality (COPDGene: hazard ratio, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.34-2.12; P < .001; PLuSS: hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.10-1.49; P = .001). INTERPRETATION: The objective, longitudinal measurement of quantitative interstitial abnormalities may help identify people at greatest risk for adverse events and most likely to benefit from early intervention.

Improving Lung Cancer Diagnosis with CT Radiomics and Serum Histoplasmosis Testing.

BACKGROUND: Indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPN) are a diagnostic challenge in regions where pulmonary fungal disease and smoking prevalence are high. We aimed to determine the impact of a combined fungal and imaging biomarker approach compared with a validated prediction model (Mayo) to rule out benign disease and diagnose lung cancer. METHODS: Adults ages 40 to 90 years with 6-30 mm IPNs were included from four sites. Serum samples were tested for histoplasmosis IgG and IgM antibodies by enzyme immunoassay and a CT-based risk score was estimated from a validated radiomic model. Multivariable logistic regression models including Mayo score, radiomics score, and IgG and IgM histoplasmosis antibody levels were estimated. The areas under the ROC curves (AUC) of the models were compared among themselves and to Mayo. Bias-corrected clinical net reclassification index (cNRI) was estimated to assess clinical reclassification using a combined biomarker model. RESULTS: We included 327 patients; 157 from histoplasmosis-endemic regions. The combined biomarker model including radiomics, histoplasmosis serology, and Mayo score demonstrated improved diagnostic accuracy when endemic histoplasmosis was accounted for [AUC, 0.84; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.79-0.88; P < 0.0001 compared with 0.73; 95% CI, 0.67-0.78 for Mayo]. The combined model demonstrated improved reclassification with cNRI of 0.18 among malignant nodules. CONCLUSIONS: Fungal and imaging biomarkers may improve diagnostic accuracy and meaningfully reclassify IPNs. The endemic prevalence of histoplasmosis and cancer impact model performance when using disease related biomarkers. IMPACT: Integrating a combined biomarker approach into the diagnostic algorithm of IPNs could decrease time to diagnosis.

Early natural menopause is associated with poor lung health and increased mortality among female smokers.

BACKGROUND: Early natural menopause has been regarded as a biomarker of reproductive and somatic aging. Cigarette smoking is the most harmful factor for lung health and also an established risk factor for early menopause. Understanding the effect of early menopause on health outcomes in middle-aged and older female smokers is important to develop preventive strategies. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine the associations of early menopause with multiple lung health and aging biomarkers, lung cancer risk, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality in postmenopausal women who were moderate or heavy smokers. STUDY DESIGN: This study was conducted on postmenopausal women with natural (n=1038) or surgical (n=628) menopause from the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study. The Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study is a community-based research cohort of current and former smokers, screened with low-dose computed tomography and followed up for lung cancer. Early menopause was defined as occurring before 45 years of age. The analyses were stratified by menopause types because of the different biological and medical causes of natural and surgical menopause. Statistical methods included linear model, generalized linear model, linear mixed-effects model, and time-to-event analysis. RESULTS: The average age of the 1666 female smokers was 59.4±6.7 years, with 1519 (91.2%) of the population as non-Hispanic Whites and 1064 (63.9%) of the population as current smokers at baseline. Overall, 646 (39%) women reported early menopause, including 198 (19.1%) women with natural menopause and 448 (71.3%) women with surgical menopause (P<.001). Demographic variables did not differ between early and nonearly menopause groups, regardless of menopause type. Significant associations were identified between early natural menopause and higher risk of wheezing (odds ratio, 1.65; P<.01), chronic bronchitis (odds ratio, 1.73; P<.01), and radiographic emphysema (odds ratio, 1.70; P<.001) and lower baseline lung spirometry in an obstructive pattern (-104.8 mL/s for forced expiratory volume in the first second with P<.01, -78.6 mL for forced vital capacity with P=.04, and -2.1% for forced expiratory volume in the first second-to-forced vital capacity ratio with P=.01). In addition, early natural menopause was associated with a more rapid decline of forced expiratory volume in the first second-to-forced vital capacity ratio (-0.16% per year; P=.01) and incident airway obstruction (odds ratio, 2.02; P=.04). Furthermore, women early natural menopause had a 40% increased risk of death (P=.023), which was mainly driven by respiratory diseases (hazard ratio, 2.32; P<.001). Mediation analyses further identified that more than 33.3% of the magnitude of the associations between early natural menopause and all-cause and respiratory mortality were explained by baseline forced expiratory volume in the first second. Additional analyses in women with natural menopause identified that the associations between continuous smoking and subsequent lung cancer risk and cancer mortality were moderated by early menopause status, and females with early natural menopause who continued smoking had the worst outcomes (hazard ratio, >4.6; P<.001). This study did not find associations reported above in female smokers with surgical menopause. CONCLUSION: Early natural menopause was found to be a risk factor for malignant and nonmalignant lung diseases and mortality in middle-aged and older female smokers. These findings have strong public health relevance as preventive strategies, including smoking cessation and chest computed tomography screening, should target this population (ie, female smokers with early natural menopause) to improve their postmenopausal health and well-being.

