Leprosy and lymphatic filariasis-related disability and psychosocial burden in northern Mozambique.

INTRODUCTION: Leprosy and lymphatic filariasis (LF) are among the most disabling neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) that affect the citizens of Mozambique, especially in the Northern provinces. The irreversible impairments caused by these NTDs often lead to psychosocial consequences, including poor mental wellbeing, stigma and reduced social participation. Limited data on these consequences are available for Mozambique, which are urgently needed to better understand the true disease burden and support advocacy for scaling up interventions. METHODS: A cross-sectional mixed-methods study was conducted. Mental distress was assessed with the Self Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20), participation restriction was assessed with the Participation Scale Short (PSS) and perceived stigma was assessed with the Explanatory Model Interview Catalogue affected persons stigma scale (EMIC-AP). Additionally, semi-structured interviews were conducted with persons affected by leprosy or LF. RESULTS: In total, 127 persons affected by leprosy and 184 persons affected by LF were included in the quantitative portion of the study. For the qualitative portion, eight semi-structured interviews were conducted. In both disease groups, mental distress was found in 70% of participants. Moreover, 80% of persons affected by leprosy and 90% of persons affected by LF perceived stigma. Moderate to extreme participation restriction was found in approximately 43% of persons affected by leprosy and in 26% of the persons affected by LF. Persons affected by leprosy and LF felt excluded from society and experienced financial problems. More severe disabilities were associated with more severe outcomes for mental wellbeing, participation restriction and stigma. By contrast, participation in a self-care group was suggested to have a positive impact on these outcomes. CONCLUSION: The findings provide evidence that persons affected by leprosy and LF must not only confront physical impairments but also experience significant disability in the psychosocial domain, including mental distress, participation restriction and stigma. These challenges must be urgently addressed by NTD programmes to promote the inclusion and wellbeing of persons affected by NTDs.

Triple-drug therapy with ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine and albendazole for the acceleration of lymphatic filariasis elimination in Kenya: Programmatic implementation and results of the first impact assessment.

The World Health Organization (WHO) endorsed the use of triple-drug mass drug administration (MDA) regimen with ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine (DEC) and albendazole (commonly abbreviated as IDA) to accelerate the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem in settings where onchocerciasis is not co-endemic. The National Programme for Elimination of LF (NPELF) in Kenya was among the first adopters of the IDA-MDA and two annual rounds were provided in 2018 and 2019 to the residents of Lamu County and Jomvu sub-County in the coast region. This study documented the feasibility of successfully delivering the two rounds of IDA-MDA. An operational research study was undertaken to determine efficient sampling strategies, indicators, and the appropriate population groups that could be used for the monitoring and evaluation of LF programs using IDA-MDA for the elimination of the disease as a public health problem. Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted at baseline in 2018 before IDA-MDA and an impact assessment 17 months after the second round of IDA-MDA. The reported epidemiological treatment coverage was at least 80% in all implementation units during each round of IDA-MDA. Blood samples were tested for filarial antigenemia using commercial Filariasis Test Strips (FTS) and any individual found to be positive was tested again at night for the presence of microfilariae in finger prick blood smears using microscopy. The overall prevalence of circulating filarial antigen (CFA) was relatively low at the baseline survey with Jomvu having 1.39% (95% CI: 0.91, 2.11) and Lamu having 0.48% (95% CI: 0.21, 1.13). Significant reduction in CFA prevalence was observed during the impact assessment after the two annual rounds of mass treatment. The overall relative reduction (%) in CFA prevalence following the two rounds of MDA with IDA was significant in both Jomvu (52.45%, Z = -2.46, P < 0.02) and Lamu (52.71%, Z = -1.97, P < 0.05). Heterogeneity, however, was observed in the CFA prevalence reduction between random and purposive clusters, as well as between adult and child populations. The results of the impact assessment survey offered strong evidence that it was safe to stop the IDA-MDA in the two EUs because transmission appears to have been interrupted. It is also important to implement a post-treatment surveillance system which would enable efficient detection of any recrudescence of LF transmission at a sub-evaluation unit level. Our findings show that IDA-MDA may be considered for acceleration of LF elimination in other settings where onchocerciasis is not co-endemic.

