Effectiveness of Frequent Viral Load Testing Plus Additional Interventions to Prevent HIV Transmission in Heterosexual, Serodiscordant Couples - Yunnan Province, China, 2019-2021.

What is already known about this topic?: HIV transmission among serodiscordant couples remains a persistent issue in China. However, the practice of combining counseling with antiretroviral therapies (ART) to enhance ART adherence is not widely implemented or recommended in Chinese health guidelines. What is added by this report?: This randomized controlled trial suggests that increased follow-up, counseling, and awareness of HIV risk can enhance ART compliance, thereby maximizing treatment efficacy. What are the implications for public health practice?: Early testing and counseling of serodiscordant couples, following the identification of a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive spouse, is crucial for initiating ART and reducing the risk of seroconversion in the uninfected partner. Implementing a combination of ART and adjunct counseling in China is advisable.

Longitudinal evolution of the HIV effective reproduction number following sequential expansion of treatment as prevention and pre-exposure prophylaxis in British Columbia, Canada: a population-level programme evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Treatment as prevention and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) are key strategies in the control of HIV/AIDS. We aimed to characterise the longitudinal effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART), followed by treatment as prevention and the addition of PrEP, on the HIV effective reproduction number (Re) in British Columbia, Canada. METHODS: This population-level programme evaluation used data from the Drug Treatment Program of the British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS (Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada). We also used estimates of HIV incidence and prevalence from the Public Health Agency of Canada, data on the number of new HIV diagnoses per year from the British Columbia Centre for Disease Control, and mortality data from the British Columbia Vital Statistics Agency. Data were obtained from 1985 until 2022, depending on the database source. Outcomes were the annual HIV prevalence, HIV incidence, number of new HIV diagnoses, number of people living with HIV on ART, HIV/AIDS-related and all-cause mortality rates, the HIV incidence-to-all-cause-mortality ratio, and Re. We calculated the modified effective reproduction number (Rme) using two thresholds of viral suppression and compared these values with Re. FINDINGS: We found a 95% decline in HIV/AIDS-related mortality and a 91% decrease in HIV incidence over the study period. The Re progressively declined from 1996 to 2022; however, from 1996 to 2017, Rme remained stable (>1) when calculated for people living with HIV with unsuppressed viraemia, suggesting that treatment as prevention reduces HIV incidence by decreasing the pool of individuals who are potentially able to transmit the virus. From 2018 to 2022, a decline in the estimated Re and Rme (<1) was observed regardless of whether we considered all people living with HIV or only those who were virologically unsuppressed. This finding suggests that PrEP decreases HIV incidence by reducing the number of susceptible individuals in the community, independently of viral suppression. INTERPRETATION: Our results show the synergy between generalised treatment as prevention and targeted PrEP in terms of decreasing HIV incidence. These findings support the incorporation of longitudinal monitoring of Re at a programmatic level to identify opportunities for the optimisation of treatment-as-prevention and PrEP programmes. FUNDING: British Columbia Ministry of Health, Health Canada, Public Health Agency of Canada, Vancouver Coastal Health, Vancouver General Hospital Foundation, Genome British Columbia, and the Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Corrigendum to "The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on identifying HIV/AIDS cases in China: an interrupted time series study" [The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific 36 (2023) 100755].

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100755.].

Optimizing health resource allocation for improving timely HIV diagnosis in China.

