Secular trend of mortality and incidence of rheumatoid arthritis in global ,1990-2019: an age period cohort analysis and joinpoint analysis.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a major public health problem. Unfortunately, there is a scarcity of comprehensive and up-to-date information regarding the burden of RA and its dynamic trends in subsequent years. To examine the changing trends in the global burden of RA and forecast for 2044, which will facilitate the development of strategies tailored to RA burden and provide reference for the development of effective treatment guidelines. METHODS: Following the general analytical strategy used the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019, which included 204 countries, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability adjusted of life year (DALY) rate for RA were analyzed. RESULTS: The ASIR, ASMR and age-standardized DALY rate for RA in 2019 were 13.001/100,000 (95% UI, 11.833 ~ 14.274), 0.574/100,000 (95% UI, 0.356 ~ 0.793) and 39.565/100,000 (95% UI, 49.529 ~ 30.508), respectively. America had the highest ASIR [18.578(95% UI, 17.147 ~ 20.148)] and age-standardized DALY rate [53.676(95% UI, 40.106 ~ 67.968)] in 2019. Asia had the highest ASMR [0.681(95% UI, 0.802 ~ 0.480)] in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, a significant average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the ASIR was observed in both males [0.237% (95% CI, 0.216 ~ 0.259%)] and females [0.197% (95% CI, 0.141 ~ 0.254%)], AAPC in the ASMR was observed in both males [-0.398% (95% CI, -0.605~-0.191%)] and females [-0.295% (95% CI, -0.424~-0.65%)]. Age effects indicated that the relative risk (RR) of RA-associated incidence and mortality rates increased with age among males and females. The RR of RA increased over time and started to gradually increase from 1990. Cohort effects showed decreases in incidence, mortality and DALY rates in successive birth cohorts. The global incidence of RA would continue to increase in the future, while mortality would continue to decrease. CONCLUSION: The increased risk of RA is dominantly influenced by age effects and period effects and the ethnic area. The results suggest that early identification and treatment of RA is important for reducing the ongoing burden with age, and targeted health education and specific intervention programs should be promoted to control middle-elderly population.