Acceptance of Mass Drug Administration for Prophylaxis against Lymphatic Filariasis in a Tribal Endemic Area: A Descriptive Cross-sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: India is at a critical stage to eliminate filariasis. Uncovering the factors governing may help taking appropriate measures to achieve the goal. OBJECTIVES: This study evaluated the acceptance of "mass drug administration" (MDA) for prophylaxis against filariasis and the factors facilitating and interfering with it. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted in a tribal endemic area of India from May 2022 to October 2022. A validated 29-item self-administered questionnaire was used to collect the data. Items were grouped under "knowledge," "social processes," "think and feel," "practical factors," and "motivation/hesitancy" domains. RESULTS: Of 101 participants, majority were aware of the disease (92.1%), its vector (74.3%), at least one disability caused (87.2%), and governmental scheme of MDA (69.3%). Two-thirds never received and 85.1% did not receive MDA within 1 year. 68.3% refused of distribution of MDA to their doorstep. Majority were concerned for getting MDA for self and their family/friends; however, 49.5% showed inability to take independent decision. More than 30% disagreed to get MDA had it been available. The region with the highest concerns for adverse drug effects showed minimum MDA consumption than others (P < 0.05). MDA acceptance/consumption was significantly associated with knowledge about disability caused, distribution of drugs by a health-care representative to doorstep, behavior of the representative, and concerns about potential adverse drug effects. CONCLUSION: MDA coverage was inadequate in the study population. Level of knowledge, practical difficulties in getting drugs, inapt thinking/concerns, motivation, awareness about disabilities caused, door-to-door drug distribution, and behavior of health-care representative(s), were identified as factors significantly affecting acceptance of MDA.

Detection of Wuchereria bancrofti infection in mosquitoes in areas co-endemic with Brugia malayi in Balasore district, Odisha, India.

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a crippling and disfiguring parasitic condition. India accounts for 55% of the world's LF burden. The filarial parasite Wuchereria bancrofti is known to cause 99.4% of the cases while, Brugia malayi accounts for 0.6% of the issue occurring mainly in some pockets of Odisha and Kerala states. The Balasore (Baleswar) district of Odisha has been a known focus of B. malayi transmission. We employed molecular xenomonitoring to detect filarial parasite DNA in vectors. In six selected villages, Gravid traps were used to collect Culex mosquitoes and hand catch method using aspirators was followed for collection of mansonioides. A total of 2903 mosquitoes comprising of Cx. quinquefasciatus (n = 2611; 89.94%), Cx. tritaeniorhynchus (n = 100; 3.44%), Mansonia annuliferea (n = 139; 4.78%) and Mansonia uniformis (n = 53; 1.82%) were collected from six endemic villages. The species wise mosquitoes were made into 118 pools, each with a maximum of 25 mosquitoes, dried and transported to the laboratory at VCRC, Puducherry. The mosquito pools were subjected to parasite DNA extraction, followed by Real-time PCR using LDR and HhaI probes to detect W. bancrofti and B. malayi infections, respectively. Seven pools (6.66%) of Cx. quinquefasciatus, showed infection with only W. bancrofti while none of the pools of other mosquito species showed infection with either W. bancrofti or B. malayi. Although the study area is endemic to B. malayi, none of the vectors of B. malayi was found with parasite infection. This study highlights the ongoing transmission of bancroftian filariasis in the study villages of Balasore district of Odisha and its implications for evaluating LF elimination programme.

Challenges and Solutions: Total Knee Replacement in Patients with Chronic Lymphatic Filariasis: A Case Report.

CASE: A 59-year-old woman with a history of left knee pain exacerbated by lymphatic filariasis underwent successful total knee replacement (TKR) for advanced osteoarthritis. Postoperatively, diligent adherence to compression bandaging, physiotherapy, and lymphatic flow promotion resulted in no lymphedema progression. During the 5-year follow-up, the patient showed improved Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score and stable implant. CONCLUSIONS: Currently, there are no established protocols or formulated guidelines for TKR in patients with chronic filariasis. The preoperative lymphedema prevention must be tailor-made for each patient in the context of advanced osteoarthritis based on the functional lymphatic vessel status.

An automated, high-resolution phenotypic assay for adult Brugia malayi and microfilaria.

