Predictive Modeling of Long-Term Prognosis After Resection in Typical Pulmonary Carcinoid: A Machine Learning Perspective.

Typical Pulmonary Carcinoid (TPC) is defined by its slow growth, frequently necessitating surgical intervention. Despite this, the long-term outcomes following tumor resection are not well understood. This study examined the factors impacting Overall Survival (OS) in patients with TPC, leveraging data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database spanning from 2000 to 2018. We employed Lasso-Cox analysis to identify prognostic features and developed various models using Random Forest, XGBoost, and Cox regression algorithms. Subsequently, we assessed model performance using metrics such as Area Under the Curve (AUC), calibration plot, Brier score, and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA). Among the 2687 patients, we identified five clinical features significantly affecting OS. Notably, the Random Forest model exhibited strong performance, achieving 5- and 7-year AUC values of 0.744/0.757 in the training set and 0.715/0.740 in the validation set, respectively, outperforming other models. Additionally, we developed a web-based platform aimed at facilitating easy access to the model. This study presents a machine learning model and a web-based support system for healthcare professionals, assisting in personalized treatment decisions for patients with TPC post-tumor resection.

Segmentectomy and wedge resection are equivalent for the treatment of early-stage pulmonary carcinoid tumors: A retrospective cohort study.

Currently, there is no consensus regarding the extent of surgery for stage I pulmonary carcinoid (PC) tumors, which encompass typical carcinoid (TC) and atypical carcinoid (AC) tumors. Sublobar resection includes segmental resection and wedge resection; the former is regarded as a type of anatomical resection that is better suited for tumor treatment. Therefore, it needs to be further verified whether differences exist in the effects of the two surgical methods on the survival time of patients. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used. The primary endpoints were cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) time. Survival differences were analyzed via the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test. There was no significant difference in survival between the sublobar resection and lobectomy groups after PSM in either the TC or AC tumor groups (all p > 0.05). A total of 1680 patients underwent pulmonary wedge resection (TC: n = 1547, AC: n = 133), and 398 patients underwent segmental resection (TC: n = 365, AC: n = 33). After PSM, there were no statistically significant differences in survival, regardless of whether OS or CSS was considered the primary endpoint (OS: p = 0.337; CSS: p = 0.470). Furthermore, segmental resection did not prolong patient survival time compared with wedge resection in different subgroup analyses on the basis of histology, age, and tumor size (all p > 0.05). Finally, the same results were obtained via multivariate Cox analysis (OS: p = 0.153; HR = 1.21; CSS: p = 0.351, HR = 1.32). Sublobar resection could be considered for patients with early-stage typical or atypical pulmonary carcinoid, provided that a rigorous lymph node evaluation is conducted. If the tumor is distant from the pulmonary hilum, either segmentectomy or wedge resection may be performed depending on the specific location of the tumor and the clinical condition of the patient.

Prognosis of unresected versus resected early-stage pulmonary carcinoid tumors ≤3 cm in size: A population-based study.

PURPOSE: The observation-based prognosis, rather than resection, for small carcinoid tumors is still unclear. This lack of clarity has important implications for counseling elderly patients or patients for whom surgical resection poses a high risk. This study compared the outcomes of observation and surgical resection in patients with pulmonary carcinoid (PC) tumors ≤3 cm in size without metastasis. METHODS: Data of patients with PC tumors with ≤3 cm in diameter and without lymph node and distant metastases were retrieved from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. To reduce the inherent bias of retrospective studies, propensity score matching analysis was performed. Overall survival (OS) and lung carcinoid-specific survival (LCSS) were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier plots. Multivariate analysis was used to determine predictors of LCSS in different size subgroups. RESULTS: In total, 4552 patients with early-stage PCs ≤3 cm in diameter, including 435 (9.56%) who were observed and 4117 (90.44%) treated by surgery, were recruited. Patients with surgery had significantly better OS and LCSS than those who were observed. However, patients with observation had comparable LCSS to those with surgery for PCs with tumor diameters ≤1 cm. Multivariate analysis indicated that surgical resection was an independent prognostic factor for LCSS in 1 cm < tumors ≤2 cm, and 2 cm < tumors ≤3 cm groups, but not for tumors ≤1 cm in diameter. CONCLUSION: Surgical resection of small PCs is associated with a survival advantage over observation. However, for early PCs ≤1 cm in diameter, observation may be considered in patients with high risk for surgical resection.