Plasma Based Protein Signatures Associated with Small Cell Lung Cancer.

Small-cell-lung cancer (SCLC) is associated with overexpression of oncogenes including Myc family genes and YAP1 and inactivation of tumor suppressor genes. We performed in-depth proteomic profiling of plasmas collected from 15 individuals with newly diagnosed early stage SCLC and from 15 individuals before the diagnosis of SCLC and compared findings with plasma proteomic profiles of 30 matched controls to determine the occurrence of signatures that reflect disease pathogenesis. A total of 272 proteins were elevated (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) ≥ 0.60) among newly diagnosed cases compared to matched controls of which 31 proteins were also elevated (AUC ≥ 0.60) in case plasmas collected within one year prior to diagnosis. Ingenuity Pathway analyses of SCLC-associated proteins revealed enrichment of signatures of oncogenic MYC and YAP1. Intersection of proteins elevated in case plasmas with proteomic profiles of conditioned medium from 17 SCLC cell lines yielded 52 overlapping proteins characterized by YAP1-associated signatures of cytoskeletal re-arrangement and epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition. Among samples collected more than one year prior to diagnosis there was a predominance of inflammatory markers. Our integrated analyses identified novel circulating protein features in early stage SCLC associated with oncogenic drivers.

Integrated Biomarkers for the Management of Indeterminate Pulmonary Nodules.

Rationale: Patients with indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPNs) at risk of cancer undergo high rates of invasive, costly, and morbid procedures. Objectives: To train and externally validate a risk prediction model that combined clinical, blood, and imaging biomarkers to improve the noninvasive management of IPNs. Methods: In this prospectively collected, retrospective blinded evaluation study, probability of cancer was calculated for 456 patient nodules using the Mayo Clinic model, and patients were categorized into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups. A combined biomarker model (CBM) including clinical variables, serum high sensitivity CYFRA 21-1 level, and a radiomic signature was trained in cohort 1 (n = 170) and validated in cohorts 2-4 (total n = 286). All patients were pooled to recalibrate the model for clinical implementation. The clinical utility of the CBM compared with current clinical care was evaluated in 2 cohorts. Measurements and Main Results: The CBM provided improved diagnostic accuracy over the Mayo Clinic model with an improvement in area under the curve of 0.124 (95% bootstrap confidence interval, 0.091-0.156; P < 2 × 10-16). Applying 10% and 70% risk thresholds resulted in a bias-corrected clinical reclassification index for cases and control subjects of 0.15 and 0.12, respectively. A clinical utility analysis of patient medical records estimated that a CBM-guided strategy would have reduced invasive procedures from 62.9% to 50.6% in the intermediate-risk benign population and shortened the median time to diagnosis of cancer from 60 to 21 days in intermediate-risk cancers. Conclusions: Integration of clinical, blood, and image biomarkers improves noninvasive diagnosis of patients with IPNs, potentially reducing the rate of unnecessary invasive procedures while shortening the time to diagnosis.

