Epidemiological inference at the threshold of data availability: an influenza A(H1N2)v spillover event in the United Kingdom.

Viruses that infect animals regularly spill over into the human population, but individual events may lead to anything from a single case to a novel pandemic. Rapidly gaining an understanding of a spillover event is critical to calibrating a public health response. We here propose a novel method, using likelihood-free rejection sampling, to evaluate the properties of an outbreak of swine-origin influenza A(H1N2)v in the United Kingdom, detected in November 2023. From the limited data available, we generate historical estimates of the probability that the outbreak had died out in the days following the detection of the first case. Our method suggests that the outbreak could have been said to be over with 95% certainty between 19 and 29 days after the first case was detected, depending upon the probability of a case being detected. We further estimate the number of undetected cases conditional upon the outbreak still being live, the epidemiological parameter R 0, and the date on which the spillover event itself occurred. Our method requires minimal data to be effective. While our calculations were performed after the event, the real-time application of our method has potential value for public health responses to cases of emerging viral infection.

The evolution, complexity, and diversity of swine influenza viruses in China: A hidden public health threat.

Swine influenza viruses (SIVs), including H1N1, H1N2, and H3N2, have spread throughout the global pig population. Potential pandemics are a concern with the recent sporadic cross-species transmission of SIVs to humans. We collected 1421 samples from Guangdong, Fujian, Henan, Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces during 2017-2018 and isolated 29 viruses. These included 21H1N1, 5H1N2, and 3H3N2 strains. Genome analysis showed that the domestic epidemic genotypes of H1N1 were mainly G4 and G5 reassortant EA swine H1N1. These genotypes have a clear epidemic advantage. Two strains were Clade 6B.1 pdm/09H1N1, suggesting a possible pig-to-human transmission route. Notably, three new H1N2 genotypes were identified using the genomic backbones of G4 or G5 viruses for recombination. The identification of various subtypes and genotypes highlight the complexity and diversity of SIVs in China and need for continuous monitoring of SIV evolution to assess the risks and prepare for potential influenza pandemics.

Risk assessment of influenza transmission between workers and pigs on US indoor hog growing units.

On pig farms ample opportunity exists for pig-to-human and human-to-pig (cross-species) influenza transmission. The purpose of this study was to assess the risks of cross-species influenza transmission within an indoor pig grower unit in the United States and to prioritize data gaps. Using the World Organization for Animal Health risk assessment framework we evaluated influenza transmission across two risk pathways: 1. What is the likelihood that based on current conditions on a single typical hog grower-finisher facility in the Midwest (US), during a single production cycle, at least one hog becomes infected with an influenza virus associated with swine (either H1N1, H3N2, or H1N2) [step 1a] and that at least one worker becomes infected as a result [step 1b] and that the worker develops symptoms [step 1c]? And 2. What is the likelihood that, based on current conditions on a single typical hog grower-finisher facility in the Midwest (US), during a single production cycle, at least one worker becomes infected with an influenza virus associated with people (either H1N1, H3N2, or H1N2) [step 2a] and that at least one pig becomes infected as a result [step 2b] and that the pig(s) develop(s) symptoms [step 2c]? Semi-quantitative probability and uncertainty assessments were based on literature review including passive and active influenza surveillance data. We assumed a typical pig-grower farm has capacity for 4,000 pigs, two workers, and minimal influenza control measures. Probability and uncertainty categories were assessed for each risk step and the combined risk pathway. The combined risk assessment for risk pathway one was estimated to be Very Low for H1N1 and H1N2 with an overall High level of uncertainty. The combined risk assessment for risk pathway two was estimated to be Extremely Low for H1N1 and H3N2 with a High degree of uncertainty. Scenario analyses in which influenza control measures were assumed to be implemented separately (implementing vaccinating sows, mass vaccinating incoming pigs or improved personal protective equipment adherence) showed no reduction in the combined risk category. When implementing three influenza control methods altogether, the combined risk could be reduced to Extremely Low for risk pathway one and remained Extremely Low for risk pathway two. This work highlights that multiple influenza control methods are needed to reduce the risks of inter-species influenza transmission on swine farms.

