Analyzing the Prevalence of and Factors Associated with Road Traffic Crashes (RTCs) among Motorcyclists in Bangladesh.

Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted using a structured questionnaire involving 402 motorcyclists from four major southeastern towns, comprising 350 (86.07%) males and 52 (12.93%) females. The chi-square test was applied in bivariate analysis, and binary multivariable logistic regression was performed to determine the risk factors of road traffic crashes. Results: This study's findings revealed that the overall reported prevalence of road traffic crashes involving motorcycle drivers over one year was 68.66%. Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed several factors that significantly impacted road traffic crashes. These factors included driving without a valid driving license, the young age (<20) of motorcyclists, driving in rainy weather, exceeding the speed limit, per-week working hours, smoking status, motorcycle ownership, the brand of motorcycle, and not wearing a helmet while driving. Conclusion: The study findings highlight the need for improving motorcycle safety by implementing measures such as imposing per-week work hour limits for riders, enforcing traffic regulations, and promoting helmet use among motorcycle drivers. The results of this study draw attention to the Bangladesh Road Transport Authority (BRTA) and motorcycle drivers in the country to decrease motorcycle crashes and the severity of injuries by implementing efficient guidelines and strategies for driving motorcycles. The findings of this study can assist policymakers and concerned authorities in taking the essential steps to lessen road traffic crashes among motorcyclists in Bangladesh.

The effects of ambient temperature on road traffic injuries in Jinan city: a time-stratified case-crossover study based on distributed lag nonlinear model.

Objectives: The impact of climate change, especially extreme temperatures, on health outcomes has become a global public health concern. Most previous studies focused on the impact of disease incidence or mortality, whereas much less has been done on road traffic injuries (RTIs). This study aimed to explore the effects of ambient temperature, particularly extreme temperature, on road traffic deaths in Jinan city. Methods: Daily data on road traffic deaths and meteorological factors were collected among all residents in Jinan city during 2011-2020. We used a time-stratified case-crossover design with distributed lag nonlinear model to evaluate the association between daily mean temperature, especially extreme temperature and road traffic deaths, and its variation in different subgroups of transportation mode, adjusting for meteorological confounders. Results: A total of 9,794 road traffic deaths were collected in our study. The results showed that extreme temperatures were associated with increased risks of deaths from road traffic injuries and four main subtypes of transportation mode, including walking, Bicycle, Motorcycle and Motor vehicle (except motorcycles), with obviously lag effects. Meanwhile, the negative effects of extreme high temperatures were significantly higher than those of extreme low temperatures. Under low-temperature exposure, the highest cumulative lag effect of 1.355 (95% CI, 1.054, 1.742) for pedal cyclists when cumulated over lag 0 to 6 day, and those for pedestrians, motorcycles and motor vehicle occupants all persisted until 14 days, with ORs of 1.227 (95% CI, 1.102, 1.367), 1.453 (95% CI, 1.214, 1.740) and 1.202 (95% CI, 1.005, 1.438), respectively. Under high-temperature exposure, the highest cumulative lag effect of 3.106 (95% CI, 1.646, 5.861) for motorcycle occupants when cumulated over lag 0 to 12 day, and those for pedestrian, pedal cyclists, and motor vehicle accidents all peaked when persisted until 14 days, with OR values of 1.638 (95% CI, 1.281, 2.094), 2.603 (95% CI, 1.695, 3.997) and 1.603 (95% CI, 1.066, 2.411), respectively. Conclusion: This study provides evidence that ambient temperature is significantly associated with the risk of road traffic injuries accompanied by obvious lag effect, and the associations differ by the mode of transportation. Our findings help to promote a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between temperature and road traffic injuries, which can be used to establish appropriate public health policies and targeted interventions.

Major Traffic Safety Reform and Road Traffic Injuries Among Low-Income New York Residents, 2009-2021.

