Application of a deep-learning marker for morbidity and mortality prediction derived from retinal photographs: a cohort development and validation study.

BACKGROUND: Biological ageing markers are useful to risk stratify morbidity and mortality more precisely than chronological age. In this study, we aimed to develop a novel deep-learning-based biological ageing marker (referred to as RetiPhenoAge hereafter) using retinal images and PhenoAge, a composite biomarker of phenotypic age. METHODS: We used retinal photographs from the UK Biobank dataset to train a deep-learning algorithm to predict the composite score of PhenoAge. We used a deep convolutional neural network architecture with multiple layers to develop our deep-learning-based biological ageing marker, as RetiPhenoAge, with the aim of identifying patterns and features in the retina associated with variations of blood biomarkers related to renal, immune, liver functions, inflammation, and energy metabolism, and chronological age. We determined the performance of this biological ageing marker for the prediction of morbidity (cardiovascular disease and cancer events) and mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular disease, and cancer) in three independent cohorts (UK Biobank, the Singapore Epidemiology of Eye Diseases [SEED], and the Age-Related Eye Disease Study [AREDS] from the USA). We also compared the performance of RetiPhenoAge with two other known ageing biomarkers (hand grip strength and adjusted leukocyte telomere length) and one lifestyle factor (physical activity) for risk stratification of mortality and morbidity. We explored the underlying biology of RetiPhenoAge by assessing its associations with different systemic characteristics (eg, diabetes or hypertension) and blood metabolite levels. We also did a genome-wide association study to identify genetic variants associated with RetiPhenoAge, followed by expression quantitative trait loci mapping, a gene-based analysis, and a gene-set analysis. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% CIs for the associations between RetiPhenoAge and the different morbidity and mortality outcomes. FINDINGS: Retinal photographs for 34 061 UK Biobank participants were used to train the model, and data for 9429 participants from the SEED cohort and for 3986 participants from the AREDS cohort were included in the study. RetiPhenoAge was associated with all-cause mortality (HR 1·92 [95% CI 1·42-2·61]), cardiovascular disease mortality (1·97 [1·02-3·82]), cancer mortality (2·07 [1·29-3·33]), and cardiovascular disease events (1·70 [1·17-2·47]), independent of PhenoAge and other possible confounders. Similar findings were found in the two independent cohorts (HR 1·67 [1·21-2·31] for cardiovascular disease mortality in SEED and 2·07 [1·10-3·92] in AREDS). RetiPhenoAge had stronger associations with mortality and morbidity than did hand grip strength, telomere length, and physical activity. We identified two genetic variants that were significantly associated with RetiPhenoAge (single nucleotide polymorphisms rs3791224 and rs8001273), and were linked to expression quantitative trait locis in various tissues, including the heart, kidneys, and the brain. INTERPRETATION: Our new deep-learning-derived biological ageing marker is a robust predictor of mortality and morbidity outcomes and could be used as a novel non-invasive method to measure ageing. FUNDING: Singapore National Medical Research Council and Agency for Science, Technology and Research, Singapore.

Screening chronic kidney disease through deep learning utilizing ultra-wide-field fundus images.

To address challenges in screening for chronic kidney disease (CKD), we devised a deep learning-based CKD screening model named UWF-CKDS. It utilizes ultra-wide-field (UWF) fundus images to predict the presence of CKD. We validated the model with data from 23 tertiary hospitals across China. Retinal vessels and retinal microvascular parameters (RMPs) were extracted to enhance model interpretability, which revealed a significant correlation between renal function and RMPs. UWF-CKDS, utilizing UWF images, RMPs, and relevant medical history, can accurately determine CKD status. Importantly, UWF-CKDS exhibited superior performance compared to CTR-CKDS, a model developed using the central region (CTR) cropped from UWF images, underscoring the contribution of the peripheral retina in predicting renal function. The study presents UWF-CKDS as a highly implementable method for large-scale and accurate CKD screening at the population level.

Current research and future strategies for the management of vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy.

