Dynamic Energy Budget model for E. coli growth in carbon and nitrogen limitation conditions.

The simulations and predictions obtained from mathematical models of bioprocesses conducted by microorganisms are not overvalued. Mechanistic models are bringing a better process understanding and the possibility of simulating unmeasurable variables. The Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) model is an energy balance that can be formulated for any living organism and can be classified as a structured model. In this study, the DEB model was used to describe E. coli growth in a batch reactor in carbon and nitrogen substrate limitation conditions. The DEB model provides a possibility to follow the changes in the microbes' cells including their elemental composition and content of some important cell ingredients in different growth phases in substrate limitation conditions which makes it more informative compared to Monod's model. The model can be used as an optimal choice between Monod-like models and flux-based approaches. KEY POINTS: • The DEB model can be used to catch changes in elemental composition of E. coli • Bacteria batch culture growth phases can be explained by the DEB model • The DEB model is more informative compared to Monod's based models.

Re-assessing thermal response of schistosomiasis transmission risk: evidence for a higher thermal optimum than previously predicted.

The geographical range of schistosomiasis is affected by the ecology of schistosome parasites and their obligate host snails, including their response to temperature. Previous models predicted schistosomiasis' thermal optimum at 21.7 °C, which is not compatible with the temperature in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) regions where schistosomiasis is hyperendemic. We performed an extensive literature search for empirical data on the effect of temperature on physiological and epidemiological parameters regulating the free-living stages of S. mansoni and S. haematobium and their obligate host snails, i.e., Biomphalaria spp. and Bulinus spp., respectively. We derived nonlinear thermal responses fitted on these data to parameterize a mechanistic, process-based model of schistosomiasis. We then re-cast the basic reproduction number and the prevalence of schistosome infection as functions of temperature. We found that the thermal optima for transmission of S. mansoni and S. haematobium range between 23.1-27.3 °C and 23.6-27.9 °C (95 % CI) respectively. We also found that the thermal optimum shifts toward higher temperatures as the human water contact rate increases with temperature. Our findings align with an extensive dataset of schistosomiasis prevalence in SSA. The refined nonlinear thermal-response model developed here suggests a more suitable current climate and a greater risk of increased transmission with future warming for more than half of the schistosomiasis suitable regions with mean annual temperature below the thermal optimum.

Patient-Specific, Mechanistic Models of Tumor Growth Incorporating Artificial Intelligence and Big Data.

Despite the remarkable advances in cancer diagnosis, treatment, and management over the past decade, malignant tumors remain a major public health problem. Further progress in combating cancer may be enabled by personalizing the delivery of therapies according to the predicted response for each individual patient. The design of personalized therapies requires the integration of patient-specific information with an appropriate mathematical model of tumor response. A fundamental barrier to realizing this paradigm is the current lack of a rigorous yet practical mathematical theory of tumor initiation, development, invasion, and response to therapy. We begin this review with an overview of different approaches to modeling tumor growth and treatment, including mechanistic as well as data-driven models based on big data and artificial intelligence. We then present illustrative examples of mathematical models manifesting their utility and discuss the limitations of stand-alone mechanistic and data-driven models. We then discuss the potential of mechanistic models for not only predicting but also optimizing response to therapy on a patient-specific basis. We describe current efforts and future possibilities to integrate mechanistic and data-driven models. We conclude by proposing five fundamental challenges that must be addressed to fully realize personalized care for cancer patients driven by computational models.

drexml: A command line tool and Python package for drug repurposing.

We introduce drexml, a command line tool and Python package for rational data-driven drug repurposing. The package employs machine learning and mechanistic signal transduction modeling to identify drug targets capable of regulating a particular disease. In addition, it employs explainability tools to contextualize potential drug targets within the functional landscape of the disease. The methodology is validated in Fanconi Anemia and Familial Melanoma, two distinct rare diseases where there is a pressing need for solutions. In the Fanconi Anemia case, the model successfully predicts previously validated repurposed drugs, while in the Familial Melanoma case, it identifies a promising set of drugs for further investigation.

Framework for converting mechanistic network models to probabilistic models.