Automated quantification of COVID-19 severity and progression using chest CT images.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and test computer software to detect, quantify, and monitor progression of pneumonia associated with COVID-19 using chest CT scans. METHODS: One hundred twenty chest CT scans from subjects with lung infiltrates were used for training deep learning algorithms to segment lung regions and vessels. Seventy-two serial scans from 24 COVID-19 subjects were used to develop and test algorithms to detect and quantify the presence and progression of infiltrates associated with COVID-19. The algorithm included (1) automated lung boundary and vessel segmentation, (2) registration of the lung boundary between serial scans, (3) computerized identification of the pneumonitis regions, and (4) assessment of disease progression. Agreement between radiologist manually delineated regions and computer-detected regions was assessed using the Dice coefficient. Serial scans were registered and used to generate a heatmap visualizing the change between scans. Two radiologists, using a five-point Likert scale, subjectively rated heatmap accuracy in representing progression. RESULTS: There was strong agreement between computer detection and the manual delineation of pneumonic regions with a Dice coefficient of 81% (CI 76-86%). In detecting large pneumonia regions (> 200 mm3), the algorithm had a sensitivity of 95% (CI 94-97%) and specificity of 84% (CI 81-86%). Radiologists rated 95% (CI 72 to 99) of heatmaps at least "acceptable" for representing disease progression. CONCLUSION: The preliminary results suggested the feasibility of using computer software to detect and quantify pneumonic regions associated with COVID-19 and to generate heatmaps that can be used to visualize and assess progression. KEY POINTS: • Both computer vision and deep learning technology were used to develop computer software to quantify the presence and progression of pneumonia associated with COVID-19 depicted on CT images. • The computer software was tested using both quantitative experiments and subjective assessment. • The computer software has the potential to assist in the detection of the pneumonic regions, monitor disease progression, and assess treatment efficacy related to COVID-19.

Exploring the Impact of Lung Cancer Screening on Lung Cancer Mortality of Smokers With Obstructive Lung Disease: Analysis of the NLST-ACRIN Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Lung Cancer (LC) screening with low dose chest computed tomography (LDCT) in smokers reduces LC mortality. Patients with Obstructive Lung Disease (OLD) are at high risk for LC. The potential effect of LC screening in this population is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine if screening with LDCT reduces LC mortality in smokers with spirometrically defined OLD. METHODS: The National Lung Screening Trial-American College of Radiology Imaging Network (NLST-ACRIN) study included 13,831 subjects (55-74 years of age with ≥30 pack-year history of smoking) that had a baseline spirometry. Randomly assigned to LDCT or Chest X-ray, all had 3 annual rounds of screening. LC mortality was compared between the LDCT and chest X-ray arms during the 1st year and at 6 years of follow up. Landmark analysis explored LC mortality differences between arms after the first year. RESULTS: From the 4584 subjects with OLD (FEV1/FVC <0.7), 152 (3.3%) died from LC. Multivariable analysis showed that screening trended to decrease LC mortality at 6 years (HR, 95%CI: 0.75, 0.55-1.04, p=0.09). During the 1st year no differences were found between arms (p=0.65). However, after this year, LDCT significantly decreased LC mortality (HR, 95%CI: 0.63, 0.44-0.91, p=0.01). The number needed to screen to avoid one LC death in these subjects was 108 while in those without OLD was 218. CONCLUSIONS: LC screening with LDCT in smokers with spirometrically diagnosed OLD, showed a trend to reduce lung cancer mortality but a study with a larger number of patients and with a more robust design would be needed to confirm these findings.

Validation of Histoplasmosis Enzyme Immunoassay to Evaluate Suspicious Lung Nodules.

