Application of logistic differential equation models for early warning of infectious diseases in Jilin Province.

BACKGROUND: There is still a relatively serious disease burden of infectious diseases and the warning time for different infectious diseases before implementation of interventions is important. The logistic differential equation models can be used for predicting early warning of infectious diseases. The aim of this study is to compare the disease fitting effects of the logistic differential equation (LDE) model and the generalized logistic differential equation (GLDE) model for the first time using data on multiple infectious diseases in Jilin Province and to calculate the early warning signals for different types of infectious diseases using these two models in Jilin Province to solve the disease early warning schedule for Jilin Province throughout the year. METHODS: Collecting the incidence of 22 infectious diseases in Jilin Province, China. The LDE and GLDE models were used to calculate the recommended warning week (RWW), the epidemic acceleration week (EAW) and warning removed week (WRW) for acute infectious diseases with seasonality, respectively. RESULTS: Five diseases were selected for analysis based on screening principles: hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), shigellosis, mumps, Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), and scarlet fever. The GLDE model fitted the above diseases better (0.80 ≤ R2 ≤ 0.94, P <  0. 005) than the LDE model. The estimated warning durations (per year) of the LDE model for the above diseases were: weeks 12-23 and 40-50; weeks 20-36; weeks 15-24 and 43-52; weeks 26-34; and weeks 16-25 and 41-50. While the durations of early warning (per year) estimated by the GLDE model were: weeks 7-24 and 36-51; weeks 13-37; weeks 11-26 and 39-54; weeks 23-35; and weeks 12-26 and 40-50. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the LDE model, the GLDE model provides a better fit to the actual disease incidence data. The RWW appeared to be earlier when estimated with the GLDE model than the LDE model. In addition, the WRW estimated with the GLDE model were more lagged and had a longer warning time.

Clinical effectiveness of the Eruption Guidance Appliances in treating malocclusion in the mixed dentition: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIM: To evaluate the clinical effectiveness of the eruption guidance appliances (EGAs) in treating malocclusion in the early mixed dentition. DESIGN: Electronic databases were comprehensively searched for the eligibility literature of the EGA treatment for a period spanning from the earliest available date in each database up to July 2021. Randomized controlled trials, controlled clinical trials, and prospective and retrospective cohort studies were included in the present review. The quality of clinical trials was assessed according to the Cochrane Collaboration's tools (RoB2.0 and ROBINS-I), whereas cohort studies were based on the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). The data were gathered and synthesized with the Stata software (version 12). RESULTS: The screen yielded 436 articles, of which 17 papers were potentially eligible, and 7 articles from 3 studies (1 RCT, 1 CCT, and 1 PCS) were qualified for the final review and analysis. The meta-analysis showed both favorable dentoalveolar and skeletal changes in short term. Both overjet and overbite had a significant decrease after treatment (MD = -2.38 mm, 95% CI: -2.82 to -1.94, p < .001, and MD = -2.43 mm, 95% CI: -3.52 to -1.35, p < .001, respectively), and SNB increased significantly by 0.73 degrees (95% CI: 0.17-1.28, p = .01). After the retention period, however, overbite had a significant increase of 0.88mm, which indicated the occurrence of a relapse (95% CI: 0.60-1.16, p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: According to the existing evidence, the EGA treatment is effectively correcting overjet and overbite in the early mixed dentition in short term; furthermore, high-quality and long-term studies are warranted to determine its long-term effectiveness.

Relative transmissibility of hand, foot and mouth disease from male to female individuals.

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has spread widely and leads to high disease burden in many countries. However, relative transmissibility from male to female individuals remains unclear. HFMD surveillance database was built in Shenzhen City from 2013 to 2017. An intersex transmission susceptible-infectious-recovered model was developed to calculate the transmission relative rate among male individuals, among female individuals, from male to female and from female to male. Two indicators, ratio of transmission relative rate (Rß) and relative transmissibility index (RTI), were developed to assess the relative transmissibility of male vs. female. During the study period, 270 347 HFMD cases were reported in the city, among which 16 were death cases with a fatality of 0.0059%. Reported incidence of total cases, male cases and female cases was 0.0057 (range: 0.0036-0.0058), 0.0052 (range: 0.0032-0.0053) and 0.0044 (range: 0.0026-0.0047), respectively. The difference was statistically significant between male and female (t = 3.046, P = 0.002). Rß of male vs. female, female vs. female, from female to male vs. female and from male to female vs. female was 7.69, 1.00, 1.74 and 7.13, respectively. RTI of male vs. female, female vs. female, from female to male vs. female and from male to female vs. female was 3.08, 1.00, 1.88 and 1.43, respectively. Transmissibility of HFMD is different between male and female individuals. Male cases seem to be more transmissible than female.