INTRODUCTION: The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) updated the 95-95-95 targets for the HIV endgame in 2030. To achieve the first target in a timely manner, we investigate the optimized strategy of resource allocation to maximize timely HIV diagnosis in 14 populations in China. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model by integrating epidemiological, demographical and behavioural data from 12 high-risk and two general populations to evaluate the impact of various resource allocation strategies of HIV testing on HIV incidence in China. We identified the optimized allocation strategy that maximizes the number of HIV diagnoses at an estimated total spending on HIV tests in China and calculated the per-capita cost of new HIV case detection. RESULTS: We estimated that 144,795 new HIV cases may occur annually in 14 populations in China, with a total annual spending of US$2.8 billion on HIV testing. The largest proportion of spending was allocated to general males (44.0%), followed by general females (42.6%) and pregnant women (5.1%). Despite this allocation strategy, only 45.5% (65,867/144,795, timely diagnosis rate) of annual new infections were diagnosed within a year of acquisition, with a cost of $42,852 required for each new HIV case detection. By optimizing the allocation of HIV testing resources within the same spending amount, we found that general females received the highest proportion of spending allocation (45.1%), followed by low-risk men who have sex with men (13.9%) and pregnant women (8.4%). In contrast, the proportion of spending allocation for the general males decreased to 0.2%. With this optimized strategy, we estimated that 120,755 (83.4%) of annual new infections would be diagnosed within a year of acquisition, with the cost required for one HIV case detection reduced to $23,364/case. Further spending increases could allow for significant increases in HIV testing among lower-risk populations. CONCLUSIONS: Optimizing resource allocation for HIV testing in high-risk populations would improve HIV timely diagnosis rate of new infections and reduce cost per HIV case detection.

Mitochondrial DNA mutations in HIV-exposed uninfected infants following the cessation of triple antiretroviral drugs.

OBJECTIVES: Mitochondrial mutations in HIV-exposed uninfected (HEU) infants after cessation of ART are rarely studied. We analysed a group of HEU newborns born to mothers with late HIV diagnosis who received three doses of ART immediately after birth. We observed mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) mutations at different times of withdrawal. METHODS: The study was based on a clinical trial conducted from 2015 to 2020. Newborns of the intervention group who met the criteria for this study received triple antiretroviral drugs, zidovudine + lamivudine + nevirapine, within 2 h after the birth, as post-partum prophylaxis, and at 14 days were switched to zidovudine + lamivudine + lopinavir/ritonavir, which was continued until 6 weeks of age. From August to November 2019, blood samples from HEU infants were also collected after ceasing 12 months of ART, and analysed for mtDNA. RESULTS: Our study found that mtDNA mutations remained prevalent in HEU infants a few years after three ARTs were stopped immediately after birth. Among them, D-loop, ND1 and CYTB are the first three mutated regions during different withdrawal periods. This pattern of mutations is similar to, but not exactly consistent with, HIV-infected children receiving standard ART. CONCLUSIONS: Further studies are needed to determine the effects of these mutations on the development of HEU infants and whether stopping ART leads to the restoration of mitochondrial function.

Using HIV Risk Self-Assessment Tools to Increase HIV Testing in Men Who Have Sex With Men in Beijing, China: App-Based Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) in China hold a low-risk perception of acquiring HIV. This has resulted in an inadequate HIV testing rate. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate whether administering HIV risk self-assessments with tailored feedback on a gay geosocial networking (GSN) app could improve HIV testing rates and reduce sexual risk behaviors in Chinese MSM. METHODS: We recruited MSM from Beijing, China, who used the GSN platform Blued in October 2017 in this 12-month double-blinded randomized controlled trial. From October 2017 to September 2018, eligible participants were randomly assigned to use a self-reported HIV risk assessment tool that provided tailored feedback according to transmission risk (group 1), access to the same HIV risk assessment without feedback (group 2), or government-recommended HIV education materials (control). All interventions were remotely delivered through the mobile phone-based app Blued, and participants were followed up at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months from baseline. The number of HIV tests over the 12-month study was the primary outcome and was assessed using an intention-to-treat analysis with an incident rate ratio (IRR). Unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) over 6 months was assessed by a modified intention-to-treat analysis and was the secondary outcome. All statistical analyses were conducted in SAS 9.3 (SAS Institute, Inc.), and a P value <.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: In total, 9280 MSM were recruited from baseline and were randomly assigned to group 1 (n=3028), group 2 (n=3065), or controls (n=3187). After follow-up, 1034 (34.1%), 993 (32.4%), and 1103 (34.6%) remained in each group, respectively. Over 12 months, group 1 took 391 tests (mean of 2.51 tests per person), group 2 took 352 tests (mean of 2.01 tests per person), and controls took 295 tests (mean of 1.72 tests per person). Group 1 had significantly more HIV testing than the control group (IRR 1.32, 95% CI 1.09-4.58; P=.01), while group 2 did not differ significantly from the controls (IRR 1.06, 95% CI 0.86-1.30; P=.60). The proportion of UAI was not statistically different among different groups, but all 3 groups had UAI, which declined from baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Repeated HIV risk assessments coupled with tailored feedback through GSN apps improved HIV testing. Such interventions should be considered a simple way of improving HIV testing among MSM in China and increasing awareness of HIV status. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03320239; https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03320239.