Prognostic Immunohistochemistry for Ki-67 and OTP on Small Biopsies of Pulmonary Carcinoid Tumors: Ki-67 Index Predicts Progression-free Survival and Atypical Histology.

Prognostic stratification of pulmonary carcinoids into "typical" and "atypical" categories requires examination of large tissue volume. However, there is a need for tools that provide similar prognostic information on small biopsy samples. Ki-67 and OTP immunohistochemistry have shown promising prognostic value in studies of resected pulmonary carcinoids, but prognostic value when using biopsy/cytology specimens is unclear. Ki-67 immunohistochemistry was performed on small biopsy/cytology specimens from pulmonary carcinoid tumors (n=139), and labeling index was scored via automated image analysis of at least 500 cells. OTP immunohistochemistry was performed on 70 cases with sufficient tissue and scored as positive or negative (<20% tumor nuclei staining). Higher Ki-67 index was associated with worse disease-specific progression-free survival (ds-PFS), with 3% and 4% thresholds having similarly strong associations with ds-PFS ( P <0.001, hazard ratio ≥11). Three-year ds-PFS was 98% for patients with Ki-67 <3% and 89% for patients with Ki-67≥3% ( P =0.0006). The optimal Ki-67 threshold for prediction of typical versus atypical carcinoid histology on subsequent resection was 3.21 (AUC 0.68). Negative OTP staining approached significance with atypical carcinoid histology ( P =0.06) but not with ds-PFS ( P =0.24, hazard ratio=3.45), although sample size was limited. We propose that Ki-67 immunohistochemistry may contribute to risk stratification for carcinoid tumor patients based on small biopsy samples. Identification of a 3% hot-spot Ki-67 threshold as optimal for prediction of ds-PFS is notable as a 3% Ki-67 threshold is currently used for gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumor stratification, allowing consideration of a unified classification system across organ systems.

Epidemiology and Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Long-Term Disease-Specific Survival in Patients With Pancreatic Carcinoid Tumor: A SEER-Based Study.

OBJECTIVES: Pancreatic carcinoid tumor (PCT) is described as a malignant form of carcinoid tumors. However, the epidemiology and prognostic factors for PCT are poorly understood. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The data of 2447 PCT patients were included in this study from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and randomly divided into a training cohort (1959) and a validation cohort (488). The epidemiology of PCT was calculated, and independent prognostic factors were identified to construct a prognostic nomogram for predicting long-term disease-specific survival (DSS) among PCT patients. RESULTS: The incidence of PCT increased remarkably from 2000 to 2018. The 1-, 5-, and 10-year DSS rates were 96.4%, 90.3%, and 86.5%, respectively. Age at diagnosis, stage, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors to construct a prognostic nomogram. The C -indices; area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for predicting 1-, 5-, and 10-year DSS, and calibration plots of the nomogram in both cohorts indicated a high discriminatory accuracy, preferable survival predictive ability, and optimal concordances, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of PCT has increased rapidly since 2000. In addition, we established a practical, effective, and accurate prognostic nomogram for predicting the long-term DSS of PCT patients.

