Machine learning approaches for influenza A virus risk assessment identifies predictive correlates using ferret model in vivo data.

In vivo assessments of influenza A virus (IAV) pathogenicity and transmissibility in ferrets represent a crucial component of many pandemic risk assessment rubrics, but few systematic efforts to identify which data from in vivo experimentation are most useful for predicting pathogenesis and transmission outcomes have been conducted. To this aim, we aggregated viral and molecular data from 125 contemporary IAV (H1, H2, H3, H5, H7, and H9 subtypes) evaluated in ferrets under a consistent protocol. Three overarching predictive classification outcomes (lethality, morbidity, transmissibility) were constructed using machine learning (ML) techniques, employing datasets emphasizing virological and clinical parameters from inoculated ferrets, limited to viral sequence-based information, or combining both data types. Among 11 different ML algorithms tested and assessed, gradient boosting machines and random forest algorithms yielded the highest performance, with models for lethality and transmission consistently better performing than models predicting morbidity. Comparisons of feature selection among models was performed, and highest performing models were validated with results from external risk assessment studies. Our findings show that ML algorithms can be used to summarize complex in vivo experimental work into succinct summaries that inform and enhance risk assessment criteria for pandemic preparedness that take in vivo data into account.

Ecology and evolution of avian influenza viruses.

Four types of influenza virus have been identified in nature: influenza A, B, and C viruses are capable of infecting humans, and influenzas A and B cause annual epidemics (seasonal flu) in humans; however, influenza D is currently known to infect only pigs and cattle. The influenza A viruses (IAVs) are of greatest importance to humans, causing widespread significant morbidity and mortality, and have been responsible for at least five pandemics documented since the beginning of the 20th century (Table 1). The H1N1 and H3N2 IAVs continue to circulate in humans as seasonal influenza. In addition to humans, IAVs have a wide range of host animal species in nature, especially wild aquatic birds, the reservoir hosts of IAVs. The IAVs isolated from or adapted to an avian host are named avian influenza viruses (AIVs), and are of great concern owing to their involvement in the genesis of pandemic and outbreak strains. Moreover, the majority of AIVs persist in wild birds and domestic poultry, and novel variants continue to emerge in birds and other hosts, posing non-negligible threats to host ecology and public health.

Evaluating the Impact of Low-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza H6N1 Outbreaks in United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland Poultry Farms during 2020.

In January 2020, increased mortality was reported in a small broiler breeder flock in County Fermanagh, Northern Ireland. Gross pathological findings included coelomitis, oophoritis, salpingitis, visceral gout, splenomegaly, and renomegaly. Clinical presentation included inappetence, pronounced diarrhoea, and increased egg deformation. These signs, in combination with increased mortality, triggered a notifiable avian disease investigation. High pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) was not suspected, as mortality levels and clinical signs were not consistent with HPAIV. Laboratory investigation demonstrated the causative agent to be a low-pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV), subtype H6N1, resulting in an outbreak that affected 15 premises in Northern Ireland. The H6N1 virus was also associated with infection on 13 premises in the Republic of Ireland and six in Great Britain. The close genetic relationship between the viruses in Ireland and Northern Ireland suggested a direct causal link whereas those in Great Britain were associated with exposure to a common ancestral virus. Overall, this rapidly spreading outbreak required the culling of over 2 million birds across the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland to stamp out the incursion. This report demonstrates the importance of investigating LPAIV outbreaks promptly, given their substantial economic impacts.

Multiple transatlantic incursions of highly pathogenic avian influenza clade 2.3.4.4b A(H5N5) virus into North America and spillover to mammals.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses have spread at an unprecedented scale, leading to mass mortalities in birds and mammals. In 2023, a transatlantic incursion of HPAI A(H5N5) viruses into North America was detected, followed shortly thereafter by a mammalian detection. As these A(H5N5) viruses were similar to contemporary viruses described in Eurasia, the transatlantic spread of A(H5N5) viruses was most likely facilitated by pelagic seabirds. Some of the Canadian A(H5N5) viruses from birds and mammals possessed the PB2-E627K substitution known to facilitate adaptation to mammals. Ferrets inoculated with A(H5N5) viruses showed rapid, severe disease onset, with some evidence of direct contact transmission. However, these viruses have maintained receptor binding traits of avian influenza viruses and were susceptible to oseltamivir and zanamivir. Understanding the factors influencing the virulence and transmission of A(H5N5) in migratory birds and mammals is critical to minimize impacts on wildlife and public health.

