RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Bladder cancer is a leading cause of cancer-related deaths all over the world. Epidemiological studies of bladder cancer are therefore crucial for policy making. This study was carried out to describe the characteristics of changes in the incidence and mortality of bladder cancer from 1990 to 2016 by age group, gender, geographical region, and sociodemographic index (SDI) and to simultaneously project future trends up to 2030. METHODS: Incidence and mortality trends in bladder cancer from 1990 to 2016 were described based on data and methodologies from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. The data also allowed the future trends of bladder cancer incidence and mortality to be predicted by ARIMA model. Trends were analyzed by age group, gender, and SDI. Projections to 2030 were sub-analyzed by SDI countries. R software (x64 version 3.5.1), SAS (version 9.3), and SPSS (version 22.0) were used throughout the process. RESULTS: Globally, in 2016, there were 437,442 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 426,709-447,912] new bladder cancer cases and 186,199 (95% UI, 180,453-191,686) bladder cancer-associated deaths. Between 1990 and 2016, changes in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of bladder cancer decreased by 5.91% from 7.11 (95% UI, 6.93-7.27) in 1990 to 6.69 (95% UI, 6.52-6.85) in 2016. The age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased from 3.58 (95% UI, 3.49-3.68) to 2.94 (95% UI, 2.85-3.03) over the same period of time. In future, the greatest occurrence of bladder cancer will be in high SDI countries, followed by high-middle SDI countries. Moreover, bladder cancer incidence rates may increase substantially in middle SDI countries, while the incidence rates will remain relatively stable for men and women in other SDI countries. From 2017 to 2030, bladder cancer deaths will continue to increase in low SDI countries, while deaths in other SDI countries will continue to decrease. CONCLUSIONS: There was a regional difference in the incidence and mortality trends of bladder cancer between 1990 and 2016. Overall, the situation is not optimistic. From 2017 to 2030, the incidence of bladder cancer will continue to rise, especially in high and high-middle SDI countries, where decision-makers should propose appropriate policies on the screening and prevention of bladder cancer.
RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: This study aims to present the trends of incidence and mortality of kidney cancer from 1990 to 2016 by age, gender, geographical region, regional, and sociodemographic index (SDI), and then forecast the future trends to 2030. METHODS: Data of this study were gathered from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), including 195 countries and territories, accounting for 21 regions. Over-time trends from 1990 to 2016 were analyzed by gender, geographical region, age range and SDI. Based on the big data, we forecasted the future trends to 2030 by ARIMA model. All the data were analyzed by R software (x64 version 3.5.1), SAS (version 9.3) and SPSS (version 22.0). RESULTS: Globally, in 2016, there were 342,100 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 330,759-349,934] incident cases of kidney cancer and the number of deaths were 131,800 (127,335-136,185). The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and death rate (ASDR) were 4.97 (4.81-5.09) per 100,000 and 2.00 (1.93-2.06) per 100,000, respectively. Globally, the estimated risk of kidney cancer for male within the age of 30 and 70 is around 0.79% compared to 0.41% for female. In other words, the probability of developing kidney cancer was generally higher in male than in female. By 2030, incidence of kidney cancer in both sexes are projected to increase substantially in high SDI, followed by middle SDI, low-middle SDI, and low SDI countries. High SDI and low SDI countries will also have increased mortality rates of kidney cancers. Globally, the trends in deaths due to kidney cancer will remain stable. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and death rate of kidney cancer are highly variable among SDI countries and regions but have increased uniformly from 1990 to 2016. By 2030, the future incidence of kidney cancer will grow continuously especially in high SDI countries, middle SDI, low-middle SDI, and low SDI countries.