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a major ocular complication of diabetes and the leading cause of blindness and visual impairment, particularly among adults of working-age adults. Although the medical and economic burden of DR is significant and its global prevalence is expected to increase, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, a large portion of vision loss caused by DR remains preventable through early detection and timely intervention. This perspective reviewed the latest developments in research and innovation in three areas, first novel biomarkers (including advanced imaging modalities, serum biomarkers, and artificial intelligence technology) to predict the incidence and progression of DR, second, screening and early detection of referable DR and vision-threatening DR (VTDR), and finally, novel therapeutic strategies for VTDR, including diabetic macular oedema (DME), with the goal of reducing diabetic blindness.

A Competition for the Diagnosis of Myopic Maculopathy by Artificial Intelligence Algorithms.

Importance: Myopic maculopathy (MM) is a major cause of vision impairment globally. Artificial intelligence (AI) and deep learning (DL) algorithms for detecting MM from fundus images could potentially improve diagnosis and assist screening in a variety of health care settings. Objectives: To evaluate DL algorithms for MM classification and segmentation and compare their performance with that of ophthalmologists. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Myopic Maculopathy Analysis Challenge (MMAC) was an international competition to develop automated solutions for 3 tasks: (1) MM classification, (2) segmentation of MM plus lesions, and (3) spherical equivalent (SE) prediction. Participants were provided 3 subdatasets containing 2306, 294, and 2003 fundus images, respectively, with which to build algorithms. A group of 5 ophthalmologists evaluated the same test sets for tasks 1 and 2 to ascertain performance. Results from model ensembles, which combined outcomes from multiple algorithms submitted by MMAC participants, were compared with each individual submitted algorithm. This study was conducted from March 1, 2023, to March 30, 2024, and data were analyzed from January 15, 2024, to March 30, 2024. Exposure: DL algorithms submitted as part of the MMAC competition or ophthalmologist interpretation. Main Outcomes and Measures: MM classification was evaluated by quadratic-weighted κ (QWK), F1 score, sensitivity, and specificity. MM plus lesions segmentation was evaluated by dice similarity coefficient (DSC), and SE prediction was evaluated by R2 and mean absolute error (MAE). Results: The 3 tasks were completed by 7, 4, and 4 teams, respectively. MM classification algorithms achieved a QWK range of 0.866 to 0.901, an F1 score range of 0.675 to 0.781, a sensitivity range of 0.667 to 0.778, and a specificity range of 0.931 to 0.945. MM plus lesions segmentation algorithms achieved a DSC range of 0.664 to 0.687 for lacquer cracks (LC), 0.579 to 0.673 for choroidal neovascularization, and 0.768 to 0.841 for Fuchs spot (FS). SE prediction algorithms achieved an R2 range of 0.791 to 0.874 and an MAE range of 0.708 to 0.943. Model ensemble results achieved the best performance compared to each submitted algorithms, and the model ensemble outperformed ophthalmologists at MM classification in sensitivity (0.801; 95% CI, 0.764-0.840 vs 0.727; 95% CI, 0.684-0.768; P = .006) and specificity (0.946; 95% CI, 0.939-0.954 vs 0.933; 95% CI, 0.925-0.941; P = .009), LC segmentation (DSC, 0.698; 95% CI, 0.649-0.745 vs DSC, 0.570; 95% CI, 0.515-0.625; P < .001), and FS segmentation (DSC, 0.863; 95% CI, 0.831-0.888 vs DSC, 0.790; 95% CI, 0.742-0.830; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this diagnostic study, 15 AI models for MM classification and segmentation on a public dataset made available for the MMAC competition were validated and evaluated, with some models achieving better diagnostic performance than ophthalmologists.

Multi-dimensional epidemiology and informatics data on COVID-19 wave at the end of zero COVID policy in China.