Red knots in Europe: a dead end host species or a new niche for highly pathogenic avian influenza?

The 2020/2021 epidemic in Europe of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) of subtype H5 surpassed all previously recorded European outbreaks in size, genotype constellations and reassortment frequency and continued into 2022 and 2023. The causative 2.3.4.4b viral lineage proved to be highly proficient with respect to reassortment with cocirculating low pathogenic avian influenza viruses and seems to establish an endemic status in northern Europe. A specific HPAIV reassortant of the subtype H5N3 was detected almost exclusively in red knots (Calidris canutus islandica) in December 2020. It caused systemic and rapidly fatal disease leading to a singular and self-limiting mass mortality affecting about 3500 birds in the German Wadden Sea, roughly 1 % of the entire flyway population of islandica red knots. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that the H5N3 reassortant very likely had formed in red knots and remained confined to this species. While mechanisms of virus circulation in potential reservoir species, dynamics of spill-over and reassortment events and the roles of environmental virus sources remain to be identified, the year-round infection pressure poses severe threats to endangered avian species and prompts adaptation of habitat and species conservation practices.

High and low pathogenicity avian influenza virus discrimination and prediction based on volatile organic compounds signature by SIFT-MS: a proof-of-concept study.

High and low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (HPAIV, LPAIV) are the primary causes of poultry diseases worldwide. HPAIV and LPAIV constitute a major threat to the global poultry industry. Therefore, early detection and well-adapted surveillance strategies are of the utmost importance to control the spread of these viruses. Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) released from living organisms have been investigated over the last decades as a diagnostic strategy. Mass spectrometry instruments can analyze VOCs emitted upon viral infection. Selected ion flow tube mass spectrometry (SIFT-MS) enables direct analysis of cell headspace in less than 20 min. As a proof-of-concept study, we investigated the ability of a SIFT-MS coupled sparse Partial Least Square-Discriminant Analysis analytical workflow to discriminate IAV-infected cells. Supernatants of HPAIV, LPAIV, and control cells were collected from 1 to 72 h post-infection and analyzed using our analytical workflow. At each collection point, VOCs' signatures were first identified based on four independent experiments and then used to discriminate the infectious status of external samples. Our results indicate that the identified VOCs signatures successfully discriminate, as early as 1-h post-infection, infected cells from the control cells and differentiated the HPAIV from the LPAIV infection. These results suggest a virus-dependent VOCs signature. Overall, the external samples' status was identified with 96.67% sensitivity, 100% specificity, and 97.78% general accuracy.

Epidemiology, biosafety, and biosecurity of Avian Influenza: Insights from the East Mediterranean region.

The World Organization for Animal Health defines Avian Influenza Virus as a highly infectious disease caused by diverse subtypes that continue to evolve rapidly, impacting poultry species, pet birds, wild birds, non-human mammals, and occasionally humans. The effects of Avian influenza viruses have been recognised as a precursor for serious health concerns among affected birds, poultry, and human populations in the Middle East. Furthermore, low and high pathogenic avian influenza viruses lead to respiratory illness with varying severity, depending on the virus subtype (e.g., H5, H7, H9, etc.). Possible future outbreaks and endemics of newly emerging subtypes are expected to occur, as many studies have reported the emergence of novel mutations and viral subtypes. However, proper surveillance programs and biosecurity applications should be developed, and countries with incapacitated defences against such outbreaks should be encouraged to undergo complete reinstation and reinforcement in their health and research sectors. Public education regarding biosafety and virus prevention is necessary to ensure minimal spread of avian influenza endemic.

