Changes in Prevalence and Incidence at the Population Level of Type 2 Diabetes in First Nations and All Other Adults in Manitoba.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is increasing and Indigenous populations are at highest risk. Canadian data are crucial for health planning. METHODS: Population-based, de-identified, linked databases were used to calculate the incidence and prevalence of T2D for registered adult First Nations Manitobans and all other adult Manitobans from 2011-2012 to 2016-2017. RESULTS: The crude prevalence of T2D increased over the 6-year study period. The crude incidence of T2D for First Nations Manitobans dropped from 11.02 to 9.74 per 1,000 person-years at risk and the crude incidence for all other Manitobans did not change; in the last 2-year period, it was 6.53 per 1,000 person-years at risk. When incidence was stratified by age, the results differed between the younger and older age groups. For First Nations individuals, the adjusted incidence of T2D for those <30 years old increased over time, with no change in those ≥30 years old. For all other Manitobans, crude incidence increased over time in the young and middle age ranges (i.e. 18 to 29 years and 35 to 44 years, respectively). Both age- and sex-adjusted relative prevalence (adjusted rate ratio [aRR], 3.47; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.56 to 4.70) and incidence (aRR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.51 to 2.56) were higher for First Nations Manitobans. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of T2D continues to increase and disproportionately affects First Nations populations. Furthermore, the incidence is increasing in the younger age groups. Prevention and screening programs must include younger age groups and partner with First Nations communities.