Geographical variations and predictors of coronary artery disease mortality in Turkiye: an environmental and behavioral analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to analyze the geographical variations and identify key environmental and behavioral predictors of coronary artery disease (CAD) mortality in Turkiye. METHODS: A 10-year longitudinal province-level data was used to identify change trajectories of CAD mortality. Environmental determinants (such as air quality and climatic conditions) and behavioral factors of alcohol consumption and smoking were examined for their association with CAD mortality change trajectories using Ordinal Logistic Regression models. RESULTS: The study revealed significantly different trajectoriesof CAD mortality across Turkiye. Environmental factors, particularly air quality (Particulate Matter-10 variation) and climatic conditions (humidity and temperature variations), were heavily associated with the level of CAD mortality. Behavioral factors, notably alcohol consumption and smoking, also exhibited a significantly positive association. Humidity, sunlight, and temperature remained as key predictors of CAD after controlling for smoking and alcohol consumption. CONCLUSION: The study underscores the importance of addressing environmental and lifestyle factors in CAD management and prevention strategies. The findings suggest the necessity for region-specific interventions and public health policies tailored to the unique characteristics of each province in Turkiye. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the multifactorial nature of CAD mortality, providing valuable insights for future research to investigate causal associations, healthcare planning, and policy-making. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Our study has been registered in ClinicalTrials.GOV system with a procotol ID of CAD001.

Behavioral risk factors and socioeconomic inequalities in ischemic heart disease mortality in the United States: A causal mediation analysis using record linkage data.

BACKGROUND: Ischemic heart disease (IHD) is a major cause of death in the United States (US), with marked mortality inequalities. Previous studies have reported inconsistent findings regarding the contributions of behavioral risk factors (BRFs) to socioeconomic inequalities in IHD mortality. To our knowledge, no nationwide study has been conducted on this topic in the US. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this cohort study, we obtained data from the 1997 to 2018 National Health Interview Survey with mortality follow-up until December 31, 2019 from the National Death Index. A total of 524,035 people aged 25 years and older were followed up for 10.3 years on average (SD: 6.1 years), during which 13,256 IHD deaths occurred. Counterfactual-based causal mediation analyses with Cox proportional hazards models were performed to quantify the contributions of 4 BRFs (smoking, alcohol use, physical inactivity, and BMI) to socioeconomic inequalities in IHD mortality. Education was used as the primary indicator for socioeconomic status (SES). Analyses were performed stratified by sex and adjusted for marital status, race and ethnicity, and survey year. In both males and females, clear socioeconomic gradients in IHD mortality were observed, with low- and middle-education people bearing statistically significantly higher risks compared to high-education people. We found statistically significant natural direct effects of SES (HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.27 in males; HR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.49 in females) on IHD mortality and natural indirect effects through the causal pathways of smoking (HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.15, 1.20 in males; HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.13 in females), physical inactivity (HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.14, 1.19 in males; HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.15, 1.20 in females), alcohol use (HR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.09 in males; HR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.11 in females), and BMI (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.04 in males; HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.04 in females). Smoking, physical inactivity, alcohol use, and BMI mediated 29% (95% CI, 24%, 35%), 27% (95% CI, 22%, 33%), 12% (95% CI, 10%, 16%), and 5% (95% CI, 4%, 7%) of the inequalities in IHD mortality between low- and high-education males, respectively; the corresponding proportions mediated were 16% (95% CI, 11%, 23%), 26% (95% CI, 20%, 34%), 14% (95% CI, 11%, 19%), and 5% (95% CI, 3%, 7%) in females. Proportions mediated were slightly lower with family income used as the secondary indicator for SES. The main limitation of the methodology is that we could not rule out residual exposure-mediator, exposure-outcome, and mediator-outcome confounding. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, BRFs explained more than half of the educational differences in IHD mortality, with some variations by sex. Public health interventions to reduce intermediate risk factors are crucial to reduce the socioeconomic disparities and burden of IHD mortality in the general US population.

Alcohol Consumption Patterns and Mortality Among Older Adults With Health-Related or Socioeconomic Risk Factors.