There are two prominent paradigms for the modelling of networks: in the first, referred to as the mechanistic approach, one specifies a set of domain-specific mechanistic rules that are used to grow or evolve the network over time; in the second, referred to as the probabilistic approach, one describes a model that specifies the likelihood of observing a given network. Mechanistic models (models developed based on the mechanistic approach) are appealing because they capture scientific processes that are believed to be responsible for network generation; however, they do not easily lend themselves to the use of inferential techniques when compared with probabilistic models. We introduce a general framework for converting a mechanistic network model (MNM) to a probabilistic network model (PNM). The proposed framework makes it possible to identify the essential network properties and their joint probability distribution for some MNMs; doing so makes it possible to address questions such as whether two different mechanistic models generate networks with identical distributions of properties, or whether a network property, such as clustering, is over- or under-represented in the networks generated by the model of interest compared with a reference model. The proposed framework is intended to bridge some of the gap that currently exists between the formulation and representation of mechanistic and PNMs. We also highlight limitations of PNMs that need to be addressed in order to close this gap.

Functional Profiling of Soft Tissue Sarcoma Using Mechanistic Models.

Soft tissue sarcoma is an umbrella term for a group of rare cancers that are difficult to treat. In addition to surgery, neoadjuvant chemotherapy has shown the potential to downstage tumors and prevent micrometastases. However, finding effective therapeutic targets remains a research challenge. Here, a previously developed computational approach called mechanistic models of signaling pathways has been employed to unravel the impact of observed changes at the gene expression level on the ultimate functional behavior of cells. In the context of such a mechanistic model, RNA-Seq counts sourced from the Recount3 resource, from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) Sarcoma project, and non-diseased sarcomagenic tissues from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) project were utilized to investigate signal transduction activity through signaling pathways. This approach provides a precise view of the relationship between sarcoma patient survival and the signaling landscape in tumors and their environment. Despite the distinct regulatory alterations observed in each sarcoma subtype, this study identified 13 signaling circuits, or elementary sub-pathways triggering specific cell functions, present across all subtypes, belonging to eight signaling pathways, which served as predictors for patient survival. Additionally, nine signaling circuits from five signaling pathways that highlighted the modifications tumor samples underwent in comparison to normal tissues were found. These results describe the protective role of the immune system, suggesting an anti-tumorigenic effect in the tumor microenvironment, in the process of tumor cell detachment and migration, or the dysregulation of ion homeostasis. Also, the analysis of signaling circuit intermediary proteins suggests multiple strategies for therapy.

An algebraic formula, deep learning and a novel SEIR-type model for the COVID-19 pandemic.

The most extensively used mathematical models in epidemiology are the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) type models with constant coefficients. For the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic, such models predict that at large times equilibrium is reached exponentially. However, epidemiological data from Europe suggest that this approach is algebraic. Indeed, accurate long-term predictions have been obtained via a forecasting model only if it uses an algebraic as opposed to the standard exponential formula. In this work, by allowing those parameters of the SEIR model that reflect behavioural aspects (e.g. spatial distancing) to vary nonlinearly with the extent of the epidemic, we construct a model which exhibits asymptoticly algebraic behaviour. Interestingly, the emerging power law is consistent with the typical dynamics observed in various social settings. In addition, using reliable epidemiological data, we solve in a numerically robust way the inverse problem of determining all model parameters characterizing our novel model. Finally, using deep learning, we demonstrate that the algebraic forecasting model used earlier is optimal.

Review: When worlds collide - poultry modeling in the 'Big Data' era.

Within poultry production systems, models have provided vital decision support, opportunity analysis, and performance optimization capabilities to nutritionists and producers for decades. In recent years, due to the advancement of digital and sensor technologies, 'Big Data' streams have emerged, optimally positioned to be analyzed by machine-learning (ML) modeling approaches, with strengths in forecasting and prediction. This review explores the evolution of empirical and mechanistic models in poultry production systems, and how these models may interact with new digital tools and technologies. This review will also examine the emergence of ML and Big Data in the poultry production sector, and the emergence of precision feeding and automation of poultry production systems. There are several promising directions for the field, including: (1) application of Big Data analytics (e.g., sensor-based technologies, precision feeding systems) and ML methodologies (e.g., unsupervised and supervised learning algorithms) to feed more precisely to production targets given a 'known' individual animal, and (2) combination and hybridization of data-driven and mechanistic modeling approaches to bridge decision support with improved forecasting capabilities.