The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on identifying HIV/AIDS cases in China: an interrupted time series study.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant global public health challenges, and impacted HIV testing and reporting worldwide. We aimed to estimate the impact of COVID-19 polices on identifying HIV/AIDS cases in China from 2020 to 2022. Methods: We used an interrupted time series (ITS) design and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average intervention (SARIMA Intervention) model. Monthly reported data on HIV/AIDS cases were extracted from the National Bureau of Disease Control and Prevention of China from January 2004 to August 2022. Data on Stringency Index (SI) and Economic Support Index (ESI) from January 22, 2020 to August 31, 2022 were extracted from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT). Using these, a SARIMA-Intervention model was constructed to evaluate the association between COVID-19 polices and monthly reported HIV/AIDS case numbers from January 2004 to August 2022 using auto.arima () function from R. The absolute percentage errors (APEs) compared the expected numbers generated by the SARIMA-Intervention model with actual numbers of HIV/AIDS, and was the primary outcome of this study. A second counterfactual model estimated HIV/AIDS case numbers if COVID-19 hadn't occurred in December 2019, and the mean difference between actual and predicted numbers were calculated. All statistical analyses were performed in R software (version 4.2.1) and EmpowerStats 2.0 and a P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Findings: The SARIMA-Intervention model indicated HIV/AIDS monthly reported cases were inversely and significantly correlated with stricter lockdown and COVID-19 related polices (Coefficient for SI = -231.24, 95% CI: -383.17, -79.32) but not with economic support polices (Coefficient for ESI = 124.27, 95% CI: -309.84, 558.38). APEs of the SARIMA-Intervention model for prediction of HIV/AIDS cases from January 2022 through August 2022, were -2.99, 5.08, -13.64, -34.04, -2.76, -1.52, -1.37 and -2.47 respectively, indicating good accuracy and underreporting of cases during COVID-19. The counterfactual model estimates between January 2020 and August 2022 an additional 1314 HIV/AIDS cases should have been established monthly if COVID-19 hadn't occurred. Interpretation: The COVID-19 pandemic influenced the allocation and acquisition of medical resources which impacted accurate monthly reporting of HIV in China. Interventions that promote continuous HIV testing and ensure the adequate provision of HIV services including remote delivery of HIV testing services (HIV self-testing) and online sexual counseling services are necessary during pandemics in future. Funding: Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China (The grant number: 2020YFC0846300) and Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, USA (The grant number: G11TW010941).

Comparison of healthspan-related indicators between adults with and without HIV infection aged 18-59 in the United States: a secondary analysis of NAHNES 1999-March 2020.

