An adaptive, interacting, cluster-based model for predicting the transmission dynamics of COVID-19.

ABSTRACT

The SARS-CoV-2 driven disease COVID-19 is pandemic with increasing human and monetary costs. COVID-19 has put an unexpected and inordinate degree of pressure on healthcare systems of strong and fragile countries alike. To launch both containment and mitigation measures, each country requires estimates of COVID-19 incidence as such preparedness allows agencies to plan efficient resource allocation and to design control strategies. Here, we have developed a new adaptive, interacting, and cluster-based mathematical model to predict the granular trajectory of COVID-19. We have analyzed incidence data from three currently afflicted countries of Italy, the United States of America, and India. We show that our approach predicts state-wise COVID-19 spread for each country with reasonable accuracy. We show that Rt, as the effective reproduction number, exhibits significant spatial variations in these countries. However, by accounting for the spatial variation of Rt in an adaptive fashion, the predictive model provides estimates of the possible asymptomatic and undetected COVID-19 cases, both of which are key contributors in COVID-19 transmission. We have applied our methodology to make detailed predictions for COVID19 incidences at the district and state level in India. Finally, to make the models available to the public at large, we have developed a web-based dashboard, namely "Predictions and Assessment of Corona Infections and Transmission in India" (PRACRITI, see http//pracriti.iitd.ac.in), which provides the detailed Rt values and a three-week forecast of COVID cases.