Objectives. To evaluate the effects of a comprehensive traffic safety policy-New York City's (NYC's) 2014 Vision Zero-on the health of Medicaid enrollees. Methods. We conducted difference-in-differences analyses using individual-level New York Medicaid data to measure traffic injuries and expenditures from 2009 to 2021, comparing NYC to surrounding counties without traffic reforms (n = 65 585 568 person-years). Results. After Vision Zero, injury rates among NYC Medicaid enrollees diverged from those of surrounding counties, with a net impact of 77.5 fewer injuries per 100 000 person-years annually (95% confidence interval = -97.4, -57.6). We observed marked reductions in severe injuries (brain injury, hospitalizations) and savings of $90.8 million in Medicaid expenditures over the first 5 years. Effects were largest among Black residents. Impacts were reversed during the COVID-19 period. Conclusions. Vision Zero resulted in substantial protection for socioeconomically disadvantaged populations known to face heightened risk of injury, but the policy's effectiveness decreased during the pandemic period. Public Health Implications. Many cities have recently launched Vision Zero policies and others plan to do so. This research adds to the evidence on how and in what circumstances comprehensive traffic policies protect public health. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(6):633-641. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307617).

Analyzing the transition from two-vehicle collisions to chain reaction crashes: A hybrid approach using random parameters logit model, interpretable machine learning, and clustering.

Chain reaction crashes (CRC) begin with a two-vehicle collision and rapidly intensify as more vehicles get directly involved. CRCs result in more extensive damage compared to two-vehicle crashes and understanding the progression of a two-vehicle collision into a CRC can unveil preventive strategies that have received less attention. In this study, to align with recent research direction and overcome the limitations of econometric and machine learning (ML) modelling, a hybrid approach is adopted. Moreover, to tackle the existing challenges in crash analysis, addressing unobserved heterogeneity in ML, and exploring random parameter effects and interactions more precisely, a new approach is proposed. To achieve this, a hybrid random parameter logit model and interpretable ML, joint with prior latent class clustering is implemented. Notably, this is the first attempt at using a clustering with hybrid modeling. The significant risk factors, their critical values, distinct effects, and interactions are interpreted using both marginal effects and the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) method across clusters. This study utilizes crash, traffic, and geometric data from eleven suburban freeways in Iran collected over a 5-year period. The overall results indicate an increased risk of CRC in congested traffic, higher traffic variation, and on horizontal curves combined with longitudinal slopes. Some parameters exhibit distinct or fluctuating effects, which are discussed across different conditions or considering interactions. For instance, during nighttime, heightened congestion on 2-lane freeways, increased traffic variation in less congested conditions, and adverse weather combined with horizontal curves and slopes pose risks. During daytime, increased traffic variation within highly congested sections, higher proportion of heavy vehicle traffic in moderately congested sections, and two lanes in each direction coupled with curves, elevate the levels of risk. The results of this study provide a better understanding of risk factors impact across different conditions, which are usable for policy makers.

The development of a road safety policy index and its application in evaluating the effects of road safety policy.

The paper presents an exploratory study of a road safety policy index developed for Norway. The index consists of ten road safety measures for which data on their use from 1980 to 2021 are available. The ten measures were combined into an index which had an initial value of 50 in 1980 and increased to a value of 185 in 2021. To assess the application of the index in evaluating the effects of road safety policy, negative binomial regression models and multivariate time series models were developed for traffic fatalities, fatalities and serious injuries, and all injuries. The coefficient for the policy index was negative, indicating the road safety policy has contributed to reducing the number of fatalities and injuries. The size of this contribution can be estimated by means of at least three estimators that do not always produce identical values. There is little doubt about the sign of the relationship: a stronger road safety policy (as indicated by index values) is associated with a larger decline in fatalities and injuries. A precise quantification is, however, not possible. Different estimators of effect, all of which can be regarded as plausible, yield different results.

Emergency Department Visits for Pedestrians Injured in Motor Vehicle Traffic Crashes - United States, January 2021-December 2023.

Traffic-related pedestrian deaths in the United States reached a 40-year high in 2021. Each year, pedestrians also suffer nonfatal traffic-related injuries requiring medical treatment. Near real-time emergency department visit data from CDC's National Syndromic Surveillance Program during January 2021-December 2023 indicated that among approximately 301 million visits identified, 137,325 involved a pedestrian injury (overall visit proportion = 45.62 per 100,000 visits). The proportions of visits for pedestrian injury were 1.53-2.47 times as high among six racial and ethnic minority groups as that among non-Hispanic White persons. Compared with persons aged ≥65 years, proportions among those aged 15-24 and 25-34 years were 2.83 and 2.61 times as high, respectively. The visit proportion was 1.93 times as high among males as among females, and 1.21 times as high during September-November as during June-August. Timely pedestrian injury data can help collaborating federal, state, and local partners rapidly monitor trends, identify disparities, and implement strategies supporting the Safe System approach, a framework for preventing traffic injuries among all road users.

