North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply.

Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change1-3. Although inter-model agreement is high for large-scale temperature signals, dynamical changes in atmospheric circulation are very uncertain4. This leads to low confidence in regional projections, especially for precipitation, over the coming decades5,6. The chaotic nature of the climate system7-9 may also mean that signal uncertainties are largely irreducible. However, climate projections are difficult to verify until further observations become available. Here we assess retrospective climate model predictions of the past six decades and show that decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate are highly predictable, despite a lack of agreement between individual model simulations and the poor predictive ability of raw model outputs. Crucially, current models underestimate the predictable signal (the predictable fraction of the total variability) of the North Atlantic Oscillation (the leading mode of variability in North Atlantic atmospheric circulation) by an order of magnitude. Consequently, compared to perfect models, 100 times as many ensemble members are needed in current models to extract this signal, and its effects on the climate are underestimated relative to other factors. To address these limitations, we implement a two-stage post-processing technique. We first adjust the variance of the ensemble-mean North Atlantic Oscillation forecast to match the observed variance of the predictable signal. We then select and use only the ensemble members with a North Atlantic Oscillation sufficiently close to the variance-adjusted ensemble-mean forecast North Atlantic Oscillation. This approach greatly improves decadal predictions of winter climate for Europe and eastern North America. Predictions of Atlantic multidecadal variability are also improved, suggesting that the North Atlantic Oscillation is not driven solely by Atlantic multidecadal variability. Our results highlight the need to understand why the signal-to-noise ratio is too small in current climate models10, and the extent to which correcting this model error would reduce uncertainties in regional climate change projections on timescales beyond a decade.

The Future of Neurocritical Care Research: Proceedings and Recommendations from the Fifth Neurocritical Care Research Network Conference.

The Fifth Neurocritical Care Research Network (NCRN) Conference held in Boca Raton, Florida, in September of 2018 was devoted to challenging the current status quo and examining the role of the Neurocritical Care Society (NCS) in driving the science and research of neurocritical care. The aim of this in-person meeting was to set the agenda for the NCS's Neurocritical Care Research Central, which is the overall research arm of the society. Prior to the meeting, all 103 participants received educational content (book and seminar) on the 'Blue Ocean Strategy®,' a concept from the business world which aims to identify undiscovered and uncontested market space, and to brainstorm innovative ideas and methods with which to address current challenges in neurocritical care research. Three five-member working groups met at least four times by teleconference prior to the in-person meeting to prepare answers to a set of questions using the Blue Ocean Strategy concept as a platform. At the Fifth NCRN Conference, these groups presented to a five-member jury and all attendees for open discussion. The jury then developed a set of recommendations for NCS to consider in order to move neurocritical care research forward. We have summarized the topics discussed at the conference and put forward recommendations for the future direction of the NCRN and neurocritical care research in general.

Diffusional Kurtosis along the Corticospinal Tract in Adult Normal Pressure Hydrocephalus.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Normal Pressure Hydrocephalus is a reversible form of dementia characterized by enlarged ventricles, which can deform and cause disruptions to adjacent white matter fibers. The purpose of this work was to examine how diffusion and kurtosis parameters vary along the corticospinal tract and determine where along this path microstructure is compromised in patients diagnosed with normal pressure hydrocephalus. We hypothesized that disruption of the corticospinal tract from ventricular enlargement can be measured using diffusion MR imaging and this will be quantified in periventricular regions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We developed a method to analyze diffusion parameters at discrete points along neural tracts. We then used diffusion MR imaging data from patients with Alzheimer disease and healthy controls to compare whether diffusion along the corticospinal tract differs from that of patients with normal pressure hydrocephalus. RESULTS: We found that diffusion parameters can differentiate patients with normal pressure hydrocephalus from those with Alzheimer disease and healthy controls: Axial diffusion, axial kurtosis, and the axonal water fraction were found to differ significantly across groups (P < .05) in an area located close to the superior internal capsule and corona radiata but below the cortex. CONCLUSIONS: A lower axonal water fraction indicates a lower axonal density in the corticospinal tract, which may indicate permanent damage. Lower axial kurtosis may imply that axons are being more aligned due to compression.