Genomic diversity and evolutionary dynamics of Influenza A viruses in Colombian swine: implications for one health surveillance and control.

Influenza A viruses (IAV) impose significant respiratory disease burdens in both swine and humans worldwide, with frequent human-to-swine transmission driving viral evolution in pigs and highlighting the risk at the animal-human interface. Therefore, a comprehensive One Health approach (interconnection among human, animal, and environmental health) is needed for IAV prevention, control, and response. Animal influenza genomic surveillance remains limited in many Latin American countries, including Colombia. To address this gap, we genetically characterized 170 swine specimens from Colombia (2011-2017). Whole genome sequencing revealed a predominance of pandemic-like H1N1 lineage, with a minority belonging to H3N2 and H1N2 human seasonal-like lineage and H1N1 early classical swine lineages. Significantly, we have identified reassortant and recombinant viruses (H3N2, H1N1) not previously reported in Colombia. This suggests a broad genotypic viral diversity, likely resulting from reassortment between classical endemic viruses and new introductions established in Colombia's swine population (e.g. the 2009 H1N1 pandemic). Our study highlights the importance of a One Health approach in disease control, particularly in an ecosystem where humans are a main source of IAV to swine populations, and emphasizes the need for continued surveillance and enhanced biosecurity measures. The co-circulation of multiple subtypes in regions with high swine density facilitates viral exchange, underscoring the importance of monitoring viral evolution to inform vaccine selection and public health policies locally and globally.

Potential pandemic risk of circulating swine H1N2 influenza viruses.

Influenza A viruses in swine have considerable genetic diversity and continue to pose a pandemic threat to humans due to a potential lack of population level immunity. Here we describe a pipeline to characterize and triage influenza viruses for their pandemic risk and examine the pandemic potential of two widespread swine origin viruses. Our analysis reveals that a panel of human sera collected from healthy adults in 2020 has no cross-reactive neutralizing antibodies against a α-H1 clade strain (α-swH1N2) but do against a γ-H1 clade strain. The α-swH1N2 virus replicates efficiently in human airway cultures and exhibits phenotypic signatures similar to the human H1N1 pandemic strain from 2009 (H1N1pdm09). Furthermore, α-swH1N2 is capable of efficient airborne transmission to both naïve ferrets and ferrets with prior seasonal influenza immunity. Ferrets with H1N1pdm09 pre-existing immunity show reduced α-swH1N2 viral shedding and less severe disease signs. Despite this, H1N1pdm09-immune ferrets that became infected via the air can still onward transmit α-swH1N2 with an efficiency of 50%. These results indicate that this α-swH1N2 strain has a higher pandemic potential, but a moderate level of impact since there is reduced replication fitness and pathology in animals with prior immunity.

Pathogenicity and escape to pre-existing immunity of a new genotype of swine influenza H1N2 virus that emerged in France in 2020.

