Effectiveness of hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is recommended in patients with cirrhosis, but the effectiveness of a surveillance program in clinical practice has yet to be established. AIMS: To evaluate the effectiveness of a surveillance program with ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) to detect early HCCs. METHODS: Four hundred and forty-six patients with Child A/B cirrhosis were prospectively enrolled between January 2004 and September 2006 and followed until July 2010. HCC surveillance using ultrasound and AFP was conducted per the treating hepatologist, although the standard was every 6 to 12 months. HCC was diagnosed using American Association for the Study of Liver Disease (AASLD) guidelines and early HCC defined by Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging. Performance characteristics were determined for surveillance using AFP, ultrasound, or the combination. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 3.5 years, 41 patients developed HCCs, of whom 30 (73.2%) had early HCCs. The annual incidence of HCC was 2.8%, with cumulative 3- and 5-year incidence rates of 5.7% and 9.1%, respectively. Surveillance ultrasound and AFP had sensitivities of 44% and 66% and specificities of 92% and 91%, respectively, for the detection of HCCs. Sensitivity significantly improved to 90%, with minimal loss in specificity (83%) when these tests were used in combination. CONCLUSIONS: When used as a surveillance program in a real-world clinical setting, combination of ultrasound and AFP is the most effective strategy to detect HCC at an early stage. IMPACT: Our results differ from the guidelines of the AASLD.