Importance: Alcohol consumption is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality that may be more important in older adults with socioeconomic or health-related risk factors. Objective: To examine the association of alcohol consumption patterns with 12-year mortality and its modification by health-related or socioeconomic risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective cohort study used data from the UK Biobank, a population-based cohort. Participants were current drinkers aged 60 years or older. Data were analyzed from September 2023 to May 2024. Exposure: According to their mean alcohol intake in grams per day, participants' drinking patterns were classified as occasional: ≤2.86 g/d), low risk (men: >2.86-20.00 g/d; women: >2.86-10.00 g/d), moderate risk (men: >20.00-40.00 g/d; women: >10.00-20.00 g/d) and high risk (men: >40.00 g/d; women: >20.00 g/d). Main Outcomes and Measures: Health-related risk factors were assessed with the frailty index, and socioeconomic risk factors were assessed with the Townsend deprivation index. All-cause and cause-specific mortality were obtained from death certificates held by the national registries. Analyses excluded deaths in the first 2 years of follow-up and adjusted for potential confounders, including drinking patterns and preferences. Results: A total of 135 103 participants (median [IQR] age, 64.0 [62.0-67.0] years; 67 693 [50.1%] women) were included. In the total analytical sample, compared with occasional drinking, high-risk drinking was associated with higher all-cause (hazard ratio [HR], 1.33; 95% CI, 1.24-1.42), cancer (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.26-1.53), and cardiovascular (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.04-1.41) mortality; moderate-risk drinking was associated with higher all-cause (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.03-1.18) and cancer (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.05-1.27) mortality, and low-risk drinking was associated with higher cancer mortality (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.01-1.22). While no associations were found for low- or moderate-risk drinking patterns vs occasional drinking among individuals without socioeconomic or health-related risk factors, low-risk drinking was associated with higher cancer mortality (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.01-1.30) and moderate-risk drinking with higher all-cause (HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.01-1.19) and cancer (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.05-1.35) mortality among those with health-related risk factors; low-risk and moderate-risk drinking patterns were associated with higher mortality from all causes (low risk: HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.01-1.28; moderate risk: HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.03-1.32) and cancer (low risk: HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.04-1.50; moderate risk: HR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13-1.63) among those with socioeconomic risk factors. Wine preference (>80% of alcohol from wine) and drinking with meals showed small protective associations with mortality, especially from cancer, but only in drinkers with socioeconomic or health-related risk factors and was associated with attenuating the excess mortality associated with high-, moderate- and even low-risk drinking. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of older drinkers from the UK, even low-risk drinking was associated with higher mortality among older adults with health-related or socioeconomic risk factors. The attenuation of mortality observed for wine preference and drinking only during meals requires further investigation, as it may mostly reflect the effect of healthier lifestyles, slower alcohol absorption, or nonalcoholic components of beverages.

Volume of alcohol intake, heavy episodic drinking, and all-cause mortality in Spain: A longitudinal population-based study.

INTRODUCTION: The impact of alcohol consumption on health, particularly in low quantities, remains controversial. Our objective was to assess the association between alcohol volume and heavy episodic drinking (HED) with all-cause mortality, while minimizing many of the known methodological issues. METHODOLOGY: This longitudinal study used data from the 2011-2012 National Health Survey and the 2014 European Health Survey in Spain. Data from 43,071 participants aged ≥ 15 years were linked to mortality records as of December 2021. Alcohol consumption categories were defined based on intake volume and frequency: never-drinkers, former drinkers, infrequent occasional drinkers (≤once/month), frequent occasional drinkers ( once /month). Regular drinkers (≥once/week) were further classified by volume: >0-10 g/day, >10-20 g/day, >20-40 g/day, and > 40 g/day. Heavy Episodic Drinking (HED) was defined as ≥ 6 and ≥ 5 standard drinks (10 g) within 4-6 h for men and women, respectively. Hazard ratios (HR) were calculated using Cox regression, adjusting for sociodemographic variables, lifestyle factors, health status, and alcohol volume or HED. RESULTS: Compared to infrequent occasional drinkers, HRs for never-drinkers and former drinkers were 1.30 (95 %CI:1.14-1.47) and 1.32 (95 %CI:1.15-1.50), respectively. No differences in mortality risk were observed for intakes up to 20 g/day, but it increased for consumptions > 20-40 g/day and > 40 g/day (HR = 1.29; 95 %CI:1.05-1.58 and HR = 1.57; 95 %CI:1.14-2.17, respectively). The HR of weekly HED vs. never was 1.31 (95 %CI:0.98-1.75). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to infrequent occasional drinking, consuming low amounts of alcohol had no impact on mortality risk. However, never-drinkers, former drinkers, individuals with regular consumption > 20 g/day, and those engaging in weekly HED, experienced higher mortality risk.