In 2020, a new genotype of swine H1N2 influenza virus (H1avN2-HA 1C.2.4) was identified in France. It rapidly spread within the pig population and supplanted the previously predominant H1avN1-HA 1C.2.1 virus. To characterize this new genotype which is genetically and antigenically distant from the other H1avNx viruses detected in France, an experimental study was conducted to compare the outcomes of H1avN2 and H1avN1 infections in pigs and evaluate the protection conferred by the only inactivated vaccine currently licensed in Europe containing an HA 1C (clade 1C.2.2) antigen. Infection with H1avN2 induced stronger clinical signs and earlier shedding than H1avN1. The neutralizing antibodies produced following H1avN2 infection were unable to neutralize H1avN1, and vice versa, whereas the cellular-mediated immunity cross-reacted. Vaccination slightly altered the impact of H1avN2 infection at the clinical level, but did not prevent shedding of infectious virus particles. It induced a cellular-mediated immune response towards H1avN2, but did not produce neutralizing antibodies against this virus. As in vaccinated animals, animals previously infected by H1avN1 developed a cross-reacting cellular immune response but no neutralizing antibodies against H1avN2. However, H1avN1 pre-infection induced a better protection against the H1avN2 infection than vaccination, probably due to higher levels of non-neutralizing antibodies and a mucosal immunity. Altogether, these results showed that the new H1avN2 genotype induced a severe respiratory infection and that the actual vaccine was less effective against this H1avN2-HA 1C.2.4 than against H1avN1-HA 1C.2.1, which may have contributed to the H1avN2 epizootic and dissemination in pig farms in France.

Pulmonary MicroRNA expression after heterologous challenge with swine influenza A virus (H1N2) in immunized and non-immunized pigs.

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) contribute to post-transcriptional modulation of the host response during influenza A virus (IAV) infection and may be involved in shaping disease severity. Differential disease severity was achieved in two groups of pigs by immunization of one group with a commercial swine IAV vaccine prior to heterologous IAV (H1N2) challenge of both groups. Lung tissue was harvested 1, 3, and 14 days after challenge and miRNA expression was quantified. Gene Ontology term enrichment analysis was employed to examine the functional relevance of genes potentially regulated by differentially expressed miRNAs in pigs with varying degrees of disease severity following IAV infection. Results suggested that the miRNA response associated with less severe disease may modulate host mechanisms essential for viral life cycle, e.g. transcription, translation, and protein trafficking. During more severe disease, miRNA-mediated regulation may focus on dampening virus-specific processes e.g. virion assembly and viral protein processing, and controlling host metabolism.

Pandemic Risk Assessment for Swine Influenza A Virus in Comparative In Vitro and In Vivo Models.

Swine influenza A viruses pose a public health concern as novel and circulating strains occasionally spill over into human hosts, with the potential to cause disease. Crucial to preempting these events is the use of a threat assessment framework for human populations. However, established guidelines do not specify which animal models or in vitro substrates should be used. We completed an assessment of a contemporary swine influenza isolate, A/swine/GA/A27480/2019 (H1N2), using animal models and human cell substrates. Infection studies in vivo revealed high replicative ability and a pathogenic phenotype in the swine host, with replication corresponding to a complementary study performed in swine primary respiratory epithelial cells. However, replication was limited in human primary cell substrates. This contrasted with our findings in the Calu-3 cell line, which demonstrated a replication profile on par with the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus. These data suggest that the selection of models is important for meaningful risk assessment.

Detection and Characterization of Influenza A Virus Endemic Circulation in Suckling and Nursery Pigs Originating from Vaccinated Farms in the Same Production System.

Inactivated influenza A virus (IAV) vaccines help reduce clinical disease in suckling piglets, although endemic infections still exist. The objective of this study was to evaluate the detection of IAV in suckling and nursery piglets from IAV-vaccinated sows from farms with endemic IAV infections. Eight nasal swab collections were obtained from 135 two-week-old suckling piglets from four farms every other week from March to September 2013. Oral fluid samples were collected from the same group of nursery piglets. IAV RNA was detected in 1.64% and 31.01% of individual nasal swabs and oral fluids, respectively. H1N2 was detected most often, with sporadic detection of H1N1 and H3N2. Whole-genome sequences of IAV isolated from suckling piglets revealed an H1 hemagglutinin (HA) from the 1B.2.2.2 clade and N2 neuraminidase (NA) from the 2002A clade. The internal gene constellation of the endemic H1N2 was TTTTPT with a pandemic lineage matrix. The HA gene had 97.59% and 97.52% nucleotide and amino acid identities, respectively, to the H1 1B.2.2.2 used in the farm-specific vaccine. A similar H1 1B.2.2.2 was detected in the downstream nursery. These data demonstrate the low frequency of IAV detection in suckling piglets and downstream nurseries from farms with endemic infections in spite of using farm-specific IAV vaccines in sows.

