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AIMS: Previous studies have reported inconsistent findings regarding the association between post-traumatic stress (PTS) and post-traumatic growth (PTG). Three major issues could account for this inconsistency: (1) the lack of information about mental health problems before the disaster, (2) the concept of PTG is still under scrutiny for potentially being an illusionary perception of personal growth and (3) the overlooking of PTS comorbidities as time-dependent confounding factors. To address these issues, we explored the associations of PTS and PTG with trauma-related diseases and examined the association between PTS and PTG using marginal structural models to address time-dependent confounding, considering pre-disaster covariates, among older survivors of the 2011 Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. METHODS: Seven months before the disaster, the baseline survey was implemented to ask older adults about their health in a city located 80 km west of the epicentre. After the disaster, we implemented follow-up surveys approximately every 3 years to collect information about PTS and comorbidities (depressive symptoms, smoking and drinking). We asked respondents about their PTG in the 2022 survey (n = 1,489 in the five-wave panel data). RESULTS: PTG was protectively associated with functional disability (coefficient -0.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.82, -0.12, P < 0.01) and cognitive decline assessed by trained investigators (coefficient -0.07, 95% CI -0.11, -0.03, P < 0.01) and physicians (coefficient -0.06, 95% CI -0.11, -0.02, P < 0.01), while PTS was not significantly associated with them. Severely affected PTS (binary variable) was associated with higher PTG scores, even after adjusting for depressive symptoms, smoking and drinking as time-dependent confounders (coefficient 0.35, 95% CI 0.24, 0.46, P < 0.01). We also found that an ordinal variable of the PTS score had an inverse U-shaped association with PTG. CONCLUSION: PTG and PTS were differentially associated with functional and cognitive disabilities. Thus, PTG might not simply be a cognitive bias among survivors with severe PTS. The results also indicated that the number of symptoms in PTS had an inverse U-shaped association with PTG. Our findings provided robust support for the theory of PTG, suggesting that moderate levels of psychological struggles (i.e., PTS) are essential for achieving PTG, whereas intense PTS may hinder the attainment of PTG. From a clinical perspective, interventions that encourage social support could be beneficial in achieving PTG by facilitating deliberate rumination.
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Desastres , Terremotos , Crecimiento Psicológico Postraumático , Trastornos por Estrés Postraumático , Sobrevivientes , Tsunamis , Humanos , Trastornos por Estrés Postraumático/psicología , Trastornos por Estrés Postraumático/epidemiología , Anciano , Femenino , Masculino , Sobrevivientes/psicología , Sobrevivientes/estadística & datos numéricos , Japón/epidemiología , Estudios Longitudinales , Depresión/epidemiología , Depresión/psicología , Comorbilidad , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Persona de Mediana EdadRESUMEN
There is a knowledge gap regarding the link between disaster exposure and adolescent mental health problems in developing countries. This study examines the case of Sri Lanka to investigate (a) the immediate and long-term mental health impact of the 2004 tsunami disaster on adolescents and (b) the potential moderating effects of unique cultural and family practices that prevail in Sri Lanka. This study used a random sample of 160 adolescents (ages 12-19) and their mothers who were exposed to the tsunami disaster while living in a southern Sri Lankan village and provided prospective data immediately after the disaster (2005) and three years later (2008). A cross-culturally validated instrument assessed adolescent-mother dyads' tsunami exposure, stressful loss, family cultural rituals and familism, and adolescent mental health. Structural equation modeling analysis showed that exposure and perceptions of tsunami-induced stressful experiences were associated with early and later mental health problems in adolescents. In addition, this study found that unique cultural practices and familism moderated the link between adolescent tsunami exposure, stressful experiences, and levels of PTSD and depressive symptoms. The findings of this study could be utilized to develop prevention and intervention programs that are contextually and culturally valid and empirically supported, which would be more effective for trauma-exposed adolescents in developing countries.