Recent Progress in Understanding and Predicting Atlantic Decadal Climate Variability.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Recent Atlantic climate prediction studies are an exciting new contribution to an extensive body of research on Atlantic decadal variability and predictability that has long emphasized the unique role of the Atlantic Ocean in modulating the surface climate. We present a survey of the foundations and frontiers in our understanding of Atlantic variability mechanisms, the role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and our present capacity for putting that understanding into practice in actual climate prediction systems. RECENT FINDINGS: The AMOC-or more precisely, the buoyancy-forced thermohaline circulation (THC) that encompasses both overturning and gyre circulations-appears to underpin decadal timescale prediction skill in the subpolar North Atlantic in retrospective forecasts. Skill in predicting more wide-ranging climate variations, including those over land, is more limited, but there are indications this could improve with more advanced models. SUMMARY: Preliminary successes in the field of initialized Atlantic climate prediction confirm the climate relevance of low-frequency Atlantic Ocean dynamics and suggest that useful decadal climate prediction is a realizable goal.

Self-reported factors that affect glycemic control in college students with type 1 diabetes.

PURPOSE: This study examined the self-reported impact of different factors on the overall diabetes care of college students with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: An 18-item questionnaire was mailed to 164 students with type 1 diabetes attending college away from home; results from 42 students fulfilled study criteria and were analyzed. Metabolic control was assessed by relative changes in glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels from medical records. RESULTS: HbA1c levels did not change significantly between high school and college, yet most college students reported that diabetes was more difficult to manage in college. Commonly reported barriers to diabetes control included diet, irregular schedules, lack of parental involvement, peer pressure, drugs and alcohol, fear of hypoglycemia, and finances. Factors identified as improving diabetes control were an increased sense of responsibility, increased frequency of blood glucose testing, exercise, contact with healthcare providers, fear of hyperglycemia, and knowledge of the results of the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial. Many students reported testing their blood more frequently and taking more injections than in high school; most were on intensive insulin regimens. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the perception that diabetes management was more difficult in college, metabolic control was maintained during college, possibly due to a more intensive treatment approach.

Fate of moderate and large secundum type atrial septal defect associated with isolated coarctation in infants.

A moderate to large secundum atrial septal defect associated with isolated coarctation in infancy is likely to close spontaneously. Nine of 12 defects, including 4 defects > or =8 mm in at least 1 dimension, had either closed or were believed to be hemodynamically insignificant at follow-up, supporting the strategy of a lateral thoracotomy approach to coarctation and deferral of atrial surgery.

Epidemic Legionnaires' disease two decades later: old sources, new diagnostic methods.

In July 1995 we investigated a pneumonia outbreak in a Pennsylvania town. We conducted epidemiological and molecular microbiological studies to determine the outbreak source and interrupt transmission of disease. Legionnaires' disease (LD) was quickly identified by urine antigen testing, and a newly developed immunohistochemical stain confirmed nosocomial transmission to a hospital inpatient. LD was confirmed in 22 patients. Case-patients were more likely than controls to have been within 1,000 feet of the hospital (matched odds ratio, 21.0; 95% confidence interval, 2.9-368) during the 2 weeks prior to illness. Legionella pneumophila serogroup 1 (Lp-1) was isolated from hospital cooling towers (CTs) and rooftop air samples but not from hospital potable water or community CTs. Hospital CT and air Lp-1 isolates matched all five patient isolates by monoclonal antibody, arbitrarily primed polymerase chain reaction, and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis subtyping. Strategies to prevent LD must include minimizing transmission from CTs.

Tissue-specific alternative splicing of Shaker potassium channel transcripts results from distinct modes of regulating 3' splice choice.

Alternative splicing of precursor RNA enables a single gene to encode multiple protein isoforms with different functional characteristics and tissue distributions. Differential splicing of Drosophila Shaker (Sh) gene transcripts regulates the tissue-specific expression of kinetically distinct potassium ion channels throughout development. Regulation of Sh alternative splicing is being examined in germline transformants using lacZ as a reporter gene. P-element constructs were generated in which one or both of the two mutually exclusive Sh 3' acceptor sites were positioned in the same translational reading frame as the lacZ coding sequences. The constructs were introduced into the germline and the transgenic animals examined for tissue-specific beta-galactosidase expression patterns. Some tissues exhibit "promiscuous" splicing; these tissues are competent to splice to either 3' acceptor even when both are present on the same pre-mRNA. In other tissues splice choice results from competition between the two 3' sites; these tissues can splice to either site when it is the only available 3' acceptor, but when given a choice will splice to only one of the two 3' acceptors. In some tissues, splicing occurs exclusively at only one of the 3' acceptor sites; these tissues are not competent to splice to one of the sites even if it is the only 3' acceptor present on the pre-mRNA. These results suggests that multiple, distinct regulatory modes are operating to control tissue-specific alternative splicing of Sh 3' domains and are discussed in terms of potential underlying mechanisms for regulating the tissue-specific expression of alternatively spliced genes.

