Modelling the impacts of climate change on cereal crop production in East Africa: evidence from heterogeneous panel cointegration analysis.

Climate change has become an issue of concern for sustainable agriculture production. East African nations are heavily reliant on the agriculture sector, which accounts for a substantial amount of their gross domestic product (GDP) and employment. Due to climatic fluctuations, the output of the sector became very unpredictable. Hence, this study investigates the effects of climate change on cereal crop production in nine East African nations between 1990 and 2018. The study implemented pooled mean group (PMG) approach to examine the long-run and short-run dynamic impacts of the varying climatic circumstances on the output of cereal crops. The results reveal that rainfall and carbon emissions have favourable and significant long-run effects on cereal crop output, even though their short-run impacts are negligible. Additionally, cultivated land area and rural population have a constructive role in enhancing agricultural output both in the long-run and short-run. However, average temperatures have negative repercussions on cereal crop production in the long-run and short-run, even though the magnitude of sensitivity is greater in the short-run. Dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) validated the robustness of the long-run findings of the PMG technique. Besides, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality outcomes indicate that cereal crop output has a bidirectional causality with temperature, carbon emissions, and cropped area. The study further demonstrated unidirectional causation from rural population to cereal crop yield. The study recommends that East African policymakers improve the quality of farm inputs, the adoption of climate-resilient farming practices, the development of water retention facilities and the establishment of crop diversification initiatives.

Global and regional drivers of land-use emissions in 1961-2017.

Historically, human uses of land have transformed and fragmented ecosystems1,2, degraded biodiversity3,4, disrupted carbon and nitrogen cycles5,6 and added prodigious quantities of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere7,8. However, in contrast to fossil-fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, trends and drivers of GHG emissions from land management and land-use change (together referred to as 'land-use emissions') have not been as comprehensively and systematically assessed. Here we present country-, process-, GHG- and product-specific inventories of global land-use emissions from 1961 to 2017, we decompose key demographic, economic and technical drivers of emissions and we assess the uncertainties and the sensitivity of results to different accounting assumptions. Despite steady increases in population (+144 per cent) and agricultural production per capita (+58 per cent), as well as smaller increases in emissions per land area used (+8 per cent), decreases in land required per unit of agricultural production (-70 per cent) kept global annual land-use emissions relatively constant at about 11 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent until 2001. After 2001, driven by rising emissions per land area, emissions increased by 2.4 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent per decade to 14.6 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent in 2017 (about 25 per cent of total anthropogenic GHG emissions). Although emissions intensity decreased in all regions, large differences across regions persist over time. The three highest-emitting regions (Latin America, Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa) dominate global emissions growth from 1961 to 2017, driven by rapid and extensive growth of agricultural production and related land-use change. In addition, disproportionate emissions are related to certain products: beef and a few other red meats supply only 1 per cent of calories worldwide, but account for 25 per cent of all land-use emissions. Even where land-use change emissions are negligible or negative, total per capita CO2-equivalent land-use emissions remain near 0.5 tonnes per capita, suggesting the current frontier of mitigation efforts. Our results are consistent with existing knowledge-for example, on the role of population and economic growth and dietary choice-but provide additional insight into regional and sectoral trends.

Spatial-Temporal Characteristics in Grain Production and Its Influencing Factors in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 1995 to 2018.

The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is the major crop-producing region in China. Based on the climate and socio-economic data from 1995 to 2018, we analyzed the spatial-temporal characteristics in grain production and its influencing factors by using exploratory spatial data analysis, a gravity center model, a spatial panel data model, and a geographically weighted regression model. The results indicated the following: (1) The grain production of eastern and southern areas was higher, while that of western and northern areas was lower; (2) The grain production center in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain shifted from the southeast to northwest in Tai'an, and was distributed stably at the border between Jining and Tai'an; (3) The global spatial autocorrelation experienced a changing process of "decline-growth-decline", and the area of hot and cold spots was gradually reduced and stabilized, which indicated that the polarization of grain production in local areas gradually weakened and the spatial difference gradually decreased in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain; (4) The impact of socio-economic factors has been continuously enhanced while the role of climate factors in grain production has been gradually weakened. The ratio of the effective irrigated area, the amount of fertilizer applied per unit sown area, and the average per capita annual income of rural residents were conducive to the increase in grain production in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain; however, the effect of the annual precipitation on grain production has become weaker. More importantly, the association between the three factors and grain production was found to be spatially heterogeneous at the local geographic level.