Seasonality of the transmissibility of hand, foot and mouth disease: a modelling study in Xiamen City, China.

This study attempts to figure out the seasonality of the transmissibility of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). A mathematical model was established to calculate the transmissibility based on the reported data for HFMD in Xiamen City, China from 2014 to 2018. The transmissibility was measured by effective reproduction number (Reff) in order to evaluate the seasonal characteristics of HFMD. A total of 43 659 HFMD cases were reported in Xiamen, for the period 2014 to 2018. The median of annual incidence was 221.87 per 100 000 persons (range: 167.98/100,000-283.34/100 000). The reported data had a great fitting effect with the model (R2 = 0.9212, P < 0.0001), it has been shown that there are two epidemic peaks of HFMD in Xiamen every year. Both incidence and effective reproduction number had seasonal characteristics. The peak of incidence, 1-2 months later than the effective reproduction number, occurred in Summer and Autumn, that is, June and October each year. Both the incidence and transmissibility of HFMD have obvious seasonal characteristics, and two annual epidemic peaks as well. The peak of incidence is 1-2 months later than Reff.

Estimating the transmissibility of hand, foot, and mouth disease by a dynamic model.

OBJECTIVE: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a serious public health issue in many countries; however, its transmissibility in county-level outbreaks remains unclear. The aim of this study is to estimate the transmissibility of HFMD epidemics on both city level and county level, for a better understanding of the transmission dynamics of HFMD epidemics. STUDY DESIGN: Simulation based on data obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. METHODS: The weekly number of reported HFMD cases from April 2009 to December 2017 in nine regions of Changsha City was collected. A susceptible-infectious-recovered model was used to estimate the transmissibility of HFMD. The reproduction number of reported cases during the ascending (denoted as Rasc) and descending (denoted as Rdes) period was used to describe the transmissibility of HFMD. RESULTS: The Rasc and Rdes for HFMD in Changsha was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.41-1.48) and 0.71 (95% CI: 0.69-0.73), respectively. There was no statistical significance of Rasc values among nine regions (F = 1.056, P = 0.396), nor of Rdes values among nine regions (F = 1.676, P = 0.106). The average Rasc (1.53, 95% CI: 1.46-1.61) from 2009 to 2012 was higher than the one (1.37, 95% CI: 1.34-1.40) from 2013 to 2017 (t = 3.974, P < 0.001), but the average Rdes (0.67, 95% CI: 0.63-0.70) from 2009 to 2012 was lower than the one (0.74, 95% CI: 0.73-0.76) from 2013 to 2017 (t = -3.751, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The epidemic of HFMD in Changsha City is still grim, and integrated strategies should be taken for controlling and preventing HFMD.

Temporal shifts in 24 notifiable infectious diseases in China before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, along with the implementation of public health and social measures (PHSMs), have markedly reshaped infectious disease transmission dynamics. We analysed the impact of PHSMs on 24 notifiable infectious diseases (NIDs) in the Chinese mainland, using time series models to forecast transmission trends without PHSMs or pandemic. Our findings revealed distinct seasonal patterns in NID incidence, with respiratory diseases showing the greatest response to PHSMs, while bloodborne and sexually transmitted diseases responded more moderately. 8 NIDs were identified as susceptible to PHSMs, including hand, foot, and mouth disease, dengue fever, rubella, scarlet fever, pertussis, mumps, malaria, and Japanese encephalitis. The termination of PHSMs did not cause NIDs resurgence immediately, except for pertussis, which experienced its highest peak in December 2023 since January 2008. Our findings highlight the varied impact of PHSMs on different NIDs and the importance of sustainable, long-term strategies, like vaccine development.

Analysis of HFMD Transmissibility Among the Whole Population and Age Groups in a Large City of China.