Factors Associated With Long-term Survival in Children With Bronchial and Lung Carcinoid Tumors.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Bronchial carcinoids are rare in children and the treatment is based on tumor behavior in adults. The purpose of this study was to determine factors and management strategies associated with long-term survival in the pediatric population using a national cohort. METHODS: Patients aged ≤20 years with bronchial carcinoid tumors were identified in the 2004-2020 National Cancer Database using ICD-O-3 codes. Tumor characteristics and management were compared among typical (TC) and atypical (AC) histological subtypes using Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests. Kaplan-Meier and univariate Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to assess survival. RESULTS: Of 273 patients, 251 (92%) had TCs, and 22(8%) had ACs. The median (IQR) age was 18 (16,19) years. Most patients underwent lobectomy or bilobectomy (67%), followed by sublobar resection (17%), no resection or bronchoscopic excision or ablation (8%), and pneumonectomy (7.7%). Margins were negative in 96%. Lymph node (LN) assessment was performed in 216 patients (84%) with a median (IQR) of 7(3,13) LNs, and 50 (23%) had ≥1 positive LN. There was no difference in age, resection, margin status, LN assessment, or positivity between TC and AC (all p > 00.05). Detection of nodal metastasis did not increase beyond the resection of 1-3 LNs (p = 0.72). Ten-year survival was worse for AC than TC (79% (41, 100) vs 98% (95, 100), HR = 6.9 (95% CI: 1.2-38.3, p = 0.03). Ten-year survival among those with and without LN assessment was 97% (94, 100) vs 91% (81, 100), HR = 4.0, 95% CI: 0.8-19.9, p = 0.09). There were no deaths in those with negative LN while 10-year survival was 89% (72, 100) in those with ≥1 positive LN. CONCLUSION: Among children with bronchial carcinoids, survival is excellent with TC or negative LN. Atypical histology and positive LN have poor survival and should prompt close monitoring. These risk factors may be missed in the absence of surgical resection and lymph node sampling. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III. TYPE OF STUDY: Retrospective Study.

Prognostic nomogram and epidemiological analysis for lung atypical carcinoid: A SEER database and external validation study.

PURPOSE: Our study aims to delineate the epidemiological distribution of pulmonary carcinoids, including atypical carcinoid (AC) and typical carcinoid (TC), identify independent prognostic factors, develop an integrative nomogram and examine the effects of various surgical modalities on atypical carcinoid-specific survival (ACSS). METHODS: Joinpoint regression model and age-group distribution diagram were applied to determine the epidemiological trend of the pulmonary carcinoids. Univariate and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-based Cox regression models were used to identify independent factors, and a nomogram and web-based predictor were developed to evaluate prognosis of AC patients individually. We performed Kaplan-Meier survival analyses to compare the scope of various surgical interventions, with and without G-computation adjustment, utilising restricted mean survival time (RMST) to assess survival disparities. RESULTS: A total of 1132 patients were recruited from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (SEER) and a separate medical centre in China. The mean age of AC patients was 63.4 years and a smoking history was identified in 79.8% of AC patients. Joinpoint analysis shows rising annual rates of new AC and carcinoid cases among lung cancers. Both the proportion of pulmonary TC and AC within the total lung cancer population exhibits an L-shaped trend across successive age groups. The nomogram predicted 1, 3 and 5 years of AC with excellent accuracy and discrimination. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses, conducted both pre- and post-adjustment, demonstrated that sublobar resection's survival outcomes were not inferior to those of lobectomy in patients with stage I-II and stage III disease. CONCLUSION: This study is the first to reveal epidemiological trends in pulmonary carcinoids over the past decade and across various age cohorts. For patients with early-stage AC, sublobar resection may be a viable surgical recommendation. The established nomogram and web-based calculator demonstrated decent accuracy and practicality.