Background: China exited strict Zero-COVID policy with a surge in Omicron variant infections in December 2022. Given China's pandemic policy and population immunity, employing Baidu Index (BDI) to analyze the evolving disease landscape and estimate the nationwide pneumonia hospitalizations in the post Zero COVID period, validated by hospital data, holds informative potential for future outbreaks. Methods: Retrospective observational analyses were conducted at the conclusion of the Zero-COVID policy, integrating internet search data alongside offline records. Methodologies employed were multidimensional, encompassing lagged Spearman correlation analysis, growth rate assessments, independent sample T-tests, Granger causality examinations, and Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) models for comprehensive data scrutiny. Results: Various diseases exhibited a notable upsurge in the BDI after the policy change, consistent with the broader trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic. Robust connections emerged between COVID-19 and diverse health conditions, predominantly impacting the respiratory, circulatory, ophthalmological, and neurological domains. Notably, 34 diseases displayed a relatively high correlation (r > 0.5) with COVID-19. Among these, 12 exhibited a growth rate exceeding 50% post-policy transition, with myocarditis escalating by 1,708% and pneumonia by 1,332%. In these 34 diseases, causal relationships have been confirmed for 23 of them, while 28 garnered validation from hospital-based evidence. Notably, 19 diseases obtained concurrent validation from both Granger causality and hospital-based data. Finally, the BSTS models approximated approximately 4,332,655 inpatients diagnosed with pneumonia nationwide during the 2 months subsequent to the policy relaxation. Conclusion: This investigation elucidated substantial associations between COVID-19 and respiratory, circulatory, ophthalmological, and neurological disorders. The outcomes from comprehensive multi-dimensional cross-over studies notably augmented the robustness of our comprehension of COVID-19's disease spectrum, advocating for the prospective utility of internet-derived data. Our research highlights the potential of Internet behavior in predicting pandemic-related syndromes, emphasizing its importance for public health strategies, resource allocation, and preparedness for future outbreaks.

Latest developments of generative artificial intelligence and applications in ophthalmology.

The emergence of generative artificial intelligence (AI) has revolutionized various fields. In ophthalmology, generative AI has the potential to enhance efficiency, accuracy, personalization and innovation in clinical practice and medical research, through processing data, streamlining medical documentation, facilitating patient-doctor communication, aiding in clinical decision-making, and simulating clinical trials. This review focuses on the development and integration of generative AI models into clinical workflows and scientific research of ophthalmology. It outlines the need for development of a standard framework for comprehensive assessments, robust evidence, and exploration of the potential of multimodal capabilities and intelligent agents. Additionally, the review addresses the risks in AI model development and application in clinical service and research of ophthalmology, including data privacy, data bias, adaptation friction, over interdependence, and job replacement, based on which we summarized a risk management framework to mitigate these concerns. This review highlights the transformative potential of generative AI in enhancing patient care, improving operational efficiency in the clinical service and research in ophthalmology. It also advocates for a balanced approach to its adoption.

Value proposition of retinal imaging in Alzheimer's disease screening: A review of eight evolving trends.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is the leading cause of dementia worldwide. Current diagnostic modalities of AD generally focus on detecting the presence of amyloid ß and tau protein in the brain (for example, positron emission tomography [PET] and cerebrospinal fluid testing), but these are limited by their high cost, invasiveness, and lack of expertise. Retinal imaging exhibits potential in AD screening and risk stratification, as the retina provides a platform for the optical visualization of the central nervous system in vivo, with vascular and neuronal changes that mirror brain pathology. Given the paradigm shift brought by advances in artificial intelligence and the emergence of disease-modifying therapies, this article aims to summarize and review the current literature to highlight 8 trends in an evolving landscape regarding the role and potential value of retinal imaging in AD screening.

Housing status is protective of neuropsychiatric symptoms among dementia-free multi-ethnic Asian elderly.

