Nomogram for predicting postoperative deep vein thrombosis in patients with spinal fractures caused by high-energy injuries.

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: Deep venous thrombosis (DVT) is a common complication in patients with spinal fractures caused by high-energy injuries. Early identification of patients at high risk of postoperative DVT is essential for the prevention of thrombosis. This study aimed to develop and validate a prediction model based on a nomogram to predict DVT in patients with spinal fractures caused by high-energy injuries. METHODS: Clinical data were collected from 936 patients admitted to our hospital between January 2016 and December 2021 with spinal fractures caused by high-energy injuries. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for postoperative DVT and to develop a nomogram. The predictive performance of the nomogram was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve. RESULTS: The incidence of preoperative DVT was 15.38% (144/936). The postoperative incidence of DVT was 20.5% (192/936). The multivariate analysis revealed that age, operation time, blood transfusion, duration of bed rest, American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) score and D-dimer were risk factors for postoperative DVT. The area under the ROC curve of the nomogram was 0.835 and the calibration curve showed good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram showed a good ability to predict postoperative DVT in patients with spinal fractures caused by high-energy injuries, which may benefit pre- and postoperative DVT prophylaxis strategy development.