Assessment of Survival Kinetics for Emergent Highly Pathogenic Clade 2.3.4.4 H5Nx Avian Influenza Viruses.

High pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) cause high morbidity and mortality in poultry species. HPAIV prevalence means high numbers of infected wild birds could lead to spill over events for farmed poultry. How these pathogens survive in the environment is important for disease maintenance and potential dissemination. We evaluated the temperature-associated survival kinetics for five clade 2.3.4.4 H5Nx HPAIVs (UK field strains between 2014 and 2021) incubated at up to three temperatures for up to ten weeks. The selected temperatures represented northern European winter (4 °C) and summer (20 °C); and a southern European summer temperature (30 °C). For each clade 2.3.4.4 HPAIV, the time in days to reduce the viral infectivity by 90% at temperature T was established (DT), showing that a lower incubation temperature prolonged virus survival (stability), where DT ranged from days to weeks. The fastest loss of viral infectivity was observed at 30 °C. Extrapolation of the graphical DT plots to the x-axis intercept provided the corresponding time to extinction for viral decay. Statistical tests of the difference between the DT values and extinction times of each clade 2.3.4.4 strain at each temperature indicated that the majority displayed different survival kinetics from the other strains at 4 °C and 20 °C.

Research progress on the nonstructural protein 1 (NS1) of influenza a virus.

Influenza A virus (IAV) is the leading cause of highly contagious respiratory infections, which poses a serious threat to public health. The non-structural protein 1 (NS1) is encoded by segment 8 of IAV genome and is expressed in high levels in host cells upon IAV infection. It is the determinant of virulence and has multiple functions by targeting type Ι interferon (IFN-I) and type III interferon (IFN-III) production, disrupting cell apoptosis and autophagy in IAV-infected cells, and regulating the host fitness of influenza viruses. This review will summarize the current research on the NS1 including the structure and related biological functions of the NS1 as well as the interaction between the NS1 and host cells. It is hoped that this will provide some scientific basis for the prevention and control of the influenza virus.

Exploration of influenza A virus PA protein-associated cellular proteins discloses its impact on mitochondrial function.

Influenza A virus can infect respiratory tracts and may cause severe illness in humans. Proteins encoded by influenza A virus can interact with cellular factors and dysregulate host biological processes to support viral replication and cause pathogenicity. The influenza viral PA protein is not only a subunit of influenza viral polymerase but also a virulence factor involved in pathogenicity during infection. To explore the role of the influenza virus PA protein in regulating host biological processes, we performed immunoprecipitation and LC‒MS/MS to globally identify cellular factors that interact with the PA proteins of the influenza A H1N1, 2009 pandemic H1N1, and H3N2 viruses. The results demonstrated that proteins located in the mitochondrion, proteasome, and nucleus are associated with the PA protein. We further discovered that the PA protein is partly located in mitochondria by immunofluorescence and mitochondrial fractionation and that overexpression of the PA protein reduces mitochondrial respiration. In addition, our results revealed the interaction between PA and the mitochondrial matrix protein PYCR2 and the antiviral role of PYCR2 during influenza A virus replication. Moreover, we found that the PA protein could also trigger autophagy and disrupt mitochondrial homeostasis. Overall, our research revealed the impacts of the influenza A virus PA protein on mitochondrial function and autophagy.

Duration of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus and Newcastle Disease Virus Infectivity in Dried Ornithologic Study Skins.