Background: Hand-Foot-and-Mouth-Disease (HFMD) has been widely spread in Asia, and has result in a high disease burden for children in many countries. However, the dissemination characteristics intergroup and between different age groups are still not clear. In this study, we aim to analyze the differences in the transmissibility of HFMD, in the whole population and among age groups in Shenzhen city, by utilizing mathematical models. Methods: A database that reports HFMD cases in Shenzhen city from January 2010 to December 2017 was collected. In the first stage, a Susceptive-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model was built to fit data of Shenzhen city and its districts, and Reff was used to assess transmissibility in each district. In the second stage, a cross-age groups SIR model was constructed to calculate the difference in transmissibility of reported cases among three age groups of EV71 virus: 0-3 years, 3-5 years, and over 5 years which was denoted as age group 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Results: From 2010 to 2017, 345,807 cases of HFMD were reported in Shenzhen city, with peak incidence in spring and autumn in Shenzhen city and most of its districts each year. Analysis of the EV71 incidence data by age group revealed that age Group 1 have the highest incidence (3.13 ×10-7-2.31 ×10-4) while age group 3 had the lowest incidence (0-3.54 ×10-5). The differences in weekly incidence of EV71 between age groups were statistically significant (t12 = 7.563, P < 0.0001; t23 = 12.420, P < 0.0001; t13 = 16.996, P < 0.0001). The R2 of the SIR model Shenzhen city population-wide HFMD fit for each region was >0.5, and P < 0.001. Reff values were >1 for the vast majority of time and regions, indicating that the HFMD virus has the ability to spread in Shenzhen city over the long-term. Differences in Reff values between regions were judged by using analysis of variance (ANOVA) (F = 0.541, P = 0.744). SiIiRi-SjIjRj models between age groups had R2 over 0.7 for all age groups and P <0.001. The Reff values between groups show that the 0-2 years old group had the strongest transmissibility (median: 2.881, range: 0.017-9.897), followed by the over 5 years old group (median: 1.758, range: 1.005-5.279), while the 3-5 years old group (median: 1.300, range: 0.005-1.005) had the weakest transmissibility of the three groups. Intra-group transmissibility was strongest in the 0-2 years age group (median: 1.787, range: 0-9.146), followed by Group 1 to Group 2 (median: 0.287, range: 0-1.988) and finally Group 1 to Group 3 (median: 0.287, range: 0-1.988). Conclusion: The incidence rate of HFMD is high in Shenzhen city. In the data on the incidence of EV71 in each age group, the highest incidence was in the 0-2 years age group, and the lowest incidence was in the over 5 years age group. The differences in weekly incidence rate of EV71 among age groups were statistically significant. Children with the age of 0-2 years had the highest transmissibility.

Transmissibility of hand, foot, and mouth disease in 97 counties of China.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a serious disease burden in the Asia-Pacific region, including China. This study calculated the transmissibility of HFMD at county levels in Jiangsu Province, China, analyzed the differences of transmissibility and explored the possible influencing factors of its transmissibility. We built a mathematical model for seasonal characteristics of HFMD, estimated the effective reproduction number (Reff), and compared the incidence rate and transmissibility in different counties using non-parametric tests, rapid cluster analysis and rank-sum ratio in 97 counties in Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2020. The average daily incidence rate was between 0 and 4 per 100,000 people in Jiangsu Province from 2015-2020. The Quartile of Reff in Jiangsu Province from 2015 to 2020 was 1.54 (0.49, 2.50). Rugao District and Jianhu District had the highest transmissibility according to the rank-sum ratio. Reff generally decreased in 2017 and increased in 2018 in most counties, and the median level of Reff was the lowest in 2017 (P < 0.05). The transmissibility was different in 97 counties in Jiangsu Province. The reasons for the differences may be related to the climate, demographic characteristics, virus subtypes, vaccination, hygiene and other infectious diseases.

Study on the interaction between different pathogens of Hand, foot and mouth disease in five regions of China.