BACKGROUND: As persons with HIV (PWH) live longer they may experience a heightened burden of poor health. However, few studies have characterized the multi-dimentional health of PWH. Thus, we aimed to identify the extent and pattern of health disparities, both within HIV infection status and across age (or sex) specific groups. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999-March 2020. The adjusted prevalence of six healthspan-related indicators-physical frailty, activities of daily living (ADL) disability, mobility disability, depression, multimorbidity, and all-cause death-was evaluated. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to investigate associations between HIV status and healthspan-related indicators, with adjustment for individual-level demographic characteristics and risk behaviors. RESULTS: The analytic sample consisted of 33 200 adults (170 (0.51%) were PWH) aged 18-59 years in the United States. The mean (interquartile range) age was 35.1 (25.0-44.0) years, and 49.4% were male. PWH had higher adjusted prevalences for all of the 6 healthspan-related indicators, as compared to those without HIV, ranged from 17.4% (95% CI: 17.4%, 17.5%) vs. 2.7% (95%CI: 2.7%, 2.7%) for all-cause mortality, to 84.3% (95% CI: 84.0%, 84.5%) vs. 69.8% (95%CI: 69.7%, 69.8%) for mobility disability. While the prevalence difference was largest in ADL disability (23.4% (95% CI: 23.2%, 23.7%); P < 0.001), and least in multimorbidity (6.9% (95% CI: 6.8%, 7.0%); P < 0.001). Generally, the differences in prevalence by HIV status were greater in 50-59 years group than those in 18-29 group. Males with HIV suffered higher prevalence of depression and multimorbidity, while females with HIV were more vulnerable to functional limitation and disabilities. HIV infection was associated with higher odds for 3 of the 6 healthspan-related indicators after fully adjusted, such as physical frailty and depression. Sensitivity analyses did not change the health differences between adults with and without HIV infection. CONCLUSIONS: In a large sample of U.S. community-dwelling adults, by identifying the extent and pattern of health disparities, we characterized the multi-dimentional health of PWHs, providing important public health implications for public policy that aims to improve health of persons with HIV and further reduce these disparities.

Association of low-level viremia with mortality among people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Dehong, Southwest China: A retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the association of low-level viremia (LLV) with mortality among people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Dehong, Southwest China. METHODS: We analysed data collected from a cohort of PLHIV on ART in Dehong. PLHIV were enrolled in this cohort after they started ART, with viral load (VL) tested once a year afterwards. Each VL level was then categorized into one of the four groups: <50, 50-199, 200-999 and ≥1000 copies/ml. VL levels of 50-199 and 200-999 copies/ml were defined as LLV. The VL level for each participant was re-categorized and fitted into an extended Cox regression model as a time-varying covariate to examine the associations of VL level with all-cause and AIDS-related deaths. RESULTS: Among the included 7273 of 8762 PLHIV in this study, median age (interquartile range, IQR) was 36 (30-43) years and 59.9% were male. The patients were followed up for a median duration (IQR) of 6.2 (4.3-8.2) years. Compared with VL <50 copies/ml, LLV 200-999 copies/ml (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] and 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.56 [1.04, 2.32]) were associated with elevated risk of all-cause mortality and LLV50-199 (aHR [95% CI]: 1.00 [0.68, 1.45]) were not. Similarly, only LLV200-999 copies/ml (aHR [95% CI]: 2.37 [1.36, 4.14]) corresponded to higher risk of AIDS-related mortality. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that PLHIV on ART may have elevated death risks even though the viremia is suppressed at a low level. Interventions targeting PLHIV with LLV should be developed to reduce their mortality.

Providing HIV testing in men who have sex with men through a gay social networking app in China: A qualitative interview study with multisectoral service providers.

