Mercury accumulation, biomagnification, and relationships to δ13C, δ15N and δ34S of fishes and marine mammals in a coastal Arctic marine food web.

Combining mercury and stable isotope data sets of consumers facilitates the quantification of whether contaminant variation in predators is due to diet, habitat use and/or environmental factors. We investigated inter-species variation in total Hg (THg) concentrations, trophic magnification slope between δ15N and THg, and relationships of THg with δ13C and δ34S in 15 fish and four marine mammal species (249 individuals in total) in coastal Arctic waters. Median THg concentration in muscle varied between species ranging from 0.08 ± 0.04 µg g-1 dw in capelin to 3.10 ± 0.80 µg g-1 dw in beluga whales. Both δ15N (r2 = 0.26) and δ34S (r2 = 0.19) best explained variation in log-THg across consumers. Higher THg concentrations occurred in higher trophic level species that consumed more pelagic-associated prey than consumers that rely on the benthic microbial-based food web. Our study illustrates the importance of using a multi-isotopic approach that includes δ34S when investigating trophic Hg dynamics in coastal marine systems.

Year-round utilization of sea ice-associated carbon in Arctic ecosystems.

Sea ice primary production is considered a valuable energy source for Arctic marine food webs, yet the extent remains unclear through existing methods. Here we quantify ice algal carbon signatures using unique lipid biomarkers in over 2300 samples from 155 species including invertebrates, fish, seabirds, and marine mammals collected across the Arctic shelves. Ice algal carbon signatures were present within 96% of the organisms investigated, collected year-round from January to December, suggesting continuous utilization of this resource despite its lower proportion to pelagic production. These results emphasize the importance of benthic retention of ice algal carbon that is available to consumers year-round. Finally, we suggest that shifts in the phenology, distribution and biomass of sea ice primary production anticipated with declining seasonal sea ice will disrupt sympagic-pelagic-benthic coupling and consequently the structure and the functioning of the food web which is critical for Indigenous Peoples, commercial fisheries, and global biodiversity.

Linking movement and dive data to prey distribution models: new insights in foraging behaviour and potential pitfalls of movement analyses.

BACKGROUND: Animal movement data are regularly used to infer foraging behaviour and relationships to environmental characteristics, often to help identify critical habitat. To characterize foraging, movement models make a set of assumptions rooted in theory, for example, time spent foraging in an area increases with higher prey density. METHODS: We assessed the validity of these assumptions by associating horizontal movement and diving of satellite-telemetered ringed seals (Pusa hispida)-an opportunistic predator-in Hudson Bay, Canada, to modelled prey data and environmental proxies. RESULTS: Modelled prey biomass data performed better than their environmental proxies (e.g., sea surface temperature) for explaining seal movement; however movement was not related to foraging effort. Counter to theory, seals appeared to forage more in areas with relatively lower prey diversity and biomass, potentially due to reduced foraging efficiency in those areas. CONCLUSIONS: Our study highlights the need to validate movement analyses with prey data to effectively estimate the relationship between prey availability and foraging behaviour.

Top predator sea stars are the benthic equivalent to polar bears of the pelagic realm.

The marine pelagic compartment spans numerous trophic levels and consists of numerous reticulate connections between species from primary producers to iconic apex predators, while the benthic compartment is perceived to be simpler in structure and comprised of only low trophic level species. Here, we challenge this paradigm by illustrating that the benthic compartment is home to a subweb of similar structure and complexity to that of the pelagic realm, including the benthic equivalent to iconic polar bears: megafaunal-predatory sea stars.

Spatiotemporal variation of ringed seal blubber cortisol levels in the Canadian Arctic.