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Adaptación Psicológica , Desastres , Salud Mental , Tsunamis , Humanos , Adolescente , Sri Lanka , Femenino , Masculino , Niño , Adulto Joven , Trastornos por Estrés Postraumático/psicología , Cultura , Estrés Psicológico/psicología , Estudios Prospectivos , Madres/psicología , Habilidades de AfrontamientoRESUMEN
An often-overlooked question of the biodiversity crisis is how natural hazards contribute to species extinction risk. To address this issue, we explored how four natural hazards, earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, and volcanoes, overlapped with the distribution ranges of amphibians, birds, mammals, and reptiles that have either narrow distributions or populations with few mature individuals. To assess which species are at risk from these natural hazards, we combined the frequency and magnitude of each natural hazard to estimate their impact. We considered species at risk if they overlapped with regions where any of the four natural hazards historically occurred (n = 3,722). Those species with at least a quarter of their range subjected to a high relative impact were considered at high risk (n = 2,001) of extinction due to natural hazards. In total, 834 reptiles, 617 amphibians, 302 birds, and 248 mammals were at high risk and they were mainly distributed on islands and in the tropics. Hurricanes (n = 983) and earthquakes (n = 868) affected most species, while tsunamis (n = 272), and volcanoes (n = 171) affected considerably fewer. The region with the highest number of species at high risk was the Pacific Ring of Fire, especially due to volcanoes, earthquakes, and tsunamis, while hurricane-related high-risk species were concentrated in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and northwestern Pacific Ocean. Our study provides important information regarding the species at risk due to natural hazards and can help guide conservation attention and efforts to safeguard their survival.
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Biodiversidad , Extinción Biológica , Animales , Aves , Mamíferos , Reptiles , Terremotos , Tormentas Ciclónicas , Tsunamis , Anfibios , Erupciones Volcánicas , Desastres NaturalesRESUMEN
Chinese humanitarian actors have worked frequently with the Chinese diaspora in disaster-affected areas, but little, if any, research has been conducted into the important role of the diaspora in disaster response and humanitarian assistance. This paper investigates what local knowledge the Chinese diaspora has offered to humanitarian actors from the People's Republic of China (PRC), and how this has contributed to their effectiveness. Based on a case study of the semi-autonomous Indonesian province of Aceh in the aftermath of the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, this paper argues that the diaspora can serve as a linchpin in local and international humanitarian action. It can do so by strengthening networks and bringing together local ethnic communities, local governments, and the PRC's humanitarian actors, while also offering local knowledge in the form of contextual memory. Such local knowledge may have to be fully utilised to address any underlying ethnic tensions in disaster-affected areas.
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Altruismo , Sistemas de Socorro , Tsunamis , Humanos , Sistemas de Socorro/organización & administración , China , Desastres , Indonesia , Cooperación Internacional , Pueblos del Este de AsiaRESUMEN
AIM: This study examines whether changes in physical activity (PA) during the first year after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (2011-2012) contributed to preventing the onset of future frailty among older survivors of the disaster. METHODS: This study tracked 2561 physically active Japanese survivors aged ≥ 65 years (43.6% men; mean age 72.9 years) who had completed self-administered questionnaires in 2011 and 2012. PA levels for participants were classified into four categories based on ≥23 and <23 metabolic equivalent hours/week in 2011 and 2012: "consistently low," "decreasing," "increasing," and "consistently high." Frailty was defined as a Kihon Checklist score ≥ 5, which is used in the long-term care insurance system in Japan. Hazard ratios were calculated for the onset of frailty using a Cox proportional hazards model that fitted the proportional sub-distribution hazards regression model with weights for competing risks of death. RESULTS: From 2012 to 2018, 283 men and 490 women developed frailty. Men with consistently high or increasing PA during the first year after the disaster had a lower risk of frailty. Furthermore, even increasing PA by walking for just 30 min/day prevented future frailty in men; however, this association between a change in PA and the decreased risk of frailty was not observed in women. CONCLUSIONS: Older men who remained physically active or resumed PA at an early stage and at a low intensity, even after being physically inactive owing to the disaster, were able to prevent future frailty. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2024; 24: 563-570.
