A multi-state evaluation of extreme risk protection orders: a research protocol.

BACKGROUND: Extreme Risk Protection Orders (ERPOs) are civil court orders that prohibit firearm purchase and possession when someone is behaving dangerously and is at risk of harming themselves and/or others. As of June 2024, ERPOs are available in 21 states and the District of Columbia to prevent firearm violence. This paper describes the design and protocol of a six-state study of ERPO use. METHODS: The six states included are California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, and Washington. During the 3-year project period (2020-2023), ERPO case files were obtained through public records requests or through agreements with agencies with access to these data in each state. A team of over four dozen research assistants from seven institutions coded 6628 ERPO cases, abstracting 80 variables per case under domains related to respondent characteristics, events and behaviors leading to ERPO petitions, petitioner types, and court outcomes. Research assistants received didactic training through an online learning management system that included virtual training modules, quizzes, practice coding exercises, and two virtual synchronous sessions. A protocol for gaining strong interrater reliability was used. Research assistants also learned strategies for reducing the risk of experiencing secondary trauma through the coding process, identifying its occurrence, and obtaining help. DISCUSSION: Addressing firearm violence in the U.S. is a priority. Understanding ERPO use in these six states can inform implementation planning and ERPO uptake, including promising opportunities to enhance safety and prevent firearm-related injuries and deaths. By publishing this protocol, we offer detailed insight into the methods underlying the papers published from these data, and the process of managing data abstraction from ERPO case files across the multi-state and multi-institution teams involved. Such information may also inform future analyses of this data, and future replication efforts. REGISTRATION: This protocol is registered on Open Science Framework ( https://osf.io/kv4fc/ ).

Suicide Prevention Effects of Extreme Risk Protection Order Laws in Four States.

More than half of suicide deaths in the United States result from self-inflicted firearm injuries. Extreme risk protection order (ERPO) laws in 21 states and the District of Columbia temporarily limit access to firearms for individuals found in a civil court process to pose an imminent risk of harm to themselves or others. Research with large multistate study populations has been lacking to determine effectiveness of these laws. This study assembled records pertaining to 4,583 ERPO respondents in California, Connecticut, Maryland, and Washington. Matched records identified suicide decedents and self-injury method. Researchers applied case fatality rates for each suicide method to estimate nonfatal suicide attempts corresponding to observed deaths. Comparison of counterfactual to observed data patterns yielded estimates of the number of lives saved and number of ERPOs needed to avert one suicide. Estimates varied depending on the assumed probability that a gun owner who attempts suicide will use a gun. Two evidence-based approaches yielded estimates of 17 and 23 ERPOs needed to prevent one suicide. For the subset of 2,850 ERPO respondents with documented suicide concern, comparable estimates were 13 and 18, respectively. This study's findings add to growing evidence that ERPOs can be an effective and important suicide prevention tool.

Extreme Risk Protection Orders in Connecticut, 2013-2020.

Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia have enacted Extreme Risk Protection Order (ERPO) statutes, which allow temporary removal of firearms from individuals who pose an imminent risk of harm to themselves or others. Connecticut was the first state to enact such a law in 1999. The law's implementation and use between 1999 and 2013 were previously described, finding that ERPOs were pursued rarely for the first decade and that most orders were issued in response to concerns about suicide or self-harm rather than about interpersonal violence. The current study analyzes over 1,400 ERPOs in Connecticut between 2013 and 2020 in several domains: respondent demographics, circumstances leading to ERPO filing, type of threat (suicide, violence to others, or both), number and type of firearms removed, prevalence of mental illness and drug and alcohol use, and legal outcomes. Results are similar to the earlier study, indicating that ERPO respondents in Connecticut are primarily White, male, middle-aged residents of small towns and suburbs who pose a risk of harm to themselves (67.9%) more often than to others (42.8%). Significant gender differences between ERPO respondents are discussed, as are state-specific trends over time and differences between Connecticut and other states with published ERPO data.

Protocol for a nationwide case-control study of firearm violence prevention tactics and policies in K-12 schools.