Objective: We explored the feasibility of app-based HIV testing services (AHTS) among men who have sex with men (MSM) according to the perspectives of testing service providers. Methods: Twenty-one current or previous AHTS providers participated in a semi-structured interview which explored the facilitators and barriers to AHTS. Ten participants originating from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and 11 from the non-governmental organization (NGO) in Shijiazhuang, China took part in this study. Interviews was transcribed verbatim, and the socioecological model (SEM) was applied to thematic analysis. Results: Twenty-one participants from AHTS services commented on the integration of online appointment schedules into HIV testing services. AHTS was deemed a convenient and efficient method for MSM and service providers to choose their preferred location and times. Moreover, it allowed for important HIV-related information to be accessed online and targeted toward at-risk individuals. Participants thought MSM may feel unsure about personal information security being stored within a privatized app and was considered a barrier to AHTS's usability. As such, they believed establishing a government-led national online platform for AHTS would allow for greater trust from MSM, rather than a social media app. Conclusion: By linking booking services to an online platform, AHTS was deemed a convenient and efficient method for HIV testing services, especially for young MSM who are familiar with smartphone applications. To improve the use of these services, AHTS apps should focus on ensuring the confidentiality of personal information and internet security to build trust between MSM and service providers.

[Cost-effectiveness prediction of AIDS interventions among men who have sex with men in Ningbo].

Objective: To provide information reference for resource allocation and decision-making in related fields, the cost-effectiveness of HIV input among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Ningbo. Different intervention coverages were compared. Methods: Taking MSM as the target population, data were collected and modeled by Optima HIV for the corresponding HIV health output and the budget under different intervention coverages. Results: According to the estimated size of the MSM population, which was 19 584 in Ningbo in 2020, if the coverage of 2020 baseline intervention is maintained in the next ten years, the number of HIV cases, new HIV infections, and HIV-related deaths among this population will show an upward trend. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2030, 7.9% of new infections and 1.7% of deaths can be avoided and the relevant funding investment comed to 2.4 time the baseline if the intervention coverage rate expanded to 3.0 times the 2020 baseline. After the coverage rate of intervention expanded to 3 times the baseline, it continued to grow, the health effect did not increase. Conclusions: At present, expanding the baseline coverage of HIV-related intervention projects among MSM in Ningbo and increasing capital investment will still reverse HIV-related death and reduce new infections. Moreover, there is a saturation point of the intervention effect. Researchers and policymakers must explore more effective interventions/combinations to obtain more significant health outcomes.

[Application of limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay for estimating HIV-1 incidence in men who have sex with men].

Objective: To estimate the incidence of HIV-1 infection in men who have sex with men (MSM) in key areas of China through HIV-1 limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay (LAg-Avidity EIA), analyze the deviation from the actual results and identify influencing factors, and provided reference for improving the accuracy of estimation results. Methods: Based on the principle of the cohort randomized study design, 20 cities were selected in China based on population size and the number of HIV-positive MSM. The sample size was estimated to be 700 according to the HIV-1 infection rate in MSM. MSM mobile phone app. was used to establish a detection appointment and questionnaire system, and the baseline cross-sectional survey was conducted from April to November 2019. LAg-Avidity EIA was used to identify the recent infected samples. The incidence of HIV-1 infection was calculated and then adjusted based on the estimation formula designed by WHO. The influencing factors were identified by analyzing the sample collection and detection processes. Results: Among the 10 650 blood samples from the participants, 799 were HIV-positive in initial screening, in which 198 samples (24.78%) missed during confirmation test. Only 621 samples were received by the laboratory. After excluding misreported samples, 520 samples were qualified for testing. A total of 155 samples were eventually determined as recent infection through LAg-Avidity EIA; Based on the estimation formula , the incidence of HIV-1 infection in MSM in 20 cities was 4.06% (95%CI:3.27%-4.85%), it increased to 5.53% (95%CI: 4.45%-6.60%)after the adjusting for sample missing rate. When the sample missing rate and misreporting rate were both adjusted, the incidence of HIV-1 infection in the MSM increased to 5.66% (95%CI:4.67%-6.65%). The actual incidence of HIV-1 infection in MSM in the 20 cities might be between 4.06% and 5.66%. Conclusions: Sample missing and misreporting might cause the deviation of the estimation of HIV-1 infection incidence. It is important to ensure the sample source and the quality of sample collection and detection to reduce the deviation in the estimation of HIV-1 infection incidence.