The Cancers-Specific Survival of Metastatic Pulmonary Carcinoids and Sites of Distant Metastasis: A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related deaths and pulmonary carcinoids (PCs) account for almost 2% of all pulmonary malignancies. However, few published articles have reported prognosis and related factors of pulmonary carcinoid patients. MATERIAL AND METHOD: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to collect data of patients diagnosed with metastatic PCs from 2010 to 2016. The prognosis and survival of these patients were compared by employing Cox proportional hazards and the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. RESULTS: A total of 1763 patients were analyzed. The liver (668, 25.6%) was shown to be the most common metastatic site in the isolated organ metastasis cohort, followed by the lung (636, 24.4%), bone (562, 21.6%), and brain (460, 17.6%). Among the patients, the tumor metastasized to a single distant site included the liver, bone, lung, and brain. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) in metastatic PCs is determined by the site of metastasis and the total number of such sites. Pulmonary carcinoid patients with isolated liver metastasis manifested more favorable survival rates in comparison to patients having isolated metastasis in the lung, brain, or bone. The median CSS was 45, 7, 6, 5 months (P = 0.011). The number of distant metastatic sites and the location of distant metastasis were found to be independent risk factors for CSS. For patients with distant isolated metastasis, liver metastasis (P < 0.0001) had better CSS in comparison to those with bone metastasis. When compared to patients whose carcinoids had metastasized to the bones, patients with a brain (P = 0.273) or lung (P = 0.483) metastasis had the same CSS. CONCLUSION: Cancer-specific survival in metastatic PCs depends on the site of metastasis and the total number of such locations. PC patients with isolated liver metastasis manifested more favorable survival in comparison to patients with isolated metastasis in the lung, brain, or bone.

[Retrospective study of lung carcinoid: experience in a third level Spanish hospital]. / Estudio retrospectivo descriptivo sobre el tumor carcinoide pulmonar: experiencia de un centro español de tercer nivel.

INTRODUCTION: Pulmonary carcinoids are relatively rare neuroendocrine neoplasms, accounting for only 1-2% of malignant thoracic tumours. We describe our experience in the management and follow-up of such an infrequent tumour, with special emphasis on possible problems that might arise. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We present a descriptive retrospective study of all patients diagnosed with carcinoid tumour between January 2013 and January 2018. Demographic, histological and clinical data were collected and analyzed. Survival was recorded. SPSS version 21 was used for the statistical analysis. RESULTS: 42 patients with an average age of 66.26 years were included. The mean period of follow-up was 60 months and the average survival 59.12 months. The only statistically significant factor related to an improved survival time was tumour stage at diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Carcinoid tumours are infrequent, which makes the objective collecting of data difficult. For this reason, we hope that the present study will contribute to a better understanding of their evolution.

Prognostic nomogram for predicting long-term cancer-specific survival in patients with lung carcinoid tumors.

BACKGROUND: Lung carcinoid is a rare malignant tumor with poor survival. The current study established a nomogram model for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with lung carcinoid tumors. METHODS: A total of 1956 patients diagnosed with primary lung carcinoid tumors were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The specific predictors of CSS for lung carcinoid tumors were identified and integrated to build a nomogram. Validation of the nomogram was conducted using parameters concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, decision curve analyses (DCAs), and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: Age at diagnosis, grade, histological type, N stage, M stage, surgery of the primary site, radiation of the primary site, and tumor size were independent prognostic factors of CSS. High discriminative accuracy of the nomogram model was shown in the training cohort (C-index = 0.873), which was also testified in the internal validation cohort (C-index = 0.861). In both cohorts, the calibration plots showed good concordance between the predicted and observed CSS at 3, 5, and 10 years. The DCA showed great potential for clinical application. The ROC curve showed superior survival predictive ability of the nomogram model (area under the curve = 0.868). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a practical nomogram that provided independent predictions of CSS for patients with lung carcinoid tumors. This nomogram may have the potential to assist clinicians in prognostic evaluations or developing individualized therapies for patients with this neoplasm.

Proposal of a Panel of Genes Identified by miRNA Profiling as Candidate Prognostic Biomarkers in Lung Carcinoids.

