Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Extreme mortality during a historical measles outbreak on Rotuma is consistent with measles immunosuppression.
Cant, Susie; Shanks, G Dennis; Keeling, Matt J; Penman, Bridget S.
Afiliación
  • Cant S; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
  • Shanks GD; Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
  • Keeling MJ; School of Public Health, University of Queensland, Herston, QLD, Australia.
  • Penman BS; Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
Epidemiol Infect ; 152: e85, 2024 May 13.
Article en En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38736255
ABSTRACT
Until the early twentieth century, populations on many Pacific Islands had never experienced measles. As travel to the Pacific Islands by Europeans became more common, the arrival of measles and other pathogens had devastating consequences. In 1911, Rotuma in Fiji was hit by a measles epidemic, which killed 13% of the island population. Detailed records show two mortality peaks, with individuals reported as dying solely from measles in the first and from measles and diarrhoea in the second. Measles is known to disrupt immune system function. Here, we investigate whether the pattern of mortality on Rotuma in 1911 was a consequence of the immunosuppressive effects of measles. We use a compartmental model to simulate measles infection and immunosuppression. Whilst immunosuppressed, we assume that individuals are vulnerable to dysfunctional reactions triggered by either (i) a newly introduced infectious agent arriving at the same time as measles or (ii) microbes already present in the population in a pre-existing equilibrium state. We show that both forms of the immunosuppression model provide a plausible fit to the data and that the inclusion of immunosuppression in the model leads to more realistic estimates of measles epidemiological parameters than when immunosuppression is not included.
Asunto(s)
Palabras clave

Texto completo: 1 Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Brotes de Enfermedades / Sarampión Idioma: En Revista: Epidemiol Infect Asunto de la revista: DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS / EPIDEMIOLOGIA Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article

Texto completo: 1 Base de datos: MEDLINE Asunto principal: Brotes de Enfermedades / Sarampión Idioma: En Revista: Epidemiol Infect Asunto de la revista: DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS / EPIDEMIOLOGIA Año: 2024 Tipo del documento: Article