Lifestyle factors and their relative contributions to longitudinal progression of cardio-renal-metabolic multimorbidity: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The role of lifestyle factors and their relative contributions to the development and mortality of cardio-renal-metabolic multimorbidity (CRMM) remains unclear. METHODS: A study was conducted with 357,554 UK Biobank participants. CRMM was defined as the coexistence of two or three cardio-renal-metabolic diseases (CRMDs), including cardiovascular disease (CVD), type 2 diabetes (T2D) and chronic kidney disease (CKD). The prospective study examined the associations of individual and combined lifestyle scores (diet, alcohol consumption, smoking, physical activity, sedentary behavior, sleep duration and social connection) with longitudinal progression from healthy to first cardio-renal-metabolic disease (FCRMD), then to CRMM, and ultimately to death, using a multistate model. Subsequently, quantile G-computation was employed to assess the relative contribution of each lifestyle factor. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 13.62 years, lifestyle played crucial role in all transitions from healthy to FCRMD, then to CRMM, and ultimately to death. The hazard ratios (95% CIs) per score increase were 0.91 (0.90, 0.91) and 0.90 (0.89, 0.91) for healthy to FCRMD, and for FCRMD to CRMM, and 0.84 (0.83, 0.86), 0.87 (0.86, 0.89), and 0.90 (0.88, 0.93) for mortality risk from healthy, FCRMD, and CRMM, respectively. Among the seven factors, smoking status contributed to high proportions for the whole disease progression, accounting for 19.88-38.10%. High-risk diet contributed the largest proportion to the risk of transition from FCRMD to CRMM, with 22.53%. Less-frequent social connection contributed the largest proportion to the risk of transition from FCRMD to death, with 28.81%. When we further consider the disease-specific transitions, we find that lifestyle scores had slightly stronger associations with development to T2D than to CVD or CKD. CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates that a healthy lifestyle may have a protective effect throughout the longitudinal progression of CRMM, informing more effective management and treatment. Smoking status, diet, and social connection played pivotal roles in specific disease transitions.

Trend in mortality from mental and behavioral disorders due to alcohol use in Brazil, 2010-2021.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the trend in mortality from mental and behavioral disorders due to alcohol use in Brazil, 2010-2021. METHODS: This was an time series study using Mortality Information System data. Annual percentage change (APC) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated using Prais-Winsten linear regression. RESULTS: Mortality showed a stationary trend for Brazil as a whole (APC = 0.6; 95%CI -4.2;3.0), a falling trend in individuals aged 20-29 years in the South (APC = -7.4; 95%CI -10.0;-4.3) and Northeast (APC = -3.4; 95%CI -6.4;-0.4) regions, in people aged 30-39 in the Midwest region (APC = -3,8; 95%CI -7.4;-0.1) and 40-49 in the South (APC = -2.1; 95%CI -3.8;-0.4), North (APC = -3.1; 95%CI -5.7;-0.5) and Midwest (APC = -2.9; 95%CI -5.5;-0.3) regions. CONCLUSION: Mortality from mental and behavioral disorders due to alcohol use showed a stationary trend nationally and a falling trend in some age groups regionally.

The combined association of physical activity and alcohol use with long-term mortality: an age-stratified analysis.