BACKGROUND: Housing has been associated with dementia risk and disability, but associations of housing with differential patterns of neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) among dementia-free older adults remain to be explored. The present study sought to explore the contribution of housing status on NPS and subsyndromes associated with cognitive dysfunction in community-dwelling dementia-free elderly in Singapore. METHODS: A total of 839 dementia-free elderly from the Epidemiology of Dementia in Singapore (EDIS) study aged ≥ 60 were enrolled in the current study. All participants underwent clinical, cognitive, and neuropsychiatric inventory (NPI) assessments. The housing status was divided into three categories according to housing type. Cognitive function was measured by a comprehensive neuropsychological battery. The NPS were assessed using 12-term NPI and were grouped into four clinical subsyndromes: psychosis, hyperactivity, affective, and apathy. Associations of housing with composite and domain-specific Z-scores, as well as NPI scores, were assessed using generalized linear models (GLM). Binary logistic regression models analysed the association of housing with the presence of NPS and significant NPS (NPI total scores ≥ 4). RESULTS: Better housing status (5-room executive apartments, condominium, or private housing) was associated with better NPS (OR = 0.49, 95%CI = 0.24 to 0.98, P < 0.05) and significant NPS profile (OR = 0.20, 95%CI = 0.08 to 0.46, P < 0.01), after controlling for demographics, risk factors, and cognitive performance. Compared with those living in 1-2 room apartments, older adults in better housing had lower total NPI scores (ß=-0.50, 95%CI=-0.95 to -0.04, P = 0.032) and lower psychosis scores (ß=-0.36, 95%CI=-0.66 to -0.05, P = 0.025), after controlling for socioeconomic status (SES) indexes. Subgroup analysis indicated a significant correlation between housing type and NPS in females, those of Malay ethnicity, the more educated, those with lower income, and those diagnosed with cognitive impairment, no dementia (CIND). CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed a protective effect of better housing arrangements on NPS, especially psychosis in a multi-ethnic Asian geriatric population without dementia. The protective effect of housing on NPS was independent of SES and might have other pathogenic mechanisms. Improving housing could be an effective way to prevent neuropsychiatric disturbance among the elderly.

Deep Learning-Enabled Vasculometry Depicts Phased Lesion Patterns in High Myopia Progression.

PURPOSE: To investigate the potential phases in myopic retinal vascular alterations for further elucidating the mechanisms underlying the progression of high myopia (HM). METHODS: For this retrospective study, participants diagnosed with high myopia at Beijing Tongren Hospital were recruited. Based on bionic mechanisms of human vision, an intelligent image processing model was developed and utilized to extract and quantify the morphological characteristics of retinal vasculatures in different regions measured by papilla-diameter (PD), including vascular caliber, arteriole-to-venule ratio (AVR), tortuosity, the angle of the vascular arch (AVA), the distance of the vascular arch (DVA), density, fractal dimension, and venular length. In addition, the optic disc and the area of peripapillary atrophy (PPA) were also quantified. The characteristics of the overall population, as well as patients aged less than 25 years old, were compared by different genders. Univariate and multiple linear regression analyses were conducted to investigate the correlation of retinal vasculature parameters with PPA width, and detailed trends of the vascular indicators were analyzed to explore the potential existence of staged morphological changes. FINDINGS: The study included 14,066 fundus photographs of 5775 patients (aged 41.2 ± 18.6 years), of whom 7379 (61.2 %) were female. The study included 12,067 fundus photographs of 5320 patients (aged 41.2 ± 18.6 years). Significant variations in the morphological parameters of retinal vessels were observed between males and females. After adjusting for age and sex, multiple linear regression analysis showed that an increased PPA width ratio was associated with lower AVA (1PD), DVA (1PD), vascular caliber (0.5-1.0 PD), tortuosity (0.5-1.0 PD), density and fractal dimension (all P < 0.001, Spearman's ρ < 0). Overall, the changes in retinal vascular morphology showed two phases: tortuosity (0.5-1.0PD) and AVA (1PD) decreased rapidly in the first stage but significantly more slowly in the second stage, while vascular density and fractal dimension showed a completely opposite trend with an initial slow decline followed by a rapid decrease. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified two distinct phases of retinal vascular morphological changes during the progression of HM. Traction lesions were predominant in the initial stage, while atrophic lesions were predominant in the later stage. These findings provide further insight into the development mechanism of HM from the perspective of retinal vasculature.

Deep learning-based image quality assessment for optical coherence tomography macular scans: a multicentre study.