AIM: To validate the prognostic role of a panel of genes previously uncovered by our group to be specific targets of miRNAs differentially expressed in lung carcinoids with aggressive pathological features. METHODS: Four genes, namely, cyclic AMP response element binding protein-1 (CREBP1), activin A receptor type 2B (ACVR2B), LIM homeobox 2 (LHX2), and Krüppel-like factor 12 (KLF12), were identified in a previous study by our group using in silico analysis to be regulated by 3 miRNAs (miR-409-3p, miR-409-5p, and miR-431-5p) that were shown to be downregulated in aggressive lung carcinoids. These genes were analyzed using real-time PCR in a cohort of 102 lung carcinoids. Fifty high-grade lung carcinomas served as control group. Their expression was correlated with the expression of miR-409-3p, miR-409-5p, and miR-431-5p and with clinical pathological parameters and disease-free survival. RESULTS: The expression of all but CREBP1 gene was significantly different between lung carcinoids and high-grade neuroendocrine carcinomas. ACVR2B and LHX2 were significantly inversely correlated with miR-409-3p and miR-409-5p. High levels of ACVR2B and LHX2 were significantly associated with atypical histotype, high tumor grade, and higher proliferation Ki-67 index (all p < 0.05). Low levels of KLF12 were significantly associated with the presence of necrosis and positive nodal status (all p < 0.05). Finally, low KLF12 expression was associated with shorter disease-free survival in lung carcinoids as a whole and in atypical carcinoids, only (all p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: ACVR2B, LHX2, and KFL12 are novel potential biomarkers associated with aggressive features in lung carcinoids.

Typical and Atypical Carcinoid Tumors of the Mediastinum: A Biomarker Analysis of 27 Cases With Clinical Correlation.

Thymic typical and atypical carcinoids are rare and appear to be more aggressive than similar tumors in other sites. We retrospectively analyzed a group of biomarkers that hold therapeutic and prognostic utility, in 27 of these tumors. All cases were immunohistochemically stained with PAX5, MET, CRMP5, paxillin, p21, p27, EZH2, PDL-1, and Ki-67, and then H-scored. Clinicopathologic and survival data were statistically analyzed against staining (χ2 test). Five- and 10-year-survival rates were 53% and 18%, respectively. Mitotic counts ≥4 per 2 mm2 and tumor size ≥5 cm, associated with death of disease (DoD; P = .010 and .016). Ki-67 expression ≥1% associated with DoD (P = .003) and death within 5 years (P = .031). Biomarkers stained tumor cases as follows: PDL-1 = 0%, PAX-5 = 0%, MET = 7.4%, paxillin = 41%, CRMP5 = 78%, p21 = 63%, p27 = 63%, EZH2 = 37%, and MASH1 = 59%. Overall ± staining did not associate with survival or grade. Cases with low CRMP5 H-scores (<80) associated with DoD (P = .002), while CRMP5 H-scores >80 associated with 10-year survival (P = .022). Cases with high MASH1 H-score (>100) associated with DoD (P = .021). Accurate grading and staging remain paramount in predicting clinical outcome. Biomarkers may have significance in subsets of patients and the use of these studies likely should be focused on a more personalize type of approach.

A National Study of Surgically Managed Atypical Pulmonary Carcinoid Tumors.

BACKGROUND: Atypical pulmonary carcinoid tumors represent a subset of non-small cell lung cancer; however, their relative infrequency has left prognosis, management and long-term survival associated with atypical carcinoids, incompletely characterized. METHODS: Patients aged 18 years or more diagnosed with atypical or typical pulmonary carcinoid between 2010 and 2015 within the National Cancer Database were evaluated. Survival was measured using Kaplan-Meier survival and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusting for patient and tumor attributes. RESULTS: A total of 816 atypical and 5688 typical carcinoid patients were identified in the cohort. Patients with atypical carcinoids tended to be older, have larger tumors, and later stage disease. The unadjusted overall 5-year survival for atypical carcinoid patients was 84%, 74%, 52%, and 51% for stages I, II, III, and IV, respectively. The unadjusted 5-year survival for typical carcinoids was 93%, 93%, 89%, and 87% for stages I, II, III, and IV, respectively. Nodal upstaging (ie, lymph node metastases identified in surgical specimens of clinically staged N0 patients) was seen in 16% of atypical and 7% of typical carcinoid patients. Increasing age, comorbidities, and stage were identified as significant predictors of mortality for atypical patients in multivariable analysis. Extent of surgical resection (lobectomy vs sublobar) was not identified as a predictor of survival for atypical carcinoid. CONCLUSIONS: Atypical carcinoid tumors represent a distinct subset of carcinoid tumors, with a tendency toward more aggressive behavior. Further study of the optimal surgical management is warranted.