BACKGROUND: The combined association of physical activity (PA) and alcohol use (AU) with long-term mortality is yet to be investigated. METHODS: For the current study, 12,621 participants aged ≥ 20 years were enrolled from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1999-2004). The study endpoint was all-cause mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the combined effect of PA and AU on long-term mortality. RESULTS: The study population was divided into young (< 60 years, N = 8,258) and old (≥ 60 years, N = 4,363) groups. The median follow-up time was 203 months. In both young and old group, sedentary lifestyle combined with even minimal AU were associated with elevated risk of death (all P < 0.05). In young group, the integration of high volume AU with any degree of PA, including sedentary PA (HR = 2.35, 95% CI 1.24-4.44, P = 0.009), low PA (HR = 1.64, 95% CI 1.01-2.68, P = 0.047), and moderate-to-vigorous PA (HR = 1.99, 95% CI 1.03-3.84, P = 0.041), was associated with an increased risk of mortality. This relationship persisted as significant after adjusting for potential confounders (all P < 0.05). In old group, combining moderate-to-vigorous PA and low volume AU (HR = 0.59, 95% CI 0.37-0.94, P = 0.027) was associated with a reduction in mortality. After adjustment, the combination of moderate-to-vigorous PA and low volume AU was independently associated with favorable prognostic outcomes (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: In both age groups, combining sedentary lifestyle with even minimal AU was a risk factor for death. In young group, combining any level of PA with high volume AU was associated with increased mortality. In old group, combining moderate-to-vigorous PA with low volume AU was related to reduced mortality.

Impacts of cardiometabolic risk factors and alcohol consumption on all-cause mortality among MASLD and its subgroups.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Recently, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) has been introduced. However, research on this new nomenclature and definition remains limited. This study aims to assess the impact of cardiometabolic risk factors and alcohol consumption on all-cause mortality in MASLD and its subgroups. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included 2408 participants with MASLD in NHANES III and their linked mortality through 2019. MASLD patients were divided into two groups based on alcohol consumption: Pure MASLD and MetALD. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess the association between factors and all-cause mortality. During the median 26.0-year follow-up, there were 1040 deaths. The multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed a significant increase of over two-fold in the all-cause mortality rate among patients with four or more cardiometabolic risk factors compared to those with only one. When focusing on each component of cardiometabolic risk factors individually, only diabetes and hypertension were significantly associated with all-cause mortality (p < 0.05). In a subgroup analysis, each additional cardiometabolic factor was linked to an increase in all-cause mortality in both pure MASLD (hazard ratio 1.16; 95% CI 1.06-1.28; p = 0.002) and MetALD (HR 1.77; 95% CI 1.26-2.49; p = 0.001). Notably, an elevation in alcohol consumption was significantly associated with an increase in all-cause mortality rate only in the MetALD (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study found that the presence of diabetes or hypertension was significantly associated with all-cause mortality. We also explored the different impacts of these factors and alcohol consumption within MASLD subgroups.

Alcohol drinking modified the effect of plasma YKL-40 levels on stroke-specific mortality of acute ischemic stroke.

OBJECTIVES: Our study aimed to evaluate the association between plasma human cartilage glycoprotein-39 (YKL-40) and stroke-specific mortality at two years in acute ischemic stroke patients according to the drinking status and amount of alcohol consumption. We further investigated the effect of the interaction between these conditions and YKL-40 levels on the outcome. METHODS: We measured plasma YKL-40 levels in 3267 participants from the China Antihypertensive Trial in Acute Ischemic Stroke. Outcome data on stroke-specific mortality were collected at two years after stroke onset. RESULTS: During the two years of follow-up, 208 (6.4 %) patients, including 44 drinkers and 164 nondrinkers, died of stroke-specific causes. The patients in the highest quartile of YKL-40 had a 3.52-fold (95 % CI: 1.15-10.76, P for trend = 0.006) risk of stroke-specific mortality compared with those in the lowest quartile among drinkers. However, no significant association between YKL-40 and the outcome was observed among nondrinkers (HR: 1.18, 95 % CI: 0.75-1.86, P for trend = 0.08). Alcohol drinking modified the effect of YKL-40 on the outcome (P for interaction = 0.04). Subgroup analyses revealed that each 1-unit increase in log-transformed YKL-40 was associated with a 72 % greater risk of stroke-specific mortality for light drinkers. This association was amplified with a 226 % increased risk of the outcome among heavy drinkers. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated YKL-40 levels were associated with an increased risk of stroke-specific mortality at two years among drinkers with ischemic stroke. Drinking status substantially modified the effect of plasma YKL-40 levels on the outcome. This effect was amplified with the increased amount of alcohol consumption. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT01840072.