AIMS: To develop and externally test deep learning (DL) models for assessing the image quality of three-dimensional (3D) macular scans from Cirrus and Spectralis optical coherence tomography devices. METHODS: We retrospectively collected two data sets including 2277 Cirrus 3D scans and 1557 Spectralis 3D scans, respectively, for training (70%), fine-tuning (10%) and internal validation (20%) from electronic medical and research records at The Chinese University of Hong Kong Eye Centre and the Hong Kong Eye Hospital. Scans with various eye diseases (eg, diabetic macular oedema, age-related macular degeneration, polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy and pathological myopia), and scans of normal eyes from adults and children were included. Two graders labelled each 3D scan as gradable or ungradable, according to standardised criteria. We used a 3D version of the residual network (ResNet)-18 for Cirrus 3D scans and a multiple-instance learning pipline with ResNet-18 for Spectralis 3D scans. Two deep learning (DL) models were further tested via three unseen Cirrus data sets from Singapore and five unseen Spectralis data sets from India, Australia and Hong Kong, respectively. RESULTS: In the internal validation, the models achieved the area under curves (AUCs) of 0.930 (0.885-0.976) and 0.906 (0.863-0.948) for assessing the Cirrus 3D scans and Spectralis 3D scans, respectively. In the external testing, the models showed robust performance with AUCs ranging from 0.832 (0.730-0.934) to 0.930 (0.906-0.953) and 0.891 (0.836-0.945) to 0.962 (0.918-1.000), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our models could be used for filtering out ungradable 3D scans and further incorporated with a disease-detection DL model, allowing a fully automated eye disease detection workflow.

Contributions of Lipid-Related Metabolites and Complement Proteins to Early and Intermediate Age-Related Macular Degeneration.

Objective: Our objective was to determine the effects of lipids and complement proteins on early and intermediate age-related macular degeneration (AMD) stages using machine learning models by integrating metabolomics and proteomic data. Design: Nested case-control study. Subjects and Controls: The analyses were performed in a subset of the Singapore Indian Chinese Cohort (SICC) Eye Study. Among the 6753 participants, we randomly selected 155 Indian and 155 Chinese cases of AMD and matched them with 310 controls on age, sex, and ethnicity. Methods: We measured 35 complement proteins and 56 lipids using mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance, respectively. We first selected the most contributing lipids and complement proteins to early and intermediate AMD using random forest models. Then, we estimated their effects using a multinomial model adjusted for potential confounders. Main Outcome Measures: Age-related macular degeneration was classified using the Beckman classification system. Results: Among the 310 individuals with AMD, 166 (53.5%) had early AMD, and 144 (46.5%) had intermediate AMD. First, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particle diameter was positively associated with both early and intermediate AMD (odds ratio [OR]early = 1.69; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.11-2.55 and ORintermediate = 1.72; 95% CI, 1.11-2.66 per 1-standard deviation increase in HDL diameter). Second, complement protein 2 (C2), complement C1 inhibitor (IC1), complement protein 6 (C6), complement protein 1QC (C1QC) and complement factor H-related protein 1 (FHR1), were associated with AMD. C2 was positively associated with both early and intermediate AMD (ORearly = 1.58; 95% CI, 1.08-2.30 and ORintermediate = 1.56; 95% CI, 1.04-2.34). C6 was positively (ORearly = 1.41; 95% CI, 1.03-1.93) associated with early AMD. However, IC1 was negatively associated with early AMD (ORearly = 0.62; 95% CI, 0.38-0.99), whereas C1QC (ORintermediate = 0.63; 95% CI, 0.42-0.93) and FHR1 (ORintermediate = 0.73; 95% CI, 0.54-0.98) were both negatively associated with intermediate AMD. Conclusions: Although both HDL diameter and C2 levels show associations with both early and intermediate AMD, dysregulations of IC1, C6, C1QC, and FHR1 are only observed at specific stages of AMD. These findings underscore the complexity of complement system dysregulation in AMD, which appears to vary depending on the disease severity. Financial Disclosures: The authors have no proprietary or commercial interest in any materials discussed in this article.

Exploring the fragility of meta-analyses in ophthalmology: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVE: The fragility index (FI) of a meta-analysis evaluates the extent that the statistical significance can be changed by modifying the event status of individuals from included trials. Understanding the FI improves the interpretation of the results of meta-analyses and can help to inform changes to clinical practice. This review determined the fragility of ophthalmology-related meta-analyses. METHODS: Meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials with binary outcomes published in a journal classified as 'Ophthalmology' according to the Journal Citation Report or an Ophthalmology-related Cochrane Review were included. An iterative process determined the FI of each meta-analysis. Multivariable linear regression modeling evaluated the relationship between the FI and potential predictive factors in statistically significant and non-significant meta-analyses. RESULTS: 175 meta-analyses were included. The median FI was 6 (Q1-Q3: 3-12). This meant that moving 6 outcomes from one group to another would reverse the study's findings. The FI was 1 for 18 (10.2%) of the included meta-analyses and was ≤5 for 75 (42.4%) of the included meta-analyses. The number of events (p < 0.001) and the p-value (p < 0.001) were the best predictors of the FI in both significant and non-significant meta-analyses. CONCLUSION: The statistical significance of meta-analyses in ophthalmology often hinges on the outcome of a few patients. The number of events and the p-value are the most important factors in determining the fragility of the evidence. The FI is an easily interpretable measure that can supplement the reader's understanding of the strength of the evidence being presented. PROSPERO REGISTRATION: CRD42022377589.