The evolution, pathogenicity and transmissibility of quadruple reassortant H1N2 swine influenza virus in China: A potential threat to public health.

Swine are regarded as "intermediate hosts" or "mixing vessels" of influenza viruses, capable of generating strains with pandemic potential. From 2020 to 2021, we conducted surveillance on swine H1N2 influenza (swH1N2) viruses in swine farms located in Guangdong, Yunnan, and Guizhou provinces in southern China, as well as Henan and Shandong provinces in northern China. We systematically analyzed the evolution and pathogenicity of swH1N2 isolates, and characterized their replication and transmission abilities. The isolated viruses are quadruple reassortant H1N2 viruses containing genes from pdm/09 H1N1 (PB2, PB1, PA and NP genes), triple-reassortant swine (NS gene), Eurasian Avian-like (HA and M genes), and recent human H3N2 (NA gene) lineages. The NA, PB2, and NP of SW/188/20 and SW/198/20 show high gene similarities to A/Guangdong/Yue Fang277/2017 (H3N2). The HA gene of swH1N2 exhibits a high evolutionary rate. The five swH1N2 isolates replicate efficiently in human, canine, and swine cells, as well as in the turbinate, trachea, and lungs of mice. A/swine/Shandong/198/2020 strain efficiently replicates in the respiratory tract of pigs and effectively transmitted among them. Collectively, these current swH1N2 viruses possess zoonotic potential, highlighting the need for strengthened surveillance of swH1N2 viruses.

A case of swine influenza A(H1N2)v in England, November 2023.

Under International Health Regulations from 2005, a human infection caused by a novel influenza A virus variant is considered an event that has potential for high public health impact and is immediately notifiable to the World Health Organisation. We here describe the clinical, epidemiological and virological features of a confirmed human case of swine influenza A(H1N2)v in England detected through community respiratory virus surveillance. Swabbing and contact tracing helped refine public health risk assessment, following this unusual and unexpected finding.

Heterologous prime-boost H1N1 vaccination exacerbates disease following challenge with a mismatched H1N2 influenza virus in the swine model.

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) pose a significant threat to both human and animal health. Developing IAV vaccine strategies able to elicit broad heterologous protection against antigenically diverse IAV strains is pivotal in effectively controlling the disease. The goal of this study was to examine the immunogenicity and protective efficacy of diverse H1N1 influenza vaccine strategies including monovalent, bivalent, and heterologous prime-boost vaccination regimens, against a mismatched H1N2 swine influenza virus. Five groups were homologous prime-boost vaccinated with either an oil-adjuvanted whole-inactivated virus (WIV) monovalent A/swine/Georgia/27480/2019 (GA19) H1N2 vaccine, a WIV monovalent A/sw/Minnesota/A02636116/2021 (MN21) H1N1 vaccine, a WIV monovalent A/California/07/2009 (CA09) H1N1, a WIV bivalent vaccine composed of CA09 and MN21, or adjuvant only (mock-vaccinated group). A sixth group was prime-vaccinated with CA09 WIV and boosted with MN21 WIV (heterologous prime-boost group). Four weeks post-boost pigs were intranasally and intratracheally challenged with A/swine/Georgia/27480/2019, an H1N2 swine IAV field isolate. Vaccine-induced protection was evaluated based on five critical parameters: (i) hemagglutination inhibiting (HAI) antibody responses, (ii) clinical scores, (iii) virus titers in nasal swabs and respiratory tissue homogenates, (iv) BALf cytology, and (v) pulmonary pathology. While all vaccination regimens induced seroprotective titers against homologous viruses, heterologous prime-boost vaccination failed to enhance HAI responses against the homologous vaccine strains compared to monovalent vaccine regimens and did not expand the scope of cross-reactive antibody responses against antigenically distinct swine and human IAVs. Mismatched vaccination regimens not only failed to confer clinical and virological protection post-challenge but also exacerbated disease and pathology. In particular, heterologous-boosted pigs showed prolonged clinical disease and increased pulmonary pathology compared to mock-vaccinated pigs. Our results demonstrated that H1-specific heterologous prime-boost vaccination, rather than enhancing cross-protection, worsened the clinical outcome and pathology after challenge with the antigenically distant A/swine/Georgia/27480/2019 strain.

