Clinical calculator based on CT and clinicopathologic characteristics predicts short-term prognosis following resection of microsatellite-stabilized diffuse gastric cancer.

ABSTRACT

PURPOSE: Although microsatellite stability/Epithelial-mesenchymal transition (MSS/EMT) subtypes have been reported in multiple cancer prognosis studies, strong confounding factors between MSS/EMT (usually with Lauren's diffuse phenotype) and diffuse gastric cancer (GC) may obscure the independent prognostic value of diffuse GC. Additionally, recent studies suggest a strong correlation between mural stratification based on CT and diffuse GC. This study aims to investigate potential prognostic factors of MSS diffuse GC using mural stratification and to develop a risk assessment model. METHODS: This retrospective study included 131 patients with MSS diffuse GC who underwent radical surgery. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to identify model predictors and construct a nomogram for overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) risks. The model's performance was evaluated using ROC, accuracy, and C-index. Internal validation of the model was conducted using the bootstrap resampling method. RESULTS: Among 131 cases, 60 cases (45.8%) exhibited grade 2 mural stratification, which correlated with a poorer tumor prognosis and a more invasive phenotype. Furthermore, a nomogram for predicting OS and RFS prognosis was established based on multivariate results (age, extranodal invasion, mural stratification, and/or P53). The nomogram demonstrated excellent performance, with an AUC of 0.859 (95% CI 0.794-0.924) for OS and 0.859 (95% CI 0.789-0.929) for RFS. Internal validation using 1000 bootstrap samples yielded AUC values of 0.845 and 0.846 for OS and RFS, respectively. CONCLUSION: Grade 2 mural stratification based on CT imaging revealed a more aggressive invasive phenotype, characterized by increased LN metastasis, higher rates of peritoneal metastasis, and a poorer short-term prognosis. Furthermore, the CT phenotype-based nomogram demonstrates favorable discrimination and calibration, enabling convenient individual short-term prognostic evaluation following resection of MSS diffuse GC.