Geographical migration and fitness dynamics of Streptococcus pneumoniae.

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a leading cause of pneumonia and meningitis worldwide. Many different serotypes co-circulate endemically in any one location1,2. The extent and mechanisms of spread and vaccine-driven changes in fitness and antimicrobial resistance remain largely unquantified. Here using geolocated genome sequences from South Africa (n = 6,910, collected from 2000 to 2014), we developed models to reconstruct spread, pairing detailed human mobility data and genomic data. Separately, we estimated the population-level changes in fitness of strains that are included (vaccine type (VT)) and not included (non-vaccine type (NVT)) in pneumococcal conjugate vaccines, first implemented in South Africa in 2009. Differences in strain fitness between those that are and are not resistant to penicillin were also evaluated. We found that pneumococci only become homogenously mixed across South Africa after 50 years of transmission, with the slow spread driven by the focal nature of human mobility. Furthermore, in the years following vaccine implementation, the relative fitness of NVT compared with VT strains increased (relative risk of 1.68; 95% confidence interval of 1.59-1.77), with an increasing proportion of these NVT strains becoming resistant to penicillin. Our findings point to highly entrenched, slow transmission and indicate that initial vaccine-linked decreases in antimicrobial resistance may be transient.

Fitness Landscapes and Evolution of Catalytic RNA.

The relationship between genotype and phenotype, or the fitness landscape, is the foundation of genetic engineering and evolution. However, mapping fitness landscapes poses a major technical challenge due to the amount of quantifiable data that is required. Catalytic RNA is a special topic in the study of fitness landscapes due to its relatively small sequence space combined with its importance in synthetic biology. The combination of in vitro selection and high-throughput sequencing has recently provided empirical maps of both complete and local RNA fitness landscapes, but the astronomical size of sequence space limits purely experimental investigations. Next steps are likely to involve data-driven interpolation and extrapolation over sequence space using various machine learning techniques. We discuss recent progress in understanding RNA fitness landscapes, particularly with respect to protocells and machine representations of RNA. The confluence of technical advances may significantly impact synthetic biology in the near future.

Spike deep mutational scanning helps predict success of SARS-CoV-2 clades.

SARS-CoV-2 variants acquire mutations in the spike protein that promote immune evasion1 and affect other properties that contribute to viral fitness, such as ACE2 receptor binding and cell entry2,3. Knowledge of how mutations affect these spike phenotypes can provide insight into the current and potential future evolution of the virus. Here we use pseudovirus deep mutational scanning4 to measure how more than 9,000 mutations across the full XBB.1.5 and BA.2 spikes affect ACE2 binding, cell entry or escape from human sera. We find that mutations outside the receptor-binding domain (RBD) have meaningfully affected ACE2 binding during SARS-CoV-2 evolution. We also measure how mutations to the XBB.1.5 spike affect neutralization by serum from individuals who recently had SARS-CoV-2 infections. The strongest serum escape mutations are in the RBD at sites 357, 420, 440, 456 and 473; however, the antigenic effects of these mutations vary across individuals. We also identify strong escape mutations outside the RBD; however, many of them decrease ACE2 binding, suggesting they act by modulating RBD conformation. Notably, the growth rates of human SARS-CoV-2 clades can be explained in substantial part by the measured effects of mutations on spike phenotypes, suggesting our data could enable better prediction of viral evolution.

The role of epistasis in evolutionary rescue.

The process by which adaptive evolution preserves a population threatened with extinction due to environmental changes is known as evolutionary rescue. Several factors determine the fate of those populations, including demography and genetic factors, such as standing genetic variation, gene flow, availability of de novo mutations, and so on. Despite the extensive debate about evolutionary rescue in the current literature, a study about the role of epistasis and the topography of the fitness landscape on the fate of dwindling populations is missing. In the current work, we aim to fill this gap and study the influence of epistasis on the probability of extinction of populations. We present simulation results, and analytical approximations are derived. Counterintuitively, we show that the likelihood of extinction is smaller when the degree of epistasis is higher. The reason underneath is twofold: first, higher epistasis can promote mutations of more significant phenotypic effects, but also, the incongruence between the maps genotype-phenotype and phenotype-fitness turns the fitness landscape at low epistasis more rugged, thus curbing some of its advantages.

