Systemic inflammatory response syndrome between 24 and 48 h after ERCP predicts prolonged length of stay in patients with post-ERCP pancreatitis: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Early systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) has been associated with severe non-iatrogenic acute pancreatitis. The aims of this study were to determine whether early SIRS could be used to predict severe post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP) and to determine the effect of prophylactic-pancreatic stenting (PS) on SIRS and severe PEP. METHODS: Between 1/2000 and 6/2012, all patients admitted for PEP after an outpatient ERCP and who had ≥1 abdominal CT scan during hospitalization were retrospectively evaluated. The presence of SIRS was assessed between 0 and 24 h and 24 and 48 h after the time of ERCP completion. SIRS was evaluated as a predictor of severe PEP using area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: There were 113 patients with PEP of whom 22 (19.5%) had severe PEP. SIRS was present in 44 (38.9%) and 33 (29.2%) patients between 0 and 24 h and 24 and 48 h, respectively. SIRS between 24 and 48 h had a higher predictive accuracy for severe PEP compared to SIRS between 0 and 24 h (AUROC = 0.7 vs. 0.5, p = 0.002). The prevalence of SIRS between 24 and 48 h was significantly less among the 19 patients who underwent PS (11% vs. 37%, p = 0.03). There was no difference between the prophylactic stenting and no stenting groups with regards to acute fluid collection(s), pancreatic necrosis, organ failure or mortality during hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS: SIRS between 24 and 48 h after ERCP is an accurate, easy to obtain, and inexpensive predictor of severe PEP. PS is associated with a decreased prevalence of SIRS between 24 and 48 h after ERCP.