Can overconfidence be debiased by low-probability/high-consequence events?

During the first half of 2008, China suffered three natural disasters: a heavy snow storm, an outbreak of hand-foot-mouth disease, and a severe earthquake. The aim of the present study is to explore how low-probability/high-consequence events influence overconfidence. In Study 1, opportunity samples were obtained by recruiting residents in three different types of disaster-hit areas to answer a peer-comparison probability judgment questionnaire about 1 month after the corresponding disaster occurred. The performance of 539 participants in disaster-hit areas was compared with that of 142 residents in a nondisaster area. The findings indicate that residents in disaster-hit areas were less overconfident than those in the nondisaster area on both positive and negative events. In Study 2, we surveyed a total of 336 quake-victims 4 and 11 months after the earthquake to examine whether the impact of disasters on overconfidence would decay with time. The resulting data indicate that the disaster victims became more overconfident as time elapsed. The overall findings suggest that low-probability/high-consequence events could make people less overconfident and more rational and seem to serve as a function of debiasing.

The efficacy of FMD vaccine reduced non-structural proteins with a mAb against 3B protein.

A monoclonal antibody, 3BIgG, against the prokaryotically expressed foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) non-structural protein (NSP) 3B was obtained. The 3BIgG-sepharose conjugant (3BmAb-6BFF) was prepared by adding the purified 3BIgG into epoxy-activated sepharose 6BFF, incubating with the inactivated FMDV, and then removing the sepharose by centrifugation. The vaccine was made from the supernatant emulsified with oil-adjuvant ISA206. Ten guinea pigs, 26 pigs and six cattle were vaccinated, and a vaccination control group was included without treatment with 3BmAb-6BFF. After 28 days, 9/10 pigs challenged with FMDV were protected, this result was the same as the control group, indicating that the vaccine potency was not reduced after treatment with 3BmAb-6BFF. The other animals were vaccinated weekly for nine weeks, and serum samples were collected to detect 3ABC-antibody titers. The results showed that 3ABC-antibody production was delayed and the positive antibody rates were lower when vaccination was carried out using vaccines treated with 3BmAb-6BFF compared with untreated vaccines. The findings of this study suggest that it is possible to reduce NSPs using a mAb-sepharose conjugant in FMD vaccines without reducing their efficacy.