Projection of Premature Cancer Mortality in Hunan, China, Through 2030: Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals for 2030 include reducing premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases by one-third. Although previous modeling studies have predicted premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases, the predictions for cancer and its subcategories are less well understood in China. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to project premature cancer mortality of 10 leading cancers in Hunan Province, China, based on various scenarios of risk factor control so as to establish the priority for future interventions. METHODS: We used data collected between 2009 and 2017 from the Hunan cancer registry annual report as empirical data for projections. The population-attributable fraction was used to disaggregate cancer deaths into parts attributable and unattributable to 10 risk factors: smoking, alcohol use, high BMI, diabetes, physical inactivity, low vegetable and fruit intake, high red meat intake, high salt intake, and high ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels. The unattributable deaths and the risk factors in the baseline scenario were projected using the proportional change model, assuming constant annual change rates through 2030. The comparative risk assessment theory was used in simulated scenarios to reflect how premature mortality would be affected if the targets for risk factor control were achieved by 2030. RESULTS: The cancer burden in Hunan significantly increased during 2009-2017. If current trends for each risk factor continued to 2030, the total premature deaths from cancers in 2030 would increase to 97,787 in Hunan Province, and the premature mortality (9.74%) would be 44.47% higher than that in 2013 (6.74%). In the combined scenario where all risk factor control targets were achieved, 14.41% of premature cancer mortality among those aged 30-70 years would be avoided compared with the business-as-usual scenario in 2030. Reductions in the prevalence of diabetes, high BMI, ambient PM2.5 levels, and insufficient fruit intake played relatively important roles in decreasing cancer premature mortality. However, the one-third reduction goal would not be achieved for most cancers except gastric cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Existing targets on cancer-related risk factors may have important roles in cancer prevention and control. However, they are not sufficient to achieve the one-third reduction goal in premature cancer mortality in Hunan Province. More aggressive risk control targets should be adopted based on local conditions.

One-off low-dose CT screening of positive nodules in lung cancer: A prospective community-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: To improve the early stage diagnosis and reduce the lung cancer (LC) mortality for positive nodule (PN) population, data on effectiveness of PN detection using one-off low-dose spiral computed tomography (LDCT) screening are needed to improve the PN management protocol. We evaluate the effectiveness of PN detection and developed a nomogram to predict LC risk for PNs. METHODS: A prospective, community-based cohort study was conducted. We recruited 292,531 eligible candidates during 2012-2018. Individuals at high risk of LC based on risk assessment underwent LDCT screening and were divided into PN and non-PN groups. The effectiveness of PN detection was evaluated in LC incidence, mortality, and all-cause mortality. We performed subgroup analysis of characteristic variables for the association between PN and LC risk. A competing risk model was used to develop the nomogram. RESULTS: Participants (n = 14901) underwent LDCT screening; PNs were detected in 1193 cases (8·0%). After a median follow-up of 6·1 years, 193 were diagnosed with LC (1·3%). Of these, 94 were in the PN group (8·0%). LC incidence, mortality, and all-cause mortality were significantly higher in the PN group (adjusted hazard ratios: 10.60 (7.91-14.20), 7.97 (5.20-12.20), and 1.94 (1.51-2.50), respectively). Additionally, various PN characteristics were associated with an increased probability of developing LC. The C-index value of the nomogram for predicting LC risk of PN individuals was 0·847. CONCLUSIONS: The protocol of PNs management for improvement could focus on specific characteristic population and high-risk PN individuals by nomogram assessment.

Development and validation of tumor-size-stratified prognostic nomograms for patients with uterine sarcoma: A SEER database analysis.

