Epidemiological Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Mortality Attributable to Modifiable Risk Factors and Its Association with Sociodemographic Transitions across BRICS-Plus Countries.

ABSTRACT

BRICS-Plus countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and 30 other countries) is a group of 35 countries with emerging economies making up more than half of the world's population. We explored epidemiological trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality attributable to modifiable risk factors and its association with period and birth cohort effects and sociodemographic index (SDI) across BRICS-Plus countries by using joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort modeling from 1990 to 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, the all-ages CVD deaths increased by 85.2% (6.1 million to 11.3 million) across BRICS-Plus countries. The CVD age-standardized mortality rate attributable to dietary risks and smoking significantly decreased across BRICS-Plus countries, with some exceptions. However, four-fifths of BRICS-Plus countries observed a remarkable increasing trend of high body mass-index (BMI)-related CVD deaths, in particular, among younger adults (25-49 years). Early birth cohorts and individuals aged greater than 50 years showed a higher risk of CVD mortality. Both the China-ASEAN FTA and Mercosur regions stand out for their successful sociodemographic transition, with a significant reduction in CVD mortality over the study period. Singapore and Brazil achieved great progress in CVD mortality reduction and the other BRICS-Plus countries should follow their lead in adopting public health policies and initiatives into practice.