Statistical methods to identify mechanisms in studies of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

While the reciprocal effects of ecological and evolutionary dynamics are increasingly recognized as an important driver for biodiversity, detection of such eco-evolutionary feedbacks, their underlying mechanisms, and their consequences remains challenging. Eco-evolutionary dynamics occur at different spatial and temporal scales and can leave signatures at different levels of organization (e.g., gene, protein, trait, community) that are often difficult to detect. Recent advances in statistical methods combined with alternative hypothesis testing provides a promising approach to identify potential eco-evolutionary drivers for observed data even in non-model systems that are not amenable to experimental manipulation. We discuss recent advances in eco-evolutionary modeling and statistical methods and discuss challenges for fitting mechanistic models to eco-evolutionary data.

From genotype to phenotype: computational approaches for inferring microbial traits relevant to the food industry.

When selecting microbial strains for the production of fermented foods, various microbial phenotypes need to be taken into account to achieve target product characteristics, such as biosafety, flavor, texture, and health-promoting effects. Through continuous advances in sequencing technologies, microbial whole-genome sequences of increasing quality can now be obtained both cheaper and faster, which increases the relevance of genome-based characterization of microbial phenotypes. Prediction of microbial phenotypes from genome sequences makes it possible to quickly screen large strain collections in silico to identify candidates with desirable traits. Several microbial phenotypes relevant to the production of fermented foods can be predicted using knowledge-based approaches, leveraging our existing understanding of the genetic and molecular mechanisms underlying those phenotypes. In the absence of this knowledge, data-driven approaches can be applied to estimate genotype-phenotype relationships based on large experimental datasets. Here, we review computational methods that implement knowledge- and data-driven approaches for phenotype prediction, as well as methods that combine elements from both approaches. Furthermore, we provide examples of how these methods have been applied in industrial biotechnology, with special focus on the fermented food industry.

Within-host modeling to measure dynamics of antibody responses after natural infection or vaccination: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Within-host models describe the dynamics of immune cells when encountering a pathogen, and how these dynamics can lead to an individual-specific immune response. This systematic review aims to summarize which within-host methodology has been used to study and quantify antibody kinetics after infection or vaccination. In particular, we focus on data-driven and theory-driven mechanistic models. MATERIALS: PubMed and Web of Science databases were used to identify eligible papers published until May 2022. Eligible publications included those studying mathematical models that measure antibody kinetics as the primary outcome (ranging from phenomenological to mechanistic models). RESULTS: We identified 78 eligible publications, of which 8 relied on an Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs)-based modelling approach to describe antibody kinetics after vaccination, and 12 studies used such models in the context of humoral immunity induced by natural infection. Mechanistic modeling studies were summarized in terms of type of study, sample size, measurements collected, antibody half-life, compartments and parameters included, inferential or analytical method, and model selection. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the importance of investigating antibody kinetics and underlying mechanisms of (waning of) the humoral immunity, few publications explicitly account for this in a mathematical model. In particular, most research focuses on phenomenological rather than mechanistic models. The limited information on the age groups or other risk factors that might impact antibody kinetics, as well as a lack of experimental or observational data remain important concerns regarding the interpretation of mathematical modeling results. We reviewed the similarities between the kinetics following vaccination and infection, emphasising that it may be worth translating some features from one setting to another. However, we also stress that some biological mechanisms need to be distinguished. We found that data-driven mechanistic models tend to be more simplistic, and theory-driven approaches lack representative data to validate model results.

Mathematics of neural stem cells: Linking data and processes.

Adult stem cells are described as a discrete population of cells that stand at the top of a hierarchy of progressively differentiating cells. Through their unique ability to self-renew and differentiate, they regulate the number of end-differentiated cells that contribute to tissue physiology. The question of how discrete, continuous, or reversible the transitions through these hierarchies are and the precise parameters that determine the ultimate performance of stem cells in adulthood are the subject of intense research. In this review, we explain how mathematical modelling has improved the mechanistic understanding of stem cell dynamics in the adult brain. We also discuss how single-cell sequencing has influenced the understanding of cell states or cell types. Finally, we discuss how the combination of single-cell sequencing technologies and mathematical modelling provides a unique opportunity to answer some burning questions in the field of stem cell biology.