Epidemiological trends of severely immunosuppressed people living with HIV at time of starting antiretroviral treatment in China during 2005-2018.

OBJECTIVES: High HIV-related mortality is mainly associated with severe immunosuppression (CD4 count < 50 cells/µL) in people living with HIV (PLWH). This study intended to explore the trends in epidemic and early mortality among PLWH with severe immunosuppression for further targeted intervention. METHODS: We extracted the data of treatment-naïve PLWH with severe immunosuppression from China's National Free Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) Program database. Early mortality (within 6 or 12 months after initiating ART) and spatial, temporal, and population distribution were analyzed during 2005-2018. RESULTS: Of 748,066 treatment-naïve PLWH, 105,785 (14.1%) were severely immunosuppressed PLWH aged more than 15-year-old. The proportion of severely immunosuppressed PLWH peaked at 31.4% and then decreased with time, leveling off at approximately 11-12% from 2015 onward. Early mortality rates of these PLWH declined significantly (from 17.0% to 8.1% after 6 months of initiating ART; 20.4% to 10.6% after 12 months; both p values < 0.01) from 2005-2007 to 2016-2018. In the South-central and Southwest, the number of these PLWH was larger than that in the other regions during 2005-2018, and it increased to 4780 (37.1%) and 3370 (26.2%) in 2018. The proportion of PLWH aged 30-44 years among all treatment-naïve severely immunosuppressed PLWH in each region was higher than that of other age groups during 2005-2018. After the proportion decreased during 2005-2007, the proportion of PLWH aged 45-59 years in Southwest and South-central were increased steadily from 11% (69/626) and 16.7% (358/2140) in 2007 to 33.8% (1138/3370) and 34.0% (1626/4780) in 2018, respectively; the proportion of PLWH aged ≥60 years showed an increasing trend during 2005-2018; while changes in the proportion of those age groups were less pronounced in North and Northeast. The proportion of PLWH infected by heterosexual contact was high at 83% (2798/3370) in Southwest, and 75.1% (3588/4780) in South-central in 2018; conversely, proportion of PLWH infected by homosexual contacts was largest in North (57.8% [500/865]) and Northeast (59.9% [561/936]). CONCLUSIONS: The persistent burden of treatment-naïve PLWH with severe immunosuppression remains challenging. Our results provide evidence for policy-makers to allocate resources and establish targeting strategies to identify early infection of PLWH.

Risk Factors for Death Among the First 80 543 Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Cases in China: Relationships Between Age, Underlying Disease, Case Severity, and Region.

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of COVID-19 epidemiology remains incomplete and crucial questions persist. We aimed to examine risk factors for COVID-19 death. METHODS: A total of 80 543 COVID-19 cases reported in China, nationwide, through 8 April 2020 were included. Risk factors for death were investigated by Cox proportional hazards regression and stratified analyses. RESULTS: Overall national case-fatality ratio (CFR) was 5.64%. Risk factors for death were older age (≥80: adjusted hazard ratio, 12.58; 95% confidence interval, 6.78-23.33), presence of underlying disease (1.33; 1.19-1.49), worse case severity (severe: 3.86; 3.15-4.73; critical: 11.34; 9.22-13.95), and near-epicenter region (Hubei: 2.64; 2.11-3.30; Wuhan: 6.35; 5.04-8.00). CFR increased from 0.35% (30-39 years) to 18.21% (≥70 years) without underlying disease. Regardless of age, CFR increased from 2.50% for no underlying disease to 7.72% for 1, 13.99% for 2, and 21.99% for ≥3 underlying diseases. CFR increased with worse case severity from 2.80% (mild) to 12.51% (severe) and 48.60% (critical), regardless of region. Compared with other regions, CFR was much higher in Wuhan regardless of case severity (mild: 3.83% vs 0.14% in Hubei and 0.03% elsewhere; moderate: 4.60% vs 0.21% and 0.06%; severe: 15.92% vs 5.84% and 1.86%; and critical: 58.57% vs 49.80% and 18.39%). CONCLUSIONS: Older patients regardless of underlying disease and patients with underlying disease regardless of age were at elevated risk of death. Higher death rates near the outbreak epicenter and during the surge of cases reflect the deleterious effects of allowing health systems to become overwhelmed.