Inference of annealed protein fitness landscapes with AnnealDCA.

The design of proteins with specific tasks is a major challenge in molecular biology with important diagnostic and therapeutic applications. High-throughput screening methods have been developed to systematically evaluate protein activity, but only a small fraction of possible protein variants can be tested using these techniques. Computational models that explore the sequence space in-silico to identify the fittest molecules for a given function are needed to overcome this limitation. In this article, we propose AnnealDCA, a machine-learning framework to learn the protein fitness landscape from sequencing data derived from a broad range of experiments that use selection and sequencing to quantify protein activity. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method by applying it to antibody Rep-Seq data of immunized mice and screening experiments, assessing the quality of the fitness landscape reconstructions. Our method can be applied to several experimental cases where a population of protein variants undergoes various rounds of selection and sequencing, without relying on the computation of variants enrichment ratios, and thus can be used even in cases of disjoint sequence samples.

Unraveling the dynamics of hepatitis C virus adaptive mutations and their impact on antiviral responses in primary human hepatocytes.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection progresses to chronicity in the majority of infected individuals. Its high intra-host genetic variability enables HCV to evade the continuous selection pressure exerted by the host, contributing to persistent infection. Utilizing a cell culture-adapted HCV population (p100pop) which exhibits increased replicative capacity in various liver cell lines, this study investigated virus and host determinants that underlie enhanced viral fitness. Characterization of a panel of molecular p100 clones revealed that cell culture adaptive mutations optimize a range of virus-host interactions, resulting in expanded cell tropism, altered dependence on the cellular co-factor micro-RNA 122 and increased rates of virus spread. On the host side, comparative transcriptional profiling of hepatoma cells infected either with p100pop or its progenitor virus revealed that enhanced replicative fitness correlated with activation of endoplasmic reticulum stress signaling and the unfolded protein response. In contrast, infection of primary human hepatocytes with p100pop led to a mild attenuation of virion production which correlated with a greater induction of cell-intrinsic antiviral defense responses. In summary, long-term passage experiments in cells where selective pressure from innate immunity is lacking improves multiple virus-host interactions, enhancing HCV replicative fitness. However, this study further indicates that HCV has evolved to replicate at low levels in primary human hepatocytes to minimize innate immune activation, highlighting that an optimal balance between replicative fitness and innate immune induction is key to establish persistence. IMPORTANCE: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection remains a global health burden with 58 million people currently chronically infected. However, the detailed molecular mechanisms that underly persistence are incompletely defined. We utilized a long-term cell culture-adapted HCV, exhibiting enhanced replicative fitness in different human liver cell lines, in order to identify molecular principles by which HCV optimizes its replication fitness. Our experimental data revealed that cell culture adaptive mutations confer changes in the host response and usage of various host factors. The latter allows functional flexibility at different stages of the viral replication cycle. However, increased replicative fitness resulted in an increased activation of the innate immune system, which likely poses boundary for functional variation in authentic hepatocytes, explaining the observed attenuation of the adapted virus population in primary hepatocytes.

Gain without pain: adaptation and increased virulence of Zika virus in vertebrate host without fitness cost in mosquito vector.

IMPORTANCE: Previously, we modeled direct transmission chains of Zika virus (ZIKV) by serially passaging ZIKV in mice and mosquitoes and found that direct mouse transmission chains selected for viruses with increased virulence in mice and the acquisition of non-synonymous amino acid substitutions. Here, we show that these same mouse-passaged viruses also maintain fitness and transmission capacity in mosquitoes. We used infectious clone-derived viruses to demonstrate that the substitution in nonstructural protein 4A contributes to increased virulence in mice.