Comparing generative and retrieval-based chatbots in answering patient questions regarding age-related macular degeneration and diabetic retinopathy.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: To compare the performance of generative versus retrieval-based chatbots in answering patient inquiries regarding age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and diabetic retinopathy (DR). METHODS: We evaluated four chatbots: generative models (ChatGPT-4, ChatGPT-3.5 and Google Bard) and a retrieval-based model (OcularBERT) in a cross-sectional study. Their response accuracy to 45 questions (15 AMD, 15 DR and 15 others) was evaluated and compared. Three masked retinal specialists graded the responses using a three-point Likert scale: either 2 (good, error-free), 1 (borderline) or 0 (poor with significant inaccuracies). The scores were aggregated, ranging from 0 to 6. Based on majority consensus among the graders, the responses were also classified as 'Good', 'Borderline' or 'Poor' quality. RESULTS: Overall, ChatGPT-4 and ChatGPT-3.5 outperformed the other chatbots, both achieving median scores (IQR) of 6 (1), compared with 4.5 (2) in Google Bard, and 2 (1) in OcularBERT (all p ≤8.4×10-3). Based on the consensus approach, 83.3% of ChatGPT-4's responses and 86.7% of ChatGPT-3.5's were rated as 'Good', surpassing Google Bard (50%) and OcularBERT (10%) (all p ≤1.4×10-2). ChatGPT-4 and ChatGPT-3.5 had no 'Poor' rated responses. Google Bard produced 6.7% Poor responses, and OcularBERT produced 20%. Across question types, ChatGPT-4 outperformed Google Bard only for AMD, and ChatGPT-3.5 outperformed Google Bard for DR and others. CONCLUSION: ChatGPT-4 and ChatGPT-3.5 demonstrated superior performance, followed by Google Bard and OcularBERT. Generative chatbots are potentially capable of answering domain-specific questions outside their original training. Further validation studies are still required prior to real-world implementation.

Transition probabilities of diabetic retinopathy and death in an Asian population with diabetes.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the dynamic transitions in diabetic retinopathy (DR) severity over time and associated risk factors in an Asian population with diabetes. DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study METHODS: We analyzed data from 9481 adults in the Singapore Integrated Diabetic Retinopathy Screening Program (2010-2015) with linkage to death registry. A multistate Markov model adjusted for age, sex, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diabetes duration, HbA1c, and body mass index (BMI) was applied to estimate annual transition probabilities between four DR states (no, mild, moderate, and severe/proliferative) and death, and the mean sojourn time in each state. RESULTS: The median assessment interval was 12 months, with most patients having 3 assessments. Annual probabilities for DR progression (no-to-mild, mild-to-moderate and moderate-to-severe/proliferative) were 6.1 %, 7.0 % and 19.3 %, respectively; and for regression (mild-to-no, moderate-to-mild and severe-to-moderate) were 55.4 %, 17.3 % and 4.4 %, respectively. Annual mortality rates from each DR state were 1.2 %, 2.0 %, 18.7 %, and 30.0 %. The sojourn time in each state were 8.2, 0.8, 0.8 and 2.2 years. Higher HbA1c and SBP levels were associated with progression of no-mild and mild-moderate DR, and diabetes duration with no-to-mild and moderate-to-severe/proliferative DR. Lower HbA1c levels were associated with regression from mild-to-no and moderate-to-mild, and higher BMI with mild-to-no DR. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest a prolonged duration (∼8 years) in developing mild DR, with faster transitions (within a year) from mild or moderate states. Moderate/above DR greatly increases the probability of progression and death as compared to mild DR/below. HbA1c was associated with both progression as well as regression.

Defining the structure-function relationship of specific lesions in early and advanced age-related macular degeneration.