Consumption of Foods Derived from Subsidized Crops Remains Associated with Cardiometabolic Risk: An Update on the Evidence Using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2009-2014.

In this study, we examined the associations between the consumption of foods derived from crops subsidized under the 2008 United States (US) Farm Bill and cardiometabolic risk factors and whether the magnitude of these associations has changed since the 2002 US Farm Bill. Four federal databases were used to estimate daily consumption of the top seven subsidized commodities (corn, soybeans, wheat, rice, sorghum, dairy, and livestock) and to calculate a subsidy score (0-1 scale) for Americans' daily dietary intake during 2009-2014, with a higher score indicative of a higher proportion of the diet derived from subsidized commodities. The cardiometabolic risk factors included obesity, abdominal adiposity, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and dysglycemia. Linear and logistic regression models were adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, the poverty-income ratio, the smoking status, educational attainment, physical activity, and daily calorie intake. During 2009-2014, adults with the highest subsidy score had higher probabilities of obesity, abdominal adiposity, and dysglycemia compared to the lowest subsidy score. After the 2002 Farm Bill (measured using data from 2001-2006), the subsidy score decreased from 56% to 50% and associations between consuming a highly-subsidized diet and dysglycemia did not change (p = 0.54), whereas associations with obesity (p = 0.004) and abdominal adiposity (p = 0.002) significantly attenuated by more than half. The proportion of calories derived from subsidized food commodities continues to be associated with adverse cardiometabolic risk factors, though the relationship with obesity and abdominal adiposity has weakened in recent years.

Written Nutrition Guidelines, Client Choice Distribution, and Adequate Refrigerator Storage Are Positively Associated with Increased Offerings of Feeding America's Detailed Foods to Encourage (F2E) in a Large Sample of Arkansas Food Pantries.

BACKGROUND: Millions of food-insecure households in the United States obtain food from food pantries each year. These foods are often of insufficient nutritional quality. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to describe the frequency with which Arkansas food pantries offer foods included in Feeding America's Detailed Foods to Encourage (F2E) framework, and examine food pantry characteristics associated with increased frequency of offering F2E and other foods. DESIGN: This was a 27-item cross-sectional online survey that assessed food pantries' characteristics (eg, storage capacities, number of clients served) and typical food offerings. PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: Partnering with five of Arkansas's six food banks, 764 e-mail invitations were sent to food agency managers across the state. A final sample of 357 food pantries was included in the analyses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcomes of interest were the frequencies of offering specific F2E and F2E in general. The F2E framework was developed by Feeding America to more accurately assess food banks' inventories, and its categories (Fruits and Vegetables; Protein; Dairy; and Grains) are generally consistent with MyPlate. STATISTICAL ANALYSES PERFORMED: Descriptive statistics were computed for all food pantry characteristics and frequency of foods offered. Associations between food pantry characteristics and the frequency of offering F2E were examined via multiple linear regression and path analysis. RESULTS: Only 18.5% of food pantries had written nutrition guidelines, and only 19.3% offered client choice distribution. The F2E most commonly offered were meat/poultry/seafood without breading and not fried (59.6%) and peanut butter (58.2%). The least commonly offered F2E were nuts/seeds with nothing added (3.8%) and low-fat/1%/skim cheese (8.2%). Written nutrition guidelines (P<0.001), client choice distribution (P=0.003), and adequate refrigerator storage (P=0.010) were associated with more frequently offering F2E. CONCLUSIONS: This study fills a gap in knowledge by documenting food pantry characteristics that are associated with the frequencies of offering specific types of healthy foods.

