Development and validation of a risk score nomogram model to predict the risk of 5-year all-cause mortality in diabetic patients with hypertension: A study based on NHANES data.
Int J Cardiol Cardiovasc Risk Prev
; 21: 200265, 2024 Jun.
Article
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| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38577011
ABSTRACT
Background:
The present study aimed to develop and validate a prediction nomogram model for 5-year all-cause mortality in diabetic patients with hypertension.Methods:
Data were extracted from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). A total of 3291 diabetic patients with hypertension in the NHANES cycles for 1999-2014 were selected and randomly assigned at a ratio of 82 to the training cohort (n = 2633) and validation cohort (n = 658). Multivariable Cox regression was conducted to establish a visual nomogram model for predicting the risk of 5-year all-cause mortality. Receiver operating characteristic curves and C-indexes were used to evaluate the discriminant ability of the prediction nomogram model for all-cause mortality. Survival curves were created using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared by the log-rank test.Results:
The nomogram model included eight independent predictors age, sex, education status, marital status, smoking, serum albumin, blood urea nitrogen, and previous cardiovascular disease. The C-indexes for the model in the training and validation cohorts were 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.73-0.79, p < 0.001) and 0.75 (95% confidence interval 0.69-0.81, p < 0.001), respectively. The calibration curves indicated that the model had satisfactory consistency in the two cohorts. The risk of all-cause mortality gradually increased as the tertiles of the nomogram model score increased (log-rank test, p < 0.001).Conclusion:
The newly developed nomogram model, a readily useable and efficient tool to predict the risk of 5-year all-cause mortality in diabetic patients with hypertension, provides a novel risk stratification method for individualized intervention.
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MEDLINE
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Int J Cardiol Cardiovasc Risk Prev
Año:
2024
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Article