The objective of this study is to define structure-function relationships of pathological lesions related to age-related macular degeneration (AMD) using microperimetry and multimodal retinal imaging. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 87 patients with AMD (30 eyes with early and intermediate AMD and 110 eyes with advanced AMD), compared to 33 normal controls (66 eyes) recruited from a single tertiary center. All participants had enface and cross-sectional optical coherence tomography (Heidelberg HRA-2), OCT angiography, color and infra-red (IR) fundus and microperimetry (MP) (Nidek MP-3) performed. Multimodal images were graded for specific AMD pathological lesions. A custom marking tool was used to demarcate lesion boundaries on corresponding enface IR images, and subsequently superimposed onto MP color fundus photographs with retinal sensitivity points (RSP). The resulting overlay was used to correlate pathological structural changes to zonal functional changes. Mean age of patients with early/intermediate AMD, advanced AMD and controls were 73(SD = 8.2), 70.8(SD = 8), and 65.4(SD = 7.7) years respectively. Mean retinal sensitivity (MRS) of both early/intermediate (23.1 dB; SD = 5.5) and advanced AMD (18.1 dB; SD = 7.8) eyes were significantly worse than controls (27.8 dB, SD = 4.3) (p < 0.01). Advanced AMD eyes had significantly more unstable fixation (70%; SD = 63.6), larger mean fixation area (3.9 mm2; SD = 3.0), and focal fixation point further away from the fovea (0.7 mm; SD = 0.8), than controls (29%; SD = 43.9; 2.6 mm2; SD = 1.9; 0.4 mm; SD = 0.3) (p ≤ 0.01). Notably, 22 fellow eyes of AMD eyes (25.7 dB; SD = 3.0), with no AMD lesions, still had lower MRS than controls (p = 0.04). For specific AMD-related lesions, end-stage changes such as fibrosis (5.5 dB, SD = 5.4 dB) and atrophy (6.2 dB, SD = 7.0 dB) had the lowest MRS; while drusen and pigment epithelial detachment (17.7 dB, SD = 8.0 dB) had the highest MRS. Peri-lesional areas (20.2 dB, SD = 7.6 dB) and surrounding structurally normal areas (22.2 dB, SD = 6.9 dB) of the retina with no AMD lesions still had lower MRS compared to controls (27.8 dB, SD = 4.3 dB) (p < 0.01). Our detailed topographic structure-function correlation identified specific AMD pathological changes associated with a poorer visual function. This can provide an added value to the assessment of visual function to optimize treatment outcomes to existing and potentially future novel therapies.

Medical education and physician training in the era of artificial intelligence.

ABSTRACT: With the rise of generative artificial intelligence (AI) and AI-powered chatbots, the landscape of medicine and healthcare is on the brink of significant transformation. This perspective delves into the prospective influence of AI on medical education, residency training and the continuing education of attending physicians or consultants. We begin by highlighting the constraints of the current education model, challenges in limited faculty, uniformity amidst burgeoning medical knowledge and the limitations in 'traditional' linear knowledge acquisition. We introduce 'AI-assisted' and 'AI-integrated' paradigms for medical education and physician training, targeting a more universal, accessible, high-quality and interconnected educational journey. We differentiate between essential knowledge for all physicians, specialised insights for clinician-scientists and mastery-level proficiency for clinician-computer scientists. With the transformative potential of AI in healthcare and service delivery, it is poised to reshape the pedagogy of medical education and residency training.

