The potential of 18F-FDG PET/CT metabolic parameter-based nomogram in predicting the microvascular invasion of hepatocellular carcinoma before liver transplantation.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Microvascular invasion (MVI) is a critical factor in predicting the recurrence and prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT). However, there is a lack of reliable preoperative predictors for MVI. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the potential of an 18F-FDG PET/CT-based nomogram in predicting MVI before LT for HCC. METHODS: 83 HCC patients who obtained 18F-FDG PET/CT before LT were included in this retrospective research. To determine the parameters connected to MVI and to create a nomogram for MVI prediction, respectively, Logistic and Cox regression models were applied. Analyses of the calibration curve and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess the model's capability to differentiate between clinical factors and metabolic data from PET/CT images. RESULTS: Among the 83 patients analyzed, 41% were diagnosed with histologic MVI. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that Child-Pugh stage, alpha-fetoprotein, number of tumors, CT Dmax, and Tumor-to-normal liver uptake ratio (TLR) were significant predictors of MVI. A nomogram was constructed using these predictors, which demonstrated strong calibration with a close agreement between predicted and actual MVI probabilities. The nomogram also showed excellent differentiation with an AUC of 0.965 (95% CI 0.925-1.000). CONCLUSION: The nomogram based on 18F-FDG PET/CT metabolic characteristics is a reliable preoperative imaging biomarker for predicting MVI in HCC patients before undergoing LT. It has demonstrated excellent efficacy and high clinical applicability.