Association between meteorological variations and activities of influenza A and B across different climate zones: a multi-region modelling analysis across the globe.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To elucidate the effects of meteorological variations on the activity of influenza A and B in 11 sites across different climate regions. METHODS: Daily numbers of laboratory-confirmed influenza A and B cases from 2011-2015 were collected from study sites where the corresponding daily mean temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and daily precipitation amount were used for boosted regression trees analysis on the marginal associations and the interaction effects. RESULTS: Cold temperature was a major determinant that favored both influenza A and B in temperate and subtropical sites. Temperature-to-influenza A, but not influenza B, exhibited a U-shape association in subtropical and tropical sites. High relative humidity was also associated with influenza activities but was less consistent with influenza B activity. Compared with relative humidity, absolute humidity had a stronger association - it was negatively associated with influenza B activity in temperate zones, but was positively associated with both influenza A and B in subtropical and tropical zones. CONCLUSION: The association between meteorological factors and with influenza activity is virus type specific and climate dependent. The heavy influence of temperature on influenza activity across climate zones implies that global warming is likely to have an impact on the influenza burden.