Alcohol-Related Deaths of US Health Care Workers.

This cohort study investigates the risk of alcohol-related death among US health care workers compared with non­health care workers.

The effects of health risk behaviors to excess mortality in the population with depression: A cohort study based on NHANES data.

BACKGROUND: The population with depression had a considerable excess mortality risk. This increased mortality may be attributed to the biological consequences of depression or the substantial prevalence of health risk behaviors (HRBs). This study aimed to quantify the combined effects of four major HRBs - smoking, excessive alcohol use, physical inactivity, and an unhealthy diet - on excess mortality among depressed individuals. METHODS: This study included 35,738 adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2005-06 to 2017-18, with mortality follow-up data censored through 2019. The standardized prevalence of HRBs was calculated for populations with and without depression. Poisson regression models were used to calculate the mortality rate ratio (MRR). Based on model adjusting for socio-demographic factors, the attenuation of MRR was determined after further adjustment for HRBs. RESULTS: A total of 3147 participants were identified as having depression. All HRBs showed a significantly higher prevalence among the population with depression. After adjusting for socio-demographic factors, depression was associated with 1.7 and 1.8 times higher all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality rate, respectively. Further adjustment for all current HRBs resulted in a 21.9 % reduction in all-cause mortality rate and a 15.4 % decrease in cardiovascular disease mortality rate. LIMITATION: HRBs were reported at a single time point, and we are unable to demonstrate a causal effect. CONCLUSION: At least 1/5 of excess mortality for population with depression was attributable to HRBs. Efforts should be made to address HRBs among population with depression.

Changes in Six Categories of Alcohol-Attributable Mortality From Before to During the Early Phases of the COVID-19 Pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: The shelter-in-place mandates enacted early in the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in changes in alcohol use and consequent outcomes. We assessed changes in six categories of season-specific alcohol-attributable mortality from before to during the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. METHOD: We used logistic regression models to assess alcohol-attributable mortality in the United States from 2017 through 2020 (n = 11,632,725 decedents ages 18 and older). Outcomes included chronic fully alcohol-attributable deaths, poisonings, motor vehicle accidents, suicides, homicides, and falls. Exposure variables included year, season, the interaction between the year 2020 and season, rurality, the interaction between the year 2020 and rurality, decedent age, sex, race, ethnicity, marital status, and education. RESULTS: Compared with 2019, season-specific mortality age-adjusted rates of chronic fully alcohol-attributable deaths, homicides, poisonings, and falls increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Suicide rates decreased in most 2020 seasons relative to the same seasons in 2019. Motor vehicle deaths decreased in spring 2020 versus 2019. Relative to dying by any other cause, the odds of death by chronic fully alcohol-attributable causes and poisonings were higher across seasons in 2020 versus 2019. The odds of death by suicide were higher among residents of rural counties in spring 2020 versus 2019. CONCLUSIONS: There were distinct temporal changes in six types of alcohol-attributable deaths during the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Sleep duration in midlife and old age and risk of mortality over a 48-year follow-up: The Helsinki businessmen study (HBS) cohort.