Climate change in the Arctic has widespread and complex effects on the health of animals and their populations. We used radioimmunoassay to measure blubber cortisol in ringed seals (Pusa hispida) sampled in Ulukhaktok, Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Northwest Territories, Canada (spring, 2002, 2004-2005, 2007-2012) and Arviat, Nunavut, Canada (autumn, 2003-2012) to examine chronic stress relative to biology (age, sex, length), body condition (blubber depth), and diet (δ13C, δ15N, and isotopic niche size). Ulukhaktok ringed seals had higher cortisol concentrations overall (0.46 ± 0.04 ng/g) than Arviat ringed seals (0.36 ± 0.03 ng/g), and these higher concentrations were associated with higher muscle δ15N and lower blubber thickness. In contrast, blubber cortisol concentrations for Arviat ringed seals decreased with blubber depth and increased with age, though testing of age effects individually suggests that age-related patterns are weak. Annual mean cortisol concentration increased from 2003 to 2012 in Arviat ringed seals, but low sample sizes precluded analysis of annual patterns for Ulukhaktok ringed seals. The trend of increased cortisol over time in Arviat ringed seals suggests that they might be experiencing greater chronic stress over time, which could have implications for numerous population health metrics including reproduction and pup recruitment.

Climate change and mercury in the Arctic: Biotic interactions.

Global climate change has led to profound alterations of the Arctic environment and ecosystems, with potential secondary effects on mercury (Hg) within Arctic biota. This review presents the current scientific evidence for impacts of direct physical climate change and indirect ecosystem change on Hg exposure and accumulation in Arctic terrestrial, freshwater, and marine organisms. As the marine environment is elevated in Hg compared to the terrestrial environment, terrestrial herbivores that now exploit coastal/marine foods when terrestrial plants are iced over may be exposed to higher Hg concentrations. Conversely, certain populations of predators, including Arctic foxes and polar bears, have shown lower Hg concentrations related to reduced sea ice-based foraging and increased land-based foraging. How climate change influences Hg in Arctic freshwater fishes is not clear, but for lacustrine populations it may depend on lake-specific conditions, including interrelated alterations in lake ice duration, turbidity, food web length and energy sources (benthic to pelagic), and growth dilution. In several marine mammal and seabird species, tissue Hg concentrations have shown correlations with climate and weather variables, including climate oscillation indices and sea ice trends; these findings suggest that wind, precipitation, and cryosphere changes that alter Hg transport and deposition are impacting Hg concentrations in Arctic marine organisms. Ecological changes, including northward range shifts of sub-Arctic species and altered body condition, have also been shown to affect Hg levels in some populations of Arctic marine species. Given the limited number of populations and species studied to date, especially within Arctic terrestrial and freshwater systems, further research is needed on climate-driven processes influencing Hg concentrations in Arctic ecosystems and their net effects. Long-term pan-Arctic monitoring programs should consider ancillary datasets on climate, weather, organism ecology and physiology to improve interpretation of spatial variation and time trends of Hg in Arctic biota.

Larger body size leads to greater female beluga whale ovarian reproductive activity at the southern periphery of their range.

Identification of phenotypic characteristics in reproductively successful individuals provides important insights into the evolutionary processes that cause range shifts due to environmental change. Female beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) from the Baffin Bay region (BB) of the Canadian Arctic in the core area of the species' geographic range have larger body size than their conspecifics at the southern range periphery in Hudson Bay (HB). We investigated the mechanism for this north and south divergence as it relates to ovarian reproductive activity (ORA = total corpora) that combines morphometric data with ovarian corpora counted from female reproductive tracts. Our study aim was to assess the relative influence of age and body size of female beluga whale on ORA in the two populations. Female beluga whale ORA increased more quickly with age (63% partial variation explained) in BB than in HB (41%). In contrast, body length in HB female beluga whales accounted for considerably more of the total variation (12% vs. 1%) in ORA compared to BB whales. We speculate that female HB beluga whale ORA was more strongly linked with body length due to higher population density resulting in food competition that favors the energetic advantages of larger body size during seasonal food limitations. Understanding the evolutionary mechanism of how ORA varies across a species' range will assist conservation efforts in anticipating and mitigating future challenges associated with a warming planet.

Predicting how climate change threatens the prey base of Arctic marine predators.

Arctic sea ice loss has direct consequences for predators. Climate-driven distribution shifts of native and invasive prey species may exacerbate these consequences. We assessed potential changes by modelling the prey base of a widely distributed Arctic predator (ringed seal; Pusa hispida) in a sentinel area for change (Hudson Bay) under high- and low-greenhouse gas emission scenarios from 1950 to 2100. All changes were relatively negligible under the low-emission scenario, but under the high-emission scenario, we projected a 50% decline in the abundance of the well-distributed, ice-adapted and energy-rich Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) and an increase in the abundance of smaller temperate-associated fish in southern and coastal areas. Furthermore, our model predicted that all fish species declined in mean body size, but a 29% increase in total prey biomass. Declines in energy-rich prey and restrictions in their spatial range are likely to have cascading effects on Arctic predators.