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Terremotos , Ejercicio Físico , Anciano Frágil , Fragilidad , Sobrevivientes , Humanos , Anciano , Masculino , Femenino , Japón/epidemiología , Fragilidad/epidemiología , Sobrevivientes/estadística & datos numéricos , Anciano Frágil/estadística & datos numéricos , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Encuestas y Cuestionarios , Evaluación Geriátrica , Desastres , Tsunamis , Modelos de Riesgos ProporcionalesRESUMEN
Despite many discussions on the impacts of natural disasters on fertility outcomes, their implications for fertility preferences as a mechanism remain unexplored. This study proposes that natural disasters could promote fertility preferences by reinforcing traditional values. The empirical analysis relies on a post-tsunami longitudinal survey of individuals in the provinces of Aceh and North Sumatra in Indonesia frankenberg2020study. Out of the 28,376 survey respondents, our sample considers around 10,700 individuals aged 15 or more, whose responses are available for the variables used in the estimation. The results from individual-level cross-sectional regressions suggest that the ideal number of children increased with the extent of tsunami damage in that region. The increased fertility preference was more pronounced for people with greater religiosity and those who strengthened their family ties after the tsunami, supporting that the shift in fertility preference was intertwined with the rise of traditional values. For policymakers, our findings raise the need to consider the potentially lasting implications of shifts in cultural attitudes toward fertility beyond immediate post-disaster relief efforts. To address the limitations of our cross-sectional evidence, future research will need to investigate the dynamic relationship between fertility preferences and natural disasters using alternative data.
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Tsunamis , Humanos , Indonesia , Femenino , Adulto , Estudios Transversales , Masculino , Adolescente , Fertilidad , Desastres Naturales , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Longitudinales , Composición Familiar , Encuestas y CuestionariosRESUMEN
Geological evidence, such as tsunami deposits, is crucial for studying the largest rupture zone of the Kuril Trench in Hokkaido, Japan, due to its poor historical record. Although 17th-century tsunami deposits are widely distributed across Hokkaido, the presence of multiple wave sources during that period, including the collapse of Mt. Komagatake, complicates the correlation with their wave sources. Understanding the regional distribution of these tsunami deposits can provide valuable data to estimate the magnitude of megathrust earthquakes in the Kuril Trench. The northern part of Hidaka, Hokkaido, where tsunamis from multiple wave sources are expected to overlap, is distant from the Kuril Trench. To clarify the depositional history of tsunami deposits in such distal areas, evaluating the influence of the depositional environments on the event layer preservation becomes even more critical. We conducted field surveys in Kabari, located in the northern Hidaka region, identifying three sand layers from the 10th to the 17th century and two layers dating beyond 2.3 thousand years ago. The depositional ages of most sand layers potentially correlate with tsunami deposits resulting from the Kuril Trench earthquakes. Utilizing reconstructed paleo-sea level data, we estimated that most sand layers reached approximately 2 m in height. However, it is noteworthy that the latest sand layer from the 17th century exhibited an unusual distribution, more than 3 m in height. This suggests a different wave source as the Mt. Komagatake collapse. The discovery of multiple sand layers and their distributions is crucial to constraining the maximum magnitude of giant earthquakes in the Kuril Trench and understanding the volcanic tsunami events related to Mt. Komagatake.
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Terremotos , Tsunamis , Japón , Arena , GeologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Indonesia is located within the Asia-Pacific Ring of Fire, so natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, floods, and landslides are common. Preparedness is essential to prevent many casualties due to various disasters. PROBLEM: The Aceh, Indonesia earthquake and tsunami in 2004 was one of the most devastating disasters since the 1990s. Some of the victims were children. This is because there was no pattern of preparedness in dealing with disasters when the incident took place; even the word tsunami was not familiar in Indonesia at that time. Thus, the preparation of a disaster preparedness and safety curriculum began to be implemented in Indonesia after the Aceh earthquake and tsunami. CONCLUSION: The disaster preparedness and safety curriculum in early childhood education is developed in accordance with the potential and characteristics of the school area. Basic disaster material provided concepts, characteristics and threats, maps, ways of overcoming, and disaster preparedness and security. Facilities and infrastructure supporting disaster preparedness learning used disaster puzzles, disaster posters, songs about disasters, and prayers asking God for help to be protected from disasters.