BACKGROUND: Most U.S. K-12 schools have adopted safety tactics and policies like arming teachers and installing metal detectors, to address intentional school gun violence. However, there is minimal research on their effectiveness. Furthermore, sociodemographic factors may influence their implementation. Controlled studies are necessary to investigate their impact on gun violence and related disciplinary outcomes. OBJECTIVE: The paper outlines the protocol for a case-control study examining gun violence prevention policies in U.S. K-12 schools. The study aims to investigate if there is an association between the total number and type of specific safety tactics and policies and the occurrence of intentional shootings in K-12 public schools, student disciplinary outcomes, and if urbanicity, economic, and racial factors modify these associations. METHODS: We will create a nationally representative dataset for this study and ascertain a full census of case schools (schools that experienced intentional gunfire on the campus during school hours since 2015) through national school shooting databases. Matched control schools will be randomly selected from U.S. Department of Education's national database of all public schools. We will analyze 27 school safety strategies organized into seven key exposure groupings. RESULTS: Supported by the National Institutes for Child Health and Development (R01HD108027-01) and having received Institutional Review Board approval, our study is currently in the data collection phase. Our analytical plan will determine the association between the number and type of school safety tactics and policies with the occurrence of intentional shootings and suspensions and expulsions in a national sample of approximately 650 K-12 public schools. Additional analyses will investigate the effect modification of specific covariates. CONCLUSION: As the first national, controlled study, its results will provide novel and needed data on the effectiveness of school safety tactics and policies in preventing intentional shootings at K-12 public schools.

Examining the role of firearm involvement in repeat intimate partner violence assaults.

BACKGROUND: Intimate partner violence (IPV) remains a pervasive and complex issue with significant social and public health implications. The nexus of firearms and intimate partner violence (IPV) is an especially dangerous one. However, little is known about how firearm involvement can influence the risk of repeat IPV assaults. METHODS: We use data from 346 male perpetrated IPV incidents reported to the Detroit Police Department between December 2016 and April 2017 to examine the role of firearm involvement in IPV recidivism during a 5 and half year follow up period. Employing a conditional gap-time frailty model that accommodates heterogeneity among individuals through a frailty term, we analyze time to multiple IPV assaults that occur over the follow up period. We identify various pathways through which firearms impact the likelihood of subsequent IPV incidents, including intimidation, threats, and use of firearms, while controlling for observable perpetrator characteristics to understand the explicit roles of firearms. RESULTS: Firearm involvement at the index assault was not associated with IPV recidivism. However, involvement of firearms in past IPV assaults significantly increased the risk of subsequent physical IPV. The discrepancy is likely arising from a high degree of censoring among individuals who were armed with a firearm during the index assault. CONCLUSION: Our research reveals a nuanced relationship between firearm involvement and IPV recidivism, shedding light on the multifaceted dynamics at play. By elucidating the intricate dynamics at the intersection of firearms and intimate partner violence, our study underscores the need for targeted policy interventions and preventative measures aimed at reducing IPV recidivism.

Extreme Risk Protection Orders in Older Adults in Six U.S. States: A Descriptive Study.

OBJECTIVES: Extreme Risk Protection Orders (ERPOs) allow a court to restrict firearm access for individuals ("respondents") at imminent risk of harm to self/others. Little is known about ERPOs use for older adults, a population with higher rates of suicide and dementia. METHODS: We abstracted ERPO cases through June 30, 2020, from California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, and Washington. We restricted our analysis to petitions for older (≥65 years) respondents, stratified by documented cognitive impairment. RESULTS: Among 6,699 ERPO petitions, 672 (10.0%) were for older adults; 13.7% (n = 92) of these noted cognitive impairment. Most were white (75.7%) men (90.2%). Cognitively impaired (vs. non-impaired) respondents were older (mean age 78.2 vs 72.7 years) and more likely to have documented irrational/erratic behavior (30.4% vs 15.7%), but less likely to have documented suicidality (33.7% vs 55.0%). At the time of the petition, 56.2% of older adult respondents had documented firearm access (median accessible firearms = 3, range 1-160). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 14% of ERPO petitions for older adults involved cognitive impairment; one-third of these noted suicide risk. Studies examining ERPO implementation across states may inform usage and awareness. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: ERPOs may reduce firearm access among older adults with cognitive impairment, suicidality, or risk of violence.

Challenges, Successes, and the Future of Firearm Injury Prevention.

Policy Points Firearm injury is a leading cause of death in the United States, with fatality rates increasing 34.9% over the past decade (2010-2020). Firearm injury is preventable through multifaceted evidence-based approaches. Reviewing past challenges and successes in the field of firearm injury prevention can highlight the future directions needed in the field. Adequate funding, rigorous and comprehensive data availability and access, larger pools of diverse and scientifically trained researchers and practitioners, robust evidence-based programming and policy implementation, and a reduction in stigma, polarization, and politicization of the science are all needed to move the field forward.