Infer global, predict local: Quantity-relevance trade-off in protein fitness predictions from sequence data.

Predicting the effects of mutations on protein function is an important issue in evolutionary biology and biomedical applications. Computational approaches, ranging from graphical models to deep-learning architectures, can capture the statistical properties of sequence data and predict the outcome of high-throughput mutagenesis experiments probing the fitness landscape around some wild-type protein. However, how the complexity of the models and the characteristics of the data combine to determine the predictive performance remains unclear. Here, based on a theoretical analysis of the prediction error, we propose descriptors of the sequence data, characterizing their quantity and relevance relative to the model. Our theoretical framework identifies a trade-off between these two quantities, and determines the optimal subset of data for the prediction task, showing that simple models can outperform complex ones when inferred from adequately-selected sequences. We also show how repeated subsampling of the sequence data is informative about how much epistasis in the fitness landscape is not captured by the computational model. Our approach is illustrated on several protein families, as well as on in silico solvable protein models.

Inferring protein fitness landscapes from laboratory evolution experiments.

Directed laboratory evolution applies iterative rounds of mutation and selection to explore the protein fitness landscape and provides rich information regarding the underlying relationships between protein sequence, structure, and function. Laboratory evolution data consist of protein sequences sampled from evolving populations over multiple generations and this data type does not fit into established supervised and unsupervised machine learning approaches. We develop a statistical learning framework that models the evolutionary process and can infer the protein fitness landscape from multiple snapshots along an evolutionary trajectory. We apply our modeling approach to dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) laboratory evolution data and the resulting landscape parameters capture important aspects of DHFR structure and function. We use the resulting model to understand the structure of the fitness landscape and find numerous examples of epistasis but an overall global peak that is evolutionarily accessible from most starting sequences. Finally, we use the model to perform an in silico extrapolation of the DHFR laboratory evolution trajectory and computationally design proteins from future evolutionary rounds.

Silence of the mutations.

A major presumption of the neutral theory of evolution proposed by Kimura in the late 1960s is that synonymous mutations (mutations that do not alter the primary sequence of a protein due to the redundancy of the genetic code) are supposed to be selectively neutral or nearly neutral (Kimura 1968). However, Shen et al. (2022) have recently demonstrated that 75.9% of synonymous mutations in genes involved in important cellular functions in the haploid yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae show reduced fitness in different environments examined. Based on their analyses of fitness effects in different growth conditions, the authors argue that non-synonymous mutants show a more significant fitness variation across growth environments compared with synonymous mutants, although the two mutant classes have similar patterns of fitness susceptibility in the same environment. They propose that a larger proportion of synonymous mutants reach fixation compared with their non-synonymous counterparts because more of them survive environmental challenges. In this Clipboard article, I examine the evidence provided by the authors to evaluate whether their evidence is sufficient to substantiate this claim and explore possible consequences of these observations.

Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 isolates in rodents.

The BA.2 sublineage of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has become dominant in most countries around the world; however, the prevalence of BA.4 and BA.5 is increasing rapidly in several regions. BA.2 is less pathogenic in animal models than previously circulating variants of concern1-4. Compared with BA.2, however, BA.4 and BA.5 possess additional substitutions in the spike protein, which play a key role in viral entry, raising concerns that the replication capacity and pathogenicity of BA.4 and BA.5 are higher than those of BA.2. Here we have evaluated the replicative ability and pathogenicity of BA.4 and BA.5 isolates in wild-type Syrian hamsters, human ACE2 (hACE2) transgenic hamsters and hACE2 transgenic mice. We have observed no obvious differences among BA.2, BA.4 and BA.5 isolates in growth ability or pathogenicity in rodent models, and less pathogenicity compared to a previously circulating Delta (B.1.617.2 lineage) isolate. In addition, in vivo competition experiments revealed that BA.5 outcompeted BA.2 in hamsters, whereas BA.4 and BA.2 exhibited similar fitness. These findings suggest that BA.4 and BA.5 clinical isolates have similar pathogenicity to BA.2 in rodents and that BA.5 possesses viral fitness superior to that of BA.2.