Guidance for Health Care Leaders During the Recovery Stage of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Consensus Statement.

Importance: The COVID-19 pandemic is the greatest global test of health leadership of our generation. There is an urgent need to provide guidance for leaders at all levels during the unprecedented preresolution recovery stage. Objective: To create an evidence- and expertise-informed framework of leadership imperatives to serve as a resource to guide health and public health leaders during the postemergency stage of the pandemic. Evidence Review: A literature search in PubMed, MEDLINE, and Embase revealed 10 910 articles published between 2000 and 2021 that included the terms leadership and variations of emergency, crisis, disaster, pandemic, COVID-19, or public health. Using the Standards for Quality Improvement Reporting Excellence reporting guideline for consensus statement development, this assessment adopted a 6-round modified Delphi approach involving 32 expert coauthors from 17 countries who participated in creating and validating a framework outlining essential leadership imperatives. Findings: The 10 imperatives in the framework are: (1) acknowledge staff and celebrate successes; (2) provide support for staff well-being; (3) develop a clear understanding of the current local and global context, along with informed projections; (4) prepare for future emergencies (personnel, resources, protocols, contingency plans, coalitions, and training); (5) reassess priorities explicitly and regularly and provide purpose, meaning, and direction; (6) maximize team, organizational, and system performance and discuss enhancements; (7) manage the backlog of paused services and consider improvements while avoiding burnout and moral distress; (8) sustain learning, innovations, and collaborations, and imagine future possibilities; (9) provide regular communication and engender trust; and (10) in consultation with public health and fellow leaders, provide safety information and recommendations to government, other organizations, staff, and the community to improve equitable and integrated care and emergency preparedness systemwide. Conclusions and Relevance: Leaders who most effectively implement these imperatives are ideally positioned to address urgent needs and inequalities in health systems and to cocreate with their organizations a future that best serves stakeholders and communities.

Coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in Beijing's Xinfadi Market, China: a modeling study to inform future resurgence response.

BACKGROUND: A local coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case confirmed on June 11, 2020 triggered an outbreak in Beijing, China after 56 consecutive days without a newly confirmed case. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were used to contain the source in Xinfadi (XFD) market. To rapidly control the outbreak, both traditional and newly introduced NPIs including large-scale management of high-risk populations and expanded severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) PCR-based screening in the general population were conducted in Beijing. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of the response to the COVID-19 outbreak in Beijing's XFD market and inform future response efforts of resurgence across regions. METHODS: A modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model was developed and applied to evaluate a range of different scenarios from the public health perspective. Two outcomes were measured: magnitude of transmission (i.e., number of cases in the outbreak) and endpoint of transmission (i.e., date of containment). The outcomes of scenario evaluations were presented relative to the reality case (i.e., 368 cases in 34 days) with 95% Confidence Interval (CI). RESULTS: Our results indicated that a 3 to 14 day delay in the identification of XFD as the infection source and initiation of NPIs would have caused a 3 to 28-fold increase in total case number (31-77 day delay in containment). A failure to implement the quarantine scheme employed in the XFD outbreak for defined key population would have caused a fivefold greater number of cases (73 day delay in containment). Similarly, failure to implement the quarantine plan executed in the XFD outbreak for close contacts would have caused twofold greater transmission (44 day delay in containment). Finally, failure to implement expanded nucleic acid screening in the general population would have yielded 1.6-fold greater transmission and a 32 day delay to containment. CONCLUSIONS: This study informs new evidence that in form the selection of NPI to use as countermeasures in response to a COVID-19 outbreak and optimal timing of their implementation. The evidence provided by this study should inform responses to future outbreaks of COVID-19 and future infectious disease outbreak preparedness efforts in China and elsewhere.