Wasting in under five children is significantly varied between rice producing and non-producing households of Libokemkem district, Amhara region, Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Acute undernutrition (wasting) is a condition in which a child becomes too thin for his or her height because of weight loss or failure to gain weight. Wasted children have greater risk of morbidity and mortality compared to their normal counterparts. There are significant number of children in Africa and Asia who suffered from all forms of malnutrition. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of wasting and its associated factors among 6-59 months of age children in Libokemkem district, Amhara region of Ethiopia. METHODS: A community based cross-sectional study design was employed from June 1st to August 30th, 2017. A total of 876 households were selected using stratified multistage sampling technique. Interviewer administered structured questionnaire was used to collect socio demographic and other characteristics of the participants. Anthropometric data from the children was collected using the procedure stipulated by World Health Organization/United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund. Kebeles, the smallest administrative unit of the country, were stratified in to two groups based on the presence and absence of rice production program. Then, the children were selected randomly from the households that have been included by using systematic random sampling technique. To assure the quality of data, pretest was done on 5.00% of the total sample size. Data were coded and entered using Epi Info version 7 software and exported to Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 20 software for further analysis. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were employed to determine the significant association between independent and dependent variables. Binary logistic regression was run to identify candidate variable for multivariate logistic regression. Those variables with a p-value < 0.25 were entered in to multivariate analyses to check the association between independent and dependent variables. Significant association set at a p value < 0.05. RESULTS: The total prevalence of acute malnutrition (wasting) was 7.10% and from this 2.50% were severely wasted. It was significantly higher among children in non-rice producing community at 11.80% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 7.90, 13.88) than rice producing one at 3.34% (95% CI: 1.60, 5.65). Children whose mothers had no power to decide how income earned is used (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 3.94, 95% CI: 2.12, 7.31), children who lived in areas with no rice production program (AOR = 3.16, 95% CI: 1.58, 6.33), children whose mother had no formal education (AOR = 3.64, 95% CI: 1.70, 7.79) were also significantly associated with wasting. Monthly income less than1500 Ethiopian birr (AOR = 4.14, 95% CI: 2.14, 7.99), presence of diarrheal disease for the last 15 days (AOR = 2.49, 95% CI: 1.34, 4.64) and complementary food starting before 6 months (AOR = 2.62, 95% CI: 1.26, 5.42) significantly associated with wasting. CONCLUSION: There was substantial difference between rice producing program and non-producing program communities with regarding to wasting. Children from rice producing program communities have better nutritional status than their counterparts. Intervention needs to be conducted on mother's decision-making power over household income, mother's education, and on the productive agricultural practices like improved rice producing programs.

Temporal Trends in Apparent Food Consumption in Bangladesh: A Joinpoint Regression Analysis of FAO's Food Balance Sheet Data from 1961 to 2013.

We analyzed the temporal trends and significant changes in apparent food consumption or availabilityin Bangladesh from 1961 to 2013. Due to the lack of a long-term national dietary intake dataset, this study used data derived from the FAO's food balance sheets. We used joinpoint regression analysis to identify significant changes in the temporal trends. The annual percent change (APC) was computed for each segment of the trends. Apparent intake of starchy roots, eggs, fish, vegetables, milk, and vegetable oils significantly has increased (p < 0.05) in the Bangladeshi diet since 1961; whereas cereals changed by merely 4.65%. Bangladesh has been experiencing three structural changes in their dietary history after the Liberation War, though the intake level has been grossly inadequate. Initially, since the late-1970s, apparent vegetable oils intake increased at a market rate (APC = 7.53). Subsequently, since the early-1990s, the real force behind the structural change in the diet has been the increasing trends in the apparent intake of fish (APC = 5.05), eggs (APC = 4.65), and meat (APC = 1.54). Lastly, since the early 2000s, apparent intakes of fruits (APC = 20.44), vegetables (APC = 10.58), and milk (APC = 3.55) increased significantly (p <0.05). This study result reveals and quantifies the significant secular changes in the dietary history of Bangladesh from 1961 to 2013. Bangladesh has experienced inadequate but significant structural changes in the diet in the late-1970s, early-1990s, and early-2000s. Overabundance of cereals and inadequate structural changes in the diet may have caused the increasing prevalence of overweightness and emergence of diet-related, non-communicable diseases in Bangladesh.

Time dynamics and invariant subnetwork structures in the world cereals trade network.

The development of industrial agriculture has enabled a sharp increase in food trade at the global scale. Worldwide trade underpins food security by distributing food surpluses to food deficient countries. The study of agricultural product flows can provide insights on the complex interactions between exporting and importing countries and the resulting network structures. Commercial partnerships between countries can be modelled using a complex network approach. Based on the detailed trade matrices from FAO covering the period from 1986 to 2013, we present an analysis of the world cereal trade in terms of weighted and directed networks. The network nodes are the countries and the links are the trades of agricultural products in mass. We reveal the changing topology and degree distribution of the world network during the studied period. We distinguish three entangled subnetwork structures when considering the temporal stability of the trades. The three subnetworks display distinct properties and a differential contribution in total trade. Trades of uninterrupted activity over the 28-year study period compose the backbone network which accounts for two thirds of all traded mass and is scale-free. Inversely, two thirds of the trades only have one or two consecutive years of activity and define the transient subnetwork which displays random growth and accounts for very little traded mass. The trades of intermediate duration display an exponential growth both in numbers and in traded mass and define the intermediate subnetwork. The topology of each subnetwork is a time invariant. The identification of invariant structures is a useful basis for developing prospective agri-food network modelling to assess their resilience to perturbations and shocks.