Epidemiological Burden of Neurotrauma in Nigeria: A Systematic Review and Pooled Analysis of 45,763 Patients.

OBJECTIVE: Neurotrauma is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in Nigeria. We conducted this systematic review to generate nationally generalizable reference data for the country. METHODS: Four research databases and gray literature sources were electronically searched. Risk of bias was assessed using the Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions and Cochrane's risk of bias tools. Descriptive analysis, narrative synthesis, and statistical analysis (via paired t-tests and χ2 independence tests) were performed on relevant article metrics (α = 0.05). RESULTS: We identified a cohort of 45,763 patients from 254 articles. The overall risk of bias was moderate to high. Most articles employed retrospective cohort study designs (37.4%) and were published during the last 2 decades (81.89%). The cohort's average age was 32.5 years (standard deviation, 20.2) with a gender split of ∼3 males per female. Almost 90% of subjects were diagnosed with traumatic brain injury, with road traffic accidents (68.6%) being the greatest cause. Altered consciousness (48.4%) was the most commonly reported clinical feature. Computed tomography (53.5%) was the most commonly used imaging modality, with skull (25.7%) and vertebral fracture (14.1%) being the most common radiological findings for traumatic brain injury and traumatic spinal injury, respectively. Two-thirds of patients were treated nonoperatively. Outcomes were favorable in 63.7% of traumatic brain injury patients, but in only 20.9% of traumatic spinal injury patients. Pressure sores, infection, and motor deficits were the most commonly reported complications in the latter. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic review and pooled analysis demonstrate the significant burden of neurotrauma across Nigeria.

Risk chain identification of single-vehicle accidents considering multi-risk factors coupling effect.

The real-time monitoring on the risk status of the vehicle and its driver can provide the assistance for the early detection and blocking control of single-vehicle accidents. However, complex risk coupling relationship is one of the main features of single-vehicle accidents with high mortality rate. On the basis of investigating the coupling effect among multi-risk factors and establishing a safety management database throughout the life cycle of vehicles, single-vehicle driving risk network (SVDRN) with a three-level threshold was developed, and its topology features were analyzed to assessment the importance of nodes. To avoid the one-sidedness of single indicator, the multi-attribute comprehensive evaluation model was applied to measure the comprehensive effect of characteristic indicators for nodes importance. A algorithm for real-time monitoring of vehicle driving risk status was proposed to identify key risk chains. The result revealed that improper operation, speeding, loss of vehicle control and inefficient driver management were the sequence of top four risk factors in the comprehensive evaluation result of nodes importance (mean value = 0.185, SD = 0.119). There were minor differences of 0.017 in the node importance among environmental factors, among which non-standard road alignment had the larger value. The improper operation and non-standard road alignment were the highest combination correlation of factors affecting road safety, with the support of 51.81% and the confidence of 69.35%. This identification algorithm of key risk chains that combines node importance and its risk state threshold can effectively determine the high-frequency risk transmission paths and risk factors through multi-vehicle test, providing a basis for centralization management of transport enterprises.

Prevalence of motorcycle accidents among food delivery drivers and its relation to knowledge, attitudes, and practices in urban areas in Bangkok, Thailand.