Getting higher on rugged landscapes: Inversion mutations open access to fitter adaptive peaks in NK fitness landscapes.

Molecular evolution is often conceptualised as adaptive walks on rugged fitness landscapes, driven by mutations and constrained by incremental fitness selection. It is well known that epistasis shapes the ruggedness of the landscape's surface, outlining their topography (with high-fitness peaks separated by valleys of lower fitness genotypes). However, within the strong selection weak mutation (SSWM) limit, once an adaptive walk reaches a local peak, natural selection restricts passage through downstream paths and hampers any possibility of reaching higher fitness values. Here, in addition to the widely used point mutations, we introduce a minimal model of sequence inversions to simulate adaptive walks. We use the well known NK model to instantiate rugged landscapes. We show that adaptive walks can reach higher fitness values through inversion mutations, which, compared to point mutations, allows the evolutionary process to escape local fitness peaks. To elucidate the effects of this chromosomal rearrangement, we use a graph-theoretical representation of accessible mutants and show how new evolutionary paths are uncovered. The present model suggests a simple mechanistic rationale to analyse escapes from local fitness peaks in molecular evolution driven by (intragenic) structural inversions and reveals some consequences of the limits of point mutations for simulations of molecular evolution.

On the incongruence of genotype-phenotype and fitness landscapes.

The mapping from genotype to phenotype to fitness typically involves multiple nonlinearities that can transform the effects of mutations. For example, mutations may contribute additively to a phenotype, but their effects on fitness may combine non-additively because selection favors a low or intermediate value of that phenotype. This can cause incongruence between the topographical properties of a fitness landscape and its underlying genotype-phenotype landscape. Yet, genotype-phenotype landscapes are often used as a proxy for fitness landscapes to study the dynamics and predictability of evolution. Here, we use theoretical models and empirical data on transcription factor-DNA interactions to systematically study the incongruence of genotype-phenotype and fitness landscapes when selection favors a low or intermediate phenotypic value. Using the theoretical models, we prove a number of fundamental results. For example, selection for low or intermediate phenotypic values does not change simple sign epistasis into reciprocal sign epistasis, implying that genotype-phenotype landscapes with only simple sign epistasis motifs will always give rise to single-peaked fitness landscapes under such selection. More broadly, we show that such selection tends to create fitness landscapes that are more rugged than the underlying genotype-phenotype landscape, but this increased ruggedness typically does not frustrate adaptive evolution because the local adaptive peaks in the fitness landscape tend to be nearly as tall as the global peak. Many of these results carry forward to the empirical genotype-phenotype landscapes, which may help to explain why low- and intermediate-affinity transcription factor-DNA interactions are so prevalent in eukaryotic gene regulation.

Predicting Permissive Mutations That Improve the Fitness of A(H1N1)pdm09 Viruses Bearing the H275Y Neuraminidase Substitution.