Extending the diabetic retinopathy screening intervals in Singapore: methodology and preliminary findings of a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The Diabetic Retinopathy Extended Screening Study (DRESS) aims to develop and validate a new DR/diabetic macular edema (DME) risk stratification model in patients with Type 2 diabetes (DM) to identify low-risk groups who can be safely assigned to biennial or triennial screening intervals. We describe the study methodology, participants' baseline characteristics, and preliminary DR progression rates at the first annual follow-up. METHODS: DRESS is a 3-year ongoing longitudinal study of patients with T2DM and no or mild non-proliferative DR (NPDR, non-referable) who underwent teleophthalmic screening under the Singapore integrated Diabetic Retinopathy Programme (SiDRP) at four SingHealth Polyclinics. Patients with referable DR/DME (> mild NPDR) or ungradable fundus images were excluded. Sociodemographic, lifestyle, medical and clinical information was obtained from medical records and interviewer-administered questionnaires at baseline. These data are extracted from medical records at 12, 24 and 36 months post-enrollment. Baseline descriptive characteristics stratified by DR severity at baseline and rates of progression to referable DR at 12-month follow-up were calculated. RESULTS: Of 5,840 eligible patients, 78.3% (n = 4,570, median [interquartile range [IQR] age 61.0 [55-67] years; 54.7% male; 68.0% Chinese) completed the baseline assessment. At baseline, 97.4% and 2.6% had none and mild NPDR (worse eye), respectively. Most participants had hypertension (79.2%) and dyslipidemia (92.8%); and almost half were obese (43.4%, BMI ≥ 27.5 kg/m2). Participants without DR (vs mild DR) reported shorter DM duration, and had lower haemoglobin A1c, triglycerides and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (all p < 0.05). To date, we have extracted 41.8% (n = 1909) of the 12-month follow-up data. Of these, 99.7% (n = 1,904) did not progress to referable DR. Those who progressed to referable DR status (0.3%) had no DR at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: In our prospective study of patients with T2DM and non-referable DR attending polyclinics, we found extremely low annual DR progression rates. These preliminary results suggest that extending screening intervals beyond 12 months may be viable and safe for most participants, although our 3-year follow up data are needed to substantiate this claim and develop the risk stratification model to identify low-risk patients with T2DM who can be assigned biennial or triennial screening intervals.

Development and External Validation of Machine Learning Models for Diabetic Microvascular Complications: Cross-Sectional Study With Metabolites.

BACKGROUND: Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) and diabetic retinopathy (DR) are major diabetic microvascular complications, contributing significantly to morbidity, disability, and mortality worldwide. The kidney and the eye, having similar microvascular structures and physiological and pathogenic features, may experience similar metabolic changes in diabetes. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to use machine learning (ML) methods integrated with metabolic data to identify biomarkers associated with DKD and DR in a multiethnic Asian population with diabetes, as well as to improve the performance of DKD and DR detection models beyond traditional risk factors. METHODS: We used ML algorithms (logistic regression [LR] with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator and gradient-boosting decision tree) to analyze 2772 adults with diabetes from the Singapore Epidemiology of Eye Diseases study, a population-based cross-sectional study conducted in Singapore (2004-2011). From 220 circulating metabolites and 19 risk factors, we selected the most important variables associated with DKD (defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2) and DR (defined as an Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study severity level ≥20). DKD and DR detection models were developed based on the variable selection results and externally validated on a sample of 5843 participants with diabetes from the UK biobank (2007-2010). Machine-learned model performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] with 95% CI, sensitivity, and specificity) was compared to that of traditional LR adjusted for age, sex, diabetes duration, hemoglobin A1c, systolic blood pressure, and BMI. RESULTS: Singapore Epidemiology of Eye Diseases participants had a median age of 61.7 (IQR 53.5-69.4) years, with 49.1% (1361/2772) being women, 20.2% (555/2753) having DKD, and 25.4% (685/2693) having DR. UK biobank participants had a median age of 61.0 (IQR 55.0-65.0) years, with 35.8% (2090/5843) being women, 6.7% (374/5570) having DKD, and 6.1% (355/5843) having DR. The ML algorithms identified diabetes duration, insulin usage, age, and tyrosine as the most important factors of both DKD and DR. DKD was additionally associated with cardiovascular disease history, antihypertensive medication use, and 3 metabolites (lactate, citrate, and cholesterol esters to total lipids ratio in intermediate-density lipoprotein), while DR was additionally associated with hemoglobin A1c, blood glucose, pulse pressure, and alanine. Machine-learned models for DKD and DR detection outperformed traditional LR models in both internal (AUC 0.838 vs 0.743 for DKD and 0.790 vs 0.764 for DR) and external validation (AUC 0.791 vs 0.691 for DKD and 0.778 vs 0.760 for DR). CONCLUSIONS: This study highlighted diabetes duration, insulin usage, age, and circulating tyrosine as important factors in detecting DKD and DR. The integration of ML with biomedical big data enables biomarker discovery and improves disease detection beyond traditional risk factors.