Food delivery drivers are at increased risk of motorcycle accidents every year. This study investigated the prevalence of motorcycle accidents among food delivery drivers related to the knowledge, attitudes, and practices in urban areas in Bangkok, Thailand. This was a cross-sectional online survey on motorcycle accidents was distributed among food delivery drivers in urban areas in Bangkok, Thailand from February-March 2023. The study involved 809 participants aged 18 years. A binary logistic regression was conducted to test the association between variable factors and motorcycle accidents, and a Spearman's analysis was employed to test the correlations between motorcycle accidents and knowledge, attitude, and practice scores. The study found the prevalence of accidents associated with food delivery drivers was 284 (35.1%). The results of the binary logistic regression analysis found that those who drive on an average of more than 16 rounds per day were significantly associated with motorcycle accidents (OR = 2.128, 95%CI 1.503-3.013), and those who had followed improper driving practices were significantly associated with motorcycle accidents (OR = 1.754, 95%CI 1.117-2.752). The correlation analysis found the knowledge score positive significantly with the practice score (r = 0.269, p-value < 0.01) and the attitudes score positive significantly with the practice score (r = 0.436, p-value < 0.01). This study shows the knowledge level correlated with the practice score regarding such accidents. Therefore, our study needs more longitudinal study to identify which variable factors influence motorcycle accidents among FDDs. The current study suggests that the management of traffic safety on urban roads is significantly affected by food delivery services. Thus, this study can be used as baseline data to devise systematic measures to prevent motorcycle crashes of food deivery workers.

Predicting black ice-related accidents with probabilistic modeling using GIS-based Monte Carlo simulation.

Black ice, a phenomenon that occurs abruptly owing to freezing rain, is difficult for drivers to identify because it mirrors the color of the road. Effectively managing the occurrence of unforeseen accidents caused by black ice requires predicting their probability using spatial, weather, and traffic factors and formulating appropriate countermeasures. Among these factors, weather and traffic exhibit the highest levels of uncertainty. To address these uncertainties, a study was conducted using a Monte Carlo simulation based on random values to predict the probability of black ice accidents at individual road points and analyze their trigger factors. We numerically modeled black ice accidents and visualized the simulation results in a geographical information system (GIS) by employing a sensitivity analysis, another feature of Monte Carlo simulations, to analyze the factors that trigger black ice accidents. The Monte Carlo simulation allowed us to map black ice accident occurrences at each road point on the GIS. The average black ice accident probability was found to be 0.0058, with a standard deviation of 0.001. Sensitivity analysis using Monte Carlo simulations identified wind speed, air temperature, and angle as significant triggers of black ice accidents, with sensitivities of 0.354, 0.270, and 0.203, respectively. We predicted the probability of black ice accidents per road section and analyzed the primary triggers of black ice accidents. The scientific contribution of this study lies in the development of a method beyond simple road temperature predictions for evaluating the risk of black ice occurrences and subsequent accidents. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, the probability of black ice accidents can be predicted more accurately through decoupling meteorological and traffic factors over time. The results can serve as a reference for government agencies, including road traffic authorities, to identify accident-prone spots and devise strategies focused on the primary triggers of black ice accidents.

[Prevalence and predictors of post-traumatic stress disorder in road traffic accidents]. / Prévalence et facteurs prédicteurs des troubles post-traumatiques chez les accidentés de la voie publique.

Introduction: trauma-related disorders following a road accident have both a health and an economic impact. Methods: we conducted a prospective study to determine the prevalence of these disorders, and to identify risk factors in subjects victims of road accidents and hospitalized in the Department of Orthopedic Surgery and Traumatology of the University Hospital Center of Sfax-Tunisia. Results: a total of sixty-ten subjects were included in this study. The prevalence of acute stress disorder was 37.1% and was associated with female sex, low educational level, previous medical and surgical history, passivity during the accident, severity of injuries and the presence of anxious and depressive symptoms. Post-traumatic stress disorder was observed in 40% of subjects and was associated with urban residential environment, passivity during the accident and anxious and depressive symptoms. Low scores for functional coping strategies and high scores for dysfunctional coping strategies were significantly associated with both disorders. Low educational level, urban residential environment, high levels of anxiety and depression, and denial coping strategy appear to be independent risk factors for acute stress and post-traumatic stress disorder. Conclusion: It is therefore important to determine the profile of people at greater risk of post-traumatic stress disorder, to enable early diagnosis in victims of road accidents.

Analysis of factors influencing the degree of accidental injury of bicycle riders considering data heterogeneity and imbalance.