Genetic diversification patterns in swine influenza A virus (H1N2) in vaccinated and nonvaccinated animals.

Influenza A viruses (IAVs) are characterized by having a segmented genome, low proofreading polymerases, and a wide host range. Consequently, IAVs are constantly evolving in nature causing a threat to animal and human health. In 2009 a new human pandemic IAV strain arose in Mexico because of a reassortment between two strains previously circulating in pigs; Eurasian "avian-like" (EA) swine H1N1 and "human-like" H1N2, highlighting the importance of swine as adaptation host of avian to human IAVs. Nowadays, although of limited use, a trivalent vaccine, which include in its formulation H1N1, H3N2, and, H1N2 swine IAV (SIAV) subtypes, is one of the most applied strategies to reduce SIAV circulation in farms. Protection provided by vaccines is not complete, allowing virus circulation, potentially favoring viral evolution. The evolutionary dynamics of SIAV quasispecies were studied in samples collected at different times from 8 vaccinated and 8 nonvaccinated pigs, challenged with H1N2 SIAV. In total, 32 SIAV genomes were sequenced by next-generation sequencing, and subsequent variant-calling genomic analysis was carried out. Herein, a total of 364 de novo single nucleotide variants (SNV) were found along all genetic segments in both experimental groups. The nonsynonymous substitutions proportion found was greater in vaccinated animals suggesting that H1N2 SIAV was under positive selection in this scenario. The impact of each substitution with an allele frequency greater than 5% was hypothesized according to previous literature, particularly in the surface glycoproteins hemagglutinin and neuraminidase. The H1N2 SIAV quasispecies evolution capacity was evidenced, observing different evolutionary trends in vaccinated and nonvaccinated animals.

Immunological profile of mice immunized with a polyvalent virosome-based influenza vaccine.

BACKGROUND: Influenza A virus (IAV) causes respiratory disease in pigs and is a major concern for public health. Vaccination of pigs is the most successful measure to mitigate the impact of the disease in the herds. Influenza-based virosome is an effective immunomodulating carrier that replicates the natural antigen presentation pathway and has tolerability profile due to their purity and biocompatibility. METHODS: This study aimed to develop a polyvalent virosome influenza vaccine containing the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase proteins derived from the swine IAVs (swIAVs) H1N1, H1N2 and H3N2 subtypes, and to investigate its effectiveness in mice as a potential vaccine for swine. Mice were immunized with two vaccine doses (1 and 15 days), intramuscularly and intranasally. At 21 days and eight months later after the second vaccine dose, mice were euthanized. The humoral and cellular immune responses in mice vaccinated intranasally or intramuscularly with a polyvalent influenza virosomal vaccine were investigated. RESULTS: Only intramuscular vaccination induced high hemagglutination inhibition (HI) titers. Seroconversion and seroprotection (> 4-fold rise in HI antibody titers, reaching a titer of ≥ 1:40) were achieved in 80% of mice (intramuscularly vaccinated group) at 21 days after booster immunization. Virus-neutralizing antibody titers against IAV were detected at 8 months after vaccination, indicating long-lasting immunity. Overall, mice immunized with the virosome displayed greater ability for B, effector-T and memory-T cells from the spleen to respond to H1N1, H1N2 and H3N2 antigens. CONCLUSIONS: All findings showed an efficient immune response against IAVs in mice vaccinated with a polyvalent virosome-based influenza vaccine.

