Wastewater-based surveillance of SARS-CoV-2: Short-term projection (forecasting), smoothing and outlier identification using Bayesian smoothing.

BACKGROUND: Day-to-day variation in the measurement of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater can challenge public health interpretation. We assessed a Bayesian smoothing and forecasting method previously used for surveillance and short-term projection of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. METHODS: SARS-CoV-2 viral measurement from the sewershed in Ottawa, Canada, sampled at the municipal wastewater treatment plant from July 1, 2020, to February 15, 2022, was used to assess and internally validate measurement averaging and prediction. External validation was performed using viral measurement data from influent wastewater samples from 15 wastewater treatment plants and municipalities across Ontario. RESULTS: Plots of SARS-CoV-2 viral measurement over time using Bayesian smoothing visually represented distinct COVID-19 "waves" described by case and hospitalization data in both initial (Ottawa) and external validation in 15 Ontario communities. The time-varying growth rate of viral measurement in wastewater samples approximated the growth rate observed for cases and hospitalization. One-week predicted viral measurement approximated the observed viral measurement throughout the assessment period from December 23, 2020, to August 8, 2022. An uncalibrated model showed underprediction during rapid increases in viral measurement (positive growth) and overprediction during rapid decreases. After recalibration, the model showed a close approximation between observed and predicted estimates. CONCLUSION: Bayesian smoothing of wastewater surveillance data of SARS-CoV-2 allows for accurate estimates of COVID-19 growth rates and one- and two-week forecasting of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater for 16 municipalities in Ontario, Canada. Further assessment is warranted in other communities representing different sewersheds and environmental conditions.

Digital microfluidics with distance-based detection - a new approach for nucleic acid diagnostics.

There is great enthusiasm for using loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) in point-of-care nucleic acid amplification tests (POC NAATs), as an alternative to PCR. While isothermal amplification techniques like LAMP eliminate the need for rapid temperature cycling in a portable format, these systems are still plagued by requirements for dedicated optical detection apparatus for analysis and manual off-chip sample processing. Here, we developed a new microfluidic system for LAMP-based POC NAATs to address these limitations. The new system combines digital microfluidics (DMF) with distance-based detection (DBD) for direct signal readout. This is the first report of the use of (i) LAMP or (ii) DMF with DBD - thus, we describe a number of characterization steps taken to determine optimal combinations of reagents, materials, and processes for reliable operation. For example, DBD was found to be quite sensitive to background signals from low molecular weight LAMP products; thus, a Capto™ adhere bead-based clean-up procedure was developed to isolate the desirable high-molecular-weight products for analysis. The new method was validated by application to detection of SARS-CoV-2 in saliva. The method was able to distinguish between saliva containing no virus, saliva containing a low viral load (104 genome copies per mL), and saliva containing a high viral load (108 copies per mL), all in an automated system that does not require detection apparatus for analysis. We propose that the combination of DMF with distance-based detection may be a powerful one for implementing a variety of POC NAATs or for other applications in the future.

An improved method for determining frequency of multiple variants of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater using qPCR assays.

Wastewater-based surveillance has become an effective tool around the globe for indirect monitoring of COVID-19 in communities. Variants of Concern (VOCs) have been detected in wastewater by use of reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) or whole genome sequencing (WGS). Rapid, reliable RT-PCR assays continue to be needed to determine the relative frequencies of VOCs and sub-lineages in wastewater-based surveillance programs. The presence of multiple mutations in a single region of the N-gene allowed for the design of a single amplicon, multiple probe assay, that can distinguish among several VOCs in wastewater RNA extracts. This approach which multiplexes probes designed to target mutations associated with specific VOC's along with an intra-amplicon universal probe (non-mutated region) was validated in singleplex and multiplex. The prevalence of each mutation (i.e. VOC) is estimated by comparing the abundance of the targeted mutation with a non-mutated and highly conserved region within the same amplicon. This is advantageous for the accurate and rapid estimation of variant frequencies in wastewater. The N200 assay was applied to monitor frequencies of VOCs in wastewater extracts from several communities in Ontario, Canada in near real time from November 28, 2021 to January 4, 2022. This includes the period of the rapid replacement of the Delta variant with the introduction of the Omicron variant in these Ontario communities in early December 2021. The frequency estimates using this assay were highly reflective of clinical WGS estimates for the same communities. This style of qPCR assay, which simultaneously measures signal from a non-mutated comparator probe and multiple mutation-specific probes contained within a single qPCR amplicon, can be applied to future assay development for rapid and accurate estimations of variant frequencies.