Can the combination of TasP and PrEP eliminate HIV among MSM in British Columbia, Canada?

INTRODUCTION: In British Columbia (BC), the HIV epidemic continues to disproportionally affect the gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (MSM). In this study, we aimed to evaluate how Treatment as Prevention (TasP) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), if used in combination, could lead to HIV elimination in BC among MSM. METHODS: Considering the heterogeneity in HIV transmission risk, we developed a compartmental model stratified by age and risk-taking behaviour for the HIV epidemic among MSM in BC, informed by clinical, behavioural and epidemiological data. Key outcome measures included the World Health Organization (WHO) threshold for disease elimination as a public health concern and the effective reproduction number (Re). Model interventions focused on the optimization of different TasP and PrEP components. Sensitivity analysis was done to evaluate the impact of sexual mixing patterns, PrEP effectiveness and increasing risk-taking behaviour. RESULTS: The incidence rate was estimated to be 1.2 (0.9-1.9) per 1000 susceptible MSM under the Status Quo scenario by the end of 2029. Optimizing all aspects of TasP and the simultaneous provision of PrEP to high-risk MSM resulted in an HIV incidence rate as low as 0.4 (0.3-0.6) per 1000 susceptible MSM, and an Re as low as 0.7 (0.6-0.9), indicating that disease elimination was possible when TasP and PrEP were combined. Provision of PrEP to younger MSM or high-risk and younger MSM resulted in a similar HIV incidence rate, but an Re with credible intervals that crossed one. CONCLUSION: Further optimizing all aspects of TasP and prioritizing PrEP to high-risk MSM can achieve the goal of disease elimination in BC. These results should inform public health policy development and intervention programs that address the HIV epidemic in BC and in other similar settings where MSM are disproportionately affected.

Association between medical male circumcision and HIV risk compensation among heterosexual men: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Medical male circumcision (MMC) reduces HIV infection among heterosexual men. There are concerns MMC might prompt higher-risk sexual behaviours because of lower self-perceived risk of HIV infection. We reviewed the published literature to examine associations between MMC and both condom use and number of sex partners among heterosexual men. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library for studies published before Nov 15, 2020. Interventional and observational studies were included if they contained original quantitative data describing the association between MMC and condom use or number of sex partners among heterosexual men. We excluded data from men whose circumcisions were ritual or religious and data from men who have sex with men. We extracted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for the associations between MMC and condomless sex and MMC and multiple sex partners directly from the publications if available, selecting adjusted ORs when provided; when necessary, we calculated ORs and 95% CIs using original study data provided in the publication. We used the Mantel-Haenszel random effects model to calculate pooled ORs and 95% CIs. FINDINGS: Our search yielded 3035 results, of which 471 were duplicates and 2537 did not meet the inclusion criteria. From the remaining 27 eligible studies, we identified 99 292 men from 31 independent population samples. 24 studies were done in Africa. We found no statistically significant associations between MMC and condomless sex (OR 0·91, 95% CI 0·80-1·05; k=30; I2=88·7%) or multiple sex partners (1·02, 0·88-1·18; k=27; I2=90·1%). No associations between MMC and condomless sex or multiple sexual partners were found in any subgroup analyses by study design, income of country, age, recruitment setting, circumcision assessment, circumcision prevalence, and risk of publication bias. INTERPRETATION: The promotion of circumcision as an HIV preventive measure does not appear to increase higher-risk sexual behaviours in heterosexual men. Ongoing sexual health education should be maintained as a vital component of effective MMC programmes. FUNDING: National Science and Technology Major Project of China, the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, and the Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Commission Basic Research Program.