Validation of 1,3-butadiene exposure estimates for workers at a synthetic rubber plant.

PURPOSE: This investigation assessed the validity of estimates of exposure to 1,3-butadiene (BD) developed for a plant included in a study of mortality among synthetic rubber industry workers. The estimates were developed without using historical measurement data and have not been validated previously. METHODS: Personal BD measurements came from an exposure-monitoring program initiated in 1977. For each job, we computed the year-specific difference between the BD estimate and the mean of BD measurements. We also computed rank correlation coefficients and calculated the mean, across all measurements, of the difference between the estimate and the measurement. RESULTS: The mean BD concentration was 5.2 ppm for 4978 measurements and 4.7 ppm for the corresponding estimates. The mean difference between estimates and measurements was -0.50 ppm (standard deviation, 26.5 ppm) overall and ranged from -227.9 to +27.0 ppm among all 306 job/year combinations. Estimates were correlated with measurements for all 306 combinations (rank correlation coefficient, r=0.45, p<0.0001), for 82 combinations pertaining to jobs that were well-defined by a specific set of tasks and typically found in styrene-BD rubber (SBR) plants (r=0.81, p<0.0001), for 70 combinations pertaining to jobs that were well-defined but not typical (r=0.29, p=0.01) and for 92 combinations pertaining to poorly-defined jobs typically found in SBR plants (r=0.56, <0.0001). Estimates were not correlated with measurements for poorly defined jobs not typically found in SBR plants (r=0.01, p=0.93). For well-defined typical SBR jobs with measurement means that were over 7.0 ppm, estimates were consistently lower than measurements. CONCLUSIONS: Possible reasons for differences between estimates and measurements included faulty assumptions used in developing BD estimates, unstable or nonrepresentive measurements and errors in linking measurement data to the job-exposure matrix. Exposure misclassification may have been more severe for subjects from the validation study plant than for subjects from other plants in the mortality study. BD estimates for typical SBR jobs, which comprise most operations at all but one of the plants in the mortality study, appeared to be useful for ranking workers by cumulative exposure. Uncertainty analyses would enhance the utility of the BD exposure estimates for quantitative risk assessment.

Historical estimation of exposure to 1,3-butadiene, styrene, and dimethyldithiocarbamate among synthetic rubber workers.

Quantitative estimates of exposure to 1,3-butadiene (BD), styrene (STY), and dimethyldithiocarbamate (DMDTC) were developed for a follow-up study of workers at six North American synthetic rubber plants. Procedures entailed identifying tasks and jobs involving exposure, identifying factors influencing historical changes in exposure potential, and using mathematical models to calculate job- and time-period-specific exposures. Exposure metrics included 8-hour time-weighted average (TWA) intensity, the annual number of peak exposures (BD: >100 ppm, STY: >50 ppm) and TWA intensity below and above the peak threshold. The 5th and 95th percentiles of the approximate probability distribution of each exposure estimate served as its 90% uncertainty interval. Job- and year-specific estimates were linked with subjects' work histories to obtain cumulative exposure indices. Exposure estimates varied among tasks, jobs, plants, and time periods. BD TWAs were approximately 10 ppm during the 1940s-1960s and declined during the 1970s and 1980s. STY TWAs were always <2 ppm. DMDTC exposure began in the 1950s, was high through the 1960s, and later declined. BD peak exposure accounted for a large proportion of cumulative BD exposure, whereas almost none of the STY exposure was experienced at levels >50 ppm. Exposure indices were correlated. Exposures were higher than previously estimated. Multiple correlations among DMDTC, BD, and STY exposure estimates make it difficult to estimate agent-specific effects. Limitations of the methodology include the potential inaccuracy of the estimates, the lack of adequate industrial hygiene data to validate the estimates, the additional inaccuracy of linkage with poorly specified job groups, and the potential for differential exposure misclassification because the jobs and work areas where excess leukemia mortality occurred were well-known at the time of this study. Nevertheless, the new exposure estimates were highly correlated with the old, yielding equivalent exposure ranking of workers and were comparable to limited industrial hygiene data published by NIOSH.