Oseltamivir-resistant influenza viruses arise due to amino acid mutations in key residues of the viral neuraminidase (NA). These changes often come at a fitness cost; however, it is known that permissive mutations in the viral NA can overcome this cost. This result was observed in former seasonal A(H1N1) viruses in 2007 which expressed the H275Y substitution (N1 numbering) with no apparent fitness cost and lead to widespread oseltamivir resistance. Therefore, this study aims to predict permissive mutations that may similarly enable fit H275Y variants to arise in currently circulating A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. The first approach in this study utilized in silico analyses to predict potentially permissive mutations. The second approach involved the generation of a virus library which encompassed all possible NA mutations while keeping H275Y fixed. Fit variants were then selected by serially passaging the virus library either through ferrets by transmission or passaging once in vitro. The fitness impact of selected substitutions was further evaluated experimentally. The computational approach predicted three candidate permissive NA mutations which, in combination with each other, restored the replicative fitness of an H275Y variant. The second approach identified a stringent bottleneck during transmission between ferrets; however, three further substitutions were identified which may improve transmissibility. A comparison of fit H275Y variants in vitro and in experimentally infected animals showed a statistically significant correlation in the variants that were positively selected. Overall, this study provides valuable tools and insights into potential permissive mutations that may facilitate the emergence of a fit H275Y A(H1N1)pdm09 variant. IMPORTANCE Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) is the most widely used antiviral for the treatment of influenza infections. Therefore, resistance to oseltamivir is a public health concern. This study is important as it explores the different evolutionary pathways available to current circulating influenza viruses that may lead to widespread oseltamivir resistance. Specifically, this study develops valuable experimental and computational tools to evaluate the fitness landscape of circulating A(H1N1)pmd09 influenza viruses bearing the H275Y mutation. The H275Y substitution is most commonly reported to confer oseltamivir resistance but also leads to loss of virus replication and transmission fitness, which limits its spread. However, it is known from previous influenza seasons that influenza viruses can evolve to overcome this loss of fitness. Therefore, this study aims to prospectively predict how contemporary A(H1N1)pmd09 influenza viruses may evolve to overcome the fitness cost of bearing the H275Y NA substitution, which could result in widespread oseltamivir resistance.

Synonymous mutations in representative yeast genes are mostly strongly non-neutral.

Synonymous mutations in protein-coding genes do not alter protein sequences and are thus generally presumed to be neutral or nearly neutral1-5. Here, to experimentally verify this presumption, we constructed 8,341 yeast mutants each carrying a synonymous, nonsynonymous or nonsense mutation in one of 21 endogenous genes with diverse functions and expression levels and measured their fitness relative to the wild type in a rich medium. Three-quarters of synonymous mutations resulted in a significant reduction in fitness, and the distribution of fitness effects was overall similar-albeit nonidentical-between synonymous and nonsynonymous mutations. Both synonymous and nonsynonymous mutations frequently disturbed the level of mRNA expression of the mutated gene, and the extent of the disturbance partially predicted the fitness effect. Investigations in additional environments revealed greater across-environment fitness variations for nonsynonymous mutants than for synonymous mutants despite their similar fitness distributions in each environment, suggesting that a smaller proportion of nonsynonymous mutants than synonymous mutants are always non-deleterious in a changing environment to permit fixation, potentially explaining the common observation of substantially lower nonsynonymous than synonymous substitution rates. The strong non-neutrality of most synonymous mutations, if it holds true for other genes and in other organisms, would require re-examination of numerous biological conclusions about mutation, selection, effective population size, divergence time and disease mechanisms that rely on the assumption that synoymous mutations are neutral.

Modelling the fitness landscapes of a SCRaMbLEd yeast genome.

The use of microorganisms for the production of industrially important compounds and enzymes is becoming increasingly important. Eukaryotes have been less widely used than prokaryotes in biotechnology, because of the complexity of their genomic structure and biology. The Yeast2.0 project is an international effort to engineer the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae to make it easy to manipulate, and to generate random variants using a system called SCRaMbLE. SCRaMbLE relies on artificial evolution in vitro to identify useful variants, an approach which is time consuming and expensive. We developed an in silico simulator for the SCRaMbLE system, using an evolutionary computing approach, which can be used to investigate and optimize the fitness landscape of the system. We applied the system to the investigation of the fitness landscape of one of the S. saccharomyces chromosomes, and found that our results fitted well with those previously published. We then simulated directed evolution with or without manipulation of SCRaMbLE, and revealed that controlling the SCRaMbLE process could effectively impact directed evolution. Our simulator can be applied to the analysis of the fitness landscapes of any organism for which SCRaMbLE has been implemented.