Prognostic significance for colorectal carcinoid tumors based on the 8th edition TNM staging system.

The aim of our study was to explore the value of the 8th edition TNM staging system on evaluating the prognosis of colorectal carcinoid. Colorectal carcinoid patients between 1988 and 2015 were selected in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database for analysis. About 4286 patients with colorectal carcinoid tumors were identified, of which were carcinoid tumor NOS (n = 1726), neuroendocrine carcinoma (NEC) (n = 1346) and other carcinoid tumor (OCT) (n = 591). Worsening 10-year CSS rates with increasing N status, M status, and SEER historic stage were demonstrated across all three above groups (all P < .05). In carcinoid tumor NOS, significant differences in CSS were found with increasing combined 8th AJCC stages (P < .001), except for that between stage II and stage III (10-year CSS rate: 82.6% vs 84.3%, P = .68). While combined 8th TNM stage in NEC and OTC exhibited greater separations in CSS despite on-going overlaps between groups. For carcinoid tumor NOS, stage II (HR = 3.37; 95% CI: 0.97-11.76), and stage III (HR = 2.09; 95% CI: 0.51-8.66) conferred no significant difference in CSS compared with stage I, while stage IV had an increasing HR of 5.09 (95% CI: 1.08-24.08). Although combined 8th AJCC stage had a good ability to distinguish 10-year CSS of patients with NEC or OCT, detailed 8th AJCC stage did not seem to be applicable. Detailed 8th AJCC categories of advanced stages in all the three groups conferred increased HRs with overlapping CIs. However, in the early and middle status, HRs did not increase with the increase of stages, or there was no difference in HRs between adjacent stages. Combined 8th TNM stage was not practical for judging the survival outcomes of colorectal carcinoid tumor NOS, especially in patients with stages II and III, but it provided useful prognostic information for NEC and OCT. However, for all carcinoid tumors, the prognostic values of detailed 8th AJCC stage were not enough accurate in the clinic. More optimized staging methods should be developed and validated in the future.

Development and Validation of an Individualized Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Patients With Typical Lung Carcinoid Tumors.

OBJECTIVE: We aim to develop and validate an effective nomogram prognostic model for patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors using a large patient cohort from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data from patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors between 2010 and 2015 were selected from the SEER database for retrospective analysis. Univariate and multivariate Cox analysis was performed to clarify independent prognostic factors. Next, a nomogram was formulated to predict the probability of 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS). Concordance indexes (c-index), receiver operating characteristic analysis and calibration curves were used to evaluate the model. RESULTS: The selected patients were randomly divided into a training and a validation cohort. A nomogram was established based on the training cohort. Cox analysis results indicated that age, sex, T stage, N stage, surgery, and bone metastasis were independent variables for OS. All these factors, except surgery, were included in the nomogram model for predicting 3- and 5-year OS. The internally and externally validated c-indexes were 0.787 and 0.817, respectively. For the 3-year survival prediction, receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the areas under the curve in the training and validation cohorts were 0.824 and 0.795, respectively. For the 5-year survival prediction, the area under the curve in the training and validation cohorts were 0.812 and 0.787, respectively. The calibration plots for probability of survival were in good agreement. CONCLUSION: The nomogram brings us closer to personalized medicine and the maximization of predictive accuracy in the prediction of OS in patients with typical lung carcinoid tumors.

Prognostic score for survival with pulmonary carcinoids: the importance of associating clinical with pathological characteristics.

