Acute internal medicine physicians' clinical intuition based on acute care telephone referral: A prospective study.

INTRODUCTION: In the Netherlands, most emergency department (ED) patients are referred by a general practitioner (GP) or a hospital specialist. Early risk stratification during telephone referral could allow the physician to assess the severity of the patients' illness in the prehospital setting. We aim to assess the discriminatory value of the acute internal medicine (AIM) physicians' clinical intuition based on telephone referral of ED patients to predict short-term adverse outcomes, and to investigate on which information their predictions are based. METHODS: In this prospective study, we included adult ED patients who were referred for internal medicine by a GP or a hospital specialist. Primary outcomes were hospital admission and triage category according to the Manchester Triage System (MTS). Secondary outcome was 31-day mortality. The discriminatory performance of the clinical intuition was assessed using an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). To identify which information is important to predict adverse outcomes, we performed univariate regression analysis. Agreement between predicted and observed MTS triage category was assessed using intraclass and Spearman's correlation. RESULTS: We included 333 patients, of whom 172 (51.7%) were referred by a GP, 146 (43.8%) by a hospital specialist, and 12 (3.6%) by another health professional. The AIM physician's clinical intuition showed good discriminatory performance regarding hospital admission (AUC 0.72, 95% CI: 0.66-0.78) and 31-day mortality (AUC 0.73, 95% CI: 0.64-0.81). Univariate regression analysis showed that age ≥65 years and a sense of alarm were significant predictors. The predicted and observed triage category were similar in 45.2%, but in 92.5% the prediction did not deviate by more than one category. Intraclass and Spearman's correlation showed fair agreement between predicted and observed triage category (ICC 0.48, Spearman's 0.29). CONCLUSION: Clinical intuition based on relevant information during a telephone referral can be used to accurately predict short-term outcomes, allowing for early risk stratification in the prehospital setting and managing ED patient flow more effectively.

Impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019-Related Infection Prevention and Control Measures on the Occurrence of COPD Exacerbations During Inpatient Pulmonary Rehabilitation.

Rationale: A significant reduction in hospitalizations for acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPDs) has been reported during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. It remains unclear whether this reduction is the result of health care avoidance by patients, or of infection prevention and control (IPC) measures. Objectives: Our objective was to explore the impact of COVID-19-related IPC measures on the occurrence of AECOPD in a real-life inpatient pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) setting, thereby ruling out potential effects of health care avoidance. Methods: Patients with COPD admitted for 8 weeks of inpatient PR at Ciro (Horn, the Netherlands) between October 2020 and March 2021, the first winter with full COVID-19-related IPC measures,were compared to patients admitted during the same period in previous years (2017-2018, 2018-2019, and 2019-2020). Electronic medical records were retrospectively screened for the occurrence of moderate to severe AECOPDs, drop-out, and mortality. Results: A total of 501 patients with COPD (median age 66.6 [interquartile range (IQR) 60.3-71.9] years, 43.1% male, forced expiratory volume in 1 second [FEV1] 35.9 [26.8-50.6] % predicted) were analyzed. During 2020-2021, 22 patients (31.0%) experienced ≥1 AECOPD compared to 43 patients (33.6%) in 2019-2020, 55 patients (36.9%) in 2018-2019, and 83 patients (54.2%) in 2017-2018. This represents a 25.4% reduction in 2020-2021 compared to the average of the previous 3 periods, p=0.077. No differences in AECOPD severity, drop-out, or mortality were observed. Conclusions: COVID-19-related IPC measures did not significantly reduce the AECOPD rate during inpatient PR in a single-center setting. The current findings suggest that avoidance of health care may be an important factor in the observed reduction of AECOPD-related hospitalizations during the pandemic and that the value of the strict COVID-19-related IPC measures for the prevention of AECOPDs warrants further research.

Recovery from COVID-19: a sprint or marathon? 6-month follow-up data from online long COVID-19 support group members.

BACKGROUND: It remains unknown whether and to what extent members of online "long COVID" peer support groups remain symptomatic and limited over time. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate symptoms in members of online long COVID peer support groups up to 6 months after the onset of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related symptoms. METHODS: Demographics, symptoms, health status, work productivity, functional status and health-related quality of life were assessed about 3 and 6 months after the onset of COVID-19-related symptoms in members of online long COVID peer support groups. RESULTS: Data from 239 patients with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis (83% women; median (interquartile range) age 50 (39-56) years) were analysed. During the infection, a median (interquartile range) of 15 (11-18) symptoms was reported, which was significantly lower 3 and 6 months later: 6 (4-9) and 6 (3-8), respectively (p<0.05). From 3 to 6 months follow-up, the proportion of patients without symptoms increased from 1.3% to only 5.4% (p<0.001). Patients also reported a significantly improved work productivity (work absenteeism and presenteeism: 73% versus 52% and 66% versus 60%, respectively), self-reported good health (9.2% versus 16.7%), functional status (mean±sd Post-COVID-19 Functional Status scale: 2.4±0.9 versus 2.2±1.0) and health-related quality of life (all p<0.05). CONCLUSION: Although patients with confirmed COVID-19, who were all members of online long COVID peer support groups, reported significant improvements in work productivity, functional status and quality of life between 3 and 6 months follow-up, these data clearly highlight the long-term impact of COVID-19, as approximately 6 months after the onset of COVID-19-related symptoms a large proportion still experienced persistent symptoms, a moderate-to-poor health, moderate-to-severe functional limitations, considerable loss in work productivity, and/or an impaired quality of life. Action is needed to improve the management and healthcare of these patients.