Extraskeletal Ewing's sarcoma of primary cardiac origin.

A 13-year-old boy presented with cardiac tamponade. Echocardiography revealed a large mass extending from the right and left ventricles into a large pericardial effusion. Pathology confirmed the first reported case of a primary cardiac extraskeletal Ewing's sarcoma.

Perinatal and postnatal chest sonography.

Sonography is the primary method used to image the fetal chest. Many significant congenital anomalies such as pleural effusion, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, cystic adenomatoid malformation, pulmonary sequestration, and congenital heart disease can be detected during early prenatal sonography. Fetal sonography also permits accurate assessment of the severity of these processes, allowing for parental counseling and optimal planning of postnatal care. After birth, sonography is the primary method for evaluating cardiac anatomy and diagnosing congenital heart disease. Sonography also serves as a useful adjunct to plain film radiology and other modalities in evaluation of the mediastinum, diaphragm, pleura, and chest wall.

Echocardiographic diagnosis of fetal heart defects in mid trimester.

One hundred and thirty five consecutive fetuses of between 16 and 23 weeks' gestation that were considered to be at high risk of having structural heart defects were examined prospectively to determine the reliability of echocardiography for diagnosing such defects in mid trimester. Each echocardiogram was done in a standard manner and cardiac anatomy was analysed segmentally. Twelve fetuses were excluded from analysis because of lack of follow up. Of the remaining 123 fetuses, 109 had no evidence of heart disease when followed up. In this group the prenatal echocardiogram was normal in 105 and technically inadequate in four; thus there were no false positive diagnoses of heart disease in fetuses subsequently shown to have normal hearts. Fourteen had heart defects at follow up. The serious defect was correctly diagnosed prenatally in 10 of 14 cases, whereas in the other four the prenatal echocardiogram was considered normal. Some errors were made in diagnosing associated segmental defects particularly if the heart disease was complicated. Therapeutic abortion was carried out in seven cases; in five of the fetuses the prenatally diagnosed heart defect was the sole or an important contributing reason for the abortion. We conclude that echocardiography is a reliable method for diagnosing many heart defects in the mid trimester.

Prediction of arterial blood pressure in the premature neonate using the oscillometric method.

The noninvasive oscillometric measurement of blood pressure (BP) in preterm neonates has become a common practice in intensive care nurseries. The method has gained acceptance primarily through its correlation with direct arterial measurement. In this study, the oscillometric method (using Dinamap 1846) was compared with direct intra-arterial BP monitoring in 15 preterm infants. The 95% prediction intervals for individual oscillometric measurements were wide, ranging from 17 mm Hg for the mean BP to 20 mm Hg for the systolic and diastolic BP. The oscillometric method also underestimated intra-arterial systolic and mean BP and overestimated diastolic BP. Caution must be used when oscillometrically measuring BP in premature neonates.

Separation of metalloporphyrins from metallation reactions by liquid chromatography and electrophoresis.

The analytical separation of the indium and manganese complexes of three synthetic, meso-substituted, water-soluble porphyrins from their respective free bases in metallation reaction mixtures is described. The ligands tetra-3N-methylpyridyl porphyrin, tetra-4N-methylpyridyl porphyrin and tetra-N,N,N-trimethylanilinium porphyrin are complexed with In (III) and Mn (III) and are separated from residual free base by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) in acidic conditions with gradient elution on ODS bonded stationary phase. Electrophoretic separation is achieved on both cellulose polyacetate strips and polyacrylamide tube gels under basic conditions. Although analytical separations can be achieved by both HPLC and electrophoresis, only HPLC is suitable for the development of preparative scale separations. Column chromatography, ion-pairing and ion-suppression HPLC techniques fail to separate such highly charged and closely related aromatic compounds.

Pulmonary valve stenosis associated with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy.

The association of pulmonic stenosis with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is rare in infancy. Presented here is an infant with atypical picture of pulmonic stenosis and echocardiographic evidence of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. At eight months of age, she had a successful percutaneous balloon valvuloplasty and has subsequently been managed with propranolol.