Ornithologic study skins are specimens of avian skins that have been preserved by drying after removing the viscera and muscle. Because of the high value of study skins for scientific studies, specimens are shared among researchers. There is concern that study skins might be contaminated with high-consequence diseases such as highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) or Newcastle disease virus (NDV). To mitigate risk, thermal or chemical treatment of study skins may be required before transfer; however, such treatments might damage the specimens. Therefore, a study was conducted to evaluate the duration of infectivity of HPAIV and NDV in study skins prepared from infected chickens (Gallus gallus). Study skins were prepared from 10 chickens infected with each virus. Skin and feather pulp samples were taken at the time of study skin preparation to establish starting titers. Mean starting titers in the skin was 4.2 log10 and 5.1 log10 50% egg infectious doses (EID50) for HPAIV and NDV groups respectively, and were 6.7 log10 EID50 for HPAIV, and 6.4 log10 EID50 for NDV in feather pulp. Samples were collected at 2 and 4 wk of drying to quantify viable virus. At 2 wk, fewer samples had detectable virus and mean titers were 1.8 log10 (skin) and 2.1 log10 (feathers) EID50 for HPAIV, and 1.7 log10 (skin) and 3.5 log10 (feathers) EID50 for NDV. At 4 wk viable virus could not be detected in either tissue type.

Avian Influenza Virus and Avian Paramyxoviruses in Wild Waterfowl of the Western Coast of the Caspian Sea (2017-2020).

The flyways of many different wild waterfowl pass through the Caspian Sea region. The western coast of the middle Caspian Sea is an area with many wetlands, where wintering grounds with large concentrations of birds are located. It is known that wild waterfowl are a natural reservoir of the influenza A virus. In the mid-2000s, in the north of this region, the mass deaths of swans, gulls, and pelicans from high pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) were noted. At present, there is still little known about the presence of avian influenza virus (AIVs) and different avian paramyxoviruses (APMVs) in the region's waterfowl bird populations. Here, we report the results of monitoring these viruses in the wild waterfowl of the western coast of the middle Caspian Sea from 2017 to 2020. Samples from 1438 individuals of 26 bird species of 7 orders were collected, from which 21 strains of AIV were isolated, amounting to a 1.46% isolation rate of the total number of samples analyzed (none of these birds exhibited external signs of disease). The following subtypes were determined and whole-genome nucleotide sequences of the isolated strains were obtained: H1N1 (n = 2), H3N8 (n = 8), H4N6 (n = 2), H7N3 (n = 2), H8N4 (n = 1), H10N5 (n = 1), and H12N5 (n = 1). No high pathogenicity influenza virus H5 subtype was detected. Phylogenetic analysis of AIV genomes did not reveal any specific pattern for viruses in the Caspian Sea region, showing that all segments belong to the Eurasian clades of classic avian-like influenza viruses. We also did not find the amino acid substitutions in the polymerase complex (PA, PB1, and PB2) that are critical for the increase in virulence or adaptation to mammals. In total, 23 hemagglutinating viruses not related to influenza A virus were also isolated, of which 15 belonged to avian paramyxoviruses. We were able to sequence 12 avian paramyxoviruses of three species, as follows: Newcastle disease virus (n = 4); Avian paramyxovirus 4 (n = 5); and Avian paramyxovirus 6 (n = 3). In the Russian Federation, the Newcastle disease virus of the VII.1.1 sub-genotype was first isolated from a wild bird (common pheasant) in the Caspian Sea region. The five avian paramyxovirus 4 isolates obtained belonged to the common clade in Genotype I, whereas phylogenetic analysis of three isolates of Avian paramyxovirus 6 showed that two isolates, isolated in 2017, belonged to Genotype I and that an isolate identified in 2020 belonged to Genotype II. The continued regular monitoring of AIVs and APMVs, the obtaining of data on the biological properties of isolated strains, and the accumulation of information on virus host species will allow for the adequate planning of epidemiological measures, suggest the most likely routes of spread of the virus, and assist in the prediction of the introduction of the viruses in the western coastal region of the middle Caspian Sea.

An infant mouse model of influenza-driven nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae colonization and acute otitis media suitable for preclinical testing of novel therapies.