Objectives: This study aims to explore the interaction of different pathogens in Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) by using a mathematical epidemiological model and the reported data in five regions of China. Methods: A cross-regional dataset of reported HFMD cases was built from four provinces (Fujian Province, Jiangsu province, Hunan Province, and Jilin Province) and one municipality (Chongqing Municipality) in China. The subtypes of the pathogens of HFMD, including Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16), enteroviruses A71 (EV-A71), and other enteroviruses (Others), were included in the data. A mathematical model was developed to fit the data. The effective reproduction number (R eff ) was calculated to quantify the transmissibility of the pathogens. Results: In total, 3,336,482 HFMD cases were collected in the five regions. In Fujian Province, the R eff between CV-A16 and EV-A71&CV-A16, and between CV-A16 and CV-A16&Others showed statistically significant differences (P < 0.05). In Jiangsu Province, there was a significant difference in R eff (P < 0.05) between the CV-A16 and Total. In Hunan Province, the R eff between CV-A16 and EV-A71&CV-A16, between CV-A16 and Total were significant (P < 0.05). In Chongqing Municipality, we found significant differences of the R eff (P < 0.05) between CV-A16 and CV-A16&Others, and between Others and CV-A16&Others. In Jilin Province, significant differences of the R eff (P < 0.05) were found between EV-A71 and Total, and between Others and Total. Conclusion: The major pathogens of HFMD have changed annually, and the incidence of HFMD caused by others and CV-A16 has surpassed that of EV-A71 in recent years. Cross-regional differences were observed in the interactions between the pathogens.

Surveillance, Epidemiology and Impact of EV-A71 Vaccination on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Nanchang, China, 2010-2019.

After the first national-scale outbreak of Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in China, a national surveillance network was established. Here we described the epidemiology and pathogenic profile of HFMD and the impact of EV-A71 vaccination on pathogen spectrum of enteroviruses in the southeastern Chinese city of Nanchang during 2010-2019. A total of 7,951 HFMD cases from sentinel hospitals were included, of which 4,800 EV-positive cases (60.4%) were identified by real-time RT-PCR. During 2010-2012, enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) was the main causative agent of HFMD, causing 63.1% of cases, followed by 19.3% cases associated with coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16). Since 2013, the proportion of other enteroviruses has increased dramatically, with the sub genotype D3 strain of Coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6) replacing the dominance of EV-A71. These genetically diverse native strains of CV-A6 have co-transmitted and co-evolved in Nanchang. Unlike EV-A71 and CV-A16, most CV-A6 infections were concentrated in autumn and winter. The incidence of EV-A71 infection negatively correlated with EV-A71 vaccination (r = -0.990, p = 0.01). And severe cases sharply declined as the promotion of EV-A71 vaccines. After 2-year implementation of EV-A71 vaccination, EV-A71 is no longer detected from the reported HFMD cases in Nanchang. In conclusion, EV-A71 vaccination changed the pattern of HFMD epidemic, and CV-A6 replaced the dominance of EV-A71 over time.

Early warning of hand, foot, and mouth disease transmission: A modeling study in mainland, China.

BACKGROUND: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a global infectious disease; particularly, it has a high disease burden in China. This study was aimed to explore the temporal and spatial distribution of the disease by analyzing its epidemiological characteristics, and to calculate the early warning signals of HFMD by using a logistic differential equation (LDE) model. METHODS: This study included datasets of HFMD cases reported in seven regions in Mainland China. The early warning time (week) was calculated using the LDE model with the key parameters estimated by fitting with the data. Two key time points, "epidemic acceleration week (EAW)" and "recommended warning week (RWW)", were calculated to show the early warning time. RESULTS: The mean annual incidence of HFMD cases per 100,000 per year was 218, 360, 223, 124, and 359 in Hunan Province, Shenzhen City, Xiamen City, Chuxiong Prefecture, Yunxiao County across the southern regions, respectively and 60 and 34 in Jilin Province and Longde County across the northern regions, respectively. The LDE model fitted well with the reported data (R2 > 0.65, P < 0.001). Distinct temporal patterns were found across geographical regions: two early warning signals emerged in spring and autumn every year across southern regions while one early warning signals in summer every year across northern regions. CONCLUSIONS: The disease burden of HFMD in China is still high, with more cases occurring in the southern regions. The early warning of HFMD across the seven regions is heterogeneous. In the northern regions, it has a high incidence during summer and peaks in June every year; in the southern regions, it has two waves every year with the first wave during spring spreading faster than the second wave during autumn. Our findings can help predict and prepare for active periods of HFMD.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease in Changsha City, China, 2009-2017: a new method to analyse the epidemiological characteristics of the disease.