Bicycle safety has emerged as a pressing concern within the vulnerable transportation community. Numerous studies have been conducted to identify the significant factors that contribute to the severity of cyclist injuries, yet the findings have been subject to uncertainty due to unobserved heterogeneity and class imbalance. This research aims to address these issues by developing a model to examine the impact of key factors on cyclist injury severity, accounting for data heterogeneity and imbalance. To incorporate unobserved heterogeneity, a total of 3,895 bicycle accidents were categorized into three homogeneous sub-accident clusters using Latent Class Cluster Analysis (LCA). Additionally, five over-sampling techniques were employed to mitigate the effects of data imbalance in each accident cluster category. Subsequently, Bayesian Network (BN) structure learning algorithms were utilized to construct 32 BN models after pairing the accident data from the four accident cluster types before and after sampling. The optimal BN models for each accident cluster type provided insights into the key factors associated with cyclist injury severity. The results indicate that the key factors influencing serious cyclist injuries vary heterogeneously across different accident clusters. Female cyclists, adverse weather conditions such as rain and snow, and off-peak periods were identified as key factors in several subclasses of accident clusters. Conversely, factors such as the week of the accident, characteristics of the trafficway, the season, drivers failing to yield to the right-of-way, distracted cyclists, and years of driving experience were found to be key factors in only one subcluster of accident clusters. Additionally, factors such as the time of the crash, gender of the cyclist, and weather conditions exhibit varying levels of heterogeneity across different accident clusters, and in some cases, exhibit opposing effects.

Real-time crash prediction on express managed lanes of Interstate highway with anomaly detection learning.

To facilitate efficient transportation, I-4 Express is constructed separately from general use lanes in metropolitan area to improve mobility and reduce congestion. As this new infrastructure would undoubtedly change the traffic network, there is a need for more understanding of its potential safety impact. Unfortunately, many advanced real-time crash prediction models encounter an important challenge in their applicability due to their demand for a substantial volume of data for direct modeling. To tackle this challenge, we proposed a simple yet effective approach - anomaly detection learning, which formulates model as an anomaly detection problem, solves it through normality feature recognition, and predicts crashes by identifying deviations from the normal state. The proposed approach demonstrates significant improvement in the Area Under the Curve (AUC), sensitivity, and False Alarm Rate (FAR). When juxtaposed with the prevalent direct classification paradigm, our proposed anomaly detection learning (ADL) consistently outperforms in AUC (with an increase of up to 45%), sensitivity (experiencing up to a 45% increase), and FAR (reducing by up to 0.53). The most performance gain is attained through the combination of Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) in an ensemble, resulting in a 0.78 AUC, 0.79 sensitivity, and a 0.22 false alarm rate. Furthermore, we analyzed model features with a game-theoretic approach illustrating the most correlated features for accurate prediction, revealing the attention of advanced convolution neural networks to occupancy features. This provided crucial insights into improving crash precaution, the findings from which not only benefit private stakeholders but also extend a promising opportunity for governmental intervention on the express lane. This work could promote express lane with more efficient resource allocation, real-time traffic management optimization, and high-risk area prioritization.

Investigating built environment and traffic flow impact on crash frequency in urban road networks.

While numerous studies have examined the factors that influence crash occurrence, there remains a gap in understanding the intricate relationship between built environment, traffic flow, and crash occurrences across different spatial units. This study explores how built environment attributes, and dynamic traffic flow characteristics affect crash frequency by focusing on proposed traffic density-based zones (TDZs). Utilizing a comprehensive dataset from Greater Melbourne, Australia, this research emphasizes on the dynamic traffic flow variables and insights from the Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram model, considering parameters such as shockwave velocity and congestion index. The association between the potential influencing factors and crash frequency is examined using a random parameter negative binomial regression model. Results indicate that the data segmentation based on TDZs is instrumental in establishing a more refined crash model compared to traditional planning-based zones, as demonstrated by improved goodness-of-fit measures. Factors including density (e.g., employment density), network design (e.g., road density and highway density), land use diversity (e.g., job-housing balance and land use mixture), and public transit accessibility (e.g., bus route density) are significantly associated with crash occurrence. Furthermore, the unobserved heterogeneity effects of the shockwave velocity and congestion index on crashes are revealed. The study highlights the significance of incorporating dynamic traffic flow variables in understanding crash frequency variations across different spatial units. These findings can inform optimal real-time traffic monitoring, environmental design, and road safety management strategies to mitigate crash risks.