Forecasting emergence of COVID-19 variants of concern.

We consider whether one can forecast the emergence of variants of concern in the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak and similar pandemics. We explore methods of population genetics and identify key relevant principles in both deterministic and stochastic models of spread of infectious disease. Finally, we demonstrate that fitness variation, defined as a trait for which an increase in its value is associated with an increase in net Darwinian fitness if the value of other traits are held constant, is a strong indicator of imminent transition in the viral population.

Evolution enhances mutational robustness and suppresses the emergence of a new phenotype: A new computational approach for studying evolution.

The aim of this paper is two-fold. First, we propose a new computational method to investigate the particularities of evolution. Second, we apply this method to a model of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) and explore the evolution of mutational robustness and bistability. Living systems have developed their functions through evolutionary processes. To understand the particularities of this process theoretically, evolutionary simulation (ES) alone is insufficient because the outcomes of ES depend on evolutionary pathways. We need a reference system for comparison. An appropriate reference system for this purpose is an ensemble of the randomly sampled genotypes. However, generating high-fitness genotypes by simple random sampling is difficult because such genotypes are rare. In this study, we used the multicanonical Monte Carlo method developed in statistical physics to construct a reference ensemble of GRNs and compared it with the outcomes of ES. We obtained the following results. First, mutational robustness was significantly higher in ES than in the reference ensemble at the same fitness level. Second, the emergence of a new phenotype, bistability, was delayed in evolution. Third, the bistable group of GRNs contains many mutationally fragile GRNs compared with those in the non-bistable group. This suggests that the delayed emergence of bistability is a consequence of the mutation-selection mechanism.

The evolutionary maintenance of Lévy flight foraging.

Lévy flight is a type of random walk that characterizes the behaviour of many natural phenomena studied across a multiplicity of academic disciplines; within biology specifically, the behaviour of fish, birds, insects, mollusks, bacteria, plants, slime molds, t-cells, and human populations. The Lévy flight foraging hypothesis states that because Lévy flights can maximize an organism's search efficiency, natural selection should result in Lévy-like behaviour. Empirical and theoretical research has provided ample evidence of Lévy walks in both extinct and extant species, and its efficiency across models with a diversity of resource distributions. However, no model has addressed the maintenance of Lévy flight foraging through evolutionary processes, and existing models lack ecological breadth. We use numerical simulations, including lineage-based models of evolution with a distribution of move lengths as a variable and heritable trait, to test the Lévy flight foraging hypothesis. We include biological and ecological contexts such as population size, searching costs, lifespan, resource distribution, speed, and consider both energy accumulated at the end of a lifespan and averaged over a lifespan. We demonstrate that selection often results in Lévy-like behaviour, although conditional; smaller populations, longer searches, and low searching costs increase the fitness of Lévy-like behaviour relative to Brownian behaviour. Interestingly, our results also evidence a bet-hedging strategy; Lévy-like behaviour reduces fitness variance, thus maximizing geometric mean fitness over multiple generations.

Mutations that adapt SARS-CoV-2 to mink or ferret do not increase fitness in the human airway.

SARS-CoV-2 has a broad mammalian species tropism infecting humans, cats, dogs, and farmed mink. Since the start of the 2019 pandemic, several reverse zoonotic outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 have occurred in mink, one of which reinfected humans and caused a cluster of infections in Denmark. Here we investigate the molecular basis of mink and ferret adaptation and demonstrate the spike mutations Y453F, F486L, and N501T all specifically adapt SARS-CoV-2 to use mustelid ACE2. Furthermore, we risk assess these mutations and conclude mink-adapted viruses are unlikely to pose an increased threat to humans, as Y453F attenuates the virus replication in human cells and all three mink adaptations have minimal antigenic impact. Finally, we show that certain SARS-CoV-2 variants emerging from circulation in humans may naturally have a greater propensity to infect mustelid hosts and therefore these species should continue to be surveyed for reverse zoonotic infections.