Objectives: By adopting a new method, this study aimed to analyse the epidemiological characteristics of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in nine districts and counties (cities) of Changsha City, China, from 2009 to 2017.Methods: The reported HFMD cases were collected in Changsha from 2009 to 2017. The traditional descriptive method and a new method (index system) including six indices (richness index N, Simpson diversity index D, Shannon diversity index H, Berger-Parker dominance index d, Shannon evenness index E, and Morisita-Horn similarity index C) were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Changsha.Results: There were 214155 HFMD reported in Changsha during the study period. The incidence of the disease was higher in even-numbered years (2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016) than in uneven-numbered years (2009, 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2017), with two peaks in May to June and October to November every year. The age of onset was mainly from 0 to 5 years old, and the death was mainly from 0 to 2 years old. According to occupational classification, districts and counties (cities) had a high degree of similarity of the composition of HFMD, and there was no regional difference.Conclusions: Changsha had a yearly increasing trend of HFMD from 2009 to 2017, and the key population for prevention and control was children aged in 0-5 years old. Seasonal distribution of high incidence and peak incidence were occurred in even-numbered years. The sub-regions of the city shared moderate diversity and high similarity of occupational distribution of HFMD.

Meteorological Factors and the Transmissibility of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Xiamen City, China.

Background: As an emerging infectious disease, the prevention and control of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) poses a significant challenge to the development of public health in China. In this study, we aimed to explore the mechanism of the seasonal transmission characteristics of HFMD and to reveal the correlation and potential path between key meteorological factors and the transmissibility of HFMD. Methods: Combined with daily meteorological data such as average temperature, average relative humidity, average wind velocity, amount of precipitation, average air pressure, evaporation capacity, and sunshine duration, a database of HFMD incidence and meteorological factors was established. Spearman rank correlation was used to calculate the correlation between the various meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD. The effective reproduction number (R eff ) of HFMD was used as an intermediate variable to further quantify the dynamic relationship between the average temperature and R eff . Results: A total of 43,659 cases of HFMD were reported in Xiamen from 2014 to 2018. There was a significantly positive correlation between the average temperature and the incidence of HFMD (r = 0.596, p < 0.001), and a significantly negative correlation between the average air pressure and the incidence of HFMD (r = -0.511, p < 0.001). There was no correlation between the average wind velocity (r = 0.045, p > 0.05) or amount of precipitation (r = 0.043, p > 0.05) and incidence. There was a temperature threshold for HFMD's transmissibility. Owing to the seasonal transmission characteristics of HFMD in Xiamen, the temperature threshold of HFMD's transmissibility was 13.4-18.4°C and 14.5-29.3°C in spring and summer and in autumn and winter, respectively. Conclusions: HFMD's transmissibility may be affected by the average temperature; the temperature threshold range of transmissibility in autumn and winter is slightly wider than that in spring and summer. Based on our findings, we suggest that the relevant epidemic prevention departments should pay close attention to temperature changes in Xiamen to formulate timely prevention strategies before the arrival of the high-risk period.

Interaction analysis on transmissibility of main pathogens of hand, foot, and mouth disease: A modeling study (a STROBE-compliant article).

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has spread widely and led to high disease burden in many countries. In this study, we aimed to analyze the interaction of the main pathogens of HFMD using a mathematical model.A dataset on reported HFMD cases was collected from April, 2009 to December, 2017 in Changsha City. A long-term etiological surveillance was conducted focusing on the pathogens of the disease including enterovirus A71 (EV71), coxsachievirus A16 (CA16), and other enteroviruses. A susceptible-infectious-recovered model was adopted to calculate the reproduction number during the ascending period of reported cases (defined as Rasc) and the descending period (defined as Rdes).About 214,178 HFMD cases (including clinically diagnosed cases and confirmed cases) were reported in Changsha City, among which 31 were death cases with a fatality of 0.01%. The number of reported HFMD cases increased yearly with a Linear model of "f(t) = 18542.68 + 1628.91t" where f(t) and t referred to number of reported cases and sequence of year, respectively. The fatality of the disease decreased yearly with a linear model of "f(t) = - 0.012 + 0.083/t". About 5319 stool or anal swab specimens were collected from the reported cases. Among them, 1201 were tested EV71 positive, 836 were CA16 positive, and 1680 were other enteroviruses positive. Rasc and Rdes of HFMD was 1.34 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-1.40) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.69-0.76), respectively. EV71 and CA16 interacted with each other, and the interaction between EV71 and other enteroviruses and the interaction between CA16 and other enteroviruses were both directional. However, during the reported cases decreasing period, interactions only occurred between EV71 and other enteroviruses and between CA16 and other enteroviruses. These interactions all decreased Rasc but increased Rdes of affected pathogens.The interactions of the pathogens exist in Changsha City. The effective reproduction number of the affected pathogen is adjusted and verges to 1 by the interaction.