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Curriculum , Planificación en Desastres , Humanos , Indonesia , Preescolar , Niño , Terremotos , TsunamisRESUMEN
A moment magnitude (Mw) 7.5 earthquake (the Global IDentifire (GLIDE) number: # Q-2024-000001-JPN) struck the Noto Peninsula of Ishikawa Prefecture on 1 January 2024 at 16:10 (Japan Standard Time). The reversed fault, 150 km in length and subducting beneath the peninsula, resulted in maximum seismic intensity 7 shaking, triggered the tsunami, destroyed over 43 thousand buildings, and disrupted roads and lifelines. The disaster claimed 236 deaths, including 15 indirect disaster deaths as of Jan. 28, 2024. There were Disaster Base Hospitals (DBHs) in the region, which survived structurally but suffered from impaired functions and the surge of medical needs of affected people. The disaster medical system of Japan immediately responded and coordinated the hundreds of emergency medical teams (EMTs), i.e., the Japan Disaster Medical Assistance Team (DMAT), from all over the country. Tohoku University Hospital, which had the experience of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE), joined the coordinated response, dispatching a chain of DMATs, which helped the medical and public health coordination in Wajima City. The medical and public health needs included injuries, non-communicable diseases, infectious diseases, mental health issues, and maternal and child health issues, which were similar in the affected communities in GEJE. Although the actual damage far exceeded expectations, the structural retrofitting and business continuity plans of DBHs and the coordinated response of the national disaster medical system enhanced the effectiveness of medical and public health response.
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Planificación en Desastres , Desastres , Terremotos , Niño , Humanos , Hospitales Universitarios , Tsunamis , JapónRESUMEN
Traumatic experiences from disasters have enduring effects on health, both directly and indirectly by influencing health behaviours. Among potential pathways, the impact of disaster-related trauma on dietary patterns has been understudied. This study investigated the relationship between disaster-related trauma and dietary inflammatory index (DII®), and how these relationships differed by gender and whether they prepare meal by themselves or not among older survivors of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (n 1375). Dietary data were collected in 2020 using a brief-type self-administered diet history questionnaire, from which we derived a dietary inflammatory index (DII®) based on twenty-six food/nutrient items, where higher scores indicate pro-inflammatory (i.e. unhealthy) diet. We found that the experience of housing damage due to the earthquake and tsunami was associated with slightly higher DII scores (coef. = 0·38, 95 % CI -0·05, 0·81). Specifically, women who cooked by themselves tended to have higher DII when they experienced housing damage (coef. = 1·33, 95 %CI -0·63, 3·28). On the other hand, loss of friends was associated with a lower DII score (coef. = -0·28, 95 % CI -0·54, -0·01). These findings highlight the importance of providing support to groups who are at increased risk of deterioration in dietary quality in the aftermath of disasters.
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Dieta , Desastres , Terremotos , Inflamación , Sobrevivientes , Tsunamis , Humanos , Femenino , Japón/epidemiología , Masculino , Anciano , Sobrevivientes/psicología , Dieta/efectos adversos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano de 80 o más Años , ViviendaRESUMEN
Fuzzy graphs are very important when we are trying to understand and study complex systems with uncertain and not exact information. Among different types of fuzzy graphs, cubic fuzzy graphs are special due to their ability to represent the membership degree of both vertices and edges using intervals and fuzzy numbers, respectively. To figure out how things are connected in cubic fuzzy graphs, we need to know about cubic α-strong, cubic ß-strong and cubic δ-weak edges. These concepts better help in making decisions, solving problems and analyzing things like transportation, social networks and communication systems. The applicability of connectivity and comprehension of cubic fuzzy graphs have urged us to discuss connectivity in the domain of cubic fuzzy graphs. In this paper, the terms partial cubic α-strong and partial cubic δ-weak edges are introduced for cubic fuzzy graphs. The bounds and exact expression of connectivity index for several cubic fuzzy graphs are estimated. The average connectivity index for cubic fuzzy graphs is also defined and some results pertaining to these concepts are proved in this paper. The results demonstrate that removing some vertices or edges may cause a change in the value of connectivity index or average connectivity index, but the change will not necessarily be related to both values. This paper also defines the concepts of partial cubic connectivity enhancing node and partial cubic connectivity reducing node and some related results are proved. Furthermore, the concepts of cubic α-strong, cubic ß- strong, cubic δ-weak edge, partial cubic α-strong and partial cubic δ-weak edges are utilized to identify areas most affected by a tsunami resulting from an earthquake. Finally, the research findings are compared with the existing methods to demonstrate their suitability and creativity.