BACKGROUND: Tumor-size-stratified analysis on the prognosis of uterine sarcoma is insufficient. This study aimed to establish the tumor-size-stratified nomograms to predict the 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) of patients with uterine sarcoma. METHODS: The data analyzed in this study were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We collected data from patients with uterine sarcoma diagnosed between 2004 and 2015. According to the median tumor size of 7.8 cm, the enrolled patients were divided into two tumor size (TS) groups: TS <7.8 cm and TS ≥7.8 cm. Patients in each group were randomly divided into the training and validation cohorts with a ratio of 7:3. Chi-square test was used to compare differences between categorical variables. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to identify significant predictors. We calculated the concordance index (C-index) and the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) to validate the nomograms. RESULTS: Compared with TS <7.8 cm group, TS ≥7.8 cm group had more patients of 45-64 years group, higher black race prevalence, higher proportion of myometrium tumor, higher stage, and higher grade; In the TS <7.8 cm training cohort, six variables (age, race, marital status, tumor primary site, stage, and grade) were identified as significantly associated with OS in multivariate analysis. However in the TS ≥7.8 cm training cohort, only four variables (surgery on primary site, tumor size, stage, and grade) were significantly identified; The C-index of two nomograms were 0.80 and 0.73 in training cohorts, respectively, and the AUC values for 3- and 5-year OS predictions in training cohorts were all above 0.80. Similar results were observed in validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that the significant prognostic factors were different between two tumor size groups of uterine sarcoma patients. The tumor-size-stratified nomograms, which we constructed and validated, might be useful to predict the probability of survival for patients with uterine sarcoma.

Development and external validation of a nomogram to predict the risk of Upper gastrointestinal precancerous lesions in a non-high-incidence area.

BACKGROUND: Upper gastrointestinal precancerous lesions (UGPL) is the major preventable disease in non-high-incidence area. A prognostic nomogram was constructed to predict and identity susceptible population of UGPL before endoscope screening. METHODS: We recruited 300 ,016 eligible participants for upper gastrointestinal cancer (UGC) screening aged 40-74 years from two cities in Hunan province from 2012 to 2019. Individuals at high risk of UGC on basis of questionnaire estimation underwent endoscopic screening. Participants in two cities accepting endoscopy were used as training and external validation cohorts, respectively. A nomogram was developed based on independent prognostic factors of UGPL determined in multivariable logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 35, 621 with high risk for UGC, 10, 364 subjects undertook endoscopy (participation rate of 29.1%). The detection rate for UGPL was 4.55%. The nomogram showed that age, gender, mental trama, picked food, and atrophic gastritis history in a descending order were significant contributors to UGPL risk. The C-index value of internal and external validation of the model is 0.612 and 0.670, respectively. The calibration data for UGPL showed optimal agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation. Furthermore, high-risk and low-risk group divided based on score from the nomogram predicted a significantly distinct detection rate. CONCLUSION: The nomogram provides screening workers a simple and accurate tool for identifying individuals at a higher risk of UGPL as primary screening before endoscopy among Chinese population in non-high-risk areas, thus reducing the incidence of UGC by improving the UGPL detection.

Community-Based Upper Gastrointestinal Cancer Screening in a Randomized Controlled Trial: Baseline Results in a Non-high-incidence Area.

A cluster-randomized controlled trial (RCT) was conducted to evaluate to the effectiveness of reducing mortality of upper gastrointestinal cancer (UGC) and feasibility of screening through a questionnaire combined with endoscopy in non-high-incidence urban areas in China. The trial design, recruitment performance, and preliminary results from baseline endoscopy are reported. Seventy-five communities in two urban cities with a non-high-incidence of UGC were randomized to a screening endoscopy arm (n = 38) or a control arm (n = 37). In the screening arm, individuals at high risk of UGC underwent endoscopic screening. The primary outcome was the UGC mortality, and secondary outcomes included the UGC detection rate, incidence rate, survival rate, and clinical stage at the time of diagnosis. A total of 10,416 and 9,565 individuals were recruited into the screening and control arms, respectively. The participation rate was 74.3%. In the screening arm, 5,242 individuals (50.3%) were estimated to be high-risk. Among them, 2,388 (45.6%) underwent endoscopic screening. Age and household income were associated with undergoing endoscopy. Three early esophageal cancer (0.13%), one gastric cancer (0.04%), 29 precancerous esophageal lesions (1.21%), and 53 precancerous gastric lesions (2.22%) were detected. Age, sex, a family history of cancer, intake of meat-egg-milk frequently, superficial gastritis, and clinical symptoms of gastric cancer were associated with the presence of precancerous lesions. The detection rate was low using endoscopic screening in non-high-incidence area given the relatively low compliance rate. These findings provide a reference for designing effective community-based UGC screening strategies in non-high-incidence urban areas.