From observational to actionable: rethinking omics in biologics production.

As the era of omics continues to expand with increasing ubiquity and success in both academia and industry, omics-based experiments are becoming commonplace in industrial biotechnology, including efforts to develop novel solutions in bioprocess optimization and cell line development. Omic technologies provide particularly valuable 'observational' insights for discovery science, especially in academic research and industrial R&D; however, biomanufacturing requires a different paradigm to unlock 'actionable' insights from omics. Here, we argue the value of omic experiments in biotechnology can be maximized with deliberate selection of omic approaches and forethought about analysis techniques. We describe important considerations when designing and implementing omic-based experiments and discuss how systems biology analysis strategies can enhance efforts to obtain actionable insights in mammalian-based biologics production.

Consistencies and contradictions in different polymer models of chromatin architecture.

Genetic information is stored in very long DNA molecules, which are folded to form chromatin, a similarly long polymer fibre that is ultimately organised into chromosomes. The organisation of chromatin is fundamental to many cellular functions, from the expression of the genetic information to cell division. As a long polymer, chromatin is very flexible and may adopt a myriad of shapes. Globally, the polymer physics governing chromatin dynamics is very well understood. But chromatin is not uniform and regions of it, with chemical modifications and bound effectors, form domains and compartments through mechanisms not yet clear. Polymer models have been successfully used to investigate these mechanisms to explain cytological observations and build hypothesis for experimental validation. Many different approaches to conceptualise chromatin in polymer models can be envisioned and each reflects different aspects. Here, we compare recent approaches that aim at reproducing prominent features of interphase chromatin organisation: the compartmentalisation into eu- and heterochromatin compartments, the formation of a nucleolus, chromatin loops and the rosette and Rabl conformations of interphase chromosomes. We highlight commonalities and contradictions that point to a modulation of the mechanisms involved to fine degree. Consolidating models will require the inclusion of yet hidden or neglected parameters.

Modulating Immune Response in Viral Infection for Quantitative Forecasts of Drug Efficacy.

The antiretroviral drug, the total level of viral production, and the effectiveness of immune responses are the main topics of this review because they are all dynamically interrelated. Immunological and viral processes interact in extremely complex and non-linear ways. For reliable analysis and quantitative forecasts that may be used to follow the immune system and create a disease profile for each patient, mathematical models are helpful in characterizing these non-linear interactions. To increase our ability to treat patients and identify individual differences in disease development, immune response profiling might be useful. Identifying which patients are moving from mild to severe disease would be more beneficial using immune system parameters. Prioritize treatments based on their inability to control the immune response and prevent T cell exhaustion. To increase treatment efficacy and spur additional research in this field, this review intends to provide examples of the effects of modelling immune response in viral infections, as well as the impact of pharmaceuticals on immune response.

A mechanistic spatio-temporal modeling of COVID-19 data.

Understanding the evolution of an epidemic is essential to implement timely and efficient preventive measures. The availability of epidemiological data at a fine spatio-temporal scale is both novel and highly useful in this regard. Indeed, having geocoded data at the case level opens the door to analyze the spread of the disease on an individual basis, allowing the detection of specific outbreaks or, in general, of some interactions between cases that are not observable if aggregated data are used. Point processes are the natural tool to perform such analyses. We analyze a spatio-temporal point pattern of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases detected in Valencia (Spain) during the first 11 months (February 2020 to January 2021) of the pandemic. In particular, we propose a mechanistic spatio-temporal model for the first-order intensity function of the point process. This model includes separate estimates of the overall temporal and spatial intensities of the model and a spatio-temporal interaction term. For the latter, while similar studies have considered different forms of this term solely based on the physical distances between the events, we have also incorporated mobility data to better capture the characteristics of human populations. The results suggest that there has only been a mild level of spatio-temporal interaction between cases in the study area, which to a large extent corresponds to people living in the same residential location. Extending our proposed model to larger areas could help us gain knowledge on the propagation of COVID-19 across cities with high mobility levels.

A unified theory for the computational and mechanistic origins of grid cells.