Assessing the predictability of surrogate safety measures as crash precursors based on vehicle trajectory data prior to crashes.

This study aims to investigate the predictability of surrogate safety measures (SSMs) for real-time crash risk prediction. We conducted a year-long drone video collection on a busy freeway in Nanjing, China, and collected 20 rear-end crashes. The predictability of SSMs was defined as the probability of crash occurrence when using SSMs as precursors to crashes. Ridge regression models were established to explore contributing factors to the predictability of SSMs. Four commonly used SSMs were tested in this study. It was found that modified time-to-collision (MTTC) outperformed other SSMs when the early warning capability was set at a minimum of 1 s. We further investigated the cost and benefit of SSMs in safety interventions by evaluating the number of necessary predictions for successful crash prediction and the proportion of crashes that can be predicted accurately. The result demonstrated these SSMs were most efficient in proactive safety management systems with an early warning capability of 1 s. In this case, 308, 131, 281, and 327,661 predictions needed to be made before a crash could be successfully predicted by TTC, MTTC, DRAC, and PICUD, respectively, achieving 75 %, 85 %, 35 %, and 100 % successful crash identifications. The ridge regression results indicated that the predefined threshold had the greatest impact on the predictability of all tested SSMs.

Effects of executive load on crashes and near-crashes for young versus older drivers.

With the increasing use of infotainment systems in vehicles, secondary tasks requiring executive demand may increase crash risk, especially for young drivers. Naturalistic driving data were examined to determine if secondary tasks with increasing executive demand would result in increasing crash risk. Data were extracted from the Second Strategic Highway Research Program Naturalistic Driving Study, where vehicles were instrumented to record driving behavior and crash/near-crash data. executive and visual-manual tasks paired with a second executive task (also referred to as dual executive tasks) were compared to the executive and visual-manual tasks performed alone. Crash/near-crash odds ratios were computed by comparing each task condition to driving without the presence of any secondary task. Dual executive tasks resulted in greater odds ratios than those for single executive tasks. The dual visual-manual task odds ratios did not increase from single task odds ratios. These effects were only found in young drivers. The study shows that dual executive secondary task load increases crash/near-crash risk in dual task situations for young drivers. Future research should be conducted to minimize task load associated with vehicle infotainment systems that use such technologies as voice commands.

How would autonomous vehicles behave in real-world crash scenarios?

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) have the potential to revolutionize transportation systems by enhancing traffic safety. Safety testing is undoubtedly a critical step for enabling large-scale deployment of AVs. High-risk scenarios are particularly important as they pose significant challenges and provide valuable insights into the driving capabilities of AVs. This study presents a novel approach to assess the safety of AVs using in-depth crash data, with a particular focus on real-world crash scenarios. First, based on the high-definition video recording of the whole process prior to the crash occurrences, 453 real-world crashes involving 596 passenger cars from China In-depth Mobility Safety Study-Traffic Accident (CIMSS-TA) database were reconstructed. Pertinent static and dynamic elements needed for the construction of the testing scenarios were extracted. Subsequently, 596 testing scenarios were created via each passenger car's perspective within the simulation platform. Following this, each of the crash-involved passenger cars was replaced with Baidu Apollo, a famous automated driving system (ADS), for counterfactual simulation. Lastly, the safety performance of the AV was assessed using the simulation results. A logit model was utilized to identify the fifteen crucial scenario elements that have significant impacts on the test results. The findings demonstrated that the AV could avoid 363 real-world crashes, accounting for approximately 60.91% of the total, and effectively mitigated injuries in the remaining 233 unavoidable scenarios compared to a human driver. Moreover, the AV maintain a smoother speed in most of the scenarios. The common feature of these unavoidable scenarios is that the AV is in a passive state, and the crashes are not caused by the AV violating traffic rules, but rather caused by abnormal behavior exhibited by the human drivers. Additionally, seven specific scenarios have been identified wherein AVs are unable to avoid a crash. These findings demonstrate that, compared to human drivers, AVs can avoid crashes that are difficult for humans to avoid, thereby enhancing traffic safety.