Introductions of Human-Origin Seasonal H3N2, H1N2 and Pre-2009 H1N1 Influenza Viruses to Swine in Brazil.

In South America, the evolutionary history of influenza A virus (IAV) in swine has been obscured by historically low levels of surveillance, and this has hampered the assessment of the zoonotic risk of emerging viruses. The extensive genetic diversity of IAV in swine observed globally has been attributed mainly to bidirectional transmission between humans and pigs. We conducted surveillance in swine in Brazil during 2011-2020 and characterized 107 H1N1, H1N2, and H3N2 IAVs. Phylogenetic analysis based on HA and NA segments revealed that human seasonal IAVs were introduced at least eight times into swine in Brazil since the mid-late 1980s. Our analyses revealed three genetic clades of H1 within the 1B lineage originated from three distinct spillover events, and an H3 lineage that has diversified into three genetic clades. The N2 segment from human seasonal H1N2 and H3N2 viruses was introduced into swine six times and a single introduction of an N1 segment from the human H1N1 virus was identified. Additional analysis revealed further reassortment with H1N1pdm09 viruses. All these introductions resulted in IAVs that apparently circulate only in Brazilian herds. These results reinforce the significant contributions of human IAVs to the genetic diversity of IAV in swine and reiterate the importance of surveillance of IAV in pigs.

Determining Existing Human Population Immunity as Part of Assessing Influenza Pandemic Risk.

Zoonotic influenza infections continue to threaten human health. Ongoing surveillance and risk assessment of animal viruses are needed for pandemic preparedness, and population immunity is an important component of risk assessment. We determined age-stratified hemagglutinin inhibition seroprevalence against 5 swine influenza viruses circulating in Hong Kong and Guangzhou in China. Using hemagglutinin inhibition seroprevalence and titers, we modeled the effect of population immunity on the basic reproduction number (R0) if each virus were to become transmissible among humans. Among 353 individual serum samples, we reported low seroprevalence for triple-reassortant H1N2 and Eurasian avian-like H1N1 influenza viruses, which would reduce R0 by only 18%-20%. The smallest R0 needed to cause a pandemic was 1.22-1.24, meaning existing population immunity would be insufficient to block the spread of these H1N1 or H1N2 variants. For human-origin H3N2, existing population immunity could suppress R0 by 47%, thus reducing pandemic risk.

Human infection with a reassortant swine-origin influenza A(H1N2)v virus in Taiwan, 2021.

BACKGROUND: Influenza A virus infections occur in different species, causing mild-to-severe symptoms that lead to a heavy disease burden. H1N1, H1N2 and H3N2 are major subtypes of swine influenza A viruses in pigs and occasionally infect humans. METHODS: A case infected by novel influenza virus was found through laboratory surveillance system for influenza viruses. Clinical specimens were tested by virus culture and/or real-time RT-PCR. The virus was identified and characterized by gene sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. RESULTS: In 2021, for the first time in Taiwan, an influenza A(H1N2)v virus was isolated from a 5-year old girl who was suffering from fever, runny nose and cough. The isolated virus was designated A/Taiwan/1/2021(H1N2)v. Full-genome sequencing and phylogenetic analyses revealed that A/Taiwan/1/2021(H1N2)v is a novel reassortant virus containing hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) gene segments derived from swine influenza A(H1N2) viruses that may have been circulating in Taiwan for decades, and the other 6 internal genes (PB2, PB2, PA, NP, M and NS) are from human A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses. CONCLUSION: Notably, the HA and NA genes of A/Taiwan/1/2021(H1N2)v separately belong to specific clades that are unique for Taiwanese swine and were proposed to be introduced from humans in different time periods. Bidirectional transmission between humans and swine contributes to influenza virus diversity and poses the next pandemic threat.