Environmental and life-history factors influence inter-colony multidimensional niche metrics of a breeding Arctic marine bird.

Human industrialization has resulted in rapid climate change, leading to wide-scale environmental shifts. These shifts can modify food web dynamics by altering the abundance and distribution of primary producers (ice algae and phytoplankton), as well as animals at higher trophic levels. Methylmercury (MeHg) is a neuro-endocrine disrupting compound which biomagnifies in animals as a function of prey choice, and as such bioavailability is affected by altered food web dynamics and adds an important risk-based dimension in studies of foraging ecology. Multidimensional niche dynamics (MDND; δ13C, δ15N, THg; total mercury) were determined among breeding common eider (Somateria mollissima) ducks sampled from 10 breeding colonies distributed across the circumpolar Arctic and subarctic. Results showed high variation in MDND among colonies as indicated by niche size and ranges in δ13C, δ15N and THg values in relation to spatial differences in primary production inferred from sea-ice presence and colony migratory status. Colonies with higher sea-ice cover during the pre-incubation period had higher median colony THg, δ15N, and δ13C. Individuals at migratory colonies had relatively higher THg and δ15N, and lower δ13C, suggesting a higher trophic position and a greater reliance on phytoplankton-based prey. It was concluded that variation in MDND exists among eider colonies which influenced individual blood THg concentrations. Further exploration of spatial ecotoxicology and MDND at each individual site is important to examine the relationships between anthropogenic activities, foraging behaviour, and the related risks of contaminant exposure at even low, sub-lethal concentrations that may contribute to deleterious effects on population stability over time. Overall, multidimensional niche analysis that incorporates multiple isotopic and contaminant metrics could help identify those populations at risk to rapidly altered food web dynamics.

Determining the appropriate pretreatment procedures and the utility of liver tissue for bulk stable isotope (δ13 C and δ15 N) studies in sharks.

Stable-isotope analysis (SIA) provides a valuable tool to address complex questions pertaining to elasmobranch ecology. Liver, a metabolically active, high turnover tissue (~166 days for 95% turnover), has the potential to reveal novel insights into recent feeding/movement behaviours of this diverse group. To date, limited work has used this tissue, but ecological application of SIA in liver requires consideration of tissue preparation techniques given the potential for high concentrations of urea and lipid that could bias δ13 C and δ15 N values (i.e., result in artificially lower δ13 C and δ15 N values). Here we investigated the effectiveness of (a) deionized water washing (WW) for urea removal from liver tissue and (b) chloroform-methanol for extraction of lipids from this lipid rich tissue. We then (a) established C:N thresholds for deriving ecologically relevant liver isotopic values given complications of removing all lipid and (b) undertook a preliminary comparison of δ13 C values between tissue pairs (muscle and liver) to test if observed isotopic differences correlated with known movement behaviour. Tests were conducted on four large shark species: the dusky (DUS, Carcharhinus obscurus), sand tiger (RAG, Carcharias taurus), scalloped hammerhead (SCA, Sphyrna lewini) and white shark (GRE, Carcharodon carcharias). There was no significant difference in δ15 N values between lipid-extracted (LE) liver and lipid-extracted/water washed (WW) treatments, however, WW resulted in significant increases in %N, δ13 C and %C. Following lipid extraction (repeated three times), some samples were still biased by lipids. Our species-specific "C:N thresholds" provide a method to derive ecologically viable isotope data given the complexities of this lipid rich tissue (C:N thresholds of 4.0, 3.6, 4.7 and 3.9 for DUS, RAG, SCA and GRE liverLEWW tissue, respectively). The preliminary comparison of C:N threshold corrected liver and muscle δ13 C values corresponded with movement/habitat behaviours for each shark; minor differences in δ13 C values were observed for known regional movements of DUS and RAG (δ13 CDiffs = 0.24 ± 0.99‰ and 0.57 ± 0.38‰, respectively), while SCA and GRE showed greater differences (1.24 ± 0.63‰ and 1.08 ± 0.71‰, respectively) correlated to large-scale movements between temperate/tropical and pelagic/coastal environments. These data provide an approach for the successful application of liver δ13 C and δ15 N values to examine elasmobranch ecology.