OBJECTIVES: Lung carcinoids (LCs) are staged using the non-small-cell lung cancer tumour/node/metastasis staging system; the possibility of an LC-specific staging system is still being debated. The goal of our study was to construct a composite prognostic score for LC. METHODS: From January 2002 to December 2014, data from 293 patients who underwent surgical treatment for LC in 7 research institutes were retrospectively analysed. A panel of established prognostic factors in addition to lymph node metastasis patterns (single/multiple N1-N2 station, skip metastasis, lobe specific), numbers of lymph nodes resected and the ratio between the numbers of metastatic lymph nodes and the numbers of lymph nodes resected (node ratio) were correlated to overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). The log-hazard ratio (HR), obtained from the Cox model, was used to derive weighting factors for a continuous prognostic index, designed to identify differential outcome risks. The score was dichotomized according to maximally selected log-rank statistics. RESULTS: Pathological analysis showed typical carcinoids in 223 (76.1%) and atypical carcinoids in 70 (23.9%) patients; the tumour/node/metastasis pattern was stage I in 72.4%, stage II in 18.1%, stage III in 9.5% and stage IV in 0.03% cases. The median numbers of lymph nodes resected was 12 (range 0-53); hilar and mediastinal node metastases were identified in 14% and 6.8% of cases, respectively. Overall, the 5-year OS and 5-year DFS rates were 90.6% and 76.7%, respectively. At multivariable analysis, sex, age, pathological T stage and node ratio were significantly related to a better OS; age, histological type, pathological T stage and node ratio were related to DFS. These factors were used to generate the prognostic score, which showed statistically significant differences between the high-risk and low-risk groups: 5-year OS = 96.6% if score <3.1 vs 63.5% if score ≥3.1 [P < 0.0001; HR 17.56, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.45-56.53]; 5-year DFS 92.3% if score <1.5 vs 52.5% if score ≥ 1.5 (P < 0.0001; HR 7.95, 95% CI 3.48-18.16). CONCLUSIONS: The proposed prognostic scores seem to be effective in predicting outcomes for patients with LCs.

Cytoreduction and Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy (HIPEC) Versus Surgery Without HIPEC for Goblet-Cell Carcinoids and Mixed Adenoneuroendocrine Carcinomas: Propensity Score-Matched Analysis of Centers in the Netherlands and Belgium.

BACKGROUND: The value of cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) for patients with peritoneally metastasized goblet-cell carcinoids (GCCs) and mixed adenoneuroendocrine carcinomas (MANECs) is currently unclear. We compared outcomes of CRS-HIPEC to surgery alone for peritoneally metastasized GCCs and MANECs. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Two cohorts were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (n = 569): patients with peritoneally metastasized GCCs and MANECs treated with CRS-HIPEC in Dutch and Belgian centers (n = 45), and patients treated with surgery alone. Primary outcome was overall survival (OS). Secondary outcomes were morbidity and hospital mortality. After propensity score matching, OS was compared in univariate and multivariate analyses. A systematic literature review was conducted following the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses) guidelines from database inception to June 25, 2018. RESULTS: After matching for sex, tumor stage, lymph node stage, and liver metastases, CRS-HIPEC was associated with improved median OS in the combined GCC and MANEC group and the separate GCC subgroup in univariate (GCC + MANEC: 39 vs. 12 months, P < .001; GCC: 39 vs. 12 months, P = .017) and multivariate analysis (GCC + MANEC: hazard ratio 4.27, 95% confidence interval 1.88-9.66, P = .001; GCC: hazard ratio 2.77, 95% confidence interval 1.06-7.26, P = .038). Acceptable grade III-IV morbidity (17.5%) and mortality (0) were seen after CRS-HIPEC. The literature review supported these findings. CONCLUSION: CRS-HIPEC is associated with substantial survival benefit in patients with peritoneally metastasized GCCs and MANECs compared to surgery alone and is a safe treatment option. These data support centralized care of GCC and MANEC patients with peritoneal spread in expert centers offering CRS-HIPEC.

Clinicopathological analysis of appendiceal goblet cell adenocarcinoma with peritoneal metastasis: World Health Organization grade predicts survival following cytoreductive surgery with intraperitoneal chemotherapy.