Future warming increases probability of globally synchronized maize production shocks.

Meeting the global food demand of roughly 10 billion people by the middle of the 21st century will become increasingly challenging as the Earth's climate continues to warm. Earlier studies suggest that once the optimum growing temperature is exceeded, mean crop yields decline and the variability of yield increases even if interannual climate variability remains unchanged. Here, we use global datasets of maize production and climate variability combined with future temperature projections to quantify how yield variability will change in the world's major maize-producing and -exporting countries under 2 °C and 4 °C of global warming. We find that as the global mean temperature increases, absent changes in temperature variability or breeding gains in heat tolerance, the coefficient of variation (CV) of maize yields increases almost everywhere to values much larger than present-day values. This higher CV is due both to an increase in the SD of yields and a decrease in mean yields. For the top four maize-exporting countries, which account for 87% of global maize exports, the probability that they have simultaneous production losses greater than 10% in any given year is presently virtually zero, but it increases to 7% under 2 °C warming and 86% under 4 °C warming. Our results portend rising instability in global grain trade and international grain prices, affecting especially the ∼800 million people living in extreme poverty who are most vulnerable to food price spikes. They also underscore the urgency of investments in breeding for heat tolerance.

Household cereal crop harvest and children's nutritional status in rural Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: Reduction of child undernutrition is one of the Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. Achievement of this goal may be made more difficult in some settings by climate change through adverse impact on agricultural productivity. However, there is only limited quantitative evidence on the link between household crop harvests and child nutrition. We examined this link in a largely subsistence farming population in rural Burkina Faso. METHODS: Data on the middle-upper arm circumference (MUAC) of 975 children ≤5 years of age, household crop yields, and other parameters were obtained from the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Multilevel modelling was used to assess the relationship between MUAC and the household crop harvest in the year 2009 estimated in terms of kilocalories per adult equivalent per day (kcal/ae/d). RESULTS: Fourteen percent of children had a MUAC <125 mm (a value indicative of acute undernutrition). The relationship between MUAC and annual household food energy production adjusted for age, sex, month of MUAC measurement, household wealth, whether a household member had a non-agricultural occupation, garden produce, village infrastructure and market presence, suggested a decline in MUAC below around 3000 kcal/ae/d. The mean MUAC was 2.49 (95% CI 0.45, 4.52) mm less at 1000 than at 3000 kcal/ae/d. CONCLUSIONS: Low per capita household crop production is associated with poorer nutritional status of children in a rural farming population in Burkina Faso. This and similar populations may thus be vulnerable to the adverse effects of weather on agricultural harvest, especially in the context of climate change.

Enniatin B and beauvericin are common in Danish cereals and show high hepatotoxicity on a high-content imaging platform.

Mycotoxins are fungi-born metabolites that can contaminate foods through mould-infected crops. They are a significant food/feed-safety issue across the globe and represent a substantial financial burden for the world economy. Moreover, with a changing climate and fungal biota, there is now much discussion about emerging mycotoxins that are measurable at significant levels in crops world-wide. Unfortunately, we still know very little about the bioavailability and toxic potentials of many of these less characterized mycotoxins, including the large family of enniatins. In this study, we present new occurrence data for enniatin A, A1, B, B1 and beauvericin in four Danish crops: oat, wheat, and barley from the 2010 harvest, and rye from 2011 harvest. The occurrence of the four enniatins were B > B1 > A1 > A. Enniatin B was detected in 100% of tested samples regardless of crop type. In addition to occurrence data, we report a proof-of-concept study using a human-relevant high-content hepatotoxicity, or "quadroprobe," assay to screen mycotoxins for their cytotoxic potential. The assay was sensitive for most cytotoxic compounds in the 0.009-100 µM range. Among eight tested mycotoxins (enniatin B, beauvericin, altenariol, deoxynivalenol, aflatoxin B1, andrastin A, citrinin, and penicillic acid), enniatin B and beauvericin showed significant cytotoxicity at a concentration lower than that for aflatoxin B1, which is the archetypal acute hepatotoxic and liver-carcinogenic mycotoxin. Hence, the quadroprobe hepatotoxicity assay may become a valuable assessment tool for toxicity assessment of mycotoxins in the future. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Environ Toxicol 32: 1658-1664, 2017.