Atlantic walrus signal latitudinal differences in the long-term decline of sea ice-derived carbon to benthic fauna in the Canadian Arctic.

Climate change is altering the biogeochemical and physical characteristics of the Arctic marine environment, which impacts sea ice algal and phytoplankton bloom dynamics and the vertical transport of these carbon sources to benthic communities. Little is known about whether the contribution of sea ice-derived carbon to benthic fauna and nitrogen cycling has changed over multiple decades in concert with receding sea ice. We combined compound-specific stable isotope analysis of amino acids with highly branched isoprenoid diatom lipid biomarkers using archived (1982-2016) tissue of benthivorous Atlantic walrus to examine temporal trends of sea ice-derived carbon, nitrogen isotope baseline and trophic position of Atlantic walrus at high- and mid-latitudes in the Canadian Arctic. Associated with an 18% sea ice decline in the mid-Arctic, sea ice-derived carbon contribution to Atlantic walrus decreased by 75% suggesting a strong decoupling of sea ice-benthic habitats. By contrast, a nearly exclusive amount of sea ice-derived carbon was maintained in high-Arctic Atlantic walrus (98% in 1996 and 89% in 2006) despite a similar percentage in sea ice reduction. Nitrogen isotope baseline or the trophic position of Atlantic walrus did not change over time at either location. These findings indicate latitudinal differences in the restructuring of carbon energy sources used by Atlantic walrus and their benthic prey, and in turn a change in Arctic marine ecosystem functioning between sea ice-pelagic-benthic habitats.

Isotopic Discrimination (δ15N, δ13C) in Captive and Wild Common Murres (Uria aalge) and Atlantic Puffins (Fratercula arctica).

Studying the diet of consumers using stable isotopes provides insight into the foraging ecology of individuals and species. To accurately reconstruct the integrated diet of animals using stable isotope values, we must quantify diet-tissue discrimination factors (DTDFs), or the way in which stable isotopes in prey are incorporated into the tissues of consumers. To quantify DTDFs, controlled experiments are needed, whereby consumers are fed a constant diet. However, relatively few controlled-diet studies have been conducted for seabirds. In this study, captive adult Atlantic puffins (Fratercula arctica) and common murres (Uria aalge) were fed a two-source diet of capelin (Mallotus villosus) and Atlantic silverside (Menidia menidia) to determine the DTDFs for the cellular component of blood and plasma for both δ15N and δ13C. The DTDFs for the cellular component (Δ15N: 2.80±0.28; Δ13C: 1.21±0.22) and plasma (Δ15N: 1.72±1.03; Δ13C: -0.18±0.56) of puffins were similar to those for the cellular component (Δ15N: 2.91±0.18; Δ13C: 1.09±0.23) and plasma (Δ15N: 2.18±0.77; Δ13C: -0.70±0.18) of murres. We reconstructed the diet of wild murres and puffins breeding on the northeastern coast of Newfoundland using previously published DTDFs and estimated DTDFs from our feeding experiment. Reconstructed dietary proportions supported a priori knowledge of diet, although outputs were sensitive to the DTDF used. Despite the similarity of our DTDFs for puffins and murres, along with the similarity of our DTDFs with those of other seabird species, our sensitivity analysis revealed considerable differences among resultant dietary contributions from mixing models, further highlighting the importance of using species- and tissue-specific DTDFs to enhance knowledge in the foraging ecology of seabirds using stable isotopes.

Contrasting Temporal Patterns of Mercury, Niche Dynamics, and Body Fat Indices of Polar Bears and Ringed Seals in a Melting Icescape.