Building a Transdisciplinary Team to Prevent Intimate Partner Homicide: A Research Note.

Intimate partner violence (IPV) and intimate partner homicide (IPH) are complex global problems. Transdisciplinary research approaches offer the potential to increase the understanding of these events and inform best practices for prevention. To encourage scholars to adopt transdisciplinary practices when investigating multifaceted problems, this note employs a case study approach to detail one such effort-The Preventing and Assessing Intimate Partner Homicide Risk (PAIR) Studies. The goal of the PAIR Studies is to improve the understanding of IPH to inform the development of best practices for prevention. The note concludes with a discussion of the benefits of transdisciplinary approaches.

Extreme risk protection orders in response to threats of multiple victim/mass shooting in six U.S. states: A descriptive study.

Extreme risk protection orders (ERPOs), also known as red flag laws, are a potential tool to prevent firearm violence, including mass shootings, but little is currently known about the extent of their use in cases of mass shooting threats or about the threats themselves. We collected and abstracted information from ERPO cases from six states (California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Maryland, and Washington). Ten percent (N = 662) of all ERPO cases (N = 6787) were in response to a threat of killing at least 3 people. Using these cases, we created a typology of multiple victim/mass shooting threats, the most common of which was the maximum casualty threat. The most common target for a multiple victim/mass shooting threat was a K-12 school, followed by businesses, then intimate partners and their children and families. Judges granted 93% of petitions that involved these threats at the temporary ERPO stage and, of those cases in which a final hearing was held, judges granted 84% of final ERPOs. While we cannot know how many of the 662 ERPO cases precipitated by a threat would have resulted in a multiple victim/mass shooting event had ERPO laws not been used to prohibit the purchase and possession of firearms, the study provides evidence at least that ERPOs are being used in six states in a substantial number of these kinds of cases that could have ended in tragedy.

State firearm laws, gun ownership, and K-12 school shootings: Implications for school safety.

Limited research has been conducted on the state-level factors that may be associated with intentional school shootings. We obtained school shooting data from the Washington Post that identified any act of intentional interpersonal gunfire in a K-12 school over the course of two decades. We also compiled new data on active school shootings during the same twenty-year time period, which identified any attempted mass shooting incident in a K-12 school. We conducted a time-series analysis to measure the association of permissiveness of state firearm laws and state gun ownership with K-12 school shootings and active shootings. More permissive firearm laws and higher rates of gun ownership were associated with higher rates of both school shootings and active school shootings after controlling for critical covariates. Specific recommendations for K-12 schools to consider as they seek to prevent acts of intentional gunfire on school grounds are presented.

Firearm ownership, attitudes, and safe storage practices among a nationally representative sample of older U.S. adults age 50 to 80.

Firearms are a leading cause of injury mortality across the lifespan, with elevated risks for older adult populations. To inform prevention efforts, we conducted a probability-based web survey (12/1/2019-12/23/2019) of 2048 older adults (age 50-80) to characterize national estimates of firearm ownership, safety practices, and attitudes about health screening, counseling, and policy initiatives. Among older U.S. adults, 26.7% [95%CI = 24.8%-28.8%] report owning one or more firearms. The primary motivation for ownership was protection (69.5%), with 90.4% highlighting a fear of criminal assault. 39.4% of firearm owners reported regularly storing firearm(s) unloaded and locked, with 24.2% regularly storing at least one loaded and unlocked. While most firearm owners found healthcare screening (69.2% [95%CI: 64.9-73.1]) and safety counseling (63.2% [95%CI = 58.8-67.3]) acceptable, only 3.7% of older adults reported being asked about firearm safety by a healthcare provider in the past year. Among firearm owners, there was support for state-level policy interventions, including allowing family/police to petition courts to restrict access when someone is a danger to self/others (78.9% [95%CI = 75.1-82.3]), comprehensive background checks (85.0% [95%CI = 81.5-87.9]), restricting access/ownership under domestic violence restraining orders (88.1%; 95%CI = 84.9-90.7], and removing firearms from older adults with dementia/confusion (80.6%; 95%CI = 76.8-84.0]. Healthcare and policy-level interventions maintained higher support among non-owners than owners (p's < 0.001). Overall, data highlights opportunities exist for more robust firearm safety prevention efforts among older adults, particularly healthcare-based counseling and state/federal policies that focus on addressing lethal means access among at-risk individuals.

The Association of Federal and State-level Firearm Restriction Policies With Intimate Partner Homicide: A Re-analysis by Race of the Victim.