OBJECTIVES: Both short and long sleep duration have been associated with increased mortality, but there are few truly long-term studies. STUDY DESIGN: This is a cohort study of 2504 men born between 1919 and 1934. In 1974-1975 (mean age 48), participants underwent baseline clinical examinations and sleep duration assessments. A follow-up examination took place 35 years later, in 2010 (mean age 82). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: All-cause mortality data from baseline and from old age were collected through to December 31, 2022. RESULTS: At baseline, short sleep duration (≤6 h per night), normal sleep duration (>6 and ≤ 8 h), and long sleep duration (>8 h) was reported by 266, 2019 and 219 men, respectively. Men with short sleep duration had higher levels of smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, and poorer self-rated health than those with normal sleep duration. During the 48-year follow-up, 2287 men died. The unadjusted hazard ratio for mortality was 1.20 (95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.37) for short compared with normal sleep duration, but this association vanished after adjustments (1.01, 95 % CI 0.87-1.17). In old age, the corresponding hazard ratios were 1.41 (1.16-1.72) and 1.19 (0.94-1.51) for short sleep duration and 1.33 (1.09-1.63) and 1.31 (1.02-1.67) for long sleep duration. CONCLUSIONS: In a comprehensive lifespan follow-up, the modestly increased mortality among men with short sleep duration in midlife was attributed to unhealthy lifestyle factors. In old age both long and short sleep duration seemed to be associated with modestly increased mortality. CLINICALTRIALS: gov identifier for the HBS: NCT02526082.

The association between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality: An umbrella review of systematic reviews using lifetime abstainers or low-volume drinkers as a reference group.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Systematic reviews of the relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality have reported different relative risk (RR) curves, possibly due to the choice of reference group. Results have varied from 'J-shaped' curves, where low-volume consumption is associated with reduced risk, to monotonically increased risk with increasing consumption. We summarised the evidence on alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality exclusively from systematic reviews using lifetime abstainers or low-volume/occasional drinkers as the reference group. METHODS: We conducted a systematic umbrella review of systematic reviews of the relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality in prospective cohort studies using a reference group of lifetime abstainers or low-volume/occasional drinkers. Several databases (PubMed/Medline/Embase/PsycINFO/Cochrane Library) were searched to March 2022. Reviews were assessed for risk of bias, and those with reference groups containing former drinkers were excluded. RESULTS: From 2149 articles retrieved, 25 systematic reviews were identified, and five did not include former drinkers in the reference group. Four of the five included reviews had high risk of bias. Three reviews reported a J-shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality with significant decreased risk for low-volume drinking (RR range 0.84 to 0.95), while two reviews did not. The one review at low risk of bias reported monotonically increased risk with greater consumption (RRs = 1.02, 1.13, 1.33 and 1.52 for low-, medium-, high- and higher-volume drinking, respectively, compared with occasional drinking). All five reviews reported significantly increased risk with higher levels of alcohol consumption (RR range 1.28 to 3.70). Sub-group analyses were reported by sex and age; however, there were evidence gaps for many important factors. Conversely, 17 of 20 excluded systematic reviews reported decreased mortality risk for low-volume drinking. CONCLUSIONS: Over 70% of systematic reviews and meta-analyses published to March 2022 of all-cause mortality risk associated with alcohol consumption did not exclude former drinkers from the reference group and may therefore be biased by the 'sick-quitter effect'.

The risk relationships between alcohol consumption, alcohol use disorder and alcohol use disorder mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Increasing levels of alcohol use are associated with a risk of developing an alcohol use disorder (AUD), which, in turn, is associated with considerable burden. Our aim was to estimate the risk relationships between alcohol consumption and AUD incidence and mortality. METHOD: A systematic literature search was conducted, using Medline, Embase, PsycINFO and Web of Science for case-control or cohort studies published between 1 January 2000 and 8 July 2022. These were required to report alcohol consumption, AUD incidence and/or AUD mortality (including 100% alcohol-attributable deaths). The protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42022343201). Dose-response and random-effects meta-analyses were used to determine the risk relationships between alcohol consumption and AUD incidence and mortality and mortality rates in AUD patients, respectively. RESULTS: Of the 5904 reports identified, seven and three studies from high-income countries and Brazil met the inclusion criteria for quantitative and qualitative syntheses, respectively. In addition, two primary US data sources were analyzed. Higher levels of alcohol consumption increased the risk of developing or dying from an AUD exponentially. At an average consumption of four standard drinks (assuming 10 g of pure alcohol/standard drink) per day, the risk of developing an AUD was increased sevenfold [relative risk (RR) = 7.14, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 5.13-9.93] and the risk of dying fourfold (RR = 3.94, 95% CI = 3.53-4.40) compared with current non-drinkers. The mortality rate in AUD patients was 3.13 (95% CI = 1.07-9.13) per 1000 person-years. CONCLUSIONS: There are exponential positive risk relationships between alcohol use and both alcohol use disorder incidence and mortality. Even at an average consumption of 20 g/day (about one large beer), the risk of developing an alcohol use disorder (AUD) is nearly threefold that of current non-drinkers and the risk of dying from an AUD is approximately double that of current non-drinkers.