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and ringed seals (Pusa hispida) have a strong predator-prey relationship and are facing climate-associated Arctic habitat loss and harmful dietary exposure to total mercury (THg) and other pollutants. However, little is known about whether both species inhabiting the same area exhibit similar temporal patterns in Hg concentration, niche dynamics, and body fat indices. We used THg, δ13C, and δ15N values of western Hudson Bay polar bear hair (2004-2016) and ringed seal muscle samples (2003-2015) to investigate temporal trends of these variables and multidimensional niche metrics, as well as body fat indices for both species. We found a decline in THg concentration (by 3.8% per year) and δ13C (by 1.5‰) in ringed seals suggesting a change in feeding habits and carbon source use over time, whereas no significant changes occurred in polar bears. In contrast, the polar bear 3-dimensional niche size decreased by nearly half with no change in ringed seal niche size. The δ13C spacing between both species increased by approximately 1.5× suggesting different responses to annual changes in sympagic-pelagic carbon source production. Ringed seal body fat index was higher in years of earlier sea ice breakup with no change occurring in polar bears. These findings indicate that both species are responding differently to a changing environment suggesting a possible weakening of their predator-prey relationship in western Hudson Bay.

Diet-tissue discrimination factors (δ15 N and δ13 C values) for blood components in Magellanic (Spheniscus magellanicus) and southern rockhopper (Eudyptes chrysocome) penguins.

RATIONALE: Analysis of the stable isotope ratios of carbon and nitrogen (δ13 C and δ15 N values) is increasingly being used to gain insight into predator trophic ecology, which requires accurate diet-tissue discrimination factors (DTDFs), or the isotopic difference between prey and predator. Accurate DTDFs must be calculated from predators consuming an isotopically constant diet over time in controlled feeding experiments, but these studies have received little attention to date, especially among seabird species. METHODS: In this study, aquarium-housed Magellanic (Spheniscus magellanicus) and southern rockhopper (Eudyptes chrysocome) penguins were fed a single-prey source diet (capelin Mallotus villosus) for eight weeks. Stable isotope ratios (δ13 C and δ15 N values) of penguin blood (cellular component and plasma) and capelin were measured using mass spectrometry and then used to calculate DTDFs for both components of penguin blood by comparison with prey values. RESULTS: The DTDFs for plasma were -0.63 ± 0.49 (mean ± SD) and -0.27 ± 0.22 for δ13 C values, and 2.60 ± 0.50 and 2.78 ± 0.22 for δ15 N values for Magellanic and southern rockhopper penguins, respectively, while the DTDFs for the cellular component were 1.22 ± 0.03 and 1.26 ± 0.03 for δ13 C values, and 2.54 ± 0.07 and 2.43 ± 0.17 for δ15 N values. CONCLUSIONS: We compare our DTDFs with published values from blood components of penguins and discuss the effects that lipid extraction, sample storage, and diet have on the DTDFs of penguin blood components. This study provides accurate DTDFs of blood components for two seabird species of conservation concern, and is one of the first to provide plasma DTDFs for penguins, which are underrepresented in the seabird literature.

A temporal shift in trophic diversity among a predator assemblage in a warming Arctic.

Climate change is leading to northward shifts in species distributions that is altering interspecific interactions at low- and mid-trophic levels. However, little attention has been focused on the effects of redistributions of species on the trophic ecology of a high trophic-level predator assemblage. Here, during a 22-year period (1990-2012) of increasing sea temperature (1.0°C) and decreasing sea ice extent (12%) in Cumberland Sound, Nunavut, Canada, we examined the trophic structure of a near-apex predator assemblage before (1990-2002) and after (2005-2012) an increase in the availability of capelin-generally an indicator species in colder marine environments for a warming climate. Stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) were used in a Bayesian framework to assess shifts in diet, niche size and community-wide metrics for beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas), ringed seals (Pusa hispida), Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) and anadromous Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus). After 2005, consumption of forage fish increased for all predator species, suggesting diet flexibility with changing abiotic and biotic conditions. An associated temporal shift from a trophically diverse to a trophically redundant predator assemblage occurred where predators now play similar trophic roles by consuming prey primarily from the pelagic energy pathway. Overall, these long-term ecological changes signify that trophic shifts of a high trophic-level predator assemblage associated with climate change have occurred in the Arctic food web.

High contributions of sea ice derived carbon in polar bear (Ursus maritimus) tissue.