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Algoritmos , Tsunamis , TransportesRESUMEN
Space is a feature of all disasters, and it is through decisions on how space is developed, used, and reproduced that disasters manifest themselves. Critical urban theory sees urban space-cities-as an arena of contestation expressed through the relationship between people, power, and the built environment. Cities allow for an unpacking of this process of contestation through the interpretation of various temporal, spatial, social, and physical elements that together create complex issues and 'wicked problems'. In these urban spaces in all their complexity, disasters reveal both the worst injustices and inequalities present in a society. By drawing on three well-known cases-Hurricane Katrina in 2010; the Haiti earthquake in 2010; and the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011-this paper not only explores the opportunities that critical urban theory presents for gaining a deeper understanding of disaster risk creation, but also it encourages disaster scholars to engage with it.
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Desastres , Terremotos , Humanos , Ciudades , Tsunamis , JapónRESUMEN
Among the most vulnerable facilities to tsunami impacts are ports, harbours and marinas. The ability of maritime infrastructure to withstand a disaster and resume operations quickly plays a major factor in the recovery of the local community and economy in the short and long term. Despite this, little established guidance exists to assist the maritime community with addressing their tsunami risk in an actionable, site-specific manner. To close this gap and improve the resilience of its maritime community, Washington State has begun developing tsunami maritime response and mitigation strategies for major ports, harbours and marinas along its 3,200 miles of coastline. These strategies include detailed information about the location's specific tsunami risk, recommended guidance for vessel operators in the area, and tsunami mitigation and response recommendations ranked by their implementation feasibility for the maritime entity in question. Most importantly, the strategies are created through close collaboration with local key stakeholders, subject matter experts, local emergency management and state agencies to ensure a final deliverable that is accurate, thorough and, above all, useful to the local maritime entity and its tenants and users. As this paper will discuss, the lessons learned during the planning and delivery of these strategies provide valuable insight for professionals in the maritime, business continuity and emergency management fields, including how to conduct effective and inclusive stakeholder engagement, identify gaps and opportunities in resilience planning, and establish a deeper understanding of tsunami maritime risk and hazards.
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Planificación en Desastres , Desastres , Tsunamis , Washingtón , Participación de los InteresadosRESUMEN
Coastal dikes are an essential social infrastructure to mitigate tsunami damage. However, there are no clear guidelines on effective dike shapes for reducing tsunami overflow. To examine effective dike shapes, numerical simulations of the amount of tsunami overflow at coastal dikes are conducted with reference to tsunami waveforms caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake. Results reveal the relationship between the dike shape and the amount of the overflow; the mechanism of overflow reduction based on the velocity and water level distribution is also verified. The comparison of the seaward and landward slopes of coastal dikes reveals that the seaward slope has a greater impact on the overflow, and the seaward slope with a vertical wall or a wave return structure reduces the overflow by 5%-30% compared to the 1:2 (26.6°) seaward slope. The landward slope should be determined based on the tsunami scale and the scour related to the dike stability. Since tsunami inflow damages human life and social infrastructure, achieving the overflow reduction without increasing dike height is vital. Our work contributes to rational design guidelines for coastal dikes.
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Terremotos , Tsunamis , Humanos , JapónRESUMEN
Despite significant research on the effects of stress on the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, questions remain regarding long-term impacts of large-scale stressors. Leveraging data on exposure to an unanticipated major natural disaster, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, we provide causal evidence of its imprint on hair cortisol levels fourteen years later. Data are drawn from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery, a population-representative longitudinal study of tsunami survivors who were living along the coast of Aceh, Indonesia, when the tsunami hit. Annual rounds of data, collected before, the year after and 2 y after the disaster provide detailed information about tsunami exposures and self-reported symptoms of post-traumatic stress. Hair samples collected 14 y after the tsunami from a sample of adult participants provide measures of cortisol levels, integrated over several months. Hair cortisol concentrations are substantially and significantly lower among females who were living, at the time of the tsunami, in communities directly damaged by the tsunami, in comparison with similar females living in other, nearby communities. Differences among males are small and not significant. Cortisol concentrations are lowest among those females living in damaged communities who reported elevated post-traumatic stress symptoms persistently for two years after the tsunami, indicating that the negative effects of exposure were largest for them. Low cortisol is also associated with contemporaneous reports of poor self-rated general and psychosocial health. Taken together, the evidence points to dysregulation in the HPA axis and "burnout" among these females fourteen years after exposure to the disaster.