Brugia malayi are thread-like parasitic worms and one of the etiological agents of Lymphatic filariasis (LF). Existing anthelmintic drugs to treat LF are effective in reducing the larval microfilaria (mf) counts in human bloodstream but are less effective on adult parasites. To test potential drug candidates, we report a multi-parameter phenotypic assay based on tracking the motility of adult B. malayi and mf in vitro. For adult B. malayi, motility is characterized by the centroid velocity, path curvature, angular velocity, eccentricity, extent, and Euler Number. These parameters are evaluated in experiments with three anthelmintic drugs. For B. malayi mf, motility is extracted from the evolving body skeleton to yield positional data and bending angles at 74 key point. We achieved high-fidelity tracking of complex worm postures (self-occlusions, omega turns, body bending, and reversals) while providing a visual representation of pose estimates and behavioral attributes in both space and time scales.

Wuchereria bancrofti Lymphatic Filariasis, Barrancabermeja, Colombia, 2023.

We describe a recent case of lymphatic filariasis in Colombia caused by Wuchereria bancrofti nematodes. Our study combines clinical-epidemiologic findings with phylogenetic data. Resurgence of lymphatic filariasis may be linked to increasing urbanization trends and migration from previously endemic regions. Fieldwork can be a beneficial tool for screening and containing transmission.

A review of epidemiology of lymphatic filariasis in Nigeria.

Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that affects the lymphatic system of humans. The major etiologic agent is a nematode called Wuchereria bancrofti, but Brugia malayi and Brugia timoriare sometimes encountered as causative agents. Mosquitoes are the vectors while humans the definitive hosts respectively. The burden of the disease is heavier in Nigeria than in other endemic countries in Africa. This occurs with increasing morbidity and mortality at different locations within the country, the World Health Organization recommended treatments for lymphatic filariasis include the use of Albendazole (400mg) twice per year in co-endemic areas with loa loa, Ivermectin (200mcg/kg) in combination with Albendazole (400mg) in areas that are co-endemic with onchocerciasis, ivermectin (200mcg/kg) with diethylcarbamazine citrate (DEC) (6mg/kg) and albendazole (400mg) in areas without onchocerciasis. This paper covered a systematic review, meta-analysis, and scoping review on lymphatic filariasis in the respective geopolitical zones within the country. The literature used was obtained through online search engines including PubMed and Google Scholar with the heading "lymphatic filariasis in the name of the state", Nigeria. This review revealed an overall prevalence of 11.18% with regional spread of Northwest (1.59%), North Central and North East, (4.52%), South West (1.26%), and South-South with South East (3.81%) prevalence. The disease has been successfully eliminated in Argungu local government areas (LGAs) of Kebbi State, Plateau, and Nasarawa States respectively. Most clinical manifestations (31.12%) include hydrocele, lymphedema, elephantiasis, hernia, and dermatitis. Night blood samples are appropriate for microfilaria investigation. Sustained MDAs, the right testing methods, early treatment of infected cases, and vector control are useful for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis for morbidity management and disability prevention in the country. Regional control strategies, improved quality monitoring of surveys and intervention programs with proper records of morbidity and disability requiring intervention are important approaches for the timely elimination of the disease in Nigeria.

Ongoing transmission of lymphatic filariasis in Samoa 4.5 years after one round of triple-drug mass drug administration.

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) remains a significant global issue. To eliminate LF as a public health problem, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends multiple rounds of mass drug administration (MDA). In certain scenarios, including when elimination targets have not been met with two-drug MDA, triple-drug MDA (using ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine and albendazole) is recommended. In this study, we report on antigen (Ag) and microfilaria (Mf) prevalence in eight primary sampling units (PSUs) in Samoa 4.5 years after one round of triple-drug MDA. METHODOLOGY: In 2023, community surveys were conducted in eight PSUs that had been surveyed previously in 2018 (between 1.5 and 3.5 months post triple-drug MDA) and 2019 (six to eight-months post triple-drug MDA). Fifteen houses were randomly selected in each PSU with household members aged ≥ 5 years invited to participate. Blood samples were tested for Ag and Mf. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Ag-positive participants were observed in six of the eight PSUs, and Ag prevalence was significantly above the 1% threshold in four PSUs. The presence of Mf-positive participants in five PSUs confirms the presence of residual active infections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides evidence of persistent LF transmission in Samoa 4.5 years after one round of triple-drug MDA, confirming that one round was insufficient for interruption of transmission in this setting. Our findings highlight the negative impact of delaying MDA rounds, for example, due to public health emergencies.