The discovery of entorhinal grid cells has generated considerable interest in how and why hexagonal firing fields might emerge in a generic manner from neural circuits, and what their computational significance might be. Here, we forge a link between the problem of path integration and the existence of hexagonal grids, by demonstrating that such grids arise in neural networks trained to path integrate under simple biologically plausible constraints. Moreover, we develop a unifying theory for why hexagonal grids are ubiquitous in path-integrator circuits. Such trained networks also yield powerful mechanistic hypotheses, exhibiting realistic levels of biological variability not captured by hand-designed models. We furthermore develop methods to analyze the connectome and activity maps of our networks to elucidate fundamental mechanisms underlying path integration. These methods provide a road map to go from connectomic and physiological measurements to conceptual understanding in a manner that could generalize to other settings.

The establishment of plants following long-distance dispersal.

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) beyond the range of a species is an important driver of ecological and evolutionary patterns, but insufficient attention has been given to postdispersal establishment. In this review, we summarize current knowledge of the post-LDD establishment phase in plant colonization, identify six key determinants of establishment success, develop a general quantitative framework for post-LDD establishment, and address the major challenges and opportunities in future research. These include improving detection and understanding of LDD using novel approaches, investigating mechanisms determining post-LDD establishment success using mechanistic modeling and inference, and comparison of establishment between past and present. By addressing current knowledge gaps, we aim to further our understanding of how LDD affects plant distributions, and the long-term consequences of LDD events.

Drug-target identification in COVID-19 disease mechanisms using computational systems biology approaches.

Introduction: The COVID-19 Disease Map project is a large-scale community effort uniting 277 scientists from 130 Institutions around the globe. We use high-quality, mechanistic content describing SARS-CoV-2-host interactions and develop interoperable bioinformatic pipelines for novel target identification and drug repurposing. Methods: Extensive community work allowed an impressive step forward in building interfaces between Systems Biology tools and platforms. Our framework can link biomolecules from omics data analysis and computational modelling to dysregulated pathways in a cell-, tissue- or patient-specific manner. Drug repurposing using text mining and AI-assisted analysis identified potential drugs, chemicals and microRNAs that could target the identified key factors. Results: Results revealed drugs already tested for anti-COVID-19 efficacy, providing a mechanistic context for their mode of action, and drugs already in clinical trials for treating other diseases, never tested against COVID-19. Discussion: The key advance is that the proposed framework is versatile and expandable, offering a significant upgrade in the arsenal for virus-host interactions and other complex pathologies.

Data assimilation on mechanistic models of glucose metabolism predicts glycemic states in adolescents following bariatric surgery.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus is a complex and under-treated disorder closely intertwined with obesity. Adolescents with severe obesity and type 2 diabetes have a more aggressive disease compared to adults, with a rapid decline in pancreatic ß cell function and increased incidence of comorbidities. Given the relative paucity of pharmacotherapies, bariatric surgery has become increasingly used as a therapeutic option. However, subsets of this population have sub-optimal outcomes with either inadequate weight loss or little improvement in disease. Predicting which patients will benefit from surgery is a difficult task and detailed physiological characteristics of patients who do not respond to treatment are generally unknown. Identifying physiological predictors of surgical response therefore has the potential to reveal both novel phenotypes of disease as well as therapeutic targets. We leverage data assimilation paired with mechanistic models of glucose metabolism to estimate pre-operative physiological states of bariatric surgery patients, thereby identifying latent phenotypes of impaired glucose metabolism. Specifically, maximal insulin secretion capacity, σ, and insulin sensitivity, SI, differentiate aberrations in glucose metabolism underlying an individual's disease. Using multivariable logistic regression, we combine clinical data with data assimilation to predict post-operative glycemic outcomes at 12 months. Models using data assimilation sans insulin had comparable performance to models using oral glucose tolerance test glucose and insulin. Our best performing models used data assimilation and had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.7665, 0.7734) and mean average precision of 0.6258 (0.6206, 0.6311). We show that data assimilation extracts knowledge from mechanistic models of glucose metabolism to infer future glycemic states from limited clinical data. This method can provide a pathway to predict long-term, post-surgical glycemic states by estimating the contributions of insulin resistance and limitations of insulin secretion to pre-operative glucose metabolism.