Characteristics, toxicology and major organ pathology of deaths due to acute alcohol toxicity in Australia, 2011-2022.

INTRODUCTION: Acute alcohol toxicity is a significant component of alcohol-related mortality. The study aimed to: (i) determine the circumstances of death and characteristics of fatal alcohol toxicity cases, 2011-2022; (ii) determine their toxicological profile and major autopsy findings; and (iii) determine trends in population mortality rates. METHODS: Retrospective study of acute alcohol toxicity deaths in Australia, 2011-2022, retrieved from the National Coronial Information System. RESULTS: A total of 891 cases were identified, with a mean age of 49.2 years, 71.0% being male. Alcohol use problems were noted in 71.3%. In 57.5% death was attributed solely to acute alcohol toxicity, and combined acute alcohol toxicity/disease in 42.5%. There was evidence of sudden collapse in 24.9% of cases. The mean BAC was 0.331 g/100 mL (range 0.107-0.936), and spirits were the most commonly reported beverages (35.8%). Cases of combined toxicity/disease had significantly lower BACs than those attributed solely to alcohol toxicity (0.296 vs. 0.358 g/100 mL). Cardiomegaly was diagnosed in 32.5%, and severe coronary artery disease in 22.1%. Aspiration of vomitus was noted in 18.0%, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 19.6%. Severe liver steatosis was present in 33.4% and 13.6% had cirrhosis. There was an average annual percentage increase in deaths of 7.90. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The 'typical' case was a long-standing, heavy spirits drinker. BACs showed enormous variation and no arbitrary concentration may be deemed lethal. Clinically significant disease was associated with death at a lower BAC and people with such disease may be at increased risk of alcohol poisoning.

Why Do Only Some Cohort Studies Find Health Benefits From Low-Volume Alcohol Use? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Study Characteristics That May Bias Mortality Risk Estimates.

OBJECTIVE: Assumptions about alcohol's health benefits profoundly influence global disease burden estimates and drinking guidelines. Using theory and evidence, we identify and test study characteristics that may bias estimates of all-cause mortality risk associated with low-volume drinking. METHOD: We identified 107 longitudinal studies by systematic review with 724 estimates of the association between alcohol consumption and all-cause mortality for 4,838,825 participants with 425,564 recorded deaths. "Higher-quality" studies had a mean cohort age of 55 years or younger, followed up beyond 55 years, and excluded former and occasional drinkers from abstainer reference groups. "Low-volume" alcohol use was defined as between one drink per week (>1.30 g ethanol/day) and two drinks per day (<25 g ethanol/ day). Mixed linear regression was used to model relative risks (RRs) of mortality for subgroups of higher- versus lower-quality studies. RESULTS: As predicted, studies with younger cohorts and separating former and occasional drinkers from abstainers estimated similar mortality risk for low-volume drinkers (RR = 0.98, 95% CI [0.87, 1.11]) as abstainers. Studies not meeting these quality criteria estimated significantly lower risk for low-volume drinkers (RR = 0.84, [0.79, 0.89]). In exploratory analyses, studies controlling for smoking and/or socioeconomic status had significantly reduced mortality risks for low-volume drinkers. However, mean RR estimates for low-volume drinkers in nonsmoking cohorts were above 1.0 (RR = 1.16, [0.91, 1.41]). CONCLUSIONS: Studies with lifetime selection biases may create misleading positive health associations. These biases pervade the field of alcohol epidemiology and can confuse communications about health risks. Future research should investigate whether smoking status mediates, moderates, or confounds alcohol-mortality risk relationships.