Trajectories of health-related quality of life following road trauma: Latent growth mixture modeling across a 12-month cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) should be considered when evaluating the burden of road trauma (RT) injuries. This study aimed to identify distinct HRQoL trajectories following minor to severe RT injury and determine characteristics of trajectory membership. METHODS: This prospective inception cohort study recruited 1480 RT survivors from three emergency departments in British Columbia, Canada (July 2018 - March 2020). HRQoL outcome was measured with the Short Form 12 survey (SF-12) and the 5-level version of the EuroQol instrument (EQ-5D-5L) at baseline (pre-injury) and at 2, 4, 6, and 12 months post-injury. Potential predictors of outcome trajectory included sociodemographic, psychological, medical, crash, and injury factors collected at baseline. We used a latent growth mixture model to identify distinct recovery trajectories and multinomial logistic regression to determine predictors of trajectory membership. RESULTS: Three distinct HRQoL trajectories were identified for SF-12 subscales and EQ-5D-5L measures: Low/Moderate-Stable, High-Large decline, and High-Slight decline. Participants in the Low/Moderate-Stable trajectory had persistent low to moderate HRQoL before and after the injury. Those in the High-Large decline trajectory had good pre-injury HRQoL followed by persistently decreased HRQoL afterwards. The High-Slight decline trajectory was characterized by good pre-injury HRQoL and only a slight decline afterwards. Participants in the Low/Moderate-Stable and High-Large decline trajectories were considered at risk of permanently poor HRQoL following RT injury given their low HRQoL over a long period of time. Characteristics that placed participants in the Low/Moderate-Stable trajectory were older age, female gender, poor pre-injury health (medical comorbidity, prescribed medication use, complaints in the injured body area(s)), pre-injury somatic symptoms, pain catastrophizing or psychological distress, injury severity (ISS) and injury pain. Patients with head injury were less likely to be in the Low/Moderate-Stable trajectory. Risk factors for membership in the High-Large decline trajectory included older age (for physical HRQoL), younger age (for mental HRQoL), female gender, living alone, pre-injury psychological distress, ISS, injury pain, no expectations for a fast recovery, as well as head injuries, spine/back injuries or lower extremity injuries. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlighted the heterogeneity of HRQoL trajectories following RT injury and the importance of considering differences between characteristics of survivors. In addition to injury type and severity, outcome is related to demographic factors, pre-injury health and pre-injury psychological factors.

Safety performance of dedicated and preferential bus lanes using multivariate negative binomial models for Bogotá, Colombia.

Public transport priority systems such as Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Buses with High Level of Service (BHLS) are top-rated solutions to mobility in low-income and middle-income cities. There is scientific agreement that the safety performance level of these systems depends on their functional, operational, and infrastructure characteristics. However, there needs to be more evidence on how the different characteristics of bus corridors might influence safety. This paper aims to shed some light on this area by structuring a multivariate negative binomial model comparing crash risk on arterial roads, BRT, and BHLS corridors in Bogotá, Colombia. The analyzed infrastructure includes 712.1 km of arterial roads with standard bus service, 194.1 km of BRT network, and 135.6 km of BHLS network. The study considered crashes from 2015 to 2018 -fatalities, injuries, and property damage only- and 30 operational and infrastructure variables grouped into six classes -exposure, road design, infrastructure, public means of transport, and land use. A multicriteria process was applied for model selection, including the structure and predictive power based on [i] Akaike information criteria, [ii] K-fold cross-validation, and [iii] model parsimony. Relevant findings suggest that in terms of observed and expected accident rates and their relationship with the magnitude of exposure -logarithm of average annual traffic volumes at the peak hour (LOG_AAPHT) and the percentage of motorcycles, cars, buses, and trucks- the greatest risk of fatalities, injuries, and property damage occurs in the BHLS network. BRT network provides lower crash rates in less severe collisions while increasing injuries and fatalities. When comparing the BHLS network and the standard design of arterial roads, BHLS infrastructure, despite increasing mobility benefits, provides the lowest safety performance among the three analyzed networks. Individual factors of the study could also contribute to designing safer roads related to signalized intersection density and curvature. These findings support the unique characteristics and traffic dynamics present in the context of Bogotá that could inform and guide decisions of corresponding authorities in other highly dense urban areas from developing countries.