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Agotamiento Psicológico , Sistema Hipotálamo-Hipofisario , Sistema Hipófiso-Suprarrenal , Tsunamis , Adulto , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Hidrocortisona , Sistema Hipotálamo-Hipofisario/fisiología , Océano Índico , Estudios Longitudinales , Sistema Hipófiso-Suprarrenal/fisiología , Agotamiento Psicológico/fisiopatologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Disaster-related relocation is associated with depression and post-traumatic stress disorder, especially in older adults. Disaster-related relocation often deprives survivors of opportunities for social group participation, potentially deteriorating their mental health. On the contrary, the relocation could also be an opportunity for optimizing social relationships, ending/reducing unwanted participation. This study examined the potential mediation effects of changing participation for the link of disaster-related relocation to mental health. METHODS: We analyzed a pre-post disaster dataset of functionally independent older adults from the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study. Following the 2013 survey, a follow-up survey was conducted seven months after the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (n = 828). RESULTS: The causal mediation analyses indicated that compared to no relocation, the relative risk for experiencing major depressive episodes among those relocating to temporary housing was 3.79 [95% confidence interval: 1.70-6.64] (natural direct effect). By contrast, the relative risk for those renewing (either ceased or started) group participation was 0.60 [95% CI: 0.34-0.94] (natural indirect effect). CONCLUSIONS: Optimization of social ties according to a renewal of group participation status might have protected older adults in temporary housing against depression.
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Trastorno Depresivo Mayor , Desastres , Terremotos , Humanos , Anciano , Salud Mental , Análisis de Mediación , Japón/epidemiología , TsunamisRESUMEN
We examined whether pre-disaster Sense of Coherence (SOC) mitigated the impact of housing damage on health and well-being of older survivors after the 2011 Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. A panel survey was conducted in a city located 80 km west of the epicenter seven months before and three years after the disaster (3594 respondents). Among respondents with lighter property damage, higher SOC was inversely associated with mental distress (coefficient - 0.29, 95% CI (confidence interval) - 0.39, - 0.19, p < .01), unhappiness (coefficient - 0.33, 95% CI - 0.43, - 0.23, p < .01), low expectation of mutual help (coefficient - 0.17, 95% CI - 0.27, - 0.07, p < .01), and weak community attachment (coefficient - 0.20, 95% CI - 0.30, - 0.11, p < .01). Conversely, among those who experienced housing loss, higher SOC was no longer protectively associated with health and well-being. Loss of generalized resistance resources due to serious damage led to difficulties in stress coping.
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Desastres , Desastres Naturales , Sentido de Coherencia , Humanos , Estudios Prospectivos , Tsunamis , Sobrevivientes , JapónRESUMEN
In this paper, we simulate the economic loss resulting from supply chain disruptions triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) in 2011, applying data from firm-level supply chains and establishment-level attributes to an agent-based model. To enhance the accuracy of the simulation, we extend data and models in previous studies in four ways. First, we identify the damage to production facilities in the disaster-hit regions more accurately by using establishment-level census and survey data and geographic information system (GIS) data on the damages caused by the GEJE and subsequent tsunami. Second, the use of establishment-level data enables us to capture supply chains between non-headquarter establishments in disaster-hit regions and establishments in other regions. Third, we incorporate the effect of power outages after the GEJE on production reduction, which exacerbated the effect of the supply chain disruption, particularly in the weeks immediately after the GEJE. Finally, our model incorporates sectoral heterogeneity by employing sector-specific parameters. Our findings indicate that the extended method can significantly improve the accuracy of predicting the domestic production after the GEJE, particularly due to the first three improvements utilizing various data sources, not because of the use of more sector-specific parameters. Our method can be applied to predict the economic effect of future disasters, such as the Nankai Trough earthquake, on each region more precisely.