Efficacy of ivermectin and albendazole combination in suppressing transmission of lymphatic filariasis following mass administration in Tanzania: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Preventive chemotherapy with ivermectin and albendazole (IA) in mass drug administration (MDA) programs for all at-risk populations is the core public health intervention to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF). Achieving this goal depends on drug effectiveness in reducing parasite reservoirs in the community to halt transmission. We assessed the efficacy of ivermectin and albendazole in clearing microfilariae and circulating filarial antigens (CFA) following MDA. METHODS: This community-based prospective study was conducted in Mkinga district, Tanga region, Tanzania, from November 2018 to June 2019. A total of 4115 MDA-eligible individuals were screened for CFA using Filarial test strips. CFA positives were re-examined for microfilariae by microscopy. CFA and microfilariae positive individuals were enrolled and received IA through MDA campaign. The status of microfilariae and CFA was monitored before MDA, and on day 7 and six-month following MDA. The primary efficacy outcomes were the clearance rates of microfilariae on day 7 and six-months, and CFA at 6 months of post-MDA. The McNemar test assessed the proportions of microfilariae positive pre- and post-MDA, while Chi-square tests were utilized to examine factors associated with CFA status six months post-MDA. RESULTS: Out of 4115 individuals screened, 239 (5.8%) tested positive for CFA, of whom 11 (4.6%) were also positive for microfilariae. Out of the ten microfilariae-positive individuals available for follow-up on day 7, nine tested negative, yielding a microfilariae clearance rate of 90% [95% confidence interval (CI): 59.6-98.2%]. Participants who tested negative for microfilariae on day 7 remained free of microfilariae six months after MDA. However, those who did not clear microfilariae on day-7 remained positive six-months post-MDA. The McNemar test revealed a significant improvement in microfilariae clearance on day 7 following MDA (P = 0.02). Out of 183 CFA-positive individuals who were available at 6-month follow-up, 160 (87.4%) remained CFA positive, while 23 became CFA negative. The CFA clearance rate at 6 months post-MDA was 12.6% (95% CI: 8.5-8.5%). There was no significant association of variability in ivermectin plasma exposure, measured by maximum concentration or area under the curve, and the clearance status of microfilariae or CFA post-MDA. CONCLUSIONS: Preventive chemotherapy with IA effectively clears microfilariae within a week. However, it is less effective in clearing CFA at six months of post-MDA. The low clearance rate for filarial antigenemia underscores the need for alternative drug combinations and additional preventive measures to achieve LF elimination by 2030.

Distinguishing recrudescence from reinfection in lymphatic filariasis.

BACKGROUND: The Global Program to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) is the largest public health program based on mass drug administration (MDA). Despite decades of MDA, ongoing transmission in some countries remains a challenge. To optimise interventions, it is critical to differentiate between recrudescence and new infections. Since adult filariae are inaccessible in humans, deriving a method that relies on the offspring microfilariae (mf) is necessary. METHODS: We developed a genome amplification and kinship analysis-based approach using Brugia malayi samples from gerbils, and applied it to analyse Wuchereria bancrofti mf from humans in Côte d'Ivoire. We examined the pre-treatment genetic diversity in 269 mf collected from 18 participants, and further analysed 1-year post-treatment samples of 74 mf from 4 participants. Hemizygosity of the male X-chromosome allowed for direct inference of haplotypes, facilitating robust maternal parentage inference. To enrich parasite DNA from samples contaminated with host DNA, a whole-exome capture panel was created for W. bancrofti. FINDINGS: By reconstructing and temporally tracking sibling relationships across pre- and post-treatment samples, we differentiated between new and established maternal families, suggesting reinfection in one participant and recrudescence in three participants. The estimated number of reproductively active adult females ranged between 3 and 11 in the studied participants. Population structure analysis revealed genetically distinct parasites in Côte d'Ivoire compared to samples from other countries. Exome capture identified protein-coding variants with ∼95% genotype concordance rate. INTERPRETATION: We have generated resources to facilitate the development of molecular genetic tools that can estimate adult worm burdens and monitor parasite populations, thus providing essential information for the successful implementation of GPELF. FUNDING: This work was financially supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (https://www.gatesfoundation.org) under grant OPP1201530 (Co-PIs PUF & Gary J. Weil). B. malayi parasite material was generated with support of the Foundation for Barnes Jewish Hospital (PUF). In addition, the development of computational methods was supported by the National Institutes of Health under grants AI144161 (MM) and AI146353 (MM). The funders had no role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

The effects of selected neglected tropical diseases on economic performance at the macrolevel in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) such as leprosy, lymphatic filariasis (LF), schistosomiasis and onchocerciasis are endemic in several African countries. These diseases can lead to severe pain and permanent disability, which can negatively affect the economic productivity of the affected person(s), and hence resulting into low economic performance at the macrolevel. Nonetheless, empirical evidence of the effects of these NTDs on economic performance at the macrolevel is sparse. This study therefore investigates the effects of the above-mentioned NTDs on economic performance at the macrolevel in Africa. METHODS: The study employs a panel design with data comprising 24 to 45 African countries depending on the NTD in question, over the period, 2002 to 2019. Gross domestic product (GDP) is used as the proxy for economic performance (Dependent variable) and the prevalence of the above-mentioned NTDs are used as the main independent variables. The random effects (RE), fixed effects (FE) and the instrumental variable fixed effects (IVFE) panel data regressions are used as estimation techniques. RESULTS: We find that, an increase in the prevalence of the selected NTDs is associated with a fall in economic performance in the selected African countries, irrespective of the estimation technique used. Specifically, using the IVFE regression estimates, we find that a percentage increase in the prevalence of leprosy, LF, schistosomiasis and onchocerciasis is associated with a reduction in economic performance by 0.43%, 0.24%, 0.28% and 0.36% respectively, at either 1% or 5% level of significance. CONCLUSION: The findings highlight the need to increase attention and bolster integrated efforts or measures towards tackling these diseases in order to curb their deleterious effects on economic performance. Such measures can include effective mass drug administration (MDA), enhancing access to basic drinking water and sanitation among others.

Sero-antigen prevalence of lymphatic filariasis and risk factors of podoconiosis in Busiriba sub-county, Kamwenge district, Southwestern Uganda, August-September 2018.

OBJECTIVE: Given the neglected nature of filariasis, especially in Uganda where data are scarce, this cross-sectional study aimed to determine the sero-antigen prevalence of lymphatic filariasis and risk factors associated with non-lymphatic filariasis (podoconiosis) in Busiriba Sub-county, Kamwenge District, Uganda, during August-September 2018, to inform targeted elimination efforts. RESULTS: We enrolled 101 participants, among whom 35 (34.7%) had podoconiosis. The sero-antigen prevalence of lymphatic filariasis was 1.0%. Older age and walking barefoot were associated with increased podoconiosis risk. Specifically, individuals aged 25-49 years with had 7.38 times higher odds of podoconiosis (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 7.38, 95% CI: 1.36-40.13) compared to those under 25 years, while those aged ≥ 50 years had even higher odds (aOR = 8.49, 95%CI: 1.44-50.15). Additionally, individuals who reported walking barefoot had 14 times higher odds of podoconiosis (aOR = 14.08; 95% CI: 2.49-79.50).

Modelling the cost of engage & treat and test & treat strategies towards the elimination of lymphatic filariasis in Ghana.

BACKGROUND: Despite several years of LF-MDA implementation, Ghana still has some districts with mf prevalence >1%, partly due to poor treatment coverage levels resulting from non-participation in MDA. To address the challenges, we implemented Engage & Treat (E&T) and Test & Treat (T&T) strategies for individuals who miss or refuse MDA respectively, in a hotspot district, enabling us to reach many of those who seldom, or never, take part in MDA. This financial cost study was undertaken to analyse data on the LF-MDA, E&T and T&T implementation in 2021 and the financial cost to inform the rollout of the E&T and T&T as mop-up strategies in future LF-MDAs. METHODS: This costing study analysed cost data from the 2021 LF-MDA implementation activities carried out by the Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTD) programme of the Ghana Health Service and the SENTINEL study, carried out in Ahanta West district for the two interventions (i.e., E&T and T&T). The 2021 Ghana Population and Housing Census data was used to estimate the LF-MDA-eligible population. The financial cost per person treated was estimated and these costs were applied to the projected population to obtain the financial cost for subsequent years. RESULTS: Implementing MDA mop-up strategies either through the E&T or T&T to improve coverage comes at an additional cost to the elimination goals. For example, in 2024 the projected cost per person treated by the routine LF-MDA is estimated at US$0.83. The cost using the integrated LF-MDA and the E&T, T&T led by the NTD programme or T&T integrated into the health system was estimated at US$1.62, US$2.88, and US$2.33, respectively, for the same year. Despite the increased cost, the proposed combined LF-MDA and mop-up strategies will have a higher estimated population treated for 2024 (i.e., 1,392,211) compared to the routine LF-MDA approach (i.e., 988,470) for the same year. CONCLUSION: Combining LF-MDA with E&T/T&T mop-up strategies, despite their high costs, may provide NTD Programmes with the options of improving treatment coverage and reaching the LF elimination target sooner, given that the routine LF-MDA alone approach has been implemented for many years with some districts yet to reach the elimination targets.

Financial hardship among patients suffering from neglected tropical diseases: A systematic review and meta-analysis of global literature.

INTRODUCTION: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) mainly affect underprivileged populations, potentially resulting in catastrophic health spending (CHS) and impoverishment from out-of-pocket (OOP) costs. This systematic review aimed to summarize the financial hardship caused by NTDs. METHODS: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, EconLit, OpenGrey, and EBSCO Open Dissertations, for articles reporting financial hardship caused by NTDs from database inception to January 1, 2023. We summarized the study findings and methodological characteristics. Meta-analyses were performed to pool the prevalence of CHS. Heterogeneity was evaluated using the I2 statistic. RESULTS: Ten out of 1,768 studies were included, assessing CHS (n = 10) and impoverishment (n = 1) among 2,761 patients with six NTDs (Buruli ulcer, chikungunya, dengue, visceral leishmaniasis, leprosy, and lymphatic filariasis). CHS was defined differently across studies. Prevalence of CHS due to OOP costs was relatively low among patients with leprosy (0.0-11.0%), dengue (12.5%), and lymphatic filariasis (0.0-23.0%), and relatively high among patients with Buruli ulcers (45.6%). Prevalence of CHS varied widely among patients with chikungunya (11.9-99.3%) and visceral leishmaniasis (24.6-91.8%). Meta-analysis showed that the pooled prevalence of CHS due to OOP costs of visceral leishmaniasis was 73% (95% CI; 65-80%, n = 2, I2 = 0.00%). Costs of visceral leishmaniasis impoverished 20-26% of the 61 households investigated, depending on the costs captured. The reported costs did not capture the financial burden hidden by the abandonment of seeking healthcare. CONCLUSION: NTDs lead to a substantial number of households facing financial hardship. However, financial hardship caused by NTDs was not comprehensively evaluated in the literature. To develop evidence-informed strategies to minimize the financial hardship caused by NTDs, studies should evaluate the factors contributing to financial hardship across household characteristics, disease stages, and treatment-seeking behaviors.

Predictive Value of Microfilariae-Based Stop-MDA Thresholds After Triple Drug Therapy With IDA Against Lymphatic Filariasis in Treatment-Naive Indian Settings.

Mass drug administration (MDA) of antifilarial drugs is the main strategy for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF). Recent clinical trials indicated that the triple-drug therapy with ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole (IDA) is much more effective against LF than the widely used two-drug combinations (albendazole plus either ivermectin or diethylcarbamazine). For IDA-based MDA, the stop-MDA decision is made based on microfilariae (mf) prevalence in adults. In this study, we assess how the probability of eventually reaching elimination of transmission depends on the critical threshold used in transmission assessment surveys (TAS-es) to define whether transmission was successfully suppressed and triple-drug MDA can be stopped. This analysis focuses on treatment-naive Indian settings. We do this for a range of epidemiological and programmatic contexts, using the established LYMFASIM model for transmission and control of LF. Based on our simulations, a single TAS, one year after the last MDA round, provides limited predictive value of having achieved suppressed transmission, while a higher MDA coverage increases elimination probability, thus leading to a higher predictive value. Every additional TAS, conditional on previous TAS-es being passed with the same threshold, further improves the predictive value for low values of stop-MDA thresholds. An mf prevalence threshold of 0.5% corresponding to TAS-3 results in ≥95% predictive value even when the MDA coverage is relatively low.

Subnational Projections of Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Targets in Ethiopia to Support National Level Policy.

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating, poverty-promoting, neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for worldwide elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) by 2030. Evaluating progress towards this target for national programmes is challenging, due to differences in disease transmission and interventions at the subnational level. Mathematical models can help address these challenges by capturing spatial heterogeneities and evaluating progress towards LF elimination and how different interventions could be leveraged to achieve elimination by 2030. METHODS: Here we used a novel approach to combine historical geo-spatial disease prevalence maps of LF in Ethiopia with 3 contemporary disease transmission models to project trends in infection under different intervention scenarios at subnational level. RESULTS: Our findings show that local context, particularly the coverage of interventions, is an important determinant for the success of control and elimination programmes. Furthermore, although current strategies seem sufficient to achieve LF elimination by 2030, some areas may benefit from the implementation of alternative strategies, such as using enhanced coverage or increased frequency, to accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of geospatial disease prevalence maps of LF with transmission models and intervention histories enables the projection of trends in infection at the subnational level under different control scenarios in Ethiopia. This approach, which adapts transmission models to local settings, may be useful to inform the design of optimal interventions at the subnational level in other LF endemic regions.

An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale.

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging. METHODS: We developed a computationally feasible framework for providing subnational projections for LF across 44 sub-Saharan African countries using ensemble models, guided by historical control data, to allow assessment of the role of subnational heterogeneities in global goal achievement. Projected scenarios include ongoing annual treatment from 2018 to 2030, enhanced coverage, and biannual treatment. RESULTS: Our projections suggest that progress is likely to continue well. However, highly endemic locations currently deploying strategies with the lower World Health Organization recommended coverage (65%) and frequency (annual) are expected to have slow decreases in prevalence. Increasing intervention frequency or coverage can accelerate progress by up to 5 or 6 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: While projections based on baseline data have limitations, our methodological advancements provide assessments of potential bottlenecks for the global goals for LF arising from subnational heterogeneities. In particular, areas with high baseline prevalence may face challenges in achieving the 2030 goals, extending the "tail" of interventions. Enhancing intervention frequency and/or coverage will accelerate progress. Our approach facilitates preimplementation assessments of the impact of local interventions and is applicable to other regions and neglected tropical diseases.

Reducing the Antigen Prevalence Target Threshold for Stopping and Restarting Mass Drug Administration for Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination: A Model-Based Cost-effectiveness Simulation in Tanzania, India and Haiti.

BACKGROUND: The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) aims to reduce and maintain infection levels through mass drug administration (MDA), but there is evidence of ongoing transmission after MDA in areas where Culex mosquitoes are the main transmission vector, suggesting that a more stringent criterion is required for MDA decision making in these settings. METHODS: We use a transmission model to investigate how a lower prevalence threshold (<1% antigenemia [Ag] prevalence compared with <2% Ag prevalence) for MDA decision making would affect the probability of local elimination, health outcomes, the number of MDA rounds, including restarts, and program costs associated with MDA and surveys across different scenarios. To determine the cost-effectiveness of switching to a lower threshold, we simulated 65% and 80% MDA coverage of the total population for different willingness to pay per disability-adjusted life-year averted for India ($446.07), Tanzania ($389.83), and Haiti ($219.84). RESULTS: Our results suggest that with a lower Ag threshold, there is a small proportion of simulations where extra rounds are required to reach the target, but this also reduces the need to restart MDA later in the program. For 80% coverage, the lower threshold is cost-effective across all baseline prevalences for India, Tanzania, and Haiti. For 65% MDA coverage, the lower threshold is not cost-effective due to additional MDA rounds, although it increases the probability of local elimination. Valuing the benefits of elimination to align with the GPELF goals, we find that a willingness to pay per capita government expenditure of approximately $1000-$4000 for 1% increase in the probability of local elimination would be required to make a lower threshold cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: Lower Ag thresholds for stopping MDAs generally mean a higher probability of local elimination, reducing long-term costs and health impacts. However, they may also lead to an increased number of MDA rounds required to reach the lower threshold and, therefore, increased short-term costs. Collectively, our analyses highlight that lower target Ag thresholds have the potential to assist programs in achieving lymphatic filariasis goals.