AIMS: Peritoneal spread is the most common route of metastasis in appendiceal goblet cell adenocarcinoma. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic significance of the World Health Organization (WHO) 5th edition grading criteria in peritoneal metastases of goblet cell adenocarcinoma. METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated the clinicopathological features and survival of 63 patients with peritoneal metastasis of goblet cell adenocarcinoma who underwent cytoreductive surgery with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemoperfusion (CRS-HIPEC), stratified according to the WHO 5th edition and the Tang et al. grading schemes. The patients were also compared with 120 patients with peritoneal metastasis of appendiceal mucinous neoplasia. Most (73%) peritoneal metastases of goblet cell adenocarcinoma were WHO Grade 3 (G3), there being fewer cases of Grade 2 (G2) (16%) and Grade 1 (G1) (11%) disease. No significant differences in overall survival were observed between WHO G1 and G2 tumours or between the three Tang grades. In the multivariable model of survival, WHO G3 [hazard ratio (HR) 2.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-7.70] and the presence of >50% extracellular mucin (HR 2.30, 95% CI 1.09-4.88) were associated with reduced overall survival for patients with goblet cell adenocarcinoma. As compared with patients with peritoneal metastasis of mucinous neoplasia, patients with goblet cell adenocarcinoma had significantly reduced survival (median overall survival of 37 months versus 102 months, P < 0.001), which was attributed to the reduced survival of patients with G1/G2 goblet cell adenocarcinoma as compared with patients with G1 mucinous neoplasia (median survival of 98 months versus 204 months, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Grade of peritoneal goblet cell adenocarcinoma determined according to the WHO 5th edition criteria is a clinically relevant measure that independently predicts survival in patients treated with CRS-HIPEC.

Development and Validation of Prognostic Nomograms for Patients with Duodenal Neuroendocrine Neoplasms.

BACKGROUND This study was designed to predict prognosis of patients with primary duodenal neuroendocrine neoplasms (D-NENs) by developing nomograms. MATERIAL AND METHODS Patients diagnosed with D-NENs between 1988 and 2015 were queried from the SEER database and a total of 965 appropriate cases were randomly separated into the training and validation sets. Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to generated survival curves, and the difference among the groups was assessed by the log-rank test. Independent prognostic indicators were acquired by Cox regression analysis, and were used to develop predictive overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) nomograms. Harrell's concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the efficacy of nomograms. Tumor stage was regarded as a benchmark in predicting prognostic compared with the nomograms built in this study. RESULTS The C-index was 0.739 (0.690-0.788) and 0.859 (0.802-0.916) for OS and CSS nomograms, respectively. Calibration curves exhibited obvious consistency between the nomograms and the actual observations. In addition, C-index, AUC, and DCA were better than tumor stage in the evaluative performance of nomograms. CONCLUSIONS The nomograms were able to predict the 1-, 5-, and 10-year OS and CSS for D-NENs patients. The good performance of these nomograms suggest that they can be used for evaluating the prognosis of patients with D-NENs and can facilitate individualized treatment in clinical practice.

Prognosis in pathology: Are we "prognosticating" or only establishing correlations between independent variables and survival? A study with various analytics cautions about the overinterpretation of statistical results.

Survival data from 225 patients with resected pulmonary typical carcinoids were analyzed with Kaplan-Meier statistics (K-M) and "deep learning" methods to illustrate the difference between establishing "correlations" and "prognostications". Cases were stratified into G1 and G2 classes using a ≤5% Ki-67% cut-point. Overall survival, number of patients at risk and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for the two classes. Seven neural network models (NN) were developed with GMDH Shell 3.8.2 and Statgraphics Centurion 18.1 software, using variable prior probabilities and different numbers of training vs testing cases. The NNs used age, sex, and pTNM, G1 and G2 as input neurons and "alive" and "dead" as output neurons. Areas under the curve (AUC) and other performance measures were evaluated for all models. Log-rank test showed a significant difference in overall survival between G1 and G2 (p < 0.001). However, 95% CI estimates showed considerable variability in survival at different time intervals. Including the number of patients at risk at different time intervals showed that most G2 patients had been censored by 100 weeks. The NN models provided variable "prognostications", with AUC ranging from 0.5 to 1 and variability in the sensitivity, specificity, and other performance measures. The results illustrate the limitations of survival statistics and NNs in predicting the prognosis of individual patients. The need for pathologists not to overinterpret the finding of significant correlations as "prognostic" or "predictive" for individual patients is discussed.