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) rely upon Arctic sea ice as a physical habitat. Consequently, conservation assessments of polar bears identify the ongoing reduction in sea ice to represent a significant threat to their survival. However, the additional role of sea ice as a potential, indirect, source of energy to bears has been overlooked. Here we used the highly branched isoprenoid lipid biomarker-based index (H-Print) approach in combination with quantitative fatty acid signature analysis to show that sympagic (sea ice-associated), rather than pelagic, carbon contributions dominated the marine component of polar bear diet (72-100%; 99% CI, n = 55), irrespective of differences in diet composition. The lowest mean estimates of sympagic carbon were found in Baffin Bay bears, which were also exposed to the most rapidly increasing open water season. Therefore, our data illustrate that for future Arctic ecosystems that are likely to be characterised by reduced sea ice cover, polar bears will not only be impacted by a change in their physical habitat, but also potentially in the supply of energy to the ecosystems upon which they depend. This data represents the first quantifiable baseline that is critical for the assessment of likely ongoing changes in energy supply to Arctic predators as we move into an increasingly uncertain future for polar ecosystems.

Validating fin tissue as a non-lethal proxy to liver and muscle tissue for stable isotope analysis of yellow perch (Perca flavescens).

Stable isotope ecology typically involves sacrificing the animal to obtain tissues. However, with threatened species or in long-term longitudinal studies, non-lethal sampling techniques should be used. The objectives of this study were to (1) determine if caudal fin tissue could be used as a non-lethal proxy to liver and muscle for stable isotope analysis, and (2) assess the effects of ethanol preservation on δ15N and δ13C in fin tissue of juvenile yellow perch Perca flavescens. The δ13C of caudal fin was not significantly different from liver (t23 = -0.58; p = 0.57), and was more correlated with δ15N in liver (r2 = 0.78) than muscle (r2 = 0.56). Ethanol preservation enriched 15N and 13C for caudal fins, but by using our developed regression models, these changes in δ15N and δ13C can now be corrected. Overall, caudal fin tissue is a more reliable proxy to liver than muscle for δ15N and δ13C in yellow perch.

Temporal shifts in intraguild predation pressure between beluga whales and Greenland halibut in a changing Arctic.

Asymmetrical intraguild predation (AIGP), which combines both predation and competition between predator species, is pervasive in nature with relative strengths varying by prey availability. But with species redistributions associated with climate change, the response by endemic predators within an AIGP context to changing biotic-abiotic conditions over time (i.e. seasonal and decadal) has yet to be quantified. Furthermore, little is known on AIGP dynamics in ecosystems undergoing rapid directional change such as the Arctic. Here, we investigate the flexibility of AIGP among two predators in the same trophic guild: beluga (Delphinapterus leucas) and Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides), by season and over 30 years in Cumberland Sound-a system where forage fish capelin (Mallotus villosus) have recently become more available. Using stable isotopes, we illustrate different predator responses to temporal shifts in forage fish availability. On a seasonal cycle, beluga consumed less Greenland halibut and increased consumption of forage fish during summer, contrasting a constant consumption rate of forage fish by Greenland halibut year-round leading to decreased AIGP pressure between predators. Over a decadal scale (1982-2012), annual consumption of forage fish by beluga increased with a concomitant decline in the consumption of Greenland halibut, thereby indicating decreased AIGP pressure between predators in concordance with increased forage fish availability. The long-term changes of AIGP pressure between endemic predators illustrated here highlights climate-driven environmental alterations to interspecific intraguild interactions in the Arctic.

Demographic, ecological, and physiological responses of ringed seals to an abrupt decline in sea ice availability.

To assess whether demographic declines of Arctic species at the southern limit of their range will be gradual or punctuated, we compared large-scale environmental patterns including sea ice dynamics to ringed seal (Pusa hispida) reproduction, body condition, recruitment, and stress in Hudson Bay from 2003 to 2013. Aerial surveys suggested a gradual decline in seal density from 1995 to 2013, with the lowest density occurring in 2013. Body condition decreased and stress (cortisol) increased over time in relation to longer open water periods. The 2010 open water period in Hudson Bay coincided with extremes in large-scale atmospheric patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, El Nino-Southern Oscillation) resulting in the earliest spring breakup and the latest ice formation on record. The warming event was coincident with high stress level, low ovulation rate, low pregnancy rate, few pups in the Inuit harvest, and observations of sick seals. Results provide evidence of changes in the condition of Arctic marine mammals in relation to climate mediated sea ice dynamics. We conclude that although negative demographic responses of Hudson Bay seals are occurring gradually with diminishing sea ice, a recent episodic environmental event played a significant role in a punctuated population decline.