Community-based grain banks using local foods for improved infant and young child feeding in Ethiopia.

The first thousand days of a child's life are critical for ensuring adequate nutrition to enable optimal health, development and growth. Inadequate infant and young child feeding (IYCF) practices likely contribute to Ethiopia's concerning malnutrition situation. Development partners in four regions of Ethiopia implemented community production of complementary food with women's groups processing local grains and legumes at grain banks to improve availability, accessibility, dietary diversity and timely introduction of complementary foods. The objective of this study was to establish the acceptability, perceived impact, feasibility and required inputs to sustain local grain bank interventions to improve IYCF. A subsidized barter system was used by mothers in the rural communities, and flour was sold in the semi-urban context. Purposive sampling guided the qualitative study design and selection of project stakeholders. A total of 51 key informant interviews and 33 focus group discussions (n = 237) were conducted. The grain bank flour was valued for its perceived diverse local ingredients; while the project was perceived as creating labour savings for women. The grain bank flour offered the potential to contribute to improved IYCF; however, further dietary modification or fortification is needed to improve the micronutrient content. Dependence upon external inputs to subsidize the barter model and the reliance on volunteer labour from women's groups in the rural context are the greatest risks to sustainability. This intervention illustrates how integrated agricultural and health interventions leveraging local production can appeal to diverse stakeholders as an acceptable approach to improve IYCF.

A Forecasting Model for Feed Grain Demand Based on Combined Dynamic Model.

In order to improve the long-term prediction accuracy of feed grain demand, a dynamic forecast model of long-term feed grain demand is realized with joint multivariate regression model, of which the correlation between the feed grain demand and its influence factors is analyzed firstly; then the change trend of various factors that affect the feed grain demand is predicted by using ARIMA model. The simulation results show that the accuracy of proposed combined dynamic forecasting model is obviously higher than that of the grey system model. Thus, it indicates that the proposed algorithm is effective.

Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production.

In recent years, several extreme weather disasters have partially or completely damaged regional crop production. While detailed regional accounts of the effects of extreme weather disasters exist, the global scale effects of droughts, floods and extreme temperature on crop production are yet to be quantified. Here we estimate for the first time, to our knowledge, national cereal production losses across the globe resulting from reported extreme weather disasters during 1964-2007. We show that droughts and extreme heat significantly reduced national cereal production by 9-10%, whereas our analysis could not identify an effect from floods and extreme cold in the national data. Analysing the underlying processes, we find that production losses due to droughts were associated with a reduction in both harvested area and yields, whereas extreme heat mainly decreased cereal yields. Furthermore, the results highlight ~7% greater production damage from more recent droughts and 8-11% more damage in developed countries than in developing ones. Our findings may help to guide agricultural priorities in international disaster risk reduction and adaptation efforts.

School-Level Practices to Increase Availability of Fruits, Vegetables, and Whole Grains, and Reduce Sodium in School Meals - United States, 2000, 2006, and 2014.

Students consume up to half of their daily calories at school, often through the federal school meal programs (e.g., National School Lunch Program) administered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). In 2012, USDA published new required nutrition standards for school meals.* These standards were the first major revision to the school meal programs in >15 years and reflect current national dietary guidance and Institute of Medicine recommendations to meet students' nutrition needs. The standards require serving more fruits, vegetables, and whole grains and gradually reducing sodium content over 10 years. To examine the prevalence of school-level practices related to implementation of the nutrition standards, CDC analyzed data from the 2000, 2006, and 2014 School Health Policies and Practices Study (SHPPS) on school nutrition services practices related to fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and sodium. Almost all schools offered whole grain foods each day for breakfast and lunch, and most offered two or more vegetables and two or more fruits each day for lunch. The percentage of schools implementing practices to increase availability of fruits and vegetables and decrease sodium content in school meals increased from 2000-2014. However, opportunities exist to increase the percentage of schools nationwide implementing these practices.

Genetic dissection of grain size and grain number trade-offs in CIMMYT wheat germplasm.