Firearms present a significant risk of intimate partner homicide (IPH) among women in the United States, and Black women continue to be overrepresented among IPH fatalities. State-level firearm restrictions for individuals under domestic violence restraining orders (DVRO) and firearm restrictions for those convicted of violent misdemeanor crimes are associated with reductions in IPH. To receive these protections, individuals must engage with the civil or criminal justice system. While access to, and engagement with, these systems may differ between Black and White populations, research has yet to examine the impact of these firearm restriction laws on IPH by racial group.We conducted pooled, cross-sectional, time-series analyses to examine the association of selected firearm restriction laws on IPH by the race of the victims, from 1981 to 2013 for 45 states in the United States.State-level DVRO firearm restrictions were associated with reductions in IPH in the White population only. The inclusion of relinquishment provisions in state DVRO firearm laws is associated with an 11% reduction in IPH and a 16% reduction in firearm IPH for White, but not Black, victims. Similarly, laws prohibiting individuals convicted of violent misdemeanors from possessing firearms are associated with a 23% reduction in IPH and a 28% reduction in firearm IPH for White victims only. The federal DVRO firearm restriction law is associated with a 27% reduction in state-level IPH and a 28% reduction in firearm IPH for Black, but not White, victims.Firearm restriction laws may have a limited impact on IPH in Black populations. Future research should examine the factors behind the differential estimated impact of these laws by the race of the victims.

Saving Lives: Working across Agencies and Individuals to Reduce Intimate Homicide among those at Greatest Risk.

This special issue of the Journal of Family Violence offers insights on intimate homicide prevention from leading researchers and practitioners. The insights offered are timely, given the pervasiveness of domestic violence (DV), including some data since the emergence of COVID-19 noting an increase in DV-related  cases with severe  injury and police calls. Contributors in this special issue argue for interagency advocacy, protection orders, and firearm removal, along with reimagining data capture, risk assessment, firearm protocols, and fatality reviews to improve equitable services and care for DV survivors at the highest risk of homicide.

The Intersection of Firearms and Intimate Partner Homicide in 15 Nations.

Intimate partners commit approximately one in three homicides against women worldwide. Little is known about situational factors that contribute to intimate partner homicides (IPH) and how they may differ across nations. This article provides a cross-national exploration of one situational factor, the use of firearms in the commission of homicides, and considers whether nations have laws designed specifically to keep firearms out of the hands of batterers. We conducted a systematic search of peer-reviewed research and governmental and nongovernmental reports for data on weapon use in IPH. Data were located for 15 nations and subnational areas, which varied from firearms being involved in no IPHs in Fiji to 59% in Antalya, Turkey. Seven nations have legislation that addresses gun ownership as it relates to those who have been charged with, convicted of, or show a propensity toward the commission of intimate partner violence. These laws vary in whether domestic violence is a factor considered in whether to allow firearm ownership or whether it served to disqualify ownership. Due to the small number of nations for which data on weapon use in IPH were located, we did not conduct any hypothesis testing. There is a need for detailed homicide surveillance systems among nations so that researchers can explore the epidemiology of these homicides and ultimately identify opportunities for intervention.

US Firearm-Related Mortality: National, State, And Population Trends, 1999-2017.

Nationwide firearm-related mortality rates increased in 2015-17 after remaining relatively stable in 1999-2014. Recent increases are reflected across most states and demographics to varying degrees, which suggests a worsening epidemic of firearm mortality that is geographically and demographically broad. In both time periods the fractions of firearm deaths due to suicide and homicide remained consistent.

Ecological Research for Studies of Violence: A Methodological Guide.

Ecological research is important to the study of violence in communities. The phrases "ecological research" and "ecologic study" describe those research studies that use grouped or geographic units of analysis, such as zip codes, cities, or states. This type of research allows for the investigation of group-level effects and can be inexpensive and relatively quick to conduct if the researcher uses existing data. And, importantly, ecological studies are an efficient means for hypothesis generation prior to, and can be used to justify, costlier individual-level studies. Ecological research designs may be employed to study violence outcomes when the research question is at the population level, either for theoretical reasons, or when an exposure or intervention is at the population level, or when individual-level studies are not feasible; however, ecological research results must not be used to make individual-level inferences. This article will discuss reasons to conduct ecological-level research, guidelines for choosing the ecological unit of analysis, frequently used research designs, common limitations of ecological research, including the ecological fallacy, and issues to consider when using existing data.