Nontypeable Haemophilus influenzae (NTHi) is a major otitis media (OM) pathogen, with colonization a prerequisite for disease development. Most acute OM is in children <5 years old, with recurrent and chronic OM impacting hearing and learning. Therapies to prevent NTHi colonization and/or disease are needed, especially for young children. Respiratory viruses are implicated in driving the development of bacterial OM in children. We have developed an infant mouse model of influenza-driven NTHi OM, as a preclinical tool for the evaluation of safety and efficacy of clinical therapies to prevent NTHi colonization and the development of OM. In this model, 100% of infant BALB/cARC mice were colonized with NTHi, and all developed NTHi OM. Influenza A virus (IAV) facilitated the establishment of dense (1 × 105 CFU/mL) and long-lasting (6 days) NTHi colonization. IAV was essential for the development of NTHi OM, with 100% of mice in the IAV/NTHi group developing NTHi OM compared with 8% of mice in the NTHi only group. Histological analysis and cytokine measurements revealed that the inflammation observed in the middle ear of the infant mice with OM reflected inflammation observed in children with OM. We have developed the first infant mouse model of NTHi colonization and OM. This ascension model uses influenza-driven establishment of OM and reflects the clinical pathology of bacterial OM developing after a respiratory virus infection. This model provides a valuable tool for testing therapies to prevent or treat NTHi colonization and disease in young children.

The virus is out of the barn: the emergence of HPAI as a pathogen of avian and mammalian wildlife around the globe.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has persisted as a One Health threat whose current circulation and impact are addressed in the companion Currents in One Health by Puryear and Runstadler, JAVMA, May 2024. Highly pathogenic avian influenza emerged as a by-product of agricultural practices and adapted to endemic circulation in wild bird species. Over more than 20 years, continued evolution in a complex ecology involving multiple hosts has produced a lineage that expanded globally over the last 2 years. Understanding the continued evolution and movement of HPAI relies on understanding how the virus is infecting different hosts in different contexts. This includes understanding the environmental factors and the natural ecology of viral transmission that impact host exposure and ultimately evolutionary trajectories. Particularly with the rapid host expansion, increased spillover to mammalian hosts, and novel clinical phenotypes in infected hosts, despite progress in understanding the impact of specific mutations to HPAI viruses that are associated with spillover potential, the threat to public health is poorly understood. Active research is focusing on new approaches to understanding the relationship of viral genotype to phenotype and the implementation of research and surveillance pipelines to make sense of the enormous potential for diverse HPAI viruses to emerge from wild reservoirs amid global circulation.

Evolutionary dynamics and comparative pathogenicity of clade 2.3.4.4b H5 subtype avian influenza viruses, China, 2021-2022.

The recent concurrent emergence of H5N1, H5N6, and H5N8 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) has led to significant avian mortality globally. Since 2020, frequent human-animal interactions have been documented. To gain insight into the novel H5 subtype AIVs (i.e., H5N1, H5N6 and H5N8), we collected 6102 samples from various regions of China between January 2021 and September 2022, and identified 41 H5Nx strains. Comparative analyses on the evolution and biological properties of these isolates were conducted. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the 41 H5Nx strains belonged to clade 2.3.4.4b, with 13 related to H5N1, 19 to H5N6, and 9 to H5N8. Analysis based on global 2.3.4.4b viruses showed that all the viruses described in this study were likely originated from H5N8, exhibiting a heterogeneous evolutionary history between H5N1 and H5N6 during 2015-2022 worldwide. H5N1 showed a higher rate of evolution in 2021-2022 and more sites under positive selection pressure in 2015-2022. The antigenic profiles of the novel H5N1 and H5N6 exhibited notable variations. Further hemagglutination inhibition assay suggested that some A(H5N1) viruses may be antigenically distinct from the circulating H5N6 and H5N8 strains. Mammalian challenge assays demonstrated that the H5N8 virus (21GD001_H5N8) displayed the highest pathogenicity in mice, followed by the H5N1 virus (B1557_H5N1) and then the H5N6 virus (220086_H5N6), suggesting a heterogeneous virulence profile of H5 AIVs in the mammalian hosts. Based on the above results, we speculate that A(H5N1) viruses have a higher risk of emergence in the future. Collectively, these findings unveil a new landscape of different evolutionary history and biological characteristics of novel H5 AIVs in clade 2.3.4.4b, contributing to a better understanding of designing more effective strategies for the prevention and control of novel H5 AIVs.