BACKGROUND: Granulomas caused by infectious lung diseases can present as indeterminate pulmonary nodules (IPN). This study aims to validate an enzyme immunoassay (EIA) for Histoplasma immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin M (IgM) for diagnosing benign IPN in areas with endemic histoplasmosis. METHODS: Prospectively collected serum samples from patients at Vanderbilt University Medical Center (VUMC [n = 204]), University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (n = 71), and University of Cincinnati (n = 51) with IPN measuring 6 to 30 mm were analyzed for Histoplasma IgG and IgM with EIA. Diagnostic test characteristics were compared with results from the VUMC pilot cohort (n = 127). A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to predict granuloma in IPN. RESULTS: Cancer prevalence varied by cohort: VUMC pilot 60%, VUMC validation 65%, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center 35%, and University of Cincinnati 75%. Across all cohorts, 19% of patients had positive IgG titers, 5% had positive IgM, and 3% had positive both IgG and IgM. Of patients with benign disease, 33% were positive for at least one antibody. All patients positive for both IgG and IgM antibodies at acute infection levels had benign disease (n = 13), with a positive predictive value of 100%. The prediction model for granuloma in IPN demonstrated an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve of 0.84 and Brier score of 0.10. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirmed that Histoplasma EIA testing can be useful for diagnosing benign IPN in areas with endemic histoplasmosis in a population at high risk for lung cancer. Integrating Histoplasma EIA testing into the current diagnostic algorithm where histoplasmosis is endemic could improve management of IPN and potentially decrease unnecessary invasive biopsies.

Contribution of a Blood-Based Protein Biomarker Panel to the Classification of Indeterminate Pulmonary Nodules.

RATIONALE: The workup and longitudinal monitoring for subjects presenting with pulmonary nodules is a pressing clinical problem. A blood-based biomarker panel potentially has utility for identifying subjects at higher risk for harboring a malignant nodule for whom additional workup would be indicated or subjects at reduced risk for whom imaging-based follow-up would be indicated. OBJECTIVES: To assess whether a previously described four-protein biomarker panel, reported to improve assessment of lung cancer risk compared with a smoking-based lung cancer risk model, can provide discrimination between benign and malignant indeterminate pulmonary nodules. METHODS: A previously validated multiplex enzyme-linked immunoassay was performed on matched case and control samples from each cohort. MEASUREMENTS: The biomarker panel was tested in two case-control cohorts of patients presenting with indeterminate pulmonary nodules at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center and the University of Texas Southwestern. MAIN RESULTS: In both cohorts, the biomarker panel resulted in improved prediction of lung cancer risk over a model on the basis of nodule size alone. Of particular note, the addition of the marker panel to nodule size greatly improved sensitivity at a high specificity in both cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: A four-marker biomarker panel, previously validated to improve lung cancer risk prediction, was found to also have utility in distinguishing benign from malignant indeterminate pulmonary nodules. Its performance in improving sensitivity at a high specificity indicates potential utility of the marker panel in assessing likelihood of malignancy in otherwise indeterminate nodules.

Quantifying the incremental value of deep learning: Application to lung nodule detection.

We present a case study for implementing a machine learning algorithm with an incremental value framework in the domain of lung cancer research. Machine learning methods have often been shown to be competitive with prediction models in some domains; however, implementation of these methods is in early development. Often these methods are only directly compared to existing methods; here we present a framework for assessing the value of a machine learning model by assessing the incremental value. We developed a machine learning model to identify and classify lung nodules and assessed the incremental value added to existing risk prediction models. Multiple external datasets were used for validation. We found that our image model, trained on a dataset from The Cancer Imaging Archive (TCIA), improves upon existing models that are restricted to patient characteristics, but it was inconclusive about whether it improves on models that consider nodule features. Another interesting finding is the variable performance on different datasets, suggesting population generalization with machine learning models may be more challenging than is often considered.