Is elimination of HCV possible in a country with low diagnostic rate and moderate HCV prevalence?: The case of Greece.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The treatment of hepatitis C (HCV) with interferon (IFN)-free direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) is anticipated to change the future burden of disease. The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of IFN-free DAAs on HCV-related morbidity and mortality in Greece under different scenarios concerning treatment coverage and primary prevention, including the proposed by World Health Organization Global Hepatitis Strategy. METHODS: A previously described model was used to project the future disease burden up to 2030 under scenarios, which includes treatment based on the combination of pegylated-IFN with ribavirin (base case) and scenarios using DAAs therapies. RESULTS: Under the base case scenario, an increase in HCV-related morbidity and mortality is predicted in Greece (mortality in 2030: +23.6% compared with 2015). If DAAs are used with the same treatment coverage, the number of hepatocellular carcinoma cases and of liver related deaths are predicted to be lower by 4-7% compared with 2015. Under increased treatment coverage (from 2000 treated/year to approximately 5000/year in 2015-2020 and 2500/year subsequently), morbidity and mortality will decrease by 43-53% in 2030 compared with 2015. To achieve the WHO Global Hepatitis Strategy goals, a total number of 86 500 chronic hepatitis C patients will have to be treated during 2015-2030. CONCLUSIONS: Elimination of HCV in Greece by 2030 necessitates great improvements in primary prevention, implementation of large screening programs and high treatment coverage.

Predicted effects of treatment for HCV infection vary among European countries.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The dynamics of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, as well as screening practices and access to therapy, vary among European countries. It is important to determine the magnitude of the effects of such differences on incidence and mortality of infection. We compared the dynamics of infection and screening and treatment practices among Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom. We also assessed the effects of treatment with pegylated interferon and additional effects of triple therapy with protease inhibitors. METHODS: We created a country-specific Markov model of HCV progression based on published epidemiologic data (on HCV prevalence, screening, genotype, alcohol consumption among patients, and treatments) and reports of competitive and hepatocellular carcinoma mortality for the 6 countries. The model was used to predict the incidence of HCV-related cirrhosis and its mortality until 2021 for each country. RESULTS: From 2002 to 2011, antiviral therapy reduced the cumulative incidence of cirrhosis by 7.1% and deaths by 3.4% overall. Reductions in incidence and mortality values ranged from 4.0% and 1.9%, respectively, in Italy to 16.3% and 9.0%, respectively, in France. From 2012 to 2021, antiviral treatment of patients with HCV genotype 1 infection that includes protease inhibitor-based triple therapy will reduce the cumulative incidence of cirrhosis by 17.7% and mortality by 9.7% overall. The smallest reduction is predicted for Italy (incidence reduced by 10.1% and mortality by 5.4%) and the highest is for France (reductions of 34.3% and 20.7%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Although HCV infection is treated with the same therapies in different countries, the effects of the therapies on morbidity and mortality vary significantly. In addition to common guidelines that are based on virologic response-guided therapy, there is a need for public health policies based on population-guided therapy.

A viral kinetic study using pegylated interferon alfa-2b and/or lamivudine in patients with chronic hepatitis B/HBeAg negative.

We studied viral dynamic parameters in 44 chronic hepatitis B/hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)(-) patients treated with pegylated interferon alfa-2b (PEG-IFN) 100 or 200 microg weekly or lamivudine 100 mg daily or the combination of PEG-IFN 100 or 200 microg with lamivudine. Patients receiving PEG-IFN monotherapy exhibited viral load oscillations between weekly injections, which were resolved by the addition of lamivudine. The median pharmacological delay was estimated at 4.1, 5.8, and 1.8 hours in PEG-IFN monotherapy, PEG-IFN 100/200 microg + lamivudine, and lamivudine monotherapy, respectively (P = .44). The median half-life of free virus was 12.7 hours (range, 2.4-69.2 hours). The mean antiviral effectiveness of PEG-IFN 100/200 microg monotherapy was lower than that of lamivudine (82.6% vs. 96.4%; P = .005). The mean effectiveness of PEG-IFN 100 microg + lamivudine and PEG-IFN 200 microg + lamivudine was 92.8% and 94.4%, respectively. The half-life of infected cells ranged from 2.7 to 75 days. The median half-life of infected cells in patients receiving the combination regimens of PEG-IFN and lamivudine was similar to that of lamivudine patients (5.0 days vs. 6.0 days, P = .77). In conclusion, the addition of pegylated interferon alfa-2b in lamivudine treatment was found to neither enhance the potency of blocking HBV production nor the decay rates of infected cells. Supplementary material for this article can be found on the HEPATOLOGY website (http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0270-9139/suppmat/index.html).