Viral entry and translation in brain endothelia provoke influenza-associated encephalopathy.

Influenza-associated encephalopathy (IAE) is extremely acute in onset, with high lethality and morbidity within a few days, while the direct pathogenesis by influenza virus in this acute phase in the brain is largely unknown. Here we show that influenza virus enters into the cerebral endothelium and thereby induces IAE. Three-weeks-old young mice were inoculated with influenza A virus (IAV). Physical and neurological scores were recorded and temporal-spatial analyses of histopathology and viral studies were performed up to 72 h post inoculation. Histopathological examinations were also performed using IAE human autopsy brains. Viral infection, proliferation and pathogenesis were analyzed in cell lines of endothelium and astrocyte. The effects of anti-influenza viral drugs were tested in the cell lines and animal models. Upon intravenous inoculation of IAV in mice, the mice developed encephalopathy with brain edema and pathological lesions represented by micro bleeding and injured astrocytic process (clasmatodendrosis) within 72 h. Histologically, massive deposits of viral nucleoprotein were observed as early as 24 h post infection in the brain endothelial cells of mouse models and the IAE patients. IAV inoculated endothelial cell lines showed deposition of viral proteins and provoked cell death, while IAV scarcely amplified. Inhibition of viral transcription and translation suppressed the endothelial cell death and the lethality of mouse models. These data suggest that the onset of encephalopathy should be induced by cerebral endothelial infection with IAV. Thus, IAV entry into the endothelium, and transcription and/or translation of viral RNA, but not viral proliferation, should be the key pathogenesis of IAE.

Necroptosis blockade prevents lung injury in severe influenza.

Severe influenza A virus (IAV) infections can result in hyper-inflammation, lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome1-5 (ARDS), for which there are no effective pharmacological therapies. Necroptosis is an attractive entry point for therapeutic intervention in ARDS and related inflammatory conditions because it drives pathogenic lung inflammation and lethality during severe IAV infection6-8 and can potentially be targeted by receptor interacting protein kinase 3 (RIPK3) inhibitors. Here we show that a newly developed RIPK3 inhibitor, UH15-38, potently and selectively blocked IAV-triggered necroptosis in alveolar epithelial cells in vivo. UH15-38 ameliorated lung inflammation and prevented mortality following infection with laboratory-adapted and pandemic strains of IAV, without compromising antiviral adaptive immune responses or impeding viral clearance. UH15-38 displayed robust therapeutic efficacy even when administered late in the course of infection, suggesting that RIPK3 blockade may provide clinical benefit in patients with IAV-driven ARDS and other hyper-inflammatory pathologies.

Genome sequences of haemagglutinin cleavage site predict the pathogenicity phenotype of avian influenza virus: statistically validated data for facilitating rapid declarations and reducing reliance on in vivo testing.

Based on the pathogenicity in chickens, most H1-H16 avian influenza viruses (AIV) cause mild diseases, whereas some of the H5 and H7 AI viruses cause severe, systemic disease. The number of basic amino acids in the haemagglutinin (HA) cleavage site of AIV plays a critical role in pathogenicity. As we gain a greater understanding of the molecular mechanisms of pathogenicity, genome sequencing of the HA0 cleavage site has assumed a greater role in assessment of the potential pathogenicity of H5 and H7 viruses. We validated the use of HA cleavage site motif analysis by comparing molecular pathotyping data against experimental in vivo (intravenous pathogenicity index [IVPI] and lethality) data for determination of both low pathogenicity and high pathogenicity AI virus declaration with the goal of expediting pathotype confirmation and further reducing the reliance on in vivo testing. Our data provide statistical support to the continued use of molecular determination of pathotype for AI viruses based on the HA cleavage site sequence in the absence of an in vivo study determination. This approach not only expedites the declaration process of highly pathogenic AIV (HPAIV) but also reduces the need for experimental in vivo testing of H5 and H7 viruses.