Grain weight (GW) and number per unit area of land (GN) are the primary components of grain yield in wheat. In segregating populations both yield components often show a negative correlation among themselves. Here we use a recombinant doubled haploid population of 105 individuals developed from the CIMMYT varieties Weebill and Bacanora to understand the relative contribution of these components to grain yield and their interaction with each other. Weebill was chosen for its high GW and Bacanora for high GN. The population was phenotyped in Mexico, Argentina, Chile and the UK. Two loci influencing grain yield were indicated on 1B and 7B after QTL analysis. Weebill contributed the increasing alleles. The 1B effect, which is probably caused by to the 1BL.1RS rye introgression in Bacanora, was a result of increased GN, whereas, the 7B QTL controls GW. We concluded that increased in GW from Weebill 7B allele is not accompanied by a significant reduction in grain number. The extent of the GW and GN trade-off is reduced. This makes this locus an attractive target for marker assisted selection to develop high yielding bold grain varieties like Weebill. AMMI analysis was used to show that the 7B Weebill allele appears to contribute to yield stability.

The rise and fall of gluten!

Mankind has existed for 2·5 million years but only in the last 10,000 years have we been exposed to wheat. Wheat was first cultivated in the Fertile Crescent (South Western Asia) with a farming expansion that lasted from about 9000BC to 4000BC. Thus it could be considered that wheat (and gluten) is a novel introduction to man's diet! Prior to 1939 the rationing system had already been devised. This led to an imperative to try to increase agricultural production. Thus it was agreed in 1941 that there was a need to establish a Nutrition Society. The very roots of the society were geared towards necessarily increasing the production of wheat. This goal was achieved and by the end of the 20th century, global wheat output had expanded 5-fold. Perhaps as a result the epidemiology of coeliac disease (CD) or gluten sensitive enteropathy has changed. CD is a state of heightened immunological responsiveness to ingested gluten in genetically susceptible individuals. CD now affects 1 % or more of all adults, for which the treatment is a strict lifelong gluten-free diet. However, there is a growing body of evidence to show that a far greater proportion of individuals without coeliac disease are taking a gluten-free diet of their own volition. This clinical entity has been termed non-coeliac gluten sensitivity (NCGS), although the condition is fraught with complexities due to overlap with other gluten-based constituents that can also trigger similar clinical symptoms. This review will explore the relationship between gluten, the rising prevalence of modern coeliac disease, and the new entity of NCGS along with its associated uncertainties.

Use of a new availability index to evaluate the effect of policy changes to the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) on the food environment in New Orleans.

OBJECTIVE: Changes to the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) occurred in 2009 when supplemental foods offered through the programme were updated to align with current dietary recommendations. The present study reports on a new index developed to monitor the retail environment's adoption of these new food supply requirements in New Orleans. DESIGN: A 100-point WIC Availability Index (WIC-AI) was derived from new minimum state stocking requirements for WIC vendors. A sample of supermarkets, medium and small food stores was assessed in 2009 before changes were implemented and in 2010 after revisions had gone into effect. WIC-AI scores were utilized to compare differences in meeting requirements by store type, WIC vendor status and year of measurement. SETTING: Supermarkets, medium and small WIC and non-WIC food stores in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA. RESULTS: At baseline supermarkets had the highest median WIC-AI score (93·3) followed by medium (69·8) and small food stores (48·0). Small WIC stores had a higher median WIC-AI score at baseline than small non-WIC stores (66·9 v. 38·0). Both medium and small WIC stores significantly increased their median WIC-AI scores between 2009 and 2010 (P<0·01). The increased median WIC-AI score in small food stores was largely attributed to increased availability of cereals and grains, juices and fruit, and infant fruit and vegetables. CONCLUSIONS: The WIC-AI is a simple tool useful in summarizing complex food store environment data and may be adapted for use in other states or a national level to inform food policy decisions and direction.

Producing more grain with lower environmental costs.

Agriculture faces great challenges to ensure global food security by increasing yields while reducing environmental costs. Here we address this challenge by conducting a total of 153 site-year field experiments covering the main agro-ecological areas for rice, wheat and maize production in China. A set of integrated soil-crop system management practices based on a modern understanding of crop ecophysiology and soil biogeochemistry increases average yields for rice, wheat and maize from 7.2 million grams per hectare (Mg ha(-1)), 7.2 Mg ha(-1) and 10.5 Mg ha(-1) to 8.5 Mg ha(-1), 8.9 Mg ha(-1) and 14.2 Mg ha(-1), respectively, without any increase in nitrogen fertilizer. Model simulation and life-cycle assessment show that reactive nitrogen losses and greenhouse gas emissions are reduced substantially by integrated soil-crop system management. If farmers in China could achieve average grain yields equivalent to 80% of this treatment by 2030, over the same planting area as in 2012, total production of rice, wheat and maize in China would be more than enough to meet the demand for direct human consumption and a substantially increased